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Yes tis a real pity Weapon’s Amnesty isn’t able to participate, he hacked up in the RSA last year and looked to have the enormous potential. I still think the Irish horses will give a good account of themselves though.
Kempes is still very unexposed at this sort of trip and who knows what he may be capable of.
I’d be even sweeter on Pandorama though. He seems to have it all and has STAR written all over him imo. He travels, he stays, he’s tough as nails. As long as the word ‘soft’ appears in the going description Noel Meade will let him take his chance and he has a massive chance in my opinion.
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if you back kempes massini man you will collect your winnings, he was very impressive in ireland in his last race, ive never seen a horse quicken on heavy ground the way he did, it proves he has come to hand at the right time, he can only improve again . his trainer said he can run on any ground and if it dries out he will take some beating. he is improving all the time, i think kauto star, pandorama and what a friend will fight out the places on the better ground.
Really? You have not heard the interviews I have. I got the impression he is riding Kauto Star out of loyalty. I heard from a journalist who had interviewed their trainer, Nicholls prefers Denman
Ruby seemed quite sweet on Kauto Star when interviewed by Angus McNae on RUK earlier in the week. Indeed, the declaration that he’s ‘looking forward to riding him’ in conjunction with a wry smile indicated that he thinks he’s got more than half a chance.
I’ve not seen the interview but generally when someone gives a "wry smile" it’s not a positive indicator! It’s usually an ironic expression.
Weird Al went in to the Hennessey as an improver with potential to go on to better things. Disappointed badly there. Money is probably a lot to do with a wind operation, and that is seen by the media and some punters as being reborn. It can bring improvement or return to form. Actually, 40/1 would be a decent price if guaranteed softish ground, but is unproven on good. Too early to take that price (imo).
Value Is EverythingThe Weird Al situation underlines the value of the NRNB concession. I have Weird Al and Kempes NRNB at 50-1 and Tidal Bay at 40-1, plus a load of non-runners where I got my money back. Small amounts but worth having.
In the light of Tuffers’ clever reading of Henderson’s remarks on Binocular, I am wondering what to make of the comments from Nicholls and Walsh that Kauto has lost some of his speed.
I recall prior to the King George, Kauto was ‘mad fresh’ and there was no sign of aging. Then immediately after the KG, Nicholls said Kauto might be a bit slower. Then a bit later he revealed Kauto’s minor infection. So at this point, Nicholls might have revised his opinion on speed back to his former position. However, he hasn’t retracted as far as I know, and the ‘slightly slower’ opinion has now been endorsed by Walsh.
It seems to me a possible explanation is caution on their part. With Kauto’s form looking less than solid they would look foolish to come out very bullish at this stage. However, it is also quite likely that they have access to evidence that we can’t see on his speed, and it is possible they have detected signs of aging.
Perhaps people who were at the talks they have been giving recently might interpret their remarks differently. It would be interesting to know.
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i backed denman when he beat kauto and its obvious he isnt the horse he was now. he gave 2st to diamond harry but i think harry would of still won had he beem off level weights. i saw harry carry 11st 12lb on heavy and he pulled clear of his rivals, harry could of carried 14st that day. he beat burton port that had finished in front of long run and the form has worked out well with long runs king george.. i have come up with kempes who should win on his run in ireland but i hope A.P.doesnt ride him in his attacking style and just waits to pick them off.i would of preffered ruby to of rode kempes.
As there have been a few comments about Weird Al, I feel I ought to mention that my gut feeling is there is more hope than expectation from the stable. He hasn’t had the gun put to his head at home as the feeling is he might be best fresh although that means he also might be undercooked. The ground shouldn’t be a problem though.
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Its much more open than for a few years but I just have a feeling it might be an outsider that wins this time round. All the old boys (past winners) have to be respected on their best but its hard to know if they can bring their A game this time.
Midnight Chase is as genuine and tough as they come …if he is good enough he will win and I know that sounds like a silly thing to say but I mean nothing will get past him …his last run was astounding having lost a shoe at the final fence he dropped back quite a bit but got back up on the line it showed immense speed courage an determination and to me was one of the best performances this season.
What A Friend is so much better than he has shown this year. The good ground and a pair of blinkers and Daryl Jacob will bring about a vast improvement. His wins in Grade 1s last season were impressive and he won with something to spare. I dont think he has been woken up yet this time round and the run behind Noland was a stroll which he would have won if he hadnt been switched late on. He will be woken up on Friday thats for sure and I could see him romping home at amazing odds.
You could do worse than a small speculative reversed forecast on Midnight Chase x What A Friend just for a bit of fun ..but on this ground it could well happen and the reward would be big. Best of Luck
I notice Mr Nicholls has been consistently bullish on What A Friend, despite his disappointing form so far. Not beating Noland is hardly Gold Cup form, so I guess the only hope is good ground, but then he will have to beat Kempes and Kauto. A tall order IMO.
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that noland race didnt bring the best out of what a friend it looked as though the jockey didnt want to win on the 2nd horse swerving around like he did, its a better horse than that and had he won he would be a lot shorter price than he is now, hes a better horse on faster ground yes i dont think weve seen the best of him. he nearly beat denman but shied at the fence when coming to challenge, a lively outsider at 40/1
Dunno about IC at the minute, NTD’s horses didnt run at all well today.
It does concern me. I’ve had a number of doubles & trebles with IC in. After Quevega’s win today they’re still v much alive.
Prob not best to judge NTD’s stable form until after tomorrow though.
There are lots of questions but Long Run for me is the only progressive sort in with a major chance.
forecast has changed to heavy rain for friday – with the overcast conditions today and most likely tomorrow how much would it change if we get – as now seems to be forecast – a decent amount on friday.
might suit IC and not midnight chase or might make it just a bit easier to get through.
been keeping a careful eye on the weather and the forecast has just changed
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