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The sore Horsemen of the Apocalypse: mount your high horses at Leicester, slip off quietly at Newbury
Trainer
Andrew Balding stoutly refused to declare his runner for tomorrow’s controversial Leicester race worth £7,000 less than it was ‘supposed to be’ according to the Horsemen’s tariff. Yet Mr Balding’s strong feelings about defending the tariff seem to have been set aside at declaration time for tomorrow’s Totescoop6 Spring Cup at Newbury where he runs Brick Red in a race offering almost £14,000 less than the tariff level.
Mr Balding said, “I’m pretty strong on the tariffs, but we have to judge every race on its merits. It’s still a £30,000 race and it’s just down the road. It’s tough for older horses with the programme. He missed the Lincoln and we’ve got no options to get him handicapped for races like the Hunt Cup at Royal Ascot.”
Is there a more staunch advocate of tariffs than Mark Johnston? Yet Mr Johnston has Greyfriarschorista in the Spring Cup explaining it away on the basis that by his reckoning the race is the equivalent of a normal 0-105 which would have a much lower tariff.
So Mr Balding is toeing the tariff line except when the track not meeting tariff is ‘just down the road’. And Mr Johnston has his own personal tariff menu based on his opinion of the race conditions.
The Horsemen set out on this tariff project with the zeal of crusaders. It appears the only time they want to stand shoulder-to-shoulder now on it is to quietly cook up a walkover.
Those who are sticking to the tariff structure no matter what – at least you deserve praise for consistency. Those who wriggle their way in and out of the tariff maze as it suits might want to consider checking in their principles when they pick up their badges at the racecourse entrance. They can always quietly collect them again on the way out.
Joe McNally
http://wp.me/p1o7dN-poI know all owners are not rich or ‘fat cats’ by any means, but I’m ultra-confident that’s how the tabloids will portray them.
As for the success of tariffs,is that going to be long term? What’s the exit strategy? If racecourses start closing, will it be reconsidered?
The recent about-face showed how much detailed planning had gone into the boycott ‘strategy’.
I think it is short term and ill-conceived and it will come back to bite you hard.
I’d happily bet there will be a mention of it in the non-industry press.
And do you think those Leicester racegoers wending their way home will feel they had full value? It’s not even a walkover based on principle. Full blog article below.
No such thing as bad publicity? Not in my book.
From the Press Association:
The Bet totepool At totesport.com Handicap at Leicester on Saturday will be a walkover after just one horse was declared in protest over the race tariff.
According to the tariff set by the Horsemen’s Group, the Class Three contest should hold a total prize-money fund of £13,000, but this race is worth just £6,000.
Having attracted three entries at the six-day stage, just Saint Helena will line up, but trainer Harry Dunlop insists he is not condoning the level of prize-money on offer.
“We all have our views regarding the tariffs and I very much support them,” said Dunlop.
“I discussed it with some of the other trainers and we thought the best way to do it would be to run one horse so Leicester would have to put up some prize-money.
“It’s a very difficult situation as there are actually five races on the card that are under tariff, but there were just three entries in our race and that changed the situation.
“My owners were very keen to run and they are very important, so that’s why we’re running.
“Obviously it doesn’t look very good for Leicester that they’ve got one runner in a race and I’m afraid prize-money needs to come up.
“I’ve never seen a walkover in Flat racing before and I think Leicester need to wake up and smell the coffee.
“They can see there is just one runner there and they will not want it to happen again in the future.”
Saint Helena will pick up the full prize-money fund if not declared a non-runner.
Leicester’s clerk of the course Jimmy Stevenson was left saddened by the situation.
“It’s disappointing, but it was sort of inevitable after we got the entries,” said Stevenson.
“The horse just have to go down to the furlong marker and come back in front of the judge.
“It’a unfortunate, but there’s not a lot we can do.”
The last walkover to take place under Rules in Britain was over jumps at Exeter in 2007, when Ballyfoy claimed victory after the two other runners were declared non-runners.
