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Poquelin, Tranquil Sea and Barbers Shop: equal to even money if you back all 3.
Festival chase form: Poquelin 8/18 to Oh Crick, Tranquil Sea 6/20 to Chapoturgeon, Barber Shops second to Finger on The Pulse and 7/16 to Kauto Star (ALL RACES HANDICAPS except Barbers Shop in Gold Cup.
VPU, Schindlers Hunt and Planet of Sound: equal to 7/2 if you back all 3.
Festival Chase form: VPU Won Arkle, Champion Chase, second to Masterminded in Champion Chase and second to Imperial Commander in Ryanair, Schinlers Hunt third to Imperial Commander in Ryanair and fourth to Masterminded in Champion Chase, Planet of Sound third to Forpadydeplasterer in Arkle (ALL RACES GRADE 1)
When you also look at official ratings the second group have a higher average rating and overall the horses that are the first three in the betting are very poor value indeed.
Backing Irish horses that the trainers says is not running but then changes his mind is probably the best way to get a 100/1 + winner.
I had £20 on New Approach for the Derby when Jim Bolger said it wasn’t running but I didn’t get 100/1 was around 90/1 and Kicking King traded at huge odds when it was unlikely to run in the Gold Cup but did and won it.
Had a huge near miss with Sir Rembrandt when he was second in Gold Cup, had odds of 800/1 when he was a doubtful runner that actually ran and stood to win £16k for my £20 but he was beaten half a length by Best Mate. Was at work at the time and listened to it on the radio and was quite philosophical about it.
Mikeal D’Haguenet has traded at 250/1 for this years Arkle (The Ante Post King probably mopped that up)
Forpadydeplasterer has traded at 110/1 for the Champion Chase and 300/1 for the Ryanair, currently available at 170/1 for the Ryanair and is my selection
Clive….can you please tell us what your understanding of fractional reserve banking is?
Banking was conceived in iniquity and born in sin… Bankers own the earth. Take it away from them but leave them the power to create money, and, with a flick of the pen, they will create enough money to buy it back again… Take this great power away from them and all the great fortunes like mine will disappear and they ought to disappear, for then this would be a better and happier world to live in… But, if you want to be the slaves of the bankers and pay the cost of your own slavery, then let bankers continue to create money and control credit.
Sir Josiah Stamp
(Governor of the Bank of England in the 1920s)
Zaynar: Official Rating 168 8/1
Celestial Halo: Official Rating 168 16/1
Solwhit: Official Rating 167 4/1
Khyber Kim: Official Rating 165 19/2
Medermit: Official Rating 164 9/1
Go Native: Official Rating 164 9/2
Punjabi: Official Rating 164 11/1
Starluck: Official Rating 161 16/1On official ratings there is 7 pounds between the top 8 in the betting.
I eliminate Kyber Kim because this horse has no winning form in the spring, he has only won in Autumn/Winter.
I eliminate Go Native because he only has a short burst of speed and something is bound to go past him on the run in.
I eliminate Punjabi because I still think Barry Geraghty will desert him in favour of Zaynar.
I eliminate Medermit because he could not win a handicap off 10-12, he has no winning form in the spring, also when in receipt of 4 pounds he finished 3 lengths behind Celestial Halo in December and despite this he is 7 points shorter in the betting….I don’t get it?
I eliminate Starluck because I feel his only chance to win will be on really fast ground and he is unlikely to get it.
This leaves Solwhit, Zaynar and Celestial Halo.
If the ground is soft I think it will be between Solwhit and Zaynar.
If the ground is fast I think it will between Zaynar and Celestial Halo
If the ground is good to soft I don’t know
1. Stop horses from going to stud until age 5. We would then get another 2 years of Sea The Stars.
2. Have 2 festivals a year at Cheltenham, A winter and Summer Gold Cup and Champion Hurdle
3. Introduce 1/4 mile sprints and 1 mile /1.5 mile hurdle races.
4. Build some new jumps courses that are a mile round where you can actually see all the action, You’d be amazed at the number of people who go to the races and actually watch on tv there.
5. Do what they do at the greyhound tracks. Say for a tenner you get admission to any area of the course, a £10 tote betting voucher, a voucher for a meal and 2 drinks, a racecard and a racing post.
6. Make Timeform put a selection on their race cards.
7. Get rid of all the snobbishness like members enclosures.
8. Have a new pool bet with 6 handicap races with a maximum of 8 runners in each where you have to find a loser in each race.
Simple answer to the first question is that you would get a rate of inflation similar to zimbabwes.
It is pretty obvious that if a goverment could simply create "all its needs" then cash would soon have no value
Clive you clearly haven’t watched the videos. Go and watch The Money Masters and get educated.
