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Forecast changed again this morning for tomorrow.
Rain in the early hours and into first part of the morning – then drying up by midday.
Rain not as heavy as forecast yesterday for Friday.
Probably put more ‘soft’ into the going but not too much.IC for me (bets made a few weeks ago), but confidence draining away as NTD’s bad run this week continues.
If it does come up really soft then maybe Pandorama will be in with a shout.
With the ground predicted to get softer, Pandorama is definitely coming into play.
I know I’ve damned him with faint praise before, but I can’t help but have an e/w on him especially as he’s 14s with Hills.
So, that’s three against the field for me!
BlueSky @pghenn.bsky.social
So don't run, just like the others always do
- Total Posts 17716
I’ve had £20 on Imperial Commander at 11/2 and £1 each way on Kempes at 50/1 and 40/1 nrnb (he was available at 66/1 at the time). I’m also gonna have a little each way on China Rock at 33/1.
i wouldnt write of weird al! gallope with him the other day couldnt get within five lengths off him!
A race that includes three former winners of the race, one of the most precocious talents to arrive on these shores and a host of dark horses make this, perhaps not a vintage renewal, but certainly an interesting one.
——————————————————————Defending Champion, Imperial Commander, was successful on his sole outing this term, where he defeated Tidal Bay a shade cosier than the official margin suggests in the Betfair Chase at Haydock in November.
He comes into this race with an excellent record around the track (five wins from six chase starts) and boasts an impressive record when fresh. He arrives here on the back of a near sixteen week break and should not be inconvenienced by the ground – unless Prestbury Park is hit be a deluge of rain, it should have little impact.
He should make a bold bid to retain his crown and connections are fairly bullish, but no 10YO has won the race since Cool Dawn back in 1998 and, with the stable not firing and his racecourse gallops uninspiring, one gets the feeling that he could be vulnerable.
Kauto Star is the undisputed king of his generation. The only horse to regain the Gold Cup. The only horse to win four consecutive King Georges. The only horse to complete the King George / Gold Cup double on more than one occasion. Also a winner of two Tingle Creeks and three Betfair Chases, he has nothing left to prove.
He made a satisfactory comeback when landing his second Champion Chase at Down Royal, defeating future Queen Mother hero Sizing Europe by 4L, with China Rock back in third.
He started a warm favourite to win a record breaking fifth King George, but was well beaten by young pretenders, Long Run and Riverside Theatre.
It’s quite possible that age is finally catching up with him – he has certainly lost a bit of speed – but a closer examination of those races tell us that he is no forlorn hope. Whilst Sizing Europe is clearly most effective at the minimum distance, he certainly stays three miles and has since gone on to land the Champion Chase. The third, China Rock, ran with much credit in the Irish Hennessy. He was perhaps set alight too soon in that race, but was still bang there at the last before tiring to finish fourth.
Kauto Star would arguably have been beaten about 6L in the King George but for blundering at the second last. He wasn’t gaining on Long Run, but was certainly staying on stoutly and would have finished second, ahead of Riverside Theatre in third. That horse has since landed the Ascot Chase impressively.
One could argue that Cheltenham will play more to his strengths these days. He has been something of a Jekyll and Hyde character around Prestbury Park, but is a dual Gold Cup winner and dangerous if allowed to get into a rhythm. It’s not impossible that he could reverse form with Long Run around this track, over this trip, with every possibility that he will improve – fully recovered from a low grade infection and with Ruby Walsh back in the saddle. Any rain, I believe, would benefit.
Denman has an impeccable record around Cheltenham and proved that is still a force to be reckoned with in this race after an admirable performance when attempting to land his third Hennessy.
He can no longer dominate a field in the same fashion when landing this race back in 2008 – and with that has come a relatively poor strike rate of one win in eight starts since – but he could be rejuvenated by a wind operation and has been the subject of some bullish reports.
In my opinion, he hasn’t been seeing out his races since his second Newbury success. If the operation has had the desired effect then he comes here with a big chance. Similar bullish reports were bring made about Master Minded since his operation. All seemed well until he once again disappointed in the Champion Chase.
Denman, like Imperial Commander and Kauto Star, is vulnerable to a younger rival and would prefer softer conditions , but it’s hard to envisage him being out of the first three if reproducing his three previous efforts in the race.
Long Run announced himself on the big stage with a facile win in the King George. He travelled with such ease and his jumping was flawless.
