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Ante-post
Arkle Trophy17 points @ 8/1 (WH, PP, FD) Crack Away Jack
If this horse were trained by Nicholls or Henderson he’d be getting on for half that price. Top class Hurdle form, acts well on good or good-soft. Goes particularly well at the Cheltenham Festival.
Two of his main rivals look poor value. Sizing Europe impressed over fences. But, looked last term as if there was a physical or mental problem. Not finding much. Which could return. Tataniano ran an encouraging race first time up. But, is priced up soley on home reputation.
Value Is EverythingAnother value ante-post bet.
World Hurdle
42 points @ 9/4 (sportingbet) Big Buck’sBiggest potential rival Punchestowns goes over fences and Kasbah Bliss unlikely to race over obstacles; Mighty Man isn’t getting any younger and injury prone. The latter comment also applicable to Irish Fivefourthree and Inglis Drever is sadly no longer with us. Top novice hurdlers Mikael d’Hagunet, Pandorama, Pride Of Dulcote, Bensalem, and Diamond Harry all go chasing this season. Zaynar (apparently) more likely to stay at two miles (expect a change there). Seems as though Big Buck’s hasn’t got much to beat this season in staying hurdles. Possible dangers are the Alan King and Emma Lavelle trained ex-novices Karabak and Bouggler. Both need to make vast improvement to beat a top form Big Buck’s. Nicholls horse never wins by far, idles badly at times. There is always a chance one or two novice chasers coming back to hurdles. But as long as that does not turn in to a temperament problem, will be very difficult to beat. Must have a much better than 31% chance of following up his 2009 win in the Stayers (World) Hurdle.
Value Is EverythingAlso, they’ve said Mighty Man’s main target is the race at Aintree.
Alan King has got two Ks going for this – are you scared of Katchit?
Also Mark, would you subscribe to the view of Big Buck’s being the best National Hunt horse in training?
17pts, 42pts . . . ?? Bit strange. What scale is your staking based on Ginger? (i.e: what is your max bet?). Is a scale of 1-5 or 1-10 not adequate?
HH,
My stakes are directly related to the Table of Odss And Chances (see below). If I think a horse has a 17% (5/1) chance of winning, will put 17 points on at better than 5/1. If I think it has a 42% (11/8) chance, will put 42 points on at better than 11/8. And so on… I think it might be similar to "kelly" staking.
Staking can range from 1 to a maximum of 50 points.
If you prefur HH, just call it a 0.1 point to 5 points plan, that’s just the same as 1 to 50. Whether it’s 0.1 point or 1 point, 5 or 50; it’s the same stake. 17 points means 1.7 points in a 0.1 to 5 point stakeing plan (42 = 4.2).A point or fraction of a point can mean anything the viewer wants it to mean. Hope that explains the staking.
Logic in simple terms to explain the way I bet (value betting):
Every punter knows for each £ he / she stakes on a 3/1 winner, he gets £4 returned (winning £3 plus £1 stake back).
For every 100 bets of level stakes at 3/1 a punter must win 25 to break even (25 X 4 = 100). Staking 100 points and getting 100 back. If he wins more than 25 he will make a profit, less than 25 will result in a loss. Therefore, 25% = true odds of 3/1. So a punter should only back a 3/1 shot if he believes it has a better than 25% chance of winning.Gamblers want to know “who’s going to win”? But they should not necessarily back the horse with “the best chance of winning”. The important question is “in your opinion, who is VALUE to win”?
Bookmakers stay in business by betting to an over-round figure. In a four horse race with a competitive market he may offer:
A 11/8 (you need a 42.1% strike rate at 11/8 to break even), B 15/8 (34.8%), C 100/30 (23.1%), D 12/1 (7.7%).
42.1 + 34.8 + 23.1 + 7.7 = 107.7.2%
Working to 107.7% for an over-round of 7.7%.Yet betting is all about opinions, bookmakers prices might not be right. If after studying form of the race above a punter believes:
A has a 40% 6/4 chance of winning.
B 30% almost 9/4
C 20% 4/1
D 10% 9/1
All four adding up to 100%.Comparing the punters prices to bookmakers; the only horse at a better price (value) with bookmakers is D at 12/1. D is the only possible bet, despite in the punters own opinion having the worst chance of winning. Quarter of A’s chance, a third of B’s and half of C. With a 10% strike rate at 12/1 showing a profit. Where as a 40% strike rate at 11/8, 30% at 15/8 and 20% at 100/30 all resulting in a loss.
In some races like novices or maidens it is difficult to work out a 100% book. But being able to see a price as a percentage and vice versa makes it easier to make an informed opinion if something is value or not.
To calculate the percentage each price is worth, add a point and divide by 100.
So 3/1 = 3 + 1 = 4, 100 ‘/, 4 = 25%.
