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We have 2 final CH prep races next week.
If as expected Zaynar wins in style at Kelso he should harden as favourite for the big race.
Punjabi is a likely runner at Wincanton, but I expect him to run a similar race to last year and for his price to drift.
Following these 2 trials Barry Geraghty will know which horse he intends to ride, when he finally confirms Zaynar as his ride the price should fall half a point or so.
Binocular looks a shadow of the horse he was last year, he seems to have lost the ability to quicken off a fast pace.
The connections of Celestial Halo are making bullish noises about his CH chance despite his 2 defeats this season, given that he seems to be a spring horse and prefers good/good to soft ground which he is likely to get then I think 16/1 is a good each way bet.
Comments in running for Quantitative Easing’s 3 races, reads a bit like Dunguib to me.
A similar effort tomorrow and you have the favourite for this race. (9/2) The bookies have trimmed the price today in anticipation of another bridle job tomorrow
Held up tracking leaders, going well 2 out, led on bit well before last, very easily
Held up in midfield, smooth headway to lead just after 3 out, quickened clear, on bridle run-in, readily
Mid-division, headway to 7th 4f out, improved in 4th before straight, led under 2f, pushed clear final furlong, easily
This horse is the real deal.
He has only just turned 4 but has already won the best part of 3/4 £million.
He is rated better than Kauto at the same age.
You won’t get 8/1 after saturday, the bookies will be ducking for cover.
The new favourite for the Arkle will be long run after he wins at the weekend, the bookies are already trimming the price, the 10/1 has gone. Will be 5/2 fav, get on now
Have done the following horses in trebles, fourtimers, fivetimers etc with William Hill
trebles @ £1
fourimers@ 50p
fiver timers@ 20p
sixtimers @ 10p
accumulator @ 10pQuantitative Easing 9/1
Restless Harry 7/1 (Albert B)
Zaynar 5/1
Kalahari King 6/1
Bensalem 25/1
Voy Por Ustedes 8/1 (Ryanair)
Long Run 10/1(Arkle)the 10p accumulator pays over £800,000
Alan King’s horses are back in form.
For me the best value in the RSA is Bensalem @ 25/1 each way. His hurdle form is within a whisker of diamond harry but he is several times the price.
I don’t think VPU will win the Game Spirit but expect him to run well and then connections will opt for the Ryanair. He is now down to 8/1 and will probably go off close to favourite in the Ryanair with a good show at Newbury.
25/1 & 8/1 £10 each way double wins you £2500 if they both win and over £200 for the place
The wide, open spaces and prominent racing position didn’t bother Pistolet Noir when he beat Barizan, so I can’t see that they’re suddenly not to his liking. Nicholls’s innoculation schedule may have had some effect but, on a line through fourth-placed George Nympton, Pistolet Noir hasn’t come on at all for his previous run.
Time will tell I suppose, but I have no qualms about laying him for the Triumph.
Are you saying that the reason for Nicholl’s horses currently running badly is down to them being vaccinated?
It looks to me that if VPU wins the Game Spirit he will be running in 2 mile Champ chase. Those Betfair odds look sure to shorten
Kauto is French Bred and at 10 years old is in the form of his life. Edredon Bleu won the King George at age 12.
VPU always shows his very best form in the spring, at 9 he should be at his peak. Cheltenham Festival form is 1122
If you were a bookie would you lay 10/1 ?
Last year in his prep race the race comments were:
Always going well, tracked leader 3rd, led 3 out, cruised clear on long run before last, impressive
Unfortunately this bottomed VPU for Cheltenham yet he still would have won had he jumped a little better.
At 10/1 each way this is the bet of the festival.
If I were AK I would give him a nice easy prep race and he will peak for Cheltenham and barring a fall he cannot be outside the first three
After much thought why Zaynar is best bet for Champion Hurdle.
Apart from Zaynar who is unbeaten everthing else has been beaten by others in the field.
Go Native has been beaten by Hurricane Run and Voler la Vadette and is likely to be ground dependant.