We have seen the likes of Wayward Lad, Desert Orchid and One Man come home in such fashion at Kempton but, for various reasons, they were unable to transfer that level of form to the undulations of Cheltenham.
Nicky Henderson’s star has thus far been unable to produce his very best around Prestbury Park. Unable to get into a similar rhythm, his only defeats in this country have come in the RSA and Paddy Power Chase.
There were perhaps valid excuses for those defeats. He had been in-training without a noticeable break for two years prior to the RSA, while the stable were not quite firing when a disappointing third in the Paddy Power over two miles-five.
Still, his jumping was the main cause for concern on both occasions and that has nothing to do with the aforementioned excuses. The main worry is that he may not be able to get into the same rhythm around an undulating track.
If Yogi Briesner has successfully transformed Long Run into a sound jumper, then that is one problem solved. The other question mark is something that even he can not improve – stamina. One Man and Wayward Lad both succumbed to the hill and Long Run has yet to attack the Cheltenham straight in the same manner he has at Kempton. Again, perhaps there are valid excuses, but it is a question that can only be answered tomorrow.
If Long Run can successfully negotiate the undulations of Cheltenham and stay the extended three miles-two, he will win the 2011 Cheltenham Gold Cup.
For many, Tidal Bay is an interesting outsider and the enigmatic equine professor has come in for much support over the recent weeks.
The ability can not be questioned. The trip and ground will not pose a problem and he loves the undulations of Prestbury Park. The main cause for concern has always been what goes on inside his head.
Brian Hughes has adopted a more sympathetic approach to cajoling the best out of Tidal Bay – a horse who clearly needs his massive ego massaged during a race. He loses plenty of ground at his fences, which he tends to hop rather than jump, but that has not prevented him from winning an Arkle, completing a rare Cheltenham / Aintree double that season.
He is arguably the most talented ‘rogue’ to ever grace the National Hunt scene. Competing in his fifth different race at his fifth consecutive Festival, he has performed with much credit under varying conditions and different trips in every discipline.
If Tidal Bay is within striking distance turning in, he is a massive danger because he has a potent kick and will maintain it right to the finish. Bone idle? Yes. Battle shy? No. If he has to scrap, he will. It’s a matter of whether he feels in the mood to put himself in that position.
The talented What A Friend will be blinkered for the first time tomorrow. The application of headgear had the desired effect on See More Business when he landed the Gold Cup in 1999. What A Friend doesn’t possess the ability of See More Business, but he has more than enough ability to warrant a place in the line-up.
He is another who has been the subject of bullish reports from his trainer, but he is perhaps happier on a flatter track and any rain will wash away what chance he had. He is perhaps overpriced, but it’s hard to see him figuring, although it is quite telling that connections could have rested him for Aintree, but are taking their chance here.
The Irish challenge is headed by Pandorama and Kempes. The former was an impressive winner of the Lexus Chase and, whilst possessing the ideal profile of a Gold Cup winner, will surely need a deluge if he has any chance of success. Three of his four Grade One victories have come in heavy ground and he has yet to prove that he can transfer his ability across the Irish Sea.
Much the same applies to Kempes, who ran out an admirable winner of the Irish Hennessy. His only venture to these shores ended with a disappointing effort in the Supreme Novice Hurdle two years ago. He is unexposed over this trip and has a fair amount of speed to compliment his stamina, having finished second to Hurricane Fly as a juvenile hurdler, with Riverside Theatre and Go Native behind.
Under the current conditions, he is the one I would favour out of the three Irish Challengers, including China Rock.
Carruthers ran a fine race here last year, but has been woefully out of form this campaign, while course specialist, Midnight Chase, takes a massive step up in class from handicap company.
Neptune Collonges was gifted an easy lead in the Cotswold Chase and will struggle to reproduce his fine third in this a few years ago, while Weird Al has something to prove after his disappointing Hennessy effort. He has not been seen since.
——————————————————————
This is the toughest race to judge from the four championship races, in my opinion.
The likes of Imperial Commander, Kauto Star and Denman would normally be considered past their prime to win this, but with question marks over their younger rivals you could not confidently dismiss any of them.
Perhaps Kauto Star is the most vulnerable, but a closer examination of his two efforts this season suggest he is not finished quite yet. Denman has endured a poor strike rate since his finest hour in 2008, but it’s quite possible that a wind operation could bring about enough improvement for him to take this.
Imperial Commander can never be written off when fresh, especially around his beloved Cheltenham.
