The Backfit Thread (a.k.a Stats and Trends)- Cheltenham 2011

[cormack15]

I’m a great believer in using trends and stats as a guide to helping identify winners.

I’ve looked back over the last 8 years of Cheltenham results and am in the process of identifying some simple filters for each race which I am hopeful will provide some winners this festival.

Beware though – even using 8 years worth of data the sample is incredibly small. In addition, all backfitters will know that there are absolutely no guarantees that the future will look anything like the past. To counteract this, to some extent I guess, I’ve gone for strong trends which have resulted in (in most cases) >100% profit so we should be in with a fighting chance.

I’ll choose a variety of races which, if you cover them all, means that we just have to pick up a couple of decent winners to get out in front.

I’ll follow this through to the festival and try to post the qualifiers each morning.

And I’ll try to use a max of four filters/rules for each race.

[cormack15]

Race 1 – Supreme Novices’ Hurdle

Four simple rules to follow here –

1. Only 5 or 6 year olds
2. Must have been placed first or second in BOTH last 2 runs
3. Less than 20/1
4. From remaining horses select the two which are biggest price (if joint biggest means more than two back them all)

Layman’s Logic

– Lots of these haven’t raced against each other and often are unexposed. Plenty also come into the race with strong form figs, even at bigger prices. 5 and 6 year olds have far and away strongest record. So stick with that age group who may be unexposed and difficult to rate (strong form figs but decent price).

You’re relying on

Go Native

and

Menorah

for the profit to support this one but with three others coming second this looks a meritorious and easy set of rules to get the meeting underway.

Back the two longest priced of those that start at less than 20/1 from this list

Gibb River
Magen’s Star
Zaidpour
Al Ferof
Sprinter Sacre
Recession Proof

Narrow miss here – minus two points

[cormack15]

Race 2 – The Arkle Trophy

Four rules again –

1. Must have won at least one of last two runs
2. Must have run within last 100 days
3. Must be <10/1
4. Ignore favourite and second favourite and back all other qualifiers

Good strike rate with this one and profit well over 100% so quite confident of going close here.

Layman’s Logic

Arkle always run at a fast pace so any fitness flaws exposed (therefore <100 day rule). Those prominent in the market do well (hence <10/1) but there is usually little between the front four/five in the market so, on price and to take out a few qualifiers, it pays to avoid first/second favs.

THIS YEAR’S QUALIFIERS

They all qualify on form figs and days since last ran apart from

West With The Wind.

Put a line through him and then follow rules 3 and 4 to find your selections.

Captain Chris

at 6/1. Running total + 2 points

[cormack15]

Race 3 – The Champion Hurdle

Four rules –

1. Must have competed in a race worth >£20,000 last time
2. Must be 6, 7 or 8 years old
3. Exclude horses who have woin BOTH of last two starts
4. Must be less than 40/1

Layman’s Logic

This has provided plenty qualifiers and managed to ‘catch’ some of the recent big priced winners but looking at this year’s race we may struggle to get more than one or two qualifiers (I think Dunguib sneaks in though).
It’s difficult for a top class hurdler to sustain a ‘peak’ over a series of races and plenty have come into the race off form figs of ’11’ at short prices only to fail in the big one. May be different this year though after so many ‘soft’ wins.
6 to 8 is strongest age group (age is a very significant factor in most NH races).
Most succesful horses have been running in valuable races (hence the £20k+ rule). This rules out plenty of promising horses who then fail to cope with the step-up (Rooster Booster being an exception).
The <40/1 filter takes out the no-hopers (cue a 50/1 winner this year!!)

The three possible qualifiers are

OVERTURN
THOUSAND STARS
DUNGUIB

Back any or all those three if they start UNDER 40/1

Overturn didn’t qualify so two runners – both lost – leaves us level after this

[cormack15]

Race 4 – The Cross Country Chase

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Only two rules required for what has been a trends followers dream of a race.

1. Irish trained horses only.
2. Must start <5/1

Layman’s logic

– These races have been farmed by the Irish (or more specifically Enda Bolger). Market leaders have done very well and the race invariably seems to come down to just two or three live candidates.

I’ll continue tomorrow night with Wednesday’s races. (I’ve got some great, easy, filters for the National Hunt Chase which has served up a host of big priced winners from relatively few qualifiers).

THIS YEAR’S QUALIFIERS

Back any one or all of

L’Ami, Garde Champetre or Sizing Australia

provided they start at less than 5/1.

Aaaaargh – no qualifiers. Should have made trend ‘first three in market’ Ha. So we’re all square after Day 1.

[Steeplechasing]

Stats and trends have become hugely popular in the past few years, especially for festival meetings. Maths was never my strong point – if I could work out a £2 double at 11/4 and 9/2 I was happy.
So when stats came to the fore in racing, I, like many, welcomed them. They were the S-Plan diet for form students – lose work, gain time painlessly.

The first time I was alerted to the cracks in the stats ceiling was in 2008 when I had a very strong fancy for Captain Cee Bee in the Supreme Novices Hurdle at Cheltenham.

But the stats boys said – “Ignore seven-year-olds, they have a very poor record”. The Supreme is a race for novice hurdlers aged four and older. I set about digging a bit deeper and found that in the previous ten years, only a handful of seven-year-olds had run in the Supreme. That blew the stat’s credence, making it a non-stat. It also helped Captain Cee Bee go off at a longer price so the ‘stat’ was helpful to me in the end.

Another, bound to pop up somewhere before next Friday, is “ignore six-year-olds (Long Run) who have a very poor record in the Gold Cup” But as the popular Paul Jones, the man who is to stats what Brian Epstein was to The Beatles, tells us in his annual Festival Guide , only three six-year-olds have run in the race since 1963.

My simplistic view is that, unless stats are published with a sample size, treat them with extreme caution. For a much more comprehensive and learned insight, you might find these articles interesting

http://thefiguresneverlie.blogspot.com/ … -list.html

http://betting.betfair.com/horse-racing … 10111.html

Good luck
Joe
http://wp.me/P1o7dN-2

[cormack15]

True Joe – you do need to look under the bare ‘facts’ to see what lies beneath.

Anyway – moving swiftly on.

Race 5 – National Hunt Chase

7 or 8 year olds only
Ran in last 40 days
Last race run must have been three miles or longer
Must have been placed 1st or 2nd last time out

3rd at 20/1

Minus two overall

Layman’s Logic –

7 and 8 year olds have dominated the race in the past. Run over four miles, the race places a premium on both stamina and fitness. A relatively recent run is a huge plus if that has been over a decent trip it bodes even better. Horses that run well in this do tend to have shown strong form last time, hence the 1st/2nd LTO filter.
Following those four rules will provide a few runners I expect but it’s also quite likely to unearth one at a good price.

[cormack15]

Race 6 – RSA Chase

Only three rules –

1. Seven year olds only
2. Must have won last time out
3. Must have won over hurdles

Layman’s Logic

–
Doesn’t produce as many runners as you might think but a very successful set of filters for this race. Seven year olds have a good mix of stamina and speed while their youngers and elders seem to lack one or the other. A last time out win is indicative of being in decent form and fit, both of which are vital. The third rule is a bit odd but it could be that a hurdles win is indicative of both speed and also a touch of precocity, both of which seem to help in this.

[edited Mon 14th] Forgot to add – must start less than 16/1

[cormack15]

Race 7 – The World Hurdle

<10/1 in the betting but NOT in the first three in teh market
Less than 9 years old

There were no qualifiers in this race

[cormack15]

Race 8 – The Gold Cup

1. Age 7, 8 or 9
2. Must have finished 1st or 2nd on one or both of his last two runs
3. Must be less than 10/1 in the betting

Two qualifiers – Kempes and Midnight Chase – minus two here takes us to minus 8 overall

[cormack15]

All square after day 1 of this.

[cormack15]

Down 6 points

[cormack15]

Minus 8 points overall. Couple of hard-luck stories but disappointing result.

[JJMSports]

Good stuff this David, definitely seems profitable with bit of tweaking, i.e. RSA criteria being less than or equal to 16/1?

Good stuff.

[Author]

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