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Paul Townend ‘You’d be a brave man to say she couldn’t win a Champion Hurdle BUT y’know she’s winning grade ones at 2 miles. it will certainly have to be looked at BUT err she enjoys the other race as well and it’s always nice to look forward to be in the winners enclosure’.
Willie Mullins ‘Anzadam was the best jumper in the race, we may try different tactics next time’
Judging by the post race comments Paul Townend thinks Lossiemouth will be going for the Mares hurdle. The turn of foot mid race by Anzadam if harnessed a couple of furlongs later may have given a different result. If a change of tactics gets him in the winners enclosure next time he could well be the Mullins Champion Hurdle entry and Lossiemouth the Mares hurdle. I could see Anzadam getting an entry in next month International hurdle at Cheltenham. I think the 40/1/ 33/1 odds currently on offer have been an over reaction. William Hill have cut him to 20/1 and the others may follow suit.
There are doubts about 3 of the top 4 in the betting. Il Etait Temps may not show his best form at Cheltenham, Sir Gino may run in Champion Hurdle, Majborough has jumping problems. I am not convinced that Marine Nationale can show his best form in a true run race if the ground is soft or heavy. So this raises some questions for me. At this stage it looks like Nicky Henderson does not have a definite runner. He is the winning most trainer of this race in recent years and if Sir Gino runs in the Champion Hurdle then I could see him run Jango Baie. Since his breathing operation Jango Baie seems to have more speed and if he fails to win the King George I could see him being entered for the Champion Chase where he is currently available at 50/1, worth a small speculative wager. The second most winning trainer in recent years is Henry De Bromhead with 3 winners in the past 10 years, non of which were particularly well fancied in the betting. I have just watched a rerun of last years race and aside from the last fence fall Quilixios jumped superbly and he wasn’t stopping and may well have run Marine Nationale close if he had not fallen. Currently available at 33/1. The most impressive 2 mile perfomance this season for me was Leau De Sud in the Schloer Chase. His last run came too soon and his trainer is not running him again until Cheltenham and the current price of 16/1 will look an each way steal on the day. The other horse currently available at big prices that I think could run well is Only By Night with best price at 33/1. In receipt of the mares allowance I could see her run into a place or even win it. Nothing surprises me in racing these days and if Lulamba runs in and wins the Game Spirit Chase he may get entered for this race (as did Master Minded)
There are doubts about the participation of Lossiemouth, she may well go for the Mares again. The New Lion may get turned over at Kempton in December or Cheltenham in January and could get rerouted to the Stayers Hurdle. Sir Gino might not turn up at all or run in 2 mile Champion Chase if Anzadam in the same ownership shows his true form. Anzadam does not appear to have an alternative target. Mullins only 2 weeks ago was saying he was a real Champion Hurdle contender, he was odds on ante-post for the Morgiana but was withdraw and according to some reports that was because he had not worked well. I am convinced he is a whole lot better than he showed in The Fighting Fifth and if he redeems himself in his next race the 20/1 currently available will look very generous.
If The New Lion is going to run in the Champion Hurdle then he will need a prep race. The only grade 1 outside of Ireland is at Kempton. If he runs at Kempton then he may get beaten by Lossiemouth or maybe Sir Gino and could then get rerouted to the Stayers Hurdle for which he is currently trading at 33/1. So he could run and get beaten at Kempton and take in the Relkeel at Cheltenham as a prep for Stayers hurdle. I think he would win that and be the favourite for the Stayers. As we saw yesterday, anything can happen. Sir Gino now figures in the Champion Hurdle market even though NH was adamant not so long ago that he was staying on the chasing route. If Sir Gino were to run in Christmas Hurdle at Kempton and beat Lossiemouth then Lossiemouth may yet again run in Mares hurdle. It’s a whole box of frogs for antepost betting at this stage.
The Nicholls stable is woefully out of form with only one winner out of the last 29 runners.