100/30 = 3.33/1 + 1 = 4.33, 100 ‘/, 4.33 = 23.1%
And so on.
For odds in decimals (what you see on betfair or tote) there is no need to add the 1; just divide 100 by the figure. 4.0 is the same as 3/1. So 100 ‘/, 4 = 0.25 = 25%Here are the prices and their percentages. Table.
Evens 50
, 21/20 48.8,
11/10 47.6
, 6/5 45.5,
5/4 44.4
, 11/8 42.1,
6/4 40
, 13/8 38.1,
7/4 36.4
, 15/8 34.8,
2/1 33.3
, 85/40 32,
9/4 30.8
, 5/2 28.6,
11/4 26.7
, 3/1 25,
100/30 23.1
, 7/2 22.2,
4/1 20
, 9/2 18.2,
5/1 16.7
, 11/2 15.4,
6/1 14.3
, 13/2 13.3,
7/1 12.5
, 15/2 11.7,
8/1 11.1
, 17/2 10.5,
9/1 10
, 10/1 9.1,
11/1 8.3
, 12/1 7.7,
13/1 7.1
, 14/1 6.7,
15/1 6.2
, 16/1 5.9,
18/1 5.3
, 20/1 4.8,
22/1 4.3
, 25/1 3.8,
28/1 3.4
, 33/1 3,
40/1 2.4
, 50/1 2,
66/1 1.5
, 80/1 1.2,
100/1 1
, 132/1 0.75,
150/1 0.66
, 200/1 0.5,
250/1 0.4
, 300/1 0.33,
400/1 0.25
, 500/1 0.2,
800/1 0.125
, 1000/1 0.1,
2000/1 0.05
For odds-on percentages, subtract the odds-against equivalent from 100.
So for 4/6, 6/4 = 40% , 100 – 40 = 60, therefore 4/6 = 60%For an Evens shot to be a good bet you must obviously believe it to have a better than 50% chance of winning, 21/20 48.8%, 11/10 47.6% and so on. Though a margin for error should be factored in. Few gamblers are 100% accurate, so it may be best not to back what you consider a true 4/1 shot at 9/2 but to do so at 5/1 or more. Alternatively, work out a race to smaller than 100%, (say 95%) which gives a built in margin for error
Value Is EverythingAlso, they’ve said Mighty Man’s main target is the race at Aintree.
Alan King has got two Ks going for this – are you scared of Katchit?
Also Mark, would you subscribe to the view of Big Buck’s being the best National Hunt horse in training?
I had big bets on Mighty Man in the Stayers Hurdle. Would’ve gone close to winning the Ten To Follow one year had he won. Have thought his better Aintree form was more to do with being ridden more prominently there than Cheltenham.
Karabak will certainly have at least two entries. Will do much better at 3m this term. Loved Katchit, but to me has not looked right since his Champion. The attitude is just not the same. Believe it is more than just losing his speed. Will take a chance and leave him out.
Big Buck’s is certainly the best hurdler, but we are lucky to have three fantastic chasers around. There is no knowing how good BB is. He idles even before he’s in front. Always struggles to win whover he’s up against.
Value Is EverythingPADDY POWER GOLD CUP
6 points @ 39/1 (Betfair) Hold Em9 points @ 28/1 (Betfair) Bible Lord
Hold Em been running well and not getting home over further. Now coming back to 2 1/2 miles, could yet improve despite his apparent exposed profile.
Now Bible Lord is without the 10lb penalty of Mark Grant, could well show what connections always thought he could do. Jumped much better for reappearance win. Acts well on soft.
Value Is EverythingPADDY POWER GOLD CUP
6 points @ 39/1 (Betfair) Hold Em9 points @ 28/1 (Betfair) Bible Lord
Hold Em been running well and not getting home over further. Now coming back to 2 1/2 miles, could yet improve despite his apparent exposed profile.
Now Bible Lord is without the 10lb penalty of Mark Grant, could well show what connections always thought he could do. Jumped much better for reappearance win. Acts well on soft.
With yet more rain forecast. Looking at the favourites, the only one who will be suited by more of a test of stamina is Ballyfitz.
My 100% prices also make My Petra value, but will wait and see quite how soft it gets. As she is unlikely to get home on heavy.
My Prices to 100% for very soft.