Binocular has been beaten by Punjabi, Celestial Halo, Go Native, Sublimity and Starluck.
Celestial Halo has been beaten by Punjabi, Solwhit, Binocular and Khyber Kim
Punjabi has been beaten by Solwhit, Celestial Halo, Khyber Kim and Medermit
Khyber Kim was beaten in 9 consecutive races prior to his recent 2 wins and in the last he was receiving weight.
Solwhit has been beaten by Go Native and Sublimity.
Voler la vadette not certain to run.So 13 reasons to back Zaynar
1. Best Champ Hurdle trainer.
2. Barry Geraghty to ride Zaynar.
3. Beat Karabak further than Big Bucks did.
4. Unbeaten over hurdles
5. Triumph hurdle is half furlong longer than Champ Hurdle, his winning time at Champ hurdle distance was faster than Champ hurdle winner.
6. Horse is still on the upgrade.
7. Nicky Henderson is sure he is a Champ Hurdle horse.
8. Price will contract when he wins prep race over 2mile
9. Price will contract further still when Barry Geraghty says he will ride Zaynar.
10. Horses that have won over further than Champ Hurdle distance have excellent record, ala Istabraq, Hardy Eustace
11. Zaynar has perfect blend of speed and stamina for race
12. Race is likely to be a strong pace on good to soft ground enabling Zaynar to settle in behind the leaders and pick them off on the home straight when his stamina and speed will come into play.
13. Fill yer boots now, will be around 7/2 3/1 on the dayBelow are the comments in running for 2 horses that ran in their prep races for the festival in 2008 and 2009.
Always going well, tracked leader 3rd, led 3 out, cruised clear on long run before last, impressive
Always travelling well, chased clear leader after 7th, closed from 13th, led 3 out, nudged along and in command between last 2, easily
Both ran well below form in their Cheltenham races having shown their best form of the season in their prep race.
One of the trainers has learned his lesson to spectacular effect, if the other follows suit then success may follow in the Ryanair.
Big Bucks was 4/1 with William Hill straight after he won last years World Hurdle.
I had him at 14/1 for last years World Hurdle after he won a handicap at Cheltenham doubled up with Kauto for Gold Cup.
If he wins this year, I will be having £1,000 on him for next year at any odds of 2/1 or more. Given that the bookies will think he may go back chasing next season they may be over generous with the odds. However Kauto & Denman may not have gone into the decline expected with 11 year olds. Exceptional animals do win Championship races at this age such as Sea Pigeon and Moscow Flyer.
Big Bucks will be back for the World Hurdle in 2011.
Champion Hurdle – Outright Celestial Halo @ 10/1 – £300.00
World Hurdle – Outright Big Bucks @ 4/1 – £400.00
Bensalem @ 25/1 Celestial Halo @ 8/1 Quantitativeeasing @12/1 – £5 ew treble
Quantitativeeasing @ 12/1 Voy Por Ustedes @ 6/1 Voler La Vedette @ 7/2 Punchestowns @ 9/2 Master Minded @ 7/4 – – – – – £2 ew fourtimers
Tataniano @ 8/1 Bensalem @ 25/1 Quantitativeeasing @ 12/1 Zaynar @ 9/2 £5 ew fourtimer
Kauto Star @ 10/11 (king george) Dunguib @ 5/2 Master Minded @ 7/4 Mikael @ 5/1 £30 fourtimer.
I think the value each way bets at present are
VPU @ 10s for Ryanair
Bensalem @ 25 for RSA
Imperial Commander @ 20 for Gold Cup
Voler La Vadette @ 16 for Champ Hurdle
Quantitative Easing @ 10/1 for Neptune Hurdle
Enterprise Park @ 12/1 Albert Bartlett
Kalahari King @ 10/1 for Champ ChaseHe was all out and just hung on. If Celestial Halo had jumped the last cleanly he would have won. That’s why he has been at double figures to retain his title ever since. Barring accidents Barry Geraghty will be deserting the champion for Zaynar.