Pic d’Ohry only beat handicappers in his last race and must have run a good stone below his best and he had a wind operation in the off season which is a negative pointer. Does not tick any value bets for me. L’Homme Press is best going left handed and needs further so can’t fancy him. Corbetts Cross could run well here despite the ground and trip but he won’t be given a hard race with the Gold Cup next month as his main target. So by default I would have a small stake on Le Patron.Willie Mullins when interviewed after Lossiemouth ran at Kempton said she may well run at Cheltenham at the end of January in the International Hurdle. Running his best two hurdlers (Lossiemouth and Anzadam) in the Irish Champion Hurdle in February could result in them having a hard race and damaging their CH prospects. Brighterdayahead may also miss the Irish Champion Hurdle as she would not beat Anzadam for speed so would have to make it a test of stamina by front running and taking the edge off her for Cheltenham. So I think Anzadam will run in the Irish race and 6/1 is a great price. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hyk442RNkvQ&t=145s
Anzadam is not a novice, the four runs requirement for County Hurdle is for novices. Owners and Trainers are reminded that from October 1st, a novice horse shall only be qualified to run in a Class 1 or Class 2 Handicap Hurdle Race if it has run a minimum of four times in Hurdle races in Great Britain, Ireland or France in accordance with paragraph 15 of the Weights and Handicapping Code
If the betting is anything to go by then Corbetts Cross looks to be running in the Gold Cup. He was 40/1 a week or so ago and now down to 16/1 with many bookies.
Imagine you are a racehorse owner who has two horses that both look top class 2 mile hurdlers and yet one of them runs in a novice chase and the other in a handicap hurdle at Cheltenham. This is the case with Mrs Donnelly who has both Sir Gino and Anzadam as well as last years CH winner Stateman. Both are entered in the Champion Hurdle and it seems that Sir Gino would only run if Constitution Hill was a non runner or maybe even if Stateman fails to recover his form. Anzadam is entered in the Irish Champion Hurdle and if he were to win or run well he would ruin his handicap mark in the County Hurdle. On his current handicap which would likely to be in the low to mid 150s he would look a good thing for the County Hurdle. So if it looks like Anzadam is going to miss the Irish Champion Hurdle then it seems likely he will run in the County Hurdle as his current odds of 12/1 will shrink. It’s also interesting that the most likely target for Mystical Power will be the County Hurdle if the betting is anything to go by as he is also vying for fav at 12/1. As for the big race itself I took some of the 8/1 on Lossiemouth following the over-reaction to her defeat in the Christmas Hurdle. I cannot see Paul Townend riding anything other than Lossiemouth unless Anzadam wins the Irish Champion Hurdle. Anything can happen in racing but it would not surprise me if Anzadam lines up for the 2026 CH as favourite and it may be wise to get a bet on the 2026 race as soon as odds are available and the 10/1 NRNB with Hills for this years CH and the 12/1 for the County look a no brainer to me.. Here is the video of him winning his most recent race: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3twbyRym3AM
These are the possible runners for JP McManus.
Fact to File
Spillane’s Tower
Corbett’s Cross
Inothewayurthinkin
I Am Maximus
Capodanno
Iroko
They undoubtably will have multiple entries at Cheltenham and we may not find out until a few days before their intended targets.If the ground is soft or heavy I think Fact to File and Spillane’s Tower will run in the Ryanair. I think at this stage Corbett’s Cross @ 40/1 and Inothewayurthinkin @ 50/1 are by far the best each way antepost bets. They will both stay every yard and we have not seen the best of them yet.
When you compare the time of Sir Gino 3 minutes 48 with that of the Desert Orchid Chase 3 minutes 51.73 then Sir Gino would have finished around 25 lenths clear of Edwardstone. When you look at how far Jonbon has beaten Edwardstone in their many meetings the winning distances range from 2 lengths to 10 lengths. Then you look at how far Sir Gino beat Ballyburn 7 lengths who gave him 6 pounds this makes interesting reading come Cheltenham. On yesterdays run Ballyburn using Edwardstone as a guide is better over 2 miles than Jonbon and Sir Gino is much better than Jonbon over 2 miles. If Willie Mullins entered Ballyburn in the Champion Chase I could see him winning it. This would cause a problem for Nicky Henderson as he has the fav for the Arkle and the Champion Chase. If Ballyburn is entered for the Champion Chase then Henderson may switch Sir Gino to the Champion Chase and Jonbon to the Ryanair. Masterminded won the champion chase as a 5 year old and I think the skys the limit for Sir Gino, he could probably win the Champion Hurdle, Champion Chase, The Arkle or the Ryanair. It will be interesting to see where these horses are entered at Cheltenham.