Many seem to count this Leicester walkover as a ‘success’ for the Horsemen. (The irony of the boycott affecting a sponsor who is racing’s biggest contributor by far seems to have escaped them)
It’s not a success for racing’s image, that’s for sure. It’s not even a walkover caused by men standing by their principles. It’s a walkover by conspiracy “So that Leicester would have to put up some prize money” I think you’ll find that the non-racing media will see it as a kidnapping story where the ransom was paid but the hostage wasn’t returned by the ‘fat cats who can afford to own racehorses’
Graham Cunningham told me it was ‘an industrial dispute’ in his eyes. Industrial disputes, in the eyes of the public, are the preserve of low-paid workers and black-faced miners with hungry kids.
I’m not saying prize money should or shouldn’t be increased, but we should all look after racing’s image, as the fallout from the Grand National showed.
Horsemen (could they have come up with a more anachronistic name?) crowing ‘success!’ about a walkover which deprives Leicester racegoers of value, the industry of Levy, and racing of respect, is shameful and embarrassing and another incision in racing’s death by a thousand self-inflicted cuts
Many seem to count this Leicester walkover as a ‘success’ for the Horsemen.
It’s not a success for racing’s image, that’s for sure.
The non-racing media will see it as a kidnapping story that finally delivered a ransom for the ‘fat cats who own racehorses’.
Graham Cunningham told me it was ‘an industrial dispute’ in his eyes. Industrial disputes, in the eyes of the public, are the preserve of low-paid workers and black-faced miners with hungry kids.
I’m not saying prize money should or shouldn’t be increased, but we should all look after racing’s image, as the fallout from the Grand National showed.
Horsemen (could they have come up with a more anachronistic name?) crowing ‘success!’ about a walkover which deprives Leicester racegoers of value, the industry of Levy, and racing of respect, is shameful and embarrassing in my view.
"THE PROBLEM MUST BE ADDRESSED!"
Yes. Unfortunately, nobody knows the postcode.
Brilliant stuff GT-I will again publish on my blog and link/credit to your post if that’s OK?
I have published all 40 highly detailed factfiles on blog for those interested: find the JSGN Factfile Category on right of the page this link takes you to http://wp.me/1o7dN – they are all under there
Not tips, just extensive history and background on horse/trainer/owner/jockey.
OND Somoza had over 200 views in a few hours, probably because there’s not much info out there on it. Next most popular is Becauseicouldntsee
Good luck to everyone tomorrow and all horses and jocks: My own shortlist is:
GOLDEN KITE
ORNAIS
CHIEF DAN GEORGE
IN COMPLIANCE
MAJ CONCORDE
THE MIDNIGHT CLUBI think CDG is the type to take to the fences/trip and he’d be the best value bet though TMC will go off quite a bit longer-priced than I thought it would. He looks very solid but am always looking for a value outsider.
Joe
I don’t want to cram the forum with lots of detail, but am equally conscious not to be trying to drive people to my blog.
Suffice to say that there are numerous GN Factfiles similar to the one below on my blog for anyone who’s interested.
Thanks
Joe
http://wp.me/1o7dNOSCAR TIME (IRE) FACTFILE
b g Oscar (IRE) – Baywatch Star (IRE) (Supreme Leader)
10-10-09 Form: 4243/2123217/23232214F/73152-263 Owner: Robert Waley-Cohen
Trainer: Martin Lynch IRE Breeder: Edmond Coleman Jockey: Mr Sam Waley-Cohen
Oscar Time
Oscar Time has only won four of 28 starts but is a model of consistency, having filled the runner-up berth 10 times. The gelding passed through the sales ring for 37,000 euros as a three-year-old at Tattersalls Ireland in August, 2004, with Martin Lynch the buyer. As a four-year-old at Goffs in May, 2005, Emerald Bloodstock paid 40,000 euros for him. The gelding started his racing career at Martin Lynch’s Stepaside yard in the ownership of Navan-based Eamon Kane. Having made his debut with a fourth place in a Roscommon bumper in October, 2006, Oscar Time won at the sixth attempt in that sphere, defeating subsequent Grade One winner Weapon’s Amnesty by half a length at Thurles in January, 2008.
