- This topic has 112 replies, 37 voices, and was last updated 7 years, 1 month ago by
.
- Posts
My most profitable acquaintance in backing horses only backs odds-on! His logic being I prefer backing something that is likely to happen than something that is unlikely to happen. The bookies definitely don’t want everyone backing odds on that’s for sure. He will often take an even money shot and place back it at 1/5. He works hard at it though, places high stakes and doesn’t get depressed when getting beaten. Those conditions don’t apply to too many people I would hazard. Try a case study with tiny stakes if you want to see where it gets you
No getting away from the fact that barring illness, accident or an unfortunate mishap
in the race,(and I don’t wish for any of those) Altior should take this. I get where you’re
coming from Jasalong, but 1/2 with 2 months to go is just not my kind of betting. I’m sure
there will still be a few odds on backers that still have nightmares about Annie Power
sickeningly coming down at the last in the Mares’ Hurdle with the race at her mercy.
Anyone who is big odds on backer would have been out a lot of cash no doubt, and that’s
part of he problem with backing odds on, one loss like that means you are playing catch
up for some time. Each to their own I suppose.As for this years race, I’m taking the view that Altior wins, so it’s a case of trying
to get a bit of value E/W, and I hope I’ve maybe unearthed a bit of a dark horse with
Pat Fahy’s Castlegrace Paddy at 50/1 NRNB with Bet365. He took Footpad
on at Punchestown in April and was well beaten, but Fahy said he wasn’t quite right and
he thought he came back a different horse when he bolted up 1st time out in the Hilly Way
Chase at Cork, with Doctor Pheonix and Special Tiara trailing over 16L behind. On his
only run since then, in the Grade 1 Sugar Paddy Chase at Leopadrstown in December, he was
again some 5 1/2L behind Footpad, but he was running on well at the finish and the ground
would have been livelier than he really needs. Fahy has already commented that he wouldn’t
want to run him on quick ground, and I doubt they will have Cheltenham any quicker that
good/soft. I’m not sure that Min or Politologue will take the CC route, so with a rating
of 157 it gives him every chance against most of the likely remainers (Altior aside). I
think that he’s definitely a bit of value at those odds.Jasolong, i thought this with Sprinter Sacre one day + he was 2/9f i said to my mate- he could be 1-10 he’s the best horse i’ve seen.
What happened? PU and had his heart problem….Obviously this doesn’t happen all the time, but i just thought i’d share a very similar horse + experience.
I didn’t back it in the end as i just didn’t think it was worthwhile for all i thought he was nigh on a certainty.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!There is only one certainty in the racing game and that isnt running til the Friday.
Kinver Edge in the 5 25 Wolv is a better bet than altior. Both 1/2 on.
Kinver Edge in the 5 25 Wolv is a better bet than altior. Both 1/2 on.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!I see that got beat Jack at odds of 4/11 which would surely only emphasize my statement that the only certainty in racing runs on the Friday.
4/9, coincidentally, was the SP for the QMCC hot favourite 2 years ago. Had hacked up in the Supreme and the Arkle, unbeaten in 13 starts for Mullins, said by him to be perhaps the best horse he’d ever had. Didn’t have a stellar field to beat; basically couldn’t lose…
You guys aren’t really answering the value question you’re just saying it could lose and no odds on shots are certainties. I’ve already said it’s 80%+ chance of winning not 100%.
I’m saying from a value point of view that 80% is higher than 69.4% therefore it’s good value? It’s nrnb aswell big G so the fact the festival is 2 months away doesn’t matter.I’ve bet it at bigger prices for this so that’s probably the reason why I wouldn’t now.
Those that are against backing it… do you think it’s less than 69.4% of winning? If so what percentage?
I get your question Jasalong, and I take your point about NRNB in this case, I was making
more of a general point about odds on ante post betting. From a personal point of view, I
wouldn’t be interested in investing enough to make a win anything other than enough to buy
a decent dinner. You’re probably right, he may well be 80% likely to win the race, and that
being the case by definition he may well be the Value. I also get your point that people,
myself included, invest in the stock market or other securities, and are happy to take even
smaller percentage returns. All I would say is that thankfully my ventures into that area
don’t have to jump fences, although I’ll grant you that Brexit is a bit of a bloody hurdle.
If I were in the JP McManus bracket, and could risk 20 grand in the knowledge that it wouldn’t
hurt me if the worst happened, would I have a go?, perhaps. I’m just happy to watch horses the
like of Altior and Sprinter, who don’t come around too often, without the added handicap of my
money on their back. But going back to your original posted question, yes you have a point.Hes value at current price nrnb for sure jas, hes more likely to be 1/3-3/10 the day of and you can get 4/9 NRNB atm so yes, he definitely has a better chance than the current price suggests, people will say he will get taken on, but he wont, skybet etc will do what they did at the weekend max £5 on the distance dependant on how many customers there is.
SO yes, I would back him at 4/9 nrnb id make him a 3/10 the day of currently. Without the nrnb concession you couldnt back at that price.
The stock market isn’t a zero sum game. Over time the average investor will make a profit- that’s what pension funds are built on after all. Over time the vast majority of racing punters, myself included, lose so Denise Coates can sprinkle sugar on her porridge in the morning. For me- shares ISA+pension investments is for security; betting on horses is for fun.
Of course Altior may be great value at this price. I’m not good enough at assessing all the variables to know whether he has a better than 69.4% chance of winning, which is why I bet for fun. Like bigG, in most of these types of big races if I really like the hot favourite I pull up to the telly with a cup of tea and a biscuit and just look forward to a brilliant horse jumping superbly. There’s the joy in it for me.
In this race I actually do have a bet – Min EW. I think that might be a better bet at the prices than Altior to win.
Back him in running; last year it looked like Min was cruising and Altior was in trouble; I’d say you would have got better than 1/3 or even 4/9 at that stage..
Yeah that makes sense vautour although im only referring directly to jas asking if its value, 4/9 nrnb currently, which it is as he should be arguably shorter under the nrnb terms.
Back him in running; last year it looked like Min was cruising and Altior was in trouble; I’d say you would have got better than 1/3 or even 4/9 at that stage..Not sure there will be a travelly thing like Min in this years- what price does Altior go off? People know how he travels these days, so i would doubt the in play will be that big tbh.
I’d say he’s value now.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!I don’t agree that 1/3 or a 4/9 shot in a jumps race is necessarily a certainty. Who’s to say he will definitely not break a blood vessel for example. No one can account for that.
Not a bet for me.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.