The stable are not confident that Gaelic Warrior can win this race. ‘Mullins said: “Two miles it seems is the chosen direction
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but then plans can and do change.
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Leopardstown has not been a particularly happy hunting ground; he scraped home in a handicap hurdle and then blew out spectacularly at the Dublin Racing Festival last season; coincidence perhaps.
The addition of a hood certainly helped at Cheltenham.
“While he is the best horse in the race,
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if he were to be vulnerable this year, then perhaps it would be this day, taking on horses who have all had a run, on ground that will be very different to his two best performances last year.
But I can’t wait to get back on him. He is a beast.”
Sounds like they have doubts about his fitness, the ground and the course so should not be an even money shot. My two again the field at average odds a shade over 6/4 are found a fifty and marine nationale
Willie Mullins in the post race interview was clearly disappointed with Lossiemouth, however his comments indicated he hasn’t thrown in the towel for the champion hurdle. At the finish CH was in front but he had very little left in the tank. If yesterday’s race had been run on soft ground at Cheltenham CH may not have lasted the distance and Lossiemouth could easily make up the two and half lengths as she was gaining on CH at the finish. CH may well improve a good deal for the run but it’s also possible that’s as good as he is and is a poor value odds on shot for the Champion Hurdle. This race was the first time Lossiemouth had encountered good ground, maybe she is a better horse on soft??, Holyhead port was closed so she would have had a longer trip over, did that impact on her performance?? Was she in season?? Lossiemouth is 5 going on 6, is she likely to be on an upward curve?? probably. Nicky Henderson has a record of withdrawing horses from big races, could this happen again with CH?? If CH gets withdrawn then you can throw away your Arkle bets on Sir Gino as he may well get switched back to the Champion hurdle. Two weeks ago he was 5/1 for Champion Hurdle, today he is 25/1. If you are on CH at good odds then a saver at 25/1 is wise. Sir Gino beat Burdett Road by around the same amount as did CH yesterday but he was going away at the finish. Question: If Sir Gino ran in yesterday’s race where would he have finished?? There is a long time for things to go wrong or improve for the contenders.
I backed CH today, however I think Lossiemouth is now great value at 8/1 for the champion hurdle. She lost a few lengths at the start, was only beaten 2 and half lengths and was closing at the finish. Cheltenham on good to soft and I could see Lossiemouth turning the form around in March. Willie Mullins said Lossiemouth could run again at Cheltenham in January, if she wins the Unitbet hurdle again I think she will go for Champion Hurdle.
I cannot remember a single winner or placed for that matter of the King George Chase winning the Grand National. So what has this got to do with the Gold Cup? Well if Corbetts Cross can run into a place today on good ground and it comes up soft at Cheltenham he will not be 33/1 for the Gold Cup. The King George has been historically a good gold cup trial and of those entered today I would not fancy any of them more than Corbetts Cross on softish ground in the Gold Cup. A good showing today and the 33/1 with Corals/Ladbrokes will vanish.
Good point Ginger. I looked at the 14 day weather forecast: The outlook for Haydock in the two weeks ahead shows the average daytime maximum temperature will be around 11°C, with a high for the two weeks of 12°C expected on the afternoon of Friday 8th. The mean minimum temperature will be 7°C, dipping to its lowest on the morning of Saturday 9th at 5°C. The next 14 days will remain predominantly dry. On the whole winds are likely to be light. The race may indeed cut up due to the likely fast ground so at this stage I have had a bet on The REAL wHACKER AT 16/1