A victory over hurdles followed that April but his biggest success to date came over fences when winning the Paddy Power Chase at Leopardstown in December, 2009, in which he defeated Siegemaster by seven lengths. In April, 2010, Oscar Time showed his potential for the John Smith’s Grand National when finishing runner-up to Bluesea Cracker in the Irish Grand National at Fairyhouse. Following that effort, Robert Waley-Cohen and Sir Martin Broughton purchased the gelding with Waley-Cohen going on to say: “He was bought with the specific target of going to the National. He was second in the Irish National last year and Sam rides him. He has the perfect profile."
Oscar Time has raced thrice this season, each time ridden by Waley-Cohen’s son, the Gold Cup-winning amateur, Sam Waley-Cohen. After finishing second to Rick in the Rock Of Cashel Hurdle at Thurles in November, Oscar Time was then a good sixth in a competitive three-mile handicap hurdle at Leopardstown in December. His latest start came over fences when third in the Grade Two BobbyJo Chase at Fairyhouse on February 23, five lengths behind The Midnight Club.
Race Record: Starts: 28; Wins; 4; 2nd: 10; 3rd; 6: Win & Place Prize Money: £194,237
Robert Waley-Cohen
Robert Waley-Cohen enjoyed his greatest day as an owner in March, 2011, when his amateur rider son Sam Waley-Cohen partnered Long Run to win the Cheltenham Gold Cup, trained by long-time friend Nicky Henderson. The gelding, at six the youngest Gold Cup winner since Mill House in 1963, had landed the King George VI Chase at Kempton in December, aged five. Although Robert Waley-Cohen had a few rides in point-to-points, he described himself as an incredibly bad amateur – “Wrong shape, wrong weight, not fit enough – basically, just thoroughly incompetent”. Born on November 10, 1948 and the founder of healthcare giant Alliance Medical, Robert Waley-Cohen is no stranger to big race success at Aintree as his Rustle won the Bumper in 1987 and the Sefton Novices’ Hurdle the following season while Wont Be Gone Long took the Topham Chase in 1990 and Liberthine collected the same race in 2006 under Sam.
He trains a few horses himself under permit and sent out Katarino to win the John Smith’s Fox Hunters’ Chase in 2005 and 2006 again ridden by Sam. A member of the Jockey Club since 1983, where he has been a steward, he has a small team of around 10 broodmares at Upton Viva in Warwickshire and is also a director of Cheltenham racecourse – he will become Chairman of Cheltenham racecourse when Lord Vestey steps down at the end of this season. He has horses in training with Guillaume Macaire in France as well as Nicky Henderson. His son Tom died of cancer in July, 2004, making Liberthine and Katarino’s exploits even more poignant. Tom’s Ward at Oxford Children’s Hospital is named after him.
John Smith’s Grand National Record: 2003 Katarino (UR 15th); 2007 Liberthine (5th)
Martin Lynch IRE
Stepaside, County Dublin trainer Martin Lynch (born June 6, 1958) is a former jockey who enjoyed his biggest day in the saddle when winning the 1990 Vincent O’Brien Gold Cup on the John Upson-trained Nick The Brief. The Meath native learned his trade as an amateur rider with Clem Magnier and John Fowler, winning the Morgiana Hurdle on Fowler’s Royal Dipper. After turning professional, Lynch won the 1985 Thyestes Chase aboard Seskin Bridge and was second to Rhyme N’ Reason on the same horse in that year’s Irish Grand National. He rode Elfast to win the Mildmay Of Flete at the 1992 Cheltenham Festival before hanging up his riding boots. After taking out a trainer’s licence in Ireland, he leased Bill Durkan’s yard at Glencairn before relocating shortly afterwards to Middleton Park in County Westmeath.
As a trainer, he enjoyed the biggest success of his career when Oscar Time landed the 190,000 euros Paddy Power Chase at Leopardstown in December, 2009. He is married to former trainer Suzanne Finn, a herbalist and acupuncturist, who is credited by the trainer with helping prepare the fussy eater Oscar Time for the Paddy Power Chase. He also trained the high-class Colonel Yeager to finish fourth in the 1999 Grade One Supreme Novices’ Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival. Lynch has never trained more than five winners in a season, which he achieved in the 1995/96 and 1996/97 seasons.
