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2:05 Cheltenham
8 points each way (5 places) 12/1 (b365 bog) OldrickValue Is Everything2:40 Cheltenham
25 points @ 5/1 Tell Massini (L)Now:
6 points @ 7/1 (b365 bog) Quel Esprit
2 points @ 28/1 (C) Cappa Bleu
2 points @ 25/1 (betfair) NajafValue Is EverythingBeen looking at the Gold Cup:
This is an outstanding each way race.
Where the favourite Kauto Star is an odds-on shot (ideal for each way betting). What if Kauto Star did not run to form for some reason?
Second favourite unseated last time, seemingly scaring himself in the process. Would not be at all surprised if Denman was not placed at all.
Third favourite Imperial Commander is a doubtful stayer.
Fourth fav Cooldine may well improve, but has yet to put up a performance much better than the rest of the field.
Would not put anyone off backing Tricky Trickster if you still think he’s value. Is 16/1 enough though? Still unexposed, but will have to improve a good deal from Newbury to even reach the frame. Quite possible, but what price would Niche Market be in this?
The rest of the field are 66/1 and more.
I like 8 runners for each way betting, but take out the rank , no hopers Cerium and Mr Pointment. Mon Mome has next to no chance at this trip on goodish ground, does not have enough speed. Casey Jones and Calgary Bay might run in the William Hill instead. So how many are you left with?
My Will ran well last year, but doubtful he’ll be primed until April’s target.Carruthers arguably ran better than his position of second suggests last time. Got embroiled in a pace dual with both Madison Du Berlais and Joe Lively. Time before put up the best performance of his career when beating subsequent easy handicap winner Big Fella Thanks. So still unexposed. It is possible, if not probable he’s best on softer going, but that could be that he’s better with a test of stamina. Should get the stamina test here. Did finish second in a bumper on a firm surface. At 66/1 each way nrnb, bog, I believe he’s worth chancing the ground.
Might be worth taking 100/1 nrnb, bog, Calgary Bay too. I think he’s a bit like Khyber Kim in that he’s been a bit temperamental. But did nothing wrong over 3 miles on good-firm last time. Winning a class 2 handicap under 11 st 10 lbs. Stamina yet to be proven, but is bred to stay. From the family of Grey Abbey. Has been inconsistent in the past, but record on goodish going is pretty decent. There won’t be many better looking animals in the parade ring either. Might he yet fulfil his tall reputation? With money back if he does go to the William Hill ,100/1 looks too good to miss.
Both prices at William Hill. Realise you could get a bit better on the exchanges, but feel non-runner no bet is important.
2 points each way @ 66/1 (nrnb bog)(WH) Carruthers
2 ponts each way @ 100/1 (nrnb bog)(WH) Calgary BayBacked Cooldine 366 days ago before this thread started (like Binocular). Like Binny, don’t make him value now, so not a tip on here.
Do think Kauto Star is value so a saver.
11 points @ 4/5 (WH) Kauto Star
Value Is EverythingFoxhunter Chase
35 points @ 3/1 nrnb, bog (b365) Roulez Cool(Soldatino is nrnb too)
This is my other bet today.
P.S.
Remember Nortons Coin.Value Is Everything5:15 Cheltenham
With the rain at Cheltenham steadily softening the ground (won’t be worse than genuine good-soft)9 points each way 12/1 (b365 bog 5 places) Oiseau Du Nuit
Value Is EverythingGrand National
Already Advised
5 points @ 44/1 Hello Bud
6 @ 33/1 Niche Market
8 @ 25/1 Mon Mome
4 @ 50/1 Kilcrea Castle
78 @ 11/8 Winner to carry 11st or more
50 @ 7/4 Winner to carry more than 11 stone
8 @ 12/1 Big Fella ThanksNow a saver:
2 points @ 25/1 (vc) Snowy MorningValue Is EverythingAnother saver:
Just in case he gets in:
2 points @ 25/1 (B SQ nrnb) Chief Dan GeorgeValue Is EverythingGrand National
Already Advised
5 points @ 44/1 Hello Bud
6 @ 33/1 Niche Market
8 @ 25/1 Mon Mome
4 @ 50/1 Kilcrea Castle
78 @ 11/8 Winner to carry 11st or more
50 @ 7/4 Winner to carry more than 11 stone
8 @ 12/1 Big Fella ThanksNow a saver:
2 points @ 25/1 (vc) Snowy MorningAlready added to this list:
2 points @ 25/1 Chief Dan George (nrnb)Now:
With Madison De Berlais staying in and keeping Big Fella Thanks, Snowy Morning and State Of Play out of the 11-0 bracket, thought I’d reduce my liabilities at shorter than I got in.60 points @ 4/5 (B SQ) winner to carry less than 11-0.
