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Paddy Brennan apparently not very confident regarding Imperial Commander’s chances in the race.
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What evidence?
To say the Hennessey has not worked out is crazy when:
None of the first 3, Diamond Harry, Burton Port and Denman, have been seen since.
The 4th The Tother One is a dog, who runs one good race a season, usually (like the Hennessey) early in the season.
5th Niche Market is being prepared for the Grand National.
6th Carruthers (who carried 10-0 in the Hennessey) was running an excellent race in the Totesport National Trial (under 11-6), still going well on the turn for home, but palpably not staying the trip of 3 1/2 miles on heavy.
7th Taranis, who’s first race of the season was at Newbury, is known to be best fresh, fell on his only other start.
8th Weird Al has not seen since.
9th Hills Of Aran has lost his enthusiasm for racing this season.
Last home, 10th Silver By Nature carried 10-0 in the Hennessey, won the Totesport National Trial in impressive style by 15 lengths under 11-12.Why not look at what has actually happened?
PMSL
Paul Nicholls, at the Boylesports preview, when asked on the likely state of the ground on GC day:
“The new track never gets watered in the autumn. The old track gets loads of water and will always ride slower on the first two days.
Quite often when they run the Argento Chase, more often than not the ground that day is unraceable, heavy ground (on the new track).
I walked the track that day and it was very nearly good ground – then in January. Unless they get a lot of rain on the Friday it can’t be anything other than good, I can’t see them watering that track. If it doesn’t rain it will be on the good side I’d say”
Weird Al will go for the Gold Cup and not the Ryanair.
I know they think the world of the horse and although at first glance he would have no chance on the ratings, I think that he’s so fragile that if he’s currently fit and well they feel it might be the only chance they get to have a crack at a race they’ve always felt he could win one day.
Paddy Brennan apparently not very confident regarding Imperial Commander’s chances in the race.
Since when? Do you have links to the NTD stable?
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Really? You have not heard the interviews I have. I got the impression he is riding Kauto Star out of loyalty. I heard from a journalist who had interviewed their trainer, Nicholls prefers Denman
Ruby seemed quite sweet on Kauto Star when interviewed by Angus McNae on RUK earlier in the week. Indeed, the declaration that he’s ‘looking forward to riding him’ in conjunction with a wry smile indicated that he thinks he’s got more than half a chance.
Really? You have not heard the interviews I have. I got the impression he is riding Kauto Star out of loyalty. I heard from a journalist who had interviewed their trainer, Nicholls prefers Denman
Ruby seemed quite sweet on Kauto Star when interviewed by Angus McNae on RUK earlier in the week. Indeed, the declaration that he’s ‘looking forward to riding him’ in conjunction with a wry smile indicated that he thinks he’s got more than half a chance.
I got a completely different impression from the same interview and others AJ. I think every jockey has to say stuff like "looking forward to riding him". But something that both Ruby and Paul have said is "Kauto has probably not got the speed he once had" (or words to that effect). That suggests Kauto has not been working as well at home as he was last year. So -although it could be that as an older horse is still effective at a longer trip- that is yet to be proved. Therefore – in conjunction with the King George run – must be a big negative. The "wry smile" might be something to do with hoping for the best with his favourite horse of all time. I think punters have to read between the lines and form an impression, rather than take what connections say as gospel. We all will see different things in quotes. (Thumbs up)
I got the impression from listening to Jonathan Powell at a Preview Meeeting – that he got the impression from Paul Nicholls: That Denman is working as good as he ever has. Yet Kauto -although working better than Denman (he always has) Kauto is not working as well as Kauto used to work.
Value Is EverythingI think anyone who backed Kauto Star at the 12/1 immediately after the King George has a good value bet. But the price available now is too short.
Value Is EverythingI agree. Kauto is way too short now. Does anybody have an inkling on what the money for Weird Al is based? 40-1 and more in to 20-1 in a lot of places!!!?
my mum always backs the outsiders each way she has weird al at long odds and albertas run
vf
Tend to get a big priced horse coming third; missed Mon Mome last year, annoyingly, after deciding to back all the 100/1 horses and then not doing so. May back Synchronised ew if he runs.
I agree. Kauto is way too short now. Does anybody have an inkling on what the money for Weird Al is based? 40-1 and more in to 20-1 in a lot of places!!!?
Optimism. He should have run in the Ryanair.
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The ‘money’ for Weird Al will be little more than a reaction to Ian Williams’s confirmation that he’s being aimed at the Gold Cup.
I don’t see why Weird Al can’t run a decent race. I mean his Hennessy run was disappointing, but his form before that is fairly impressive. His 40’s are very good value.
Don’t get me wrong, i’m not going for him i’ve got my picks sussed…
Pandorama and Midnight Chase as my key fancies and Carruthers as my outsider…
But there’d be no harm in giving him a bit of attention. This years Gold Cup has suffered some serious losses in Diamond Harry, Burton Point and others being withdrawn, but we have still been left with a really, really good race. Much better than last years renewal.
Pretty sure Kauto will start favourite.
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