John Smith’s Grand National Record: No previous runners
Mr Sam Waley-Cohen
Sam Waley-Cohen, 28, was born on April 15, 1982. In March of this year, he became the first amateur rider to partner a Cheltenham Gold Cup winner since Jim Wilson in 1981, when triumphing aboard Long Run, on whom he had also won the King George VI Chase at Kempton in December, 2009. His father Robert Waley-Cohen owns Long Run and is a director of Cheltenham Racecourse (soon to be Chairman), permit holder and owner/breeder who has most of his horses in training with Nicky Henderson. Sam studied politics at Edinburgh University and lives in London. He has established his own dental company, Portman Healthcare. He started out on the point-to-point circuit and is now a high-profile amateur rider with several prestigious prizes under his belt. His first success under Rules came aboard Moscow Dancer in an amateur riders’ handicap hurdle at Kelso on December 1, 2003. Liberthine gave Sam a first Cheltenham Festival victory in the 2005 Mildmay Of Flete Handicap Chase. His record at Aintree is the envy of many professional riders, with three wins from 10 starts over the Grand National fences. His first triumph over the famous course came aboard his father’s Katarino in the 2005 John Smith’s Fox Hunter’s Chase.
The pair followed up in the 2006 John Smith’s Fox Hunters’ Chase and Sam enjoyed a fantastic double as he also guided Liberthine to victory in the following day’s John Smith’s Topham Chase over the big spruce fences. His successes over the Grand National course prompted a change in the rules, which prevented riders from participating in the main event if they had ridden less than 15 winners under Rules. Riders are now able to ride in the race, at the discretion of the BHA, if they have partnered 10 winners under Rules. Waley-Cohen took advantage of this new ruling in the 2007 John Smith’s Grand National to partner Liberthine around Aintree once more and the pair enjoyed a superb race, leading for much of the second circuit before fading to finish fifth behind Silver Birch.
Waley-Cohen returned to Aintree in 2008 to partner Katarino in the John Smith’s Fox Hunter’s Chase and the 13-year-old, making his first appearance since winning the same race two years earlier, produced a game front-running performance, only to be passed at the elbow by Christy Beamish. Waley-Cohen enjoyed a productive season on both sides of the English Channel in 2008/09, winning an amateur steeplechase at Auteuil just days after partnering Tricky Trickster to victory in the National Hunt Chase at the Cheltenham Festival. Last season, he enjoyed Grade One success aboard Long Run in the Feltham Novices’ Chase, while he rode Isn’t That Lucky to finish third in the Topham Chase at Aintree, although Little Rocker fell at the sixth fence in the John Smith Fox Hunters’. Waley-Cohen is a close friend Prince William and Kate Middleton and is widely credited with reuniting the pair following their brief break-up in 2007. The future Queen was at school with Sam’s brother, Tom, who died of bone cancer, aged 20, in 2004. Sam is engaged to be married to party planner Annabel Ballin in June.
John Smith’s Grand National Record: 2007 Liberthine (5th); 2009 Ollie Magern (Fell 2nd)
Gingertipster,
Thanks.
Article published here http://wp.me/1o7dN
Look forward to your final verdict
Thanks again
Joe
GingerT,
Are you happy for me to publish your post on my blog with a credit and link to your original?
Thanks
Joe
http://wp.me/1o7dNGingertipster,
That’s the best National preview I’ve ever read outside of the trade papers – and it beats most of those too. Thanks for putting in all the work it must have taken.
Have you a blog/website?