Our Vic 0.4% 250/1
Tartak 4.75% 20/1
Knowhere 0.75% 132/1
Chapoturgeon 9.5% 10/1
Poquelin 5.25% 18/1
Tatenen 9% 10/1
Tranquil Sea 10.5% 17/2
Northern Alliance 4.75% 20/1Ballyfitz
15% 11/2 (available at around 13/2)
Tarotino 7.25% 13/1
Il Duce 0.3% 300/1
My Petra 7% 14/1 (available at 22/1 betfair)Bible Lord
8.5% 11/1 (available at 28/1 betfair)
According To Pete 7.5% 13/1
I’m So Lucky 1% 100/1
Pop 0.5% 200/1
Three Mirrors 0.3% 300/1
Leslingtaylor 0.25% 400/1
From Dawn To Dusk 3.25% 28/1Hold Em
4.25% 22/1 (available at 33/1)
Value Is EverythingSo added to my bets on Bible Lord and Hold Em:
10 points @ 13/2 (Coral) Ballyfitz
Value Is Everything1:55 Cheltenham
Scottish National winner Hello Bud looks very well priced. Ran a good race first time up at just 3 miles on good ground. Today’s 3m3f on a stiff course on very soft should play to his strengths.
I also like Galant Nuit who finished well under his amateur 7lb claimer last time. But as he comes from a yard yet to hit top form, has just a half bet.
The other one I think worth a saver is Lacdoudal. Getting on in years but should get the benefit of stronger handling this time. Has run well at Cheltenham before.
18 points @ 7/1 (WH) Hello Bud
8 @ 7.4/1 (betfair) Galant Nuit
2 @ 17/1 (betfair) LacdoudalValue Is Everything2:20 Cheltenham
Greatwood Hurdle17 points @ 8/1 James De Vassey
10 @ 16/1 Khyber Kim
8 @ 23/1 Cockney Trucker
8 @ 5/1 Harry Tricker
2 @ 33/1 Simarian
2 @ 29/1 Gee Dee MenValue Is Everything2:20 Cheltenham
Greatwood Hurdle17 points @ 8/1 James De Vassey
10 @ 16/1 Khyber Kim
8 @ 23/1 Cockney Trucker
8 @ 5/1 Harry Tricker
2 @ 33/1 Simarian
2 @ 29/1 Gee Dee Men47 point outlay!I shall watch with interest!
All above bets on betfair.
Harry Tricker improved to win impressively at Sandown on good-soft, in first time cheek pieces. On that form will be hard to beat, but is a tricky character (you see what I did there). By no means certain to reproduce the form so only warrents a saver.
James De Vassey comes from a stable in good form. Won easily first time up and lightly raced, could improve again. That was on good going but had previously won on heavy when well backed. So should go it.
First time out is the time to catch Khyber Kim, then forget about him. Remember a scintillating hurdles debut a couple of years ago, after which I backed him for the Supreme. Never won again that season. Runs well on soft and stable again in form.
If forgetting a bad chasing debut first time out a good case can be made for Cockney Trucker. Won a good Newbury Novice hurdle on soft. Ran well enough in the Swinton on good. Placed here in the County Hurdle on good-soft. This stamina test at the trip should bring about improvement if over his fall.
Simarian is another with good course form (2 wins and 7th in Triumph) and a winner on heavy. Ran creditably first time out trying to give 8lbs to Starluck. Saver.
Gee Dee Nen is a winner at 3 miles. Ran o.k. on reappearance for his new trainer at 2m on good going. Could improve with this increased test if acting on the ground. made the running there and there do no seem to be that many prominent runners here. Saver.
Value Is Everything2:20 Cheltenham
Greatwood Hurdle17 points @ 8/1 James De Vassey
10 @ 16/1 Khyber Kim
8 @ 23/1 Cockney Trucker
8 @ 5/1 Harry Tricker
2 @ 33/1 Simarian
2 @ 29/1 Gee Dee Men47 point outlay!I shall watch with interest!
47 out of 50 APK or 4.7 out of 5 if you’d rather.
Value Is EverythingMy prices to 100%
Raise Your Heart 14/1
Medermit 15/1
El Dancer 40/1Khyber Kym 9/1
Simarian 20/1
Secret Tune 132/1
Silverhand 14/1
Culcabok 60/1
European Dream 50/1
Issaquah 40/1
Ronaldo Des Mottes 10/1
Tramp Stamp NR?
Glenstall Abbey 200/1James De Vassey 5/1
Cockney Trucker 12/1
Gee Dee Men 25/1
Harry Tricker 9/2Salute Him 300/1
Hearthstead Dream 500/1Value Is EverythingResults
1:55 Cheltenham
18 points @ 7/1 Hello Bud 3rd8 @ 7.4/1 Galant Nuit 1st Return 67.2 points
2 @ 17/1 Lacdoudal
28 staked+ 39.2 points
2:35 Cheltenham
10 @ 13/2 Ballyfitz 4th
6 @ 39/1 Hold Em 3rd
Bible Lord non-runner
-16 pointsDays Profit 23.2 points
Will have to think whether it’s worth backing EW @ 33/1 rather than win only @ 39/1.
59 points of ante-post bets will be included at the time of race. Was an even better start if I was one to aftertime, oops just have.
Value Is Everything
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