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Good post Sea Pigeon, it’s always good to see someone sticking their neck out.
I think Altior will be a good thing regardless of his odds, but good luck to you.
Don’t think either Douvan or Charbel would have beaten Altior last year, and while UDS is unlikley to be getting any better at his age, I thought it was his best ever jumping performance. My frustration with Altior is keeping him at 2 miles; he seems to be stronger at the nen of each race, and staying chasing is more competitive, prestigious and lucrative than 2-mile chasing. 2 mile chasing is even behind 2 mile hurdling in the pecking order.
Bit harsh, i personally think theres as much prestige at 2m as any other division, not sure where it sais 2mile hurdling is more competitive? Considering the divison has been somewhat lacking for a few years
The CC field last season was about as good as it gets, just one horse is superior..
He should never be stepped up IMO
“ looked to have his measure before they fell “
on pretty much everything we’ve seen of Altior’s chasing career, I think it’s not impudent to say he’d have beaten both Charbel and Douvan had they stayed on their feet as nothing can match his finish on an incline.
At both Cheltenham and Sandown, horses have been upsides jumping the last and yet finished 4, 5, 6 lengths behind crossing the line
Footpad had another over reach on his 2nd run. Very unlucky for it to happen twice in a row. On the basis he bounces back next run I think he will go Queen Mother and Min Ryanair.
Its all down to opinions befair
Personally i prefer the CH to the gold cup and id rather watch a CC than a GC
This fascination with everything needing to be stepped up to 3m+ is just a bit silly,
im sure hendo would laugh in your face literally that theres no prestige in what altior is currently doing lol
I didn’t say there was no prestige, just less prestige, ; the pecking order, according to money/competitiveness/prestige, staying chasers, 2-mile hurdlers, 2-mile chasers, finally staying hurdlers. Obviously some generations are stronger than others, e.g the Monksfield/Night Nurse/Sea Pigeon or Moscow Flyer/Azertuiop/Well Chief eras.
I’m tipping Altior for this, looks a nice type
I think you might be on to something TWM. He’s certainly one to consider each way, that’s for sure. He’s athletic, he’s maturing nicely. You could say he’s only been winning in small fields but if can just come on for the run he should have a fighter’s chance.
A guy down the pub once offered me a tip with similar reasoning
Kauto Star, odds on at Sandown
I tried not to laugh…
There’s a rumour going round Altior has been working well alongside Buvuer D’air at home!
Totally agree Altior is a cracking each way bet for this. Dark horse of the race.
There’s a goos selling chase next month. Would like to see him run one more time before betting him though , didn’t like how he jumped to left a bitI dunno, never heard of that young chap Henderson…would he know how to prepare a horse for the festival? OK it might be working well alongside whatever collection of donkeys he has at home but I’d rather go with something from a more established yard.
Been thinking about Altior. You can quite easily get 4/9 NRNB. 4/9 roughly equates to 69.4% chance of winning. (Hope my maths is correct!)
There’s people out there who blindly wouldn’t back odds on shot and I understand that. But it got me thinking, can you still have ‘value’ with an odds on shot? The answer surely must be yes? And surely if you’re serious about gambling and want long term profit then you will always look for ‘value’.Some people will say the returns aren’t good enough. But with long term gambling you’re surely not trying to be a millionaire overnight. Some people invest in the stock market and are absolutely buzzing with a 10% ROI.
Altior would be a 44% ROI.So it begs the question is Altior better than 69.4% likely of winning the champion chase ?
I genuinely think he is. What could happen for him to lose and what are the chances of these thing a happening?
Will he fall? Very unlikely
Will he get brought down? Very unlikely
Does he go on any ground? Yes
Is he the best horse ? By some margin
Will he get injured during the race? Very unlikely.
Any other obscure thing to happen for him to lose? Very low percentage chance again.All in all I think he’s above 80% likely to win the CC.
But then I wouldn’t back him at 4/9. I’m trying to work out why I wouldn’t if I think he’s good ‘value’
Just something I was thinking about, maybe others have a view on this question?
I’ve just mind ****** myself
Also is there anyone out there who think Altior has less than 69.4% chance of winning?
I wouldn’t back him but I’m not a serious gambler. I am not good enough at it to make a profit long term so I bet- usually very small amounts- for fun and the buzz. I wouldn’t get much buzz from putting £4.50 on and winning £2 if all goes well. The buzz of winning £2 is smaller than the annoyance of losing £4.50 if the rare dead cert I back hppens to have a sore tummy that day or trips over some 100-1 faller or whatever.
I have occasionally bet odds- on but not often. It’s not as much fun because as I see it I’m not really backing the horse to win which is a positive feeling, more just backing it to not arse it up and lose which doesn’t give me that positive buzz.
Does Altior have a less than 69.4% chance of winning? I haven’t the foggiest which is why I am not a profit making punter. I had no idea Verdana Blue would beat Buv, for example. If you’d asked me that day “which hot fav will get beaten today” I would have had no idea.
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