5 day acceptors in racecard layout
THE 2011 JOHN SMITH’S GRAND NATIONAL
Class 1, Grade 3, £950,000 total Prize Fund. 4.15pm, Aintree, Saturday, April 9, 2011, four miles and four furlongs. For six-year-olds old and upwards which are allotted a rating of 110 or more by the BHA Head of Handicapping following a review of the horses entered and after taking account of races run up to and including February 13, 2011. Horses which are not qualified for a rating in Great Britain or Ireland at February 1, 2011, may also be entered. Such horses may be eligible for a weight providing the Handicapper is satisfied that the horse’s racecourse performances to February 13, 2011, would merit a minimum rating of 110. To qualify horses must have run at least three times in Steeple Chases run under the Rules of Racing of the same Recognised Turf Authority up to and including February 13, 2011. At the Handicapper’s discretion such horses may be allocated a rating. The decision of the BHA Head of Handicapping shall be final. No penalties after publication of the weights. Highest weight 11st 10lb. Entries closed February 1, entries revealed February 2 (102 entries, 3 subsequently scratched), weights revealed February 15, first scratchings deadline March 1 (82 remained), second scratchings deadline March 22 (74 remained). Five-day confirmation stage April 4 (65 five-day confirmations), final declaration stage 10.00am, April 7 – maximum field size of 40, plus 4 reserves. Form figures supplied by Weatherbys and are correct up to and including the racing of Sunday, April 3. WITH CORRECT NUMBERING & ORDER OF ELIMINATIONForm Horse Age/Wgt Owner Trainer/Probable Jockey
1) P1-P000 DON’T PUSH IT (IRE) 11-11-10 J P McManus Jonjo O’Neill/Tony McCoy
2) 04-3226 TIDAL BAY (IRE) 10-11-09 Andrea & Graham Wylie Howard Johnson/Brian Hughes
3) 211-524 WHAT A FRIEND 8-11-06 Ged Mason & Sir Alex Ferguson Paul Nicholls/Daryl Jacob
4) 1B-0044 VIC VENTURI (IRE) 11-11-06 Seamus Dunne Dessie Hughes IRE/Andrew Lynch
5) U62/1-31 MAJESTIC CONCORDE (IRE) 8-11-05 Dr Ronan Lambe Dermot Weld IRE/Robbie McNamara
6) 42F14 OR NOIR DE SOMOZA (FR) 9-11-05 Filsal Stadeg Racing David Pipe/Tom Scudamore
7) 1F24-41 DOONEYS GATE (IRE) 10-11-04 Jackie Mullins Willie Mullins IRE/Mr Patrick Mullins
14-2F44 BIG FELLA THANKS 9-11-01 Crossed Fingers Partnership Ferdy Murphy/Graham Lee
9) 205-244 THE TOTHER ONE (IRE) 10-11-00 Graham Roach Paul Nicholls/Mr Ryan Mahon
10) 111-112 BALLABRIGGS (IRE) 10-11-00 Trevor Hemmings Donald McCain/Jason Maguire11) 3133-21 THE MIDNIGHT CLUB (IRE) 10-10-13 Susannah Ricci Willie Mullins IRE/Ruby Walsh
12) 20P-F50 NICHE MARKET (IRE) 10-10-13 Graham Regan Paul Nicholls/Harry Skelton
13) 121-001 SILVER BY NATURE 9-10-12 Geoff Brown Lucinda Russell/Peter Buchanan
14) 0BP-500 BACKSTAGE (FR) 9-10-12 MPR & Capranny Syndicate Gordon Elliott IRE/Paul Carberry
15) 11-053F CHIEF DAN GEORGE (IRE) 11-10-12 Maurice Chapman Jimmy Moffatt/Paddy Aspell
16) 4-56242 CALGARY BAY (IRE) 8-10-10 Camilla Radford Henrietta Knight/Hadden Frost
17) 2P-2536 KILLYGLEN (IRE) 9-10-10 David McCammon Stuart Crawford IRE/Robert Power
18) 152-263 OSCAR TIME (IRE) 10-10-09 Robert Waley-Cohen/Sir Martin & S Broughton Martin Lynch IRE/ Mr Sam Waley-Cohen
19) 10-1131 QUINZ (FR) 7-10-08 Andrew Cohen Philip Hobbs/Richard Johnson
20) 500423 NORTHERN ALLIANCE (IRE) 10-10-08 Irish Rover Syndicate Tony Martin IRE/Barry Geraghty21) 2212-42 BECAUSEICOULDNTSEE (IRE) 8-10-08 Noel Glynn Noel Glynn IRE/Davy Russell
22) 000-06P COMPLY OR DIE (IRE) 12-10-08 David Johnson David Pipe/Timmy Murphy
23) F-FF25P QUOLIBET (FR) 7-10-08 J P McManus Jonjo O’Neill/Mark Walsh
24) 1FP10P GRAND SLAM HERO (IRE) 10-10-07 Walters Plant Hire Ltd Nigel Twiston-Davies/Aidan Coleman
25) 6/454-P6 ROLL ALONG (IRE) 11-10-07 Bryan & Philippa Burrough Nigel Twiston-Davies/????