Value Is EverythingHere is my workings out to this year’s National. Will be putting my 100% prices up later.
GRAND NATIONAL
Madison Du Berlais
(158) Well handicapped on last season’s form, disappointed this term. Flattered 2nd when others faltered after chasing winner in King George. Flat track should suit. Possibly best able to dominate from the front which is unlikely here. Acts on soft and good going.
Mon Mome
(155) Proved his fitness, back to his best when 3rd in Gold Cup; flattered by staying on past those who chased the top horses. Rise of just 7 lbs for winning by 12 lengths in last year’s National looks lenient (well handicapped). Given a real chance of becoming first since Red Rum to win two Nationals even if ending up with top weight. Won’t be 100/1 this time! Possibly best on good / good-soft.
Black Apalachi
(154) Irish trained. Going well at head of affairs last year, jumped well on the first circuit, not so well the few before falling second Bechers Brook (now only on 1lb higher mark). Also won 08 Becher Chase. Encouraging 2nd in Bobbyjo Chase (3m1f) latest start, staying on after being outpaced. Beaten 8 lengths but now 5lbs better off with victor and stable mate Vic Venturi. Effective on good and soft.
Joe Lively
(154) Not jumped as well or same enthusiasm since injury. Respectable effort when 3rd to Taranis penultimate start, poor 14th in William Hill Chase since, unable to maintain customary prominent position. Probably acted on any going prior to a tendon injury.
Vic Venturi
(154) Irish. Stayed 3m2f to win slowly run Becher Chase in November, raised 6lbs for that and form has not worked out well. Good winner of Bobbyjo Chase last time out. Not as certain to be as effective over this trip as his stable companion Black Appalachi. Disappointed in two Irish Grand Nationals at 3m5f, though too soon to say he definitely doesn’t stay. Best winning form on soft, but excellent 2nd at the 08 Punchestown Festival (at the time his best performance) suggests equally effective on good.
Comply Or Die
(153) Winner of this in 08. Most horses are on the downgrade at 11 years old, but did run well for a long way at Cheltenham. Beaten by only Mon Mome last year. Is now just 8lbs better off for 12 lengths. Slackening of pace after two front runners fell at second Becher’s probably did not help. Now 1lb lower mark than 09, 14lbs higher than in 08. Possibly best on good / good-soft going.
Don’t Push It
(153) Pulled up last time in Pertemps Hurdle, possibly not soft enough for him. Winner over Aintree’s Mildmay fences but can make mistakes. Proven at up to 3m3f. AP McCoy is apparently choosing between him and stable companion Can’t Buy Time.
Made In Taipan
(152) Irish. Ran well last time out at Navan, but last of 7 only start at as far as 3m. Highly unlikely to stay. Raced with give in the ground.
Niche Market
(152) No experience of National fences but looks an ideal Aintree type, stays and jumps supremely well. Only 9th last time in William Hill Chase, weakening late. Could’ve done without being upped 4lbs for close second in Aon. Possibly more improvement to come back over further. Irish National winner last try at 3m5f+. Races prominently, best on good / good-soft. Ridden by Harry Skelton who is unable to claim his apprentice allowance in this race.
Tricky Trickster
(152) Won 4m NH Chase last season (trained by Twiston-Davis). Now with Paul Nicholls; improved form to just get up and win Aon Chase. Given plenty to do and making up a lot of ground to beat Niche Market (who is now 3lbs better off). Very disappointing run in Gold Cup. Only 3 weeks to recover from whatever ailed him that day. Good jumper. Acts on heavy and good ground.
Cloudy Lane
(151) Trained by Grand National legend “Ginger” McCain’s son. Not at best any start this term, only 4th in Grimthorpe Chase (3¼m) last time off this mark. Dropped 7lbs since last year when unseated at The Chair. Joint favourite off only 141 when below form 6th in 08. Acts on heavy and good ground.
Dream Alliance
(151) Raised 9lbs for Welsh National win. Form worked out well, but jumping problems resurfaced next time. Seems to lack confidence in his jumping once making a mistake. Best chase form on a soft surface and acts well on heavy.
Nozic
(150) 9th of 10 finishers in Welsh National. Weakening late, which suggests he’s an unlikely stayer. Did not seem to take to these fences when only 12th of 17 finishers in Topham last year. Best form on soft ground and acts on heavy.
My Will
(150) Dropped 2lbs since last year. Looked a handicap snip that day and although 3rd was a little disappointing. Needs a return to form; that Aintree run preceded by a good 5th in Gold Cup last term, below form 7th at Cheltenham this time. Acts on any going.
Pablo du Charmil
(150) Ex-2miler. Proved he gets 3m well enough when 4th at Uttoxeter in May, but unlikely to stay 4½m. Fell last time which is always a worry. Acts on any going.
