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2019 Gold Cup

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Viewing 17 posts - 392 through 408 (of 621 total)
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  • #1395045
    Avatar photojackh1092
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    • Total Posts 3940

    GAG, I wouldn’t say R2R is a horse best caught fresh. He’s run perfectly well in December and in March…

    I am starting to change my view on him though. I was hoping he’d progress from his romp at DR and from a GC that was run on ground softer than his ideal- however, i don’t think he is. He is a very good 3m chaser, up there with the best, but i feel he’ll continue to just get caught out on the big days.

    Twitter: Jackh1092
    Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!

    #1395046
    Avatar photoMarkTT
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    • Total Posts 3080

    They don’t mean diddly squat even without prices etc

    If you want a horse to win a Gold Cup, you’re hoping for a jockey with better stats than those.

    #1395052
    Avatar photojackh1092
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    • Total Posts 3940

    Right so if a jockey has ridden 5 x 100/1 shots and has five 5ths to his name, he is a bad rider? The prices are an indicator of his chances in a race, would Ruby do any better with poor rides? Hard to be sure he would.

    Stats like that a fairly short sighted. Would i back a horse for cheltenham with Sean Flanagan on? Yes. Don’t see what is bad about him.

    Twitter: Jackh1092
    Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!

    #1395055
    potato
    Blocked
    • Total Posts 828

    If a jockey has 5 rides and they are all 100/1 then yes he is probably a bad jockey.

    Find me 5 100/1 shots that Ruby Walsh has ridden in the last 5 years.

    I doubt you would find any because even if he was on a horse who’s odds should be 100/1 the very fact that Ruby was on it would see it go off 33/1 at best.

    So if you do see a jockey with 5 rides in a row on 100/1 shots then assume he is useless and that’s why he only gets booked to ride 100/1 shots.

    #1395056
    Avatar photojackh1092
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    • Total Posts 3940

    If these races are at Sedgefield perhaps, but not the Cheltenham festival. Not all jockeys even get a chance to ride there. Flanagan rides for Meade, and thus will ride his horses regardless of the chance of winning. 100/1 was an example, but i am sure a lot of his have been 16/1 plus. Does that make him a bad jockey? Clearly not.

    Twitter: Jackh1092
    Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!

    #1395058
    Avatar photoMarkTT
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    • Total Posts 3080

    Have I called him a bad jockey, Jack ?

    #1395061
    Avatar photojackh1092
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    • Total Posts 3940

    Nope, but you know what i mean by it surely? :unsure:

    Replace it with “bad jockey at the track”

    Twitter: Jackh1092
    Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!

    #1395065
    Avatar photoMarkTT
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    • Total Posts 3080

    And surely you know what I mean by “ If you want a horse to win a Gold Cup, you’re hoping for a jockey with better stats than those “

    #1395067
    greenasgrass
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    • Total Posts 9148

    Flanagan’s best GB result last year was winning a G1 hurdle on Identity Thief at Aintree at 14-1. 4th in champion hurdle on same horse at 50s.
    Chase results
    4th Gold Cup RtR
    6th Grand Nat Road to Riches 33-1
    4th Ryanair 18-1 5th Betway Bowl 25-1, on Sub Lieutenant
    3rd in novice Grade 1 at Aintree on Calino d’Airy at 33-1
    9th Ladbrokes Trophy on Genieinabottle at 10-1
    No disgrace there. Meade just hasn’t had the top top horses to go to war with.

    #1395068
    Avatar photoSea Pigeon
    Participant
    • Total Posts 330

    As Potato is so confident about Elegant Escape winning the Gold Cup, I make this challenge to him. I bet you any amount you like up to £50 that Elegant Escape will not finish in the first 6. I also will stand you a bet of £1 at 100/1 for Elegant Escape to win if you will stand me a bet of £1 at 100/1 for him to finish last. Are you up for it?

    #1395070
    greenasgrass
    Participant
    • Total Posts 9148

    Also, if you’d sat him up on Native River, Altior and Balko des Flos at the festival last year I expect he would have won on all of them.

    #1395071
    potato
    Blocked
    • Total Posts 828

    Altior you would certainly assume he would have won on.

    Though the assistance of Richard Johnson for 3m 2 1/2f compared to the assistance of sean flannagan for 3m 2 1/2f is surely worth at least a length or two in Johnson’s favour.
    Might Bite may well have been the 2018 winner had Sean ridden Native River in my opinion.

    Ultimately it’s all fantasy and we will never know.

    All jockeys are not equal.

    #1395073
    Avatar photoSteeplechasing
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    • Total Posts 6337

    Flanagan’s misfortune today was – intentionally or not – that Ruby got Bellshill as close on the run in as he could legally be and Flanagan could not use his whip, and in full heat of battle a moment’s pause to change to the left hand would have lost the race anyway, whereas Ruby hit his 8 times from the last.

    Much talk of the whip lately and no doubt in my mind RTR was more committed in that finish then the winner – much more determined head carriage. Nor was that RTR’s favoured ground. I think he’d turn that around in an easy ground Gold Cup, Flanagan or not.

    That race today was won by the whip and, very probably, a cunning piece of jockeyship

    #1395075
    Avatar photoSteeplechasing
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    • Total Posts 6337

    potato, all jockeys are indeed not equal but there wouldn’t be an ounce between Nico and Richard Johnson imo.

    I suspect Might Bite’s Gold Cup was left on the schooling grounds at Seven Barrows when they ‘worked very hard’ to iron out his quirks. Quirks can be the spark that make the difference to a horse, despite the problems they cause.

    When asked by Nick Luck how he works on a horse’s flaws Guillaume Macaire said he never does anything, for the very reason cited above. He concentrated on the good things for fear of dousing the fire.

    #1395079
    ham
    Participant
    • Total Posts 3633

    The owner of rtr said that good ground today would suit him fine so i dont understand how he would benefit with an ease joe

    It was actually bellshill’s jumping that won him the race today he was gaining a length minimum on every fence as rtr dropped atleast one at every fence being to cautious

    Totally disagree it was the whip, it was the jumping and thats the name of the game…. watch the landing side of almost every fence and its hard to disagree IMO

    #1395082
    potato
    Blocked
    • Total Posts 828

    Will be interesting to see who lines up for the Denman Chase. Will Clan Des Obeaux really want a battle with Native River just 5 weeks before the big day or vice versa.

    Is Al Boum Photo going to take on Presenting Percy in the Red Mills chase?
    The distance would surely be in Al Boum Photos favour having won a listed chase over 2m 5f on his first run back.

    What will Presenting Percy getting beat by ABP do to the market?

    THE TEAM WILL LET THEM ALL PLAY
    WHILST WE KEEP TAP TAP TAPPING AWAY

    #1395083
    greenasgrass
    Participant
    • Total Posts 9148

    Monalee could go for the Red Mills too potato- could be a right dinger of a race. He, Percy and ABP have only had 4 runs between them so far this season, none of them punishers, so I reckon they could all afford to let rip over the last couple of fences over 2m4f if the ground is nice racing ground, without wrecking themselves for Cheltenham.

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