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Looks a potentially very good race. Several of the field will be bonus hunting – 75k to the winner of this and any race at cheltenham. Initial glance suggests Pipe, Henderson and Moore all hold a strong hand –
Aegean Dawn – What’s left to say? Apparently the seven barrows stable lads picked him as their Cheltenham nap during a recent media day. Gambled on for the Coral Cup already. Looks the proverbial ‘group horse hiding in a handicap’. Likely favorite.
Giorgio Quercus – mmm very interesting. Mark of 124 over hurdles but 148 (based on limited evidence) over fences. Entered in Grand Annual and Arkle next week. Really interesting contender.
Eradicate – Solid Swinton Hurdle winner. Apparently prefers good ground. If that is true then he is likely a better horse this year, running well on soft ground in the Totesport Trophy. Worth noting that he was well off the pace in what looked a slowly run affair at Newbury. Proven form but has he got enough in hand?
Onto the Pipe runners –
Arrayan – Rapidly progressing through the handicap and given that this yard have won 6 of the last 13 runnings, he looks a major player. Unseated rider last time after jockeys foot slipped out of Irons.
Ronaldo Des Mottes – Classy Totesport 2010 second. Not competitive in Irish CH or Kingwell Hurdle. He may have needed the last run and is entered in the County Hurdle next week. Normally won by something lower in the weights but could easily be well handicapped. Anything this yard enters must be taken seriously.
And finally Mr. Gary Moore has a couple of interesting contenders…
Via Gallilei – won off 91 on the flat for Jim Bolger. Won twice this season including an easy win at Newbury last Saturday. Was entered in the Totesport but didn’t get in. Should get in here with his revised mark and if anyone can spot a horse capable of winning a big 2m handicap it’s this man. Very interesting if running.
Sire De Grugy – looked a very nice horse when winning fairly easily at Kempton last time. That was a graded novice race although the form is open to question (very soft ground, several newcomers and under-performers). Doesn’t have a Cheltenham entry. Jockey was of the opinion soft ground helped his cause that day. Interesting all the same.
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Aegean Dawn is lightly raced and I wouldn’t be surprised if he can take this en route to victory at Cheltenham.
Ronaldo Des Mottes travelled well for a long way in Kingwell and tired towards the finish so looks nailed on for a place in this.
I backed Sire de Grugy at Kempton and was impressed with the way he won and looks a horse to keep on the right side of ( looks as though he will make a nice big chaser in future )
Those two against the field for me at this stage.
why can’t i do a double on aegean dawn to win the imperial cup and the coral cup??
From IBAS site:
Related Contingencies
Predictions that are related, that is to say where the outcome of one prediction has a bearing on the outcome of another, normally cannot be combined in a double or other accumulative bet.
Examples would be a double on Chelsea to win and Drogba to score first, Chelsea to beat Man United, and Chelseaa to beat Man United 2-0. These bets are not allowed. If accepted in error, the bet would be settled as two singles, the stake equally divided. Therefore in the first example one half of the stake would be invested in Chelsea to win and one half in Drogba to score first.
Football is well known for the number of related bets which may inadvertently be accepted at the counter or online, that’s due to the many different betting opportunities on the same match.
Most bookmakers will make available special odds in which the relatedness has been taken into account. It follows that customers should not invent their own special multiple price doubles.
why can’t i do a double on aegean dawn to win the imperial cup and the coral cup??
Wm Hill have priced up the double this evening of ‘Winning the Imperial and winning any race at Cheltenham’ next week – Aegean Dawn is quoted as 18/1.
RegardsUPDATE at 21.20pm – odds above just shortened to 14s – had a little wager
2nd Update: Both Bet365 and Paddy Power have the following doubles available –
Aegean Dawn to win Imperial Cup and Coral Cup
Aegean Dawn to win Imperial Cup and County Hurdlethanks guys,glad i couldn’t get it on now as aegean dawn misses the imperial cup apparently!
thanks guys,glad i couldn’t get it on now as aegean dawn misses the imperial cup apparently!
Where did you hear that? Gutted if thats the case.
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Eradicate
– Solid Swinton Hurdle winner. Apparently prefers good ground. If that is true then he is likely a better horse this year, running well on soft ground in the Totesport Trophy. Worth noting that he was well off the pace in what looked a slowly run affair at Newbury. Proven form but has he got enough in hand?
Might just have enough in hand.
Even on the flat form, his RPR for the Totesport shows an improvement of 5lb on his Swinton form, which leaves him just another 5 to find on the better ground, and with a more positive ride.
Much has been made of Barry Gerraghty riding the Pipe horse, but Eradicate is only a small horse, and Hendo would always seek to take the weight off; and he has been claimer ridden in each of his last 4 hurdle races.Yep – he should love the ground and has arguably improved without winning this season. Agree on Bass – he’s pretty much a free 3lbs.
The niggling doubt is over his weight. Hard not to think they’ll be a young improver with more in hand.
Aarryan was 12-1 earlier in the week and that looks a cracking bet now. Unfortunately I missed the boat and 7-1 with so many unexposed types doesn’t appeal much. Although in saying that, Pipe seemed very confident on Morning Line. No doubt he’ll be spot on and is very likely well handicapped. mmm maybe 7-1 is a decent price
It’s that kind of race. Very open and a case can be made for half the field. I can’t get seriously involved for that reason.
I think i’ll throw a couple of quid at Venetia Williams horse Old Way. Totally unexposed and she certainly knows how to win something like this.
Much has been made of Barry Gerraghty riding the Pipe horse, but Eradicate is only a small horse, and Hendo would always seek to take the weight off; and he has been claimer ridden in each of his last 4 hurdle races.
From Barry Gerrahty column on ATR, as you suspected…
…and with Nicky deciding to use David Bass’s claim on Eradicate
I like the chances of Old Way for Williams. Off the bottom weight, it cannot have enjoyed the heavy conditions it won in at Hereford but it battled on gamely, 20/1 for me.
Of the others Via Galilei appeals the most.
Lively ground will have a part to play and I want to be on side with those that will enjoy it.
Barry
Geraghty’s record in Class One handicap hurdles, excluding Ireland,since 1996 . . .
62 rides
10 wins (16.1% Strike Rate)
Return on Investment (ROI) backing every runner at Betfair odds: 182.7% (100% = break even)
For comparison:
Ruby Walsh record in same category:
117 rides
13 wins (11.1% SR)
ROI 131%
AP McCoy
159 rides
20 wins (12.6 SR)
ROI(93.6 – a loss)
David Pipe’s record in the Class One handicap Hurdle, Imperial Cup:
6 runners
2 winners (33.3%Strike Rate)
Return on Investment (ROI) backing every runner at Betfair odds: 152.1% (100% = break even)
Geraghty has his first ever ride for David Pipe today in the Class One Imperial Cup on Arrayan who is around 7/1. Geraghty would normally ride for Nicky Henderson who runs the fancied Eradicate, although theres’ every chance Mr Henderson chose to give the ride to the talented claimer David Bass who lightens Eradicate’s load by 3lbs, so it must not be assumed that Barry Geraghty has ‘begged off’ to ride the Pipe horse.
Good luck
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