Backstage
(148) Irish. Improved form over the last year has come on a sound surface. Upped 11lbs for 10 length win at Ffos Las, jumping well. Below form on softer going, over inadequate 2½m twice since (bit disappointing latest run on heavy). Yet to race over morer than 3m1½f but races as if will stay further. 20/1, only 8th in 09 Fox Hunter Chase over these fences. Trainer Gordon Elliot won this in 07 with Silver Birch.
Ballyholland
(148) Irish. Won Perth Gold Cup (3m) last season by 11 lengths and Galway Plate (2¾m) by 8 in the summer. Both on a sound surface. Below form last time on very soft. Speed he shows means it is difficult to see him staying 4½m.
Beat The Boys
(148) Pulled up last two runs. Did win time before, but is Inconsistent and a poor jumper. Best form on a soft surface.
Preists Leap
(148) Irish. Dual Thyestes chase winner. Dropped 5lbs since only 14th of 17 finishers last year, faded badly from prominent position 2 out. No form this term and possibly lost his confidence jumping. Probably suited by plenty of give underfoot.
Can’t Buy Time
(147) Not the speed for 2½m on sound surface last time. Won 2m5f on soft at Cheltenham, idling on run-in. Appeared not to stay 4m when 4th in 09 NH Chase behind Tricky Trickster; going best of all two out. Fell in Grand National last year. Equally effective on soft and good ground, although stamina will be at a premium the softer it gets.
Snowy Morning
(147) Well handicapped, down 9lbs since 9th in last year’s race, yet not at best all last season. Often makes mistakes; good round of jumping (now on only 2lbs higher mark) when close 3rd to Comply Or Die in 08. Finished with flourish when 3rd over inadequate 2m1f last start, looked out of it two out. Shows signs of temperament but done nothing wrong at Aintree. Plenty of winning form on very soft, but best performances (placed efforts) have come on good / good-soft
Big Fella Thanks
(146) Best handicapped horse in this year’s race. Improved to win Newbury’s Greatwood Gold Cup (2½m). Showed speed, led on the bridle before idling; much more in hand than distances suggest. “Unseated rider” penultimate start, but more stumbled than unseated. Jumped well in the main when 6th, good run for a novice in last year’s National, now off a 3lb lower mark. Not 100% certain to stay. Reduction of pace after second Bechers meant less emphasis on stamina than usual. Certainly bred to stay. Ruby Walsh rides. Acts on a soft and firm surface.
Character Building
(145) Always been a character. Looked unenthusiastic, 12th in William Hill Chase. Idles badly and rider has to put his head in front close to the line. Won 09 Kim Muir Chase at Cheltenham Festival. Does not have the expected strike rate of one of his ability. Stays and jumps well. Been bought by the Thomson’s (Chieveley Park Stud) who bought Party Politics shortly before his victory. Equally effective on good or heavy.
State Of Play
(145) Winner of 2006 Hennessey (same mark here) and pulled up in this season’s race in November on first run since 4th in last year’s National. Small horse, made a few mistakes there and now off 5lbs lower mark. Good record fresh, so long absence not such a worry. Thought by connections better away from very soft ground. Won Charlie Hall on a firm surface, Hennessey on soft.
Ellerslie George
(144) Has won left-handed, but can jump right and improved to win Badger Beers Chase at Wincanton, making all. Form worked out well; but ran disappointingly since, including last of 7 latest run at Newbury. Made a mistake at the first on two tries over National fences. Likes to lead. Probably acts on any going.
Ballyfitz
(143) Another runner for the Twiston-Davis yard. Previous winner of Pertemps Hurdle, disappointing 13th in the race last time. Better handicapped over fences, proved he stays 3½m when good 4th in Blue Square Gold Cup (3½m). Needs to improve his jumping for Aintree. Acts on good as well as heavy going.
Conna Castle
(143) Poor strike rate and possibly best right-handed. Does not look the ideal type for the Grand National. Unseated latest start (2¼m, Feb) and very doubtful stayer. Acts on good and heavy going
Erics Charm
(143) 12 year old who’s on a hat-trick. Proved he can win left-handed under McCoy at Newbury, form beginning to work out. Jumps well when racing prominently, less well when behind horses. Genuine and acts on any going.
King John’s Castle
(143) 2nd to Comply Or Die in 08. 2lbs higher now but is 11 years old. Injured since and difficult to know just how much ability he retains. Given plenty to do over hurdles recently. National 2nd on good, also acts on very soft.
Ollie Magern
(143) 12 year old. Possibly on the downgrade these days, but ran best race since reappearance when 7th in William Hill Chase. Sometimes moody. Fell at 2nd fence last year. Probably acts on any going, poor mover.
Arbor Supreme
(142) Got poor ride last time, held up and still to be asked for an effort when winner had gone for home. Finishing strongly but too late (2m5f on heavy). Stays at least 3m6f, unseated penultimate start. Winner on soft and good ground. Capable of improvement.