No 10YO has won the race since 1998, and you have to go back to 1969, when What A Myth landed the spoils, to find a horse further advanced to have won the race. This was six years after Mill House, who became the last 6YO to win the race.
Long Run is at the same stage in his career, although the aforementioned statistic does not tell the entire story because only three 6YOs have contested the race since. The Fellow went agonizingly close in 1991 and nine years later Gloria Victis was tragically killed when falling two out when still in contention. Both, like Long Run, were French-bred.
It takes a leap of faith to expect Long Run to jump with the same fluidity around Cheltenham, but perhaps the biggest worry is the trip. A combination of the two could prove his undoing, but it may be a risk worth taking, granted further improvement.
I’m finding it very hard to confidently predict a winner of this race. Nothing would give me more pleasure if Kauto Star reclaimed the Gold Cup for a second time, but it would be a case of my heart ruling my head – dismiss him at your peril!
1 LONG RUN
2 DENMAN
3 TIDAL BAYi wouldnt write of weird al! gallope with him the other day couldnt get within five lengths off him!
What were you riding?
- Total Posts 17716
I think Imperial is a dead cert tomorrow. No 10yo has won in a gazillion years, the stable’s not doing well, there’s up and comers in the field. He’ll still win though, cause like Bigs Buck proved (when Nicholls top horses were flopping last year) class is class. He’s also had 13 runs less than Kauto for a horse just 1 year younger and that’s why he can do it.
I stand to make a bit more money if Kempes can win it (cause of the odds I took) but Imperial Commander is my favourite jumps horse and I’m praying he wins.
I think my biggest disappointment we be if Long Run gets close or wins, cause he’s a horse who I’m not keen on but If Tidal Bay, Midnight Chase, Denman or Kauto wins I’ll be a happy loser.
I find the statistic that no horse older than 10 has won since 1969 astonishing but there it is, so poor old Denman & Kauto have definitely had it!
I think China Rock can also keep up Presenting’s fine record in the race. Presenting has now had a horse in the first three of the Gold Cup in each of the last five runnings.if you take out everything that is 10yo or over and any 6yo based on stats – it puts a different spin on the race.
still think IC may win as he is so lightly raced
"I’m more worried about him not producing his best than his best not being good enough" Would you back Weird Al based on that assessment?
NH not really my code but may have a dabble tomorrow and would like some assistance please on what might be some shaky theory on just one point – the rate of deterioration of the 3 former winners.
I think we might say the shape of the market ‘contains’ this stat about no horse 10 or older since whenever. Bare stats will always stand to trip you up.
And on the longevity issue we know that, whilst yes there is general deterioration with age, some horses will improve their ratings as veterans and some horses can go on performing competitively until 13, 14, 15 even.
I think there are 3 factors – genetics, constitution and manner of training.
Genetics – I don’t think anyone would dispute that some families are ‘late maturing’. Given time I could probably isolate a late maturing/longevity gene. Pity. I have the impression that french breds, such as KS, tend to mature quickly and not make for good veterans. Would anyone concur?
Constitution – I’d venture to suggest, all other things being equal, that horses more about stamina have a greater tendancy toward longevity. We all know as a general proposition that with age speed wanes and stamina increases. Beyond 10 vitality may be a key factor as a big, strong athletic type without vitality may just become a slow plodding lump but generally there’s likely to be a correlation between stamina and longevity?
Manner of training – Principally, I suppose, miles on the clock.
I think all these factors point to a tentative conclusion that Denman (22 starts) is likely to make for a more effective 11yo than Kauto Star (36 starts).
Long Run’s jumping looks to have improved and I think there’s enough stamina in the pedigree to not have too much concern over it getting the trip. Ok it’s only 6 but it’s another french bred and they mature early, right? But how good was this year’s King George? Part of the answer lies in how far KS has deteriorated now it’s a veteran.
I had a quick look at the times for the last 3 runnings. 2008 was the slowest winning time. You might say Denman’s clocked pretty similar times the last 3 runnings. Was 2008 the slowest going? Like a fast pace, and the wind op, rain would help Denman’s chances.
A fascinating renewal and for sure a changing of the guard year but are the young pretenders ready/good enough? Anyone who just ruled a line through aged 10 and over may discover they got found out by an oversimplification.
NH not really my code but may have a dabble tomorrow and would like some assistance please on what might be some shaky theory on just one point – the rate of deterioration of the 3 former winners.
