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Kings Gambit 20/1 Each Way William Hill
If you backed the first two in the market Calandagan and Economics to win the same amount you would be getting odds of around 1 to 3. Calandagan has good form on soft ground but has achieved his best rating on good to firm. He was been on the go since mid March and is the most likely winner should he show his most recent form. Economics has shown his best form on good ground and was beaten on the two occasions he encountered soft ground. His form in beating Jayarebe 2 lengths at Deauville does not seem much better than Kings Gambit’s unlucky in running 3/4 defeat by the same horse at Royal Ascot. Los Angeles looks fully exposed. His half length defeat of Kings Gambit was likely down to the race tactics of the Aiden Obrien stable and the mile and a half not the best trip for KG. Who has the most scope for improvement it’s got to be Kings Gambit at 3 times the odds here. The half length defeat of Kings Gambit at York to Alflaila can be attributed to the very slow early pace resulting in a time 12 seconds below standard. I see Kings Gambit very much in the same light as I saw Blue Stocking last season, he is the most unexposed horse in the race, we have yet to see the best of him and whatever he does here I can see him having a fruitful season as a 4 year old.
The most visually impressive performance I have seen this year was Kings Gambit at Newbury. He looks a group 1 performer to me and if he wins here expect the current odds of 25/1 for his next race in the Juddmonte to be in single figures.
Rodin is a terrible bet at 5/4. In his 5 of his 13 races he was well beaten or ran a stinker and was favourite for those races. BlueStocking is a very frustrating horse, last year I backed her every time she ran and that last run finishing second cost me big time as the last leg of an antepost treble. She seems stronger this year but at 5/1 is no value and she is not a certain runner as the weather forecast is for warm dry weather and they are already watering the ground. Rebels Romance has done most of his winning abroad, his best effort here was a group 3 at Goodwood. At 4/1 he is very poor value. The other 4 Obrien runners will be doubtful runners and they don’t look good enough anyway.
No mention for Middle Earth? As of today the only remaining entry for John Gosden. He is the only runner in the field with Jockey declared (Oisin Murphy) With the field now down to 11 with 5 of those from the Aiden Obrien stable the race will surely have fewer runners. Little or no rain is forecast so those requiring cut in the ground may not run or if they do will not show their best form. It’s quite possible there will be less than 8 runners come saturday and at a best price of 16/1 Middle Earth looks a cracking each way bet. He will have his ground and we haven’t seen the best of him yet.
Have had a very speculative bet on Kalashnikov for this race. Took the 140/1 win and 40/1 place on Betfair. Winner of Betfair Hurdle followed by a neck second in Supreme Novices Hurdle. Backed him for the Arkle and he was travelling very well until he fell. Connections are running him over 2 miles in Game Spirit today, he is second favourite. He is entered for both Champion Chase and Ryanair Chase, if he wins or finishes close to winner today he may well run in Champion Chase which is usually a small field (only 9 runners in last 2 runnings) so for me the 40/1 place looks a value bet, more so if the going is soft.
Native River is still in the betting for the Welsh National, his current price on Betfair is 10.5/1 and with the bookies he is as low as 7/1. You would think the stable would be keen to run him as he is on a good mark and the race plays to his strengths, he would also keep the weights down for the stables other runners. Funny that Joe Tizzard said he was a runner in his previous blog:
‘The race has cut up to four runners and we have changed the headgear from cheek pieces to blinkers. He’s been in some hard races over his career, so the blinkers should just help keep him focused.
He’s had a couple of away days. He went to Newbury last Sunday and schooled beautifully a couple of times, and this has always been the plan. It looks a nice race. I don’t know what to expect from Might Bite but Native River beat him last year. We think we’ve got Native River in very good form, he’s won round Aintree as a novice, so this is the right race for him.
If he runs well in this race, then his next start will be in the Coral Welsh Grand National, and after that we’ll make a plan to take us to the Gold Cup.
It will obviously be a big challenge winning at Chepstow again off 167 but I think it’s doable. In fact, we probably train the main danger to him in Elegant Escape. It’s the right race for both those horses.’
When the ground is this bad you can throw the form book out of the window for this race. The 20/1 shots and higher have just as much chance, Drovers Lane looks worth a bet.
