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Hi Mike,
Great to get the perspective of Ruby Walsh – which must give you some comfort. Thanks for sharing.
The only thing I would say is that Coneygree won the Denman Stakes at Newbury prior to his Gold Cup success and the Denman Stakes, as you know, is a Grade 2 Open Company Chase. Hence it doesn’t really address the point that PP hasn’t raced in open company over fences.
It’s gold Cup day and Walsh is backing DEFINITLY RED at 16/1 for the win.
It’s certainly a tempting bet, even though the pedigree of Might Bite, Our Duke and Killutagh Vic are also in there.
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Djakadam
He hasn’t raced since December but is in great form at home. He galloped and jumped really well in the schooling at Leopardstown last Sunday. He’s already had two great runs when second in the last two in Gold Cups when he only found Coneygree and Don Cossack too good for him.
He’s had a great preparation this year and we’re very happy with him. A reproduction of his run last year puts him bang in the Gold Cup frame on Friday.
His last 2 gold cup tips were both unplaced just to put some perspective on listening to his opinion of the big race.
Maybe he is due a winner though if you are more of a glass half full than half empty kind of a guy.
CNC – Percy has raced in graded open company in last years Red Mills. Narrowly beaten by Our Duke giving him 3 lbs as a novice, who at the time was 3rd or 4th favourite for The Gold Cup.
Not bad form I would say.
Our Duke was a top draw novice chaser. He won a leopardstown grade 1 and also the Irish grand national off 153 in his novice season as a 7yo.
He never once ran a good race in his 2nd season chasing except against Presenting Percy. But it’s very possible that form isnt as strong as some may think as he was giving PP 7lb and the form in all other races was very poor though of course there were excuses.
Was 7th of 8 and last to finish in a race that featured road to respect,Alpha Des Obeaux and the winner Ourlander.
Apparently suffered with kissing spine hence the poor run.
Then reappeared 3 months later in a leopardstown grade 1 and was beaten by edwulf, Outlander and djakadam. Almost 16 lengths behind the winner edwulf.2 runs that did not justify his place as one of the most fancied horses for gold cup regardless of the excuse for the first race.
Then dropped in trip for a 2 1/2 mile race against PP. For both horses this was ultimately a warm up for the festival, Our Duke was giving him 7lb over an unsuitable trip made a few mistakes, one of them a bad one and still beat Pp had raced twice that season over 2m6 so the 2m 4 was more in his favour.
Our Duke then ran a shocker in the gold cup and got pulled up.
Sadly died a month later.
Not necessarily as strong form as many seem to make it out to be.
PP may be the second coming or he may not be imo but as yet I haven’t seen anything to suggest to me he is as great as they say.
Potato, you are right. By memory I thought that Percy had carried more than Our Duke that day, I was wrong.
You are very quick to knock other horses related form but oblivious to that of EE’s.
Time will tell.
Interesting tweet from Wayward Lad:
In case you are wondering about the stamina of Frodon, the Cheltenham Gold Cup trip is 3-mile, 2-furlongs & 70 yards. On Saturday, Frodon won over a trip of 3-mile, 2-furlongs & 101 yards.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!You are very quick to knock other horses related form but oblivious to that of EE’s.
I’m fully aware that EE has yet to reach the level required to win the gold cup however he is improving with every single race so far this season and it’s fair to assume he will improve again on March 15th which I think will be enough to land the race.
I am also fully aware that PP has yet to reach the level required to win the gold cup and have seen no evidence that he is going to improve this season though he may very well do.
I like Road To Respect but find his jockey to be severely offputting.
If this horse had of been ridden throughout its career by Ruby, Davy or Barry then I’m sure he would have won more races.Monalee can beat all the gold cup pretenders today, though if De Bromhead thinks he has a cheltenham gold cup contender on his hands then he can think again as Monalee can beat these rivals at leopardstown over 3 miles but he would be beaten by all of them over 3m 2 1/2f round Cheltenham.
Whoever wins today the gold cup market is going to change quite a bit after the result.
On all known form Elegant Escape has more chance of finishing last than winning the race. Would you like to offer me 100/1 on him finishing last Potato? Anyone who thinks Elegant Escape has any chance of winning should consider betting in running because 3 or 4 fences out he will likely be outpaced as seen in his last 2 races at Cheltenham and will be trading at 100/1+
For me this is a 2 horse race, Native River will try and make all and may well succeed, the only danger is the very classy Presenting Percy who will need to run a career best to win.
Sean Flanagan not a worry for me. Got into a bit of trouble in the Savills but that was the exception rather than the norm. We normally export our middle of the road jockeys to England anyway, so they can pick up a few rides in the already too crowded UK fixtures schedule
You seem very shrewd my friend, I was very concerned that someone as sharp as you gives Elegant Escape zero chance in the gold cup so have looked back at some of your previous replies and ‘big’ cheltenham opinions:
I trust all the Yanworth knockers will return to this thread to eat a large slice of humble pie after he powers away to win the Champion HurdleWas ultimately disqualified but only managed 6th ensuring no knockers returned to eat humble pie.
Might Bite is one of the worst value fav’s at the festival, he was 16/1 for the RSA after he fell at Kempton and all he has done since is win an egg and spoon race on as flat track.Slightly awkward as not only did he win the rsa he also went on to win the king george and was 2nd in a gold cup.
Can someone please explain why Buveur D’Air is favourite for this race?An unfortunate comment as he bolted up in the champ hurdle.
Dont worry team. We sleep.easy tonight.
Sean Flanagan not a worry for me. Got into a bit of trouble in the Savills but that was the exception rather than the norm. We normally export our middle of the road jockeys to England anyway, so they can pick up a few rides in the already too crowded UK fixtures schedule
England appreciates that you export your middle of the road jockeys to england.
I think as a kind gesture we should export some of our middle of the road rugby players to help you guys out.
Anyway both.De Bromheads are non runners in the Irish gold cup.
Hard to call which horse will come out on top now。 Be interesting to see what makes the pace with monalee out.During the last five seasons – Flanagan is 1-24 in Britain, 0-12 over fences, never in the first three at Cheltenham
What has he been given to ride though? I don’t think he has screwed up any with huge chances. RtR did well for 4th in the GC last year when still young and running in a bog which he dislikes.
A hard enough race for RtR there and he didn’t jump as well as he can. An early season horse to catch fresh perhaps. Think he might have left his Cheltenham race there.
On the other hand, as long as Bellshill isn’t jarred after that it should have done him good. Jumped better the longer the race went on and whatever about being right handed, he was quite straight today. Also a well timed run so no chance to think about idling and reinforce that bad habit. Extra distance and hill at Cheltenham should bring his stamina into play.
Of course there’s a big difference between beating RtR past his peak for the season and two other not-good-emoughs, and battling the field in the Gold Cup, but I’m quite happy with my bet.
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