When banks create money out of thin air with fractional reserve banking or by QE with the BOE they are inflating the money supply. This money plus interest has to be repaid, so why is this better than creating money at zero interest with no capital to be repaid when at the end of the day the amount of money in existence will be the same with both methods?
I have watched every World/Stayers hurdle since Moyne Royal won in 1973 and if every winner over this time could be brought back to life to race each other in the World Hurdle, I would be backing Big Bucks.
Big Bucks is still improving and has already achieved a rating of 174, I could see him achieving a rating over 180 before he is retired, Paul Nicholls says he is as good as anything in the stable.
Those who think Tidal Bay has any chance of beating him are deluded.
If Long Run gets round without any serious jumping errors he wins, he’s already 4th in the betting @ 9/1 for next years gold cup when he will only be 6.
Kauto Star was 5 when he won his first grade 1 chase yet Long Run has won his at 4, his form with Tchico Polos gives him the clear beating of Punchestowns.
Can anyone recall a 4 year old winning a grade 1 chase in recent history?
Ok Clive, how to end the recession see below:
Firstly we have a national debt somewhere in the region of £1 trillion (more if you include pension liabilities)
Step 1: Cease the practice of fractional reserve banking whereby banks can only lend the money they actually have on deposit.
Step 2: The Government creates (out of thin air just like the BOE)enough funds to repay the debt. Because the Government is creating the money there is no interest or capital to repay. They also create say another £200 billion just for a kickstart to the economy.
Now I’m sure you’ll say creating all this cash may cause some inflationary pressures but it would be insignificant after all the £200 billion of Quantitative easing has had little impact on inflation.Most of the national debt repaid would probably end up back with the banks so the banks would have plenty of money on deposit to lend.
Step 3: The annual revenues for income tax is around £80 billion, if the national debt is repaid then income tax could be cut by as much as 50% if we assume the cost of servicing the national debt is £40 billion p/a. However this would be too inflationary so some modest cuts would be in order. The balance of the annual saving could be actually saved as reserve and to cut the rates of corporation tax and free government start up grants for manufacturing.
Step 4: The £200 billion raised to be used for a massive investment in Britains infrastructure (Roads, Rail, Schools,Hospitals, Sports Facilities and Council houses.
The keynsian accelerator effect of this would quickly get Britain back on it’s feet.The price on VPU is being trimmed, think it will be 10/1 or less on the day. Still 16/1 with Coral only 14/1 Betfair. On it’s Lexus run Schindlers Hunt looks good ew value @ 12/1.
Barbers Shop flatters to deceive, only worthwhile bet for me would be a back to lay with Betfair, could see him trading at 2/1 with a couple of fences to go.I have just watched the Supreme Novices from 2009 and i have to say Go Native had the run of the race. I have backed Medermit, and i think if Choc delivers him late to go past Go Native, i cant see the Irish horse having the guts to dig in and get back infront.
I could see Medermit finishing in front of Go Native but the form of last years Supreme Novice is not as good as last years Triumph. What hurdle form is there from that race to support the first 2, whereas in the Triumph the form has been franked by Walkon,Mourad,Starluck and Reve De Sivola
If Mikael wins his prep race in style then I can see him vying for favouritism for the RSA.
If Dunguib wins then I can see the "Ruby Factor" and the weight of irish money sending him off a clear favourite.
Still available at 14/1 with Mullins sounding bullish about his chances.
I remember prior to Masterminded winning the Game Spirit prior to his first champion chase that Paul Nichols said in his column that the horse was working brilliantly with Kauto Star yet the horse was available at double figure odds prior to the Game Spirit
If we had an honest government then the recession could be ended within a few weeks. The present recession will get considerably worse as the country will inevitably get deeper into debt and a downward spiral.
Where is the wealth for a recovery going to come from?
Britain is already in Chapter 11 Bankrupcy
Gordon Brown is a puppet as is Cameron & Clegg. Whoever gets in will continue with the same agenda to take away your civil liberties, enslave you, destroy your health and take away everything you have.
Do you know anything about Common Purpose?
If not then watch video below
I think that Celestial Halo is as good a jumper of a hurdle as I have seen for a long time. Take a look at the rerun of his Triumph hurdle win and when he was beaten by Binocular at Ascot (this course not ideal for him). If Ruby can poach a 5 length lead at the start then I could see him winning the race, the horse will not be stopping at the finish, he was good enough to finish within 3 lengths of the winner in the St Leger.
So Ruby, if your reading this take the race by the scruff of the neck and make it a true test of jumping and stamina. Give the horse a breather on the downhill section approaching the 3rd last and then turn on the juice for the rest of the race.