Maljimar
(142) Runner-up to A. P. McCoy and Witchita Lineman in last year’s William Hill Chase. Hasn’t raced since being placed in 3m7f slowly run X-Country chase in December. However, weakened in latter stages of truly run event at 3m3½f. Has finished weakly more than once and made mistakes.
Irish Raptor
(141) Good record over Aintree fences, winner and 2nd in Topham (2m5½f). Unseated rider in latest Becher Chase. Struggled when racing beyond 3m2f and probably won’t get home. Acts on soft and good going.
Mr Pointment
(141) Becher winner. Pulled up, weakened latter stages of 08 National for Nicholls. Nowhere near best for new connections in Gold Cup, looking temperamental. Best run on soft, also winner on good. Has had breathing problems and broken blood vessels.
Piraya
(141) Not lived up to expectations since coming over from France. Poor run latest start in Racing Post Chase. Yet to race beyond 3m. Seems lazy these days. Acts on a soft surface.
The Package
(141) Very well handicapped and Improving, 2nd in William Hill Chase finishing best of all last time. Bred to stay; by one Ascot Gold Cup winner in Kayf Tara, out of a mare who is by another, Ardross. Jumps well for a novice. Quirky and not the strike rate you’d expect of one of his ability, done nothing wrong last two starts. Probably equally effective on soft and good going
Hello Bud
(140) 12 year old, but improved at 11, winning Scottish National. Thought by some best on a sound surface: but good 3rd on soft to Gallant Nuit off a 7lb higher mark (same as here). Good experience, but not recovered just 8 days later in Becher chase. Inadequate test of 3m1½f last time. Trainer’s son may ride, won’t be able to claim his allowance in the Grand National and will effectively be a 7lb penalty. Sam Twiston-Davis has ridden him the last 3 runs, best efforts so far under Paddy Brennan. Jumps well and races prominently.
Palypso De Creek
(140) Good record in France before coming over here. Only 14th in Pertemps Hurdle last time, better over fences. Good 2nd to Our Vic in Peter Marsh (3m on very soft), finishing well. Faded latter stages in Becher Chase (3m2f) behind Vic Venturi, racing with head a little high, possibly not enjoying these fences. Best form on a soft surface.
Abbeybraney
(139) Pulled up in NH Chase last time, possibly better on softer. Stays well, makes mistakes. Does not have a good strike rate for one of his ability.
Cerium
(139) Poor mover. Possibly flattered 5th in this last year. Allowed to close up when pace slackened. Somehow suffered fractured skull in race. First race since when outclassed in Gold Cup. Not enough promise to suggest he’s likely to run well here. Acts on a soft surface. Inconsistent.
Flintoff
(139) Part owned by the man himself. Out and out stayer who makes mistakes. Lazy and will be suited if it comes up a bog.
Royal Rosa
(139) 11 year old, 6th in Scottish National in 08. Lightly raced stayer, poor win / run ratio. Carrying 6lbs overweight, 3rd behind Vic Venturi in Becher Chase (November), disappointing since. Acts on good and a soft surface.
Silver Birch
(139) Winner of 07 National, 13 years old now and probably on the downgrade. Still going reasonably when falling second Bechers last year. Well behind in X-Country Chase at Cheltenham latest start. Won Grand National on good and Welsh National on very soft going.
Knowhere
(138) Fell in William Hill Chase, bringing down another horse too. Jumping is worse than ever this season (mistakes all starts). Now 12 years old and on the downgrade, though handicap mark reflects that. Off a mark 17lbs lower than last year. Knowhere near his best form; did manage a 2¼ length 2nd to Eric’s Charm (same terms here) penultimate start, but is inconsistent. Acts on good-firm and soft going. Failed to get around in 3 Grand Nationals, unseating twice.
Oodachee
(138) Irish 11 year old. Last of 10 finishers in Kim Muir Chase last time. Has run well (2nd) in the Topham and Irish National. Acts on good-firm and good-soft.
Whinstone Boy
(138) Progressive Irish chaser, winner of his last two starts, suited by the very soft conditions, making all and jumping well. Should stay further than 3 miles. Trainer James Joseph Mangan won the National with Monty’s Pass.
Value Is EverythingGrand National
Already Advised
5 points @ 44/1 Hello Bud
6 @ 33/1 Niche Market
8 @ 25/1 Mon Mome
4 @ 50/1 Kilcrea Castle
78 @ 11/8 Winner to carry 11st or more
50 @ 7/4 Winner to carry more than 11 stone
8 @ 12/1 Big Fella ThanksNow a saver:
2 points @ 25/1 (vc) Snowy MorningAlready added to this list:
2 points @ 25/1 Chief