- This topic has 112 replies, 37 voices, and was last updated 7 years, 1 month ago by
.
- Posts
Indeed 10/1 is huge, I would not be surprised to see as few a 6 runners come the day of the race. Only 16 entered for this race: Take out Min, Un De Sceaux,Politologue & Fox Norton who are likely to run in Ryanair. Take out those Footpad has already beaten: Petit Mouchoir,Bally Oisin,Great Field,Saint Calvados & Brain Power. That leaves just 7 runners and of those there are 4 that are 33/1 or higher. So for me Footpad is the best each way bet. Do not dismiss his chances of winning, he is still only 6 with room for improvement and he ran a faster time over course and distance on heavy ground than Altior did on soft ground the following day. On official ratings he needs to improve 9 pounds.
To be honest I think Min is more of a 2 miler than Footpad; Min needs a strong pace. They know that Min doesnt beat Altior so I think they were hoping Footpad would. I think Min would have won that race yesterday. When they ran Min oiver 2 and a half recently Ruby had to strangle him all the way around to get him settled. Footpad could be like UDS; 2 miles on soft or heavy but doesn’t quite have the toe for 2 miles on Good.
I’ve just had a few quid each way NRNB on Fox Norton at 33/1.
Fox Norton e/w @ 33/1 NRNB
It is the exact same bet for me Middle of March. I bet him midweek, and good to see that I’m not alone.
Altior has by far the best chance in this, but IF there is value it’s imo Footpad. He’s inferior to Altior by quite a way, but not as much as betting seems to suggest. Trouble is, that seemingly good price may well be more to do with liklihood of running. Mullins is a trainer who wants to win races and Footpad has a far better chance in the Ryanair. I also agree stable companion Min is better at 2m than a testing 2m4f, so might go the Champion Chase… and we know Mullins likes keeping them apart. But Min is no value because he’s inferior to both Altior and Footpad. Footpad’s participation/chance in the shorter race is not as much as “form” suggests and therefore imo impossible to judge value. Be one to consider once NRNB comes in, even if at a significantly shorter price.
Value Is EverythingGinge there has been money for Min against Footpad for the 2miler at DRF. Whilst the next two in the market are GF (Injured) and UDS- running this weekend, it could just be people backing Min as he’s the only other horse with a chance of actually putting it to Footpad, i wonder will this race partly decide which of them goes where.
Min beats Footpad, hardly much point in Footpad taking on Altior is there?
Are you sure Footpad is definitely a better horse than Min?
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!I’m pretty confident Min is better than footpad to be honest. Footpad was the best novice chaser in what was inevitably one of the worst 2mile novice chaser divisions for ******* ages. What have the 2 mile novice chasers done since stepping into open company? **** all. Min is a proven open company horse and if it wasn’t for The freak Altior he would be a multiple festival winner
I agree, I think Min is better. Wishing I’d put him in VTC’s TTF instead of Footpad. Still, his only hope of beating Altior in March is if he has made a bit more improvement since last year (not impossible- he’s a year younger than Altior), likes better ground, settles and if Un de Sceaux manages to soften up Altior a bit for him by giving him another hard race this weekend (possible but less likely as UDS hasn’t got his favoured bog). Basically for Min to win this all the chips have to fall right for him and Altior’s probably have to fall a bit wrong.
I like that view greenasgrass, inevitably altior won well LTO but it wasnt an “easy” race and if UDS runs again this week and gives him another race of it, could just slightly take the edge off him (unlikely) but you have to look for the negatives in any 1/2 shot or whatever he is priced.
Not the worst shout.
And yes on all known evidence so far min is far superior to footpad atm.
I think the money for Min will be because Tom Segal has tipped him up in the post
When Tom opens his mouth the bookies automatically drop the price
a bit like when Ginge opens his and I automatically get a headache….
Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
Altior is far from the certainty most of you make him out to be.
When you look at who he has beaten over fences he does not look so good. He beat the almost 11 year old Un De Sceaux 4 lengths. Having followed Un De Sceaux over the years I can safely say that on his best form as a younger horse he would have beaten Altior comfortably in that race.
In the same race he finished 19 lengths in front on Saint Calvados, yet Footpad beat Saint Calvados by 52 lengths.
When you compare last years Arkle with last years Champion Chase then Footpad was clearly the better horse, he covered the same course and distance over 5 seconds quicker on heavy ground than Altior did on soft ground.
At 9 years old you have probably seen the best of Altior, whereas the 7 year old Footpad is still improving.
Altior was in danger of losing both the Arkle and Champion Chase as both Charbel and Douvan looked to have his measure before they fell.
Altior is a very good horse but is no 1/2 shot, if Footpad turns up in the same form as last year he will run Altior very closeThe difference was Saint Calvados went off far too fast in the Arkle and burnt himself out
He didn’t even front run in the race with Altior
That said Footpad is better than he has shown so far but Altior looks as good as ever, don’t forget Altior nearly missed the Festival, was out injured, came back and had puss in his foot a week or two before the raceGaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
Footpad got that race handed to him as SC/PM went off at a million, also on Footpads preferred ground. The race being run at a million would also have helped with the clock figure, and he carried 6 pounds less than Altior.
Altior bolted up in the Arkle and the QMCC, Douvan and Charbel having his measure is a pure guess.
UDS spanked Douvan in the Punchestown race on ground UDS wouldn’t have favoured, yet Altior smashed up UDS on ground that favoured UDS. Altior didn’t get a proper reminder, one tiny slap on his hind and he was away.
Has UDS really aged massively over 6 months? Can’t have that myself.Fair enough you’re looking to get a 1/2 shot beat, we should all be doing that, but the form doesn’t back up what you’ve stated.
I’ve gone ahead and backed Min EW NRNB for this, and if I had accounts with anyone who hadn’t gone NRNB I would go for that at the longer price. I think he will head here and UDS to the Ryanair. Footpad might go here but he would have to win a top quality, strongly run 2mile race at the DRF by a dozen lengths with a perfect round of jumping to be a potential Altior-beater.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.