26) 0/144/P3- STATE OF PLAY 11-10-06 William & Angela Rucker Evan Williams/Paul Moloney
27) 11-11P5 KING FONTAINE (IRE) 8-10-06 Trevor Hemmings Malcolm Jefferson/Denis O’Regan
28) U-3431U IN COMPLIANCE (IRE) 11-10-05 Westerly Breeze Syndicate Dessie Hughes IRE/Leighton Aspell
29) 005P-1P HELLO BUD (IRE) 13-10-05 Seamus Murphy Nigel Twiston-Davies/Sam Twiston-Davies
30) P/00-11P WEST END ROCKER (IRE) 9-10-05 Barry Winfield & Tim Leadbeater Alan King/Robert Thornton31) 200010 SANTA’S SON (IRE) 11-10-05 Douglas Pryde & Jim Beaumont Howard Johnson/Jamie Moore
32) C21-046 BLUESEA CRACKER (IRE) 9-10-04 J P McManus James Motherway IRE/Andrew McNamara
33) 01050 THAT’S RHYTHM (FR) 11-10-04 Don’t Tell Henry Martin Todhunter/James Reveley
34) P2/111/-0 SURFACE TO AIR 10-10-04 Tim Urry Chris Bealby/Tom Messenger
35) P-234PP PIRAYA (FR) 8-10-04 Terry Neill David Pipe/Johnny Farrelly
36) 6F-0P5P CAN’T BUY TIME (IRE) 9-10-04 J P McManus Jonjo O’Neill/Richie McLernon
37) 0-30563 CHARACTER BUILDING (IRE) 11-10-04 Patricia Thompson John Quinn/Miss Nina Carberry
38) 15/1P/-52 ORNAIS (FR) 9-10-04 The Stewart Family Paul Nicholls/Nick Scholfield
39) U2U-0P2 ARBOR SUPREME (IRE) 9-10-03 J P McManus Willie Mullins IRE/David Casey
40) 013111- OUR MONTY (IRE) 8-10-03 Colland Sand & Gravel Ltd Willie Mullins IRE/Ms Katie Walsh41) P5U-42P ROYAL ROSA (FR) 12-10-03 Andrea & Graham Wylie Howard Johnson/Paul Gallagher
42) 313-011 SKIPPERS BRIG (IRE) 10-10-02 Ashleybank Investments Limited Nicky Richards/Dominic Elsworth
43) 210010 GOLDEN KITE (IRE) 9-10-02 Dr Anthony Calnan Adrian Maguire IRE/Shane Hassett
44) 006004 ALWAYS WAINING (IRE) 10-10-02 Mr & Mrs Peter James Douglas Peter Bowen/???
45) 321112 PUTNEY BRIDGE 9-10-01 Louise Goldsworthy Keith Goldsworthy/???
46) 4/22-1PP BELON GALE (IRE) 8-10-01 Andrea & Graham Wylie Howard Johnson/???
47) 402P-02 FAASEL (IRE) 10-10-01 Jim Ennis David Pipe/???
48) 02043P LE BEAU BAI (FR) 8-10-01 Glass Half Full Richard Lee/???
49) D61-0F0 MERIGO (FR) 10-10-01 Raymond & Anita Anderson Green Andrew Parker/???
50) 6-02162 ASKTHEMASTER (IRE) 11-10-00 Carrolle Wall Robert Tyner IRE/???51) 11P61/0/- STARZAAN (IRE) 12-10-00 Ben Arbib Hughie Morrison/???
