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Couldn’t believe nobody has started a thread on this race yet…
Until the question of who’s running came into my head.Rodin is undoubtedly a worthy favourite.
Rebels Romance’s international form must give him a good chance.
Both probably need a sound surface to run, but they should get it.Will Coolmore also run Continuous, Luxembourg or Los Angeles?
Is it going to be King George or Nassau for Bluestocking?
Is Emily going for redemption?
Will Sunway shine?
Value Is EverythingNo mention for Middle Earth? As of today the only remaining entry for John Gosden. He is the only runner in the field with Jockey declared (Oisin Murphy) With the field now down to 11 with 5 of those from the Aiden Obrien stable the race will surely have fewer runners. Little or no rain is forecast so those requiring cut in the ground may not run or if they do will not show their best form. It’s quite possible there will be less than 8 runners come saturday and at a best price of 16/1 Middle Earth looks a cracking each way bet. He will have his ground and we haven’t seen the best of him yet.
He’s a bit short priced for one my usual forays, but I think Rebel’s
Romance should go well here. The last time he ran in this country
was last December. It was a listed race, nowhere up to this, but
he won it very comfortably.Godolphin haven’t had the best of years but this one has run up
an impressive treble abroad. I think the 4/1 is as good as you will get
so I’ll have some of that.Rodin is a terrible bet at 5/4. In his 5 of his 13 races he was well beaten or ran a stinker and was favourite for those races. BlueStocking is a very frustrating horse, last year I backed her every time she ran and that last run finishing second cost me big time as the last leg of an antepost treble. She seems stronger this year but at 5/1 is no value and she is not a certain runner as the weather forecast is for warm dry weather and they are already watering the ground. Rebels Romance has done most of his winning abroad, his best effort here was a group 3 at Goodwood. At 4/1 he is very poor value. The other 4 Obrien runners will be doubtful runners and they don’t look good enough anyway.
Even though he has only won over here at Group 3 level, I wouldn’t say Rebel’s Romance is poor value at 4’s With a Breeders Cup Turf at Keeneland under his belt in 2022 and this year at The Dubai World Cup Meydan, winning the Dubai Sheema Classic beating Liberty Island, Emily Upjohn and Auguste Rodin.
I’ll be joining Graham (BigG) and taking some of that 4/1 about Rebel’s Romance.
Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...I agree Jac. Simple truth is Rebels Romance improved his form since that British Group 3. Doesn’t matter where he did that improving as long as he has similar ground should be able to reproduce his Meydan and Sha Tin form. Form-wise not yet in front of Rodin, but he’s within a length… And that makes 4/1 RR value compared to 11/8 AR.
Value Is EverythingYes Ginge agreed that 11/8 looks pretty limp when you’ve no idea which AR will be turning up.
I’m happy with my 4/1 Rebel’s and expect he will be more like 5/2 or 2/1 on tbe day, could even see him go off favourite.
best of luck ..Jac
Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...Its an interesting race. Pity there weren’t more 3yo’s taking their chance but its not a disaster of a field like the Eclipse was. I don’t know why but I just have a feeling Middle Earth is going to run a huge race here and I’d love to see him go well as one of the few progeny in training from Roaring Lion before he sadly left us.
Luxembourg must be a ew player here. Hans Anderson will set a good gallop them luxembourg will take over. If Wayne London saves a bit he can put in very fast furlong times. Can’t believe he is the price he is.
Luxembourg may need Ryan Moore on board to be ridden to full effect.
The more I know the less I understand.
I make Luxembourg 12/1, Middle Earth 20/1 and Rebels Romance 4/1 all excellent value.
I can see Rodin drifting badly.My 100% book for good-firm ground:
7/4 Augustus Rodin
3/1 Rebels Romance
17/2 Luxembourg
9/1 Bluestocking
13/1 Middle Earth
22/1 Dubai Honour
22/1 Sunway
50/1 Goliath
400/1 Hans AndersonValue Is EverythingLuxembourg is almost as good as Augustus. Half a length between them in the Irish Champion. Can see the point about being better with Ryan Moore on board, But, rather than being that much better because of Ryan… I’ve noticed this season – more than ever – how Coolmore second and third strings seem to be ridden for the supposed benefit of the first string. eg If the first string wants a strong pace the other Coolmore horses in the race will ensure it is a strong pace… And equally – seemingly ridden to hinder the chances of their first string’s main rivals. So the second and third strings probably don’t have the actual chance their form should suggest. So I’ve tried to allow for that. However, he’s still imo a massive price!
Value Is EverythingWhy has this thread’s title got the wrong King George and the wrong Queen Elizabeth?
I would be all over Bluestocking for this if there were some rain between now and Saturday, but it doesn’t look likely. With the going almost certain to be on the fast side, Auguste Rodin is clearly the one to beat but I fancy Goliath to stay on into third and he’s a cracking e/w bet at 33s.
Rebel’s Romance ew.
I am half expecting a rule 4 tomorrow with Bluestocking a NR with going good to firm. We shall see.
Sunway (14/1 e/w 1/5 3 places) stepped up on previous form when second in a decent time in the Irish Derby. That was on similar ground to that he will experience here. Not disgraced in heavy in the French Derby previously, staying on but not getting to the leaders and generally solid Group race from before that.
I la la la larve REBEL’S ROMANCE, he’s given me a few good days. I am reluctantly against him here though as I feel there is a reason why he has been kept away from Ascot over the years.
Can’t knock AUGUSTE RODIN, he’s had a few blowouts but has still been a star. I have been seduced by SUNWAY even if I can’t ever get one right with this Menuisier lad, same with that Kevin Phillyfartthefoy, bloody Frenchies.
Looks big at 14/1, close 2nd in Irish Derby not to be sniffed at, we don’t really know what these 3 year olds are compared to their elders, could be a notch above so 14’s is generous.
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