I think we might say the shape of the market ‘contains’ this stat about no horse 10 or older since whenever. Bare stats will always stand to trip you up.
And on the longevity issue we know that, whilst yes there is general deterioration with age, some horses will improve their ratings as veterans and some horses can go on performing competitively until 13, 14, 15 even.
I think there are 3 factors – genetics, constitution and manner of training.
Genetics – I don’t think anyone would dispute that some families are ‘late maturing’. Given time I could probably isolate a late maturing/longevity gene. Pity. I have the impression that french breds, such as KS, tend to mature quickly and not make for good veterans. Would anyone concur?
Constitution – I’d venture to suggest, all other things being equal, that horses more about stamina have a greater tendancy toward longevity. We all know as a general proposition that with age speed wanes and stamina increases. Beyond 10 vitality may be a key factor as a big, strong athletic type without vitality may just become a slow plodding lump but generally there’s likely to be a correlation between stamina and longevity?
Manner of training – Principally, I suppose, miles on the clock.
I think all these factors point to a tentative conclusion that Denman (22 starts) is likely to make for a more effective 11yo than Kauto Star (36 starts).
Long Run’s jumping looks to have improved and I think there’s enough stamina in the pedigree to not have too much concern over it getting the trip. Ok it’s only 6 but it’s another french bred and they mature early, right? But how good was this year’s King George? Part of the answer lies in how far KS has deteriorated now it’s a veteran.
I had a quick look at the times for the last 3 runnings. 2008 was the slowest winning time. You might say Denman’s clocked pretty similar times the last 3 runnings. Was 2008 the slowest going? Like a fast pace, and the wind op, rain would help Denman’s chances.
A fascinating renewal and for sure a changing of the guard year but are the young pretenders ready/good enough? Anyone who just ruled a line through aged 10 and over may discover they got found out by an oversimplification.
a good summary – i would take IC over denman and kauto any day of the week – and denman has far less miles on the clock. IC even less. Long rung hasnt really performed at chelt and is 6 – i might be very very wrong. IC i have always been very sweet on – is a fantastic horse – fit the profile for a 10yo winner imo.
also agree with the french bred maturing early – but with no form at chelt – take your pick.
one thing is for sure – when i saw a replay of dessies gold cup victory earlier today i was almost in tears (ok i was
) but i was there and have been brought up in the area surrounded by horses – infact look down the finishing straight and you can see Bredon hill.This is a great race and how my late mother knew how good this race is , i dont know, but i know she would be looking down on me saying dessie is going to get up
its a great renewal – old vs new – and there are plenty of very good horses running – it is what it is and thats why im here
The Irish chase form seems to be better than I had expected, from the novices to to 2-mile champion. Evne the 3rd today in the Ryanair would be lowly rated.
So it points to Pandorama and Kempes being overpriced; it’s hardly going to be soft enough for Pandorama, so Kemps will worth a bet. But I’d love to see the Commander win again- Total Posts 17716
With Kauto and Denman both on a downward curve, it’s a straight fight imo, beween the first 2 in the betting, with the rest running for the (distant) places. Nothing else comes close to them, on either form or official ratings.
If Imperial Commander can show more consistency than he’s managed in his last 10 races, he’s head and shoulders above everything in the field – with the one exception of the young pretender. Barring accidents, Long Run ought to win this comfortably, with his only conceivable danger providing a healthy dual forecast.
Imvho, of course.
Hmm….
I don’t think this will be Long Run’s day. He isn’t ready for this test IMHO and I’m not sure he ever will be a Gold cup winner. King George is another matter. I can see him making mistakes on that ground as, although he has pace, I really feel cut allows him to get into a rhythm.
I WANT to back Kauto Star as he is such an epic creature…if any horse can come back and win the race a third time having been dethroned twice, it’s him.
I guess money talks, though, and I’m gonna have £20 squids on Imperial as I think he is the best horse and has been campaigned with this race in mind all year. I can see him quickening away and others struggling to get within 5 lengths.
I think Kempes is an interesting contender – improving horse on preferred ground.
1. Imperial Commander
2. Kauto Star (I can’t help myself!!!)
3. KempesPlease let it be a corker
Zip
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I can see (like last year) a lot of people will be angry tomorrow. Long Run backers…bookies are loving it.
) but i was there and have been brought up in the area surrounded by horses – infact look down the finishing straight and you can see Bredon hill.
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