52) 123-P22 GILES CROSS (IRE) 9-10-00 KCMS Partnership Victor Dartnall/???
53) 1U0-660 SADDLERS STORM (IRE) 9-10-00 Billy Moffett/R T & J McLoughlin Tony Martin IRE/???
54) 1-PP11P SAGALYRIQUE (FR) 7-9-13 Sir Robert Ogden Donald McCain/???
55) U0-6042 AMBOBO (USA) 11-9-13 Deirdre Brassil Martin Brassil IRE/???
56) 241P64 DUERS (IRE) 9-9-13 Kate Kelly/Kate Ronan Paul Magnier IRE/???
57) 11120-P TOBY JUG 10-9-13 Paul & Caron Chapman & Sarah Humphrey Sarah Humphrey/???
58) 131-321 JUNIOR 8-9-12 Middleham Park Racing LI David Pipe/???
59) 064260 THE SAWYER (BEL) 11-9-12 David Fear Bob Buckler/???
60) 2613-PP GALANT NUIT (FR) 7-9-12 David Parry Ferdy Murphy/???61) 044522 BALLYFITZ 11-9-09 Fred & Wayne Mills Nigel Twiston-Davies/???
62) F4-5365 POMME TIEPY (FR) 8-9-09 Susannah Ricci Willie Mullins IRE/???
63) 24U344 I’MONCLOUDNINE (IRE) 8-9-09 Fred Matthews Neil Mulholland/???
64) 116PP-P TREACLE (IRE) 10-9-04 Bjorn Nielsen Tom Taaffe IRE/???
65) P23221 REGAL HEIGHTS (IRE) 10-9-02 Janet Heler Tom George/???The order of elimination was decided this afternoon by Phil Smith, Head of Handicapping at the British Horseracing Authority.
The declared runners will be known on Thursday morning and there will be four reserves which have to be utilised by Friday morning.
65 five-day confirmations 20 Irish-trained
The nine horses who did not go forward at today’s five-day stage were Midnight Chase, Synchronised, Scotsirish, Notre Pere, Ballytrim, Nedzer’s Return, Frankie Figg, One Cool Cookie and Dev.
JSGN official elimination order 40 max – 39)ARBOR SUPREME, 40)OUR MONTY, 41)ROYAL ROSA, 42)SKIPPERS BRIG, 43)GOLDEN KITE, 44)ALWAYS WAINING.
last 4 to make it into GN:
Surface To Air (GB)
That’s Rhythm (FR)
Arbor Supreme (IRE)
Our Monty
Full decs on my blog:
John Smith’s Grand National* entry, Our Monty has been trading at around 200/1 on Betfair these past few days – now 120/1 – and that is way too big in my opinion.
A maximum of 40 runners will line up for the big race next Saturday and Our Monty is number 48 on the list so he needs a few withdrawals to get a run. One horse, Our Monty’s stablemate, Ballytrim has already been taken out of the race (lame) and, sadly, One Cool Cookie – alongside Our Monty in the weights with 10stone 3lbs – suffered a fatal accident on the gallops.
Frankie Figg has since been announced a non-runner (he was on the same weight as Our Monty)
So Our Monty needs five horses above him in the weights to come out at the next declaration stage – noon today – to be sure of a run. Doubtless there will be some defectors and, possibly, between today and Saturday; the key will be whether those withdrawn are above him in the weights. Four reserves will be chosen too.
The good news is that trainer Willie Mullins is reported today as saying the horse will be left in till the final stages to face the ballot for a place in the line-up. If Our Monty is unsuccessful in that ballot, bets on him are void and his supporters get their money returned.
Mr Mullins said in his Racing Post column last weekend that he believed Our Monty had been overlooked and that the horse was very well. If he makes it to the post on Saturday, it will be Our Monty’s first run since 15th November 2009 when he won the Paddy Power.com Cork Grand National. Here’s his form comment for that victory:
Settled in mid-division on inner, mistake 6 out, smooth progress to track leader entering straight, switched left to stands’ side and disputed 3 out, led next, cruised clear before last, very easily (op 2/1 tchd 11/4
The quote from jockey David Casey after that race was:
“I’d have no problem riding him over any trip. He could make an Irish National horse.”
Casey will ride Arbor Supreme but Katie Walsh has been booked for Our Monty (see K Walsh factfile at foot)
Our Monty’s next outing after Cork was to be in the Coral Welsh Grand National. He was as short as 8/1 for that before being withdrawn.
I don’t know why the horse has been off so long – I suspect a tendon injury has kept him out. However, Mr Mullins said last week that the horse is very well and they simply ran out of time in trying to find a prep race for him this season.
Our Monty’s full form panel appears at the foot of this article. He has won and been placed on the Flat. Over jumps he’s won at 2miles 1furlong and at 3m 4f. He has victories on good to firm ground and on heavy. Such versatility can be the sign of a very decent horse.
Our Monty joined the Mullins yard in late 2009 and is unbeaten in three runs since, winning each easily. He’s not that big but jumps well. He fell first time out over fences but in four subsequent ‘chasing runs he has made just one mistake. The trends boys will tell you that a horse with just five steeplechasing runs is one to avoid due to the experience needed in the National, and there’s plenty evidence to support that theory. But I never let trends put me off if the value is there.
If Our Monty does not get into the National, watch out for him wherever he appears next. He has an entry in Friday’s John Smith’s Topham Chase and has also been entered for the bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown on April 23rd.
If you can get on at odds above 25/1 for the National with a guarantee of money back if he is balloted out, you will have had value. Taking the current huge prices available on the betting exchanges (Our Monty can be backed place only at what, in my opinion, should be his win price, around 24/1) is a no-brainer.
Good luck
Joe
http://wp.me/p1o7dN-cwMs Katie Walsh Born: December 18, 1984 County Kildare Background: Daughter of trainer and broadcaster Ted Walsh and sister of Ruby. Honed her riding skills three-day eventing First Winner: Hannon, Gowran Park, October 10, 2003. Rides principally for Willie Mullins. Cheltenham Festival Wins (2): Vincent O’Brien County Hurdle (2010 Thousand Stars); 140th Year Of The National Hunt Chase (2010 Poker De Sivola) Wins In Britain (2004/05-2009/10): 0; 0; 0; 1; 0; 2;
I’ll be posting some general factfiles on participants, human and equine, this week in the hope of offering some insight:
ARBOR SUPREME (IRE) b g Moscow Society (USA) – Miss Perky (IRE) (Creative Plan (USA))9-10-03 Form: 135/4F5324151/1330/37U2U-0P2 Owner: J P McManus, Trainer: Willie Mullins IRE Breeder: Thomas O’Brien
Arbor Supreme hails from the family of high-class chasers Celtic Ryde, Noddy´s Ryde and Teeton Mill, and made a successful start to his career when an eight-length winner of a Leopardstown bumper in January, 2007. He was then sold to J P McManus, but did not win either of his next two starts over hurdles.
Sent over fences at the start of the 2007/08 season, he got off the mark at the seventh attempt in that sphere in a beginners’ chase at Naas in March and ended the campaign by defeating seasoned handicappers in a three mile, six furlong handicap chase at Punchestown in April.
The 2008/09 season began with another victory in a staying handicap chase at Fairyhouse but he was winless for the rest of the campaign, including when 14th behind Niche Market in the Irish Grand National. At the Punchestown Festival in May, 2009, he finished third to Ambobo in a valuable handicap chase.
Arbor Supreme was mid-division in the 2010 John Smith’s Grand National when unseating Paul Townend at The Chair. This season, he was well beaten at Naas first time and then was pulled up in the Welsh National before finishing a length second to The Midnight Club in the Grade Two Bobbyjo Chase at Fairyhouse on February 23. He is one of six remaining entries for Willie Mullins. Race Record: Starts: 24; Wins: 4 ; 2nd: 3; 3rd: 5; Win & Place PrizeMoney: £92,775
14-2F44 BIG FELLA THANKS 9-11-01 Crossed Fingers Partnership Ferdy Murphy/Graham Lee