If Betfair is anything to go by then Santini is now a certain runner for the RSA. Official announcement due this morning.
20mm of rain forecast for wednesday 6th march:
http://www.weather-wherever.co.uk/united-kingdom/cheltenham_v13026/j2/
Davy Russell singing the praises of Elegant Escape. Against my better judgement I may have a saver. I think the horse has more chance of coming last than winning but that’s what I said to my brother in law when he was about to place an each way bet on Nortons Coin at 200/1
Strong support on Betfair for Kalashnikov, I had a bet at 26/1 two days ago, now down to 12/1. I do not get why Lalor is as short as 3/1, he was impressive in November but that was on good ground and we are guaranteed at least good to soft irrespective of the weather.
Regarding Bristol De Mai, the reason he is such a big price is that he is around a stone better at Haydock than any other course. If the GC were at Haydock he would be favourite. He brings to mind another staying chaser called Twin Oaks from the early 1990s who was all but unbeatable at Haydock. He would have won 9 consecutive appearances at Haydock but for running into the 1992 Gold Cup winner Cool Ground who was in receipt of 7 pounds.
Take a look at the 2017 Gold Cup. This was run on good ground in a time faster than standard. For the entirety of the race Native River was within 3 lengths of the lead. He led or shared the lead coming downhill before the turn. He is rated 8 pounds higher now.
My 2 against the field are Native River and Presenting Percy. When PP easily won the RSA I immediately ploughed back some of my winnings for next years Gold Cup and when I saw that Native River was 14/1 prior to winning last year Gold Cup I backed him too. I have not seen anything since then to put me off my selections.
Improving horse that he is I cannot fancy Clan Des Obeaux at all, I wouldn’t back him at 10/1.
His best piece of form going left handed was when finishing a well beaten 4th of 5 in the Betfair Chase run on good ground. I cannot have it that he improved a stone in the 4 weeks leading up to the King George. For me he will not stay the trip at Cheltenham and is a place lay.The Irish horses aside from PP don’t look good enough aside from Kemboy but there does not appear to be much stable confidence. Thistlecrack’s best chance was in the season he won the KG, he won’t be winning this years race at age 11. Elegant Escape has more chance of finishing last than winning the race.
Irrespective of ground conditions I expect to see Native River attempt to make all the running once more. He does not need soft ground as many say, he finished within a couple of lengths of Sizing John in the 2017 GC run on good ground at the end of a tough campaign that saw him win both the Hennessy and Welsh National.
I expect Presenting Percy will be held up in around 5/6th place and delivered to make his challenge to Native River coming up the home straight with the other runners strung out like washing.
As Potato is so confident about Elegant Escape winning the Gold Cup, I make this challenge to him. I bet you any amount you like up to £50 that Elegant Escape will not finish in the first 6. I also will stand you a bet of £1 at 100/1 for Elegant Escape to win if you will stand me a bet of £1 at 100/1 for him to finish last. Are you up for it?
On all known form Elegant Escape has more chance of finishing last than winning the race. Would you like to offer me 100/1 on him finishing last Potato? Anyone who thinks Elegant Escape has any chance of winning should consider betting in running because 3 or 4 fences out he will likely be outpaced as seen in his last 2 races at Cheltenham and will be trading at 100/1+
For me this is a 2 horse race, Native River will try and make all and may well succeed, the only danger is the very classy Presenting Percy who will need to run a career best to win.
Altior is far from the certainty most of you make him out to be.
When you look at who he has beaten over fences he does not look so good. He beat the almost 11 year old Un De Sceaux 4 lengths. Having followed Un De Sceaux over the years I can safely say that on his best form as a younger horse he would have beaten Altior comfortably in that race.
In the same race he finished 19 lengths in front on Saint Calvados, yet Footpad beat Saint Calvados by 52 lengths.
When you compare last years Arkle with last years Champion Chase then Footpad was clearly the better horse, he covered the same course and distance over 5 seconds quicker on heavy ground than Altior did on soft ground.
At 9 years old you have probably seen the best of Altior, whereas the 7 year old Footpad is still improving.
Altior was in danger of losing both the Arkle and Champion Chase as both Charbel and Douvan looked to have his measure before they fell.
Altior is a very good horse but is no 1/2 shot, if Footpad turns up in the same form as last year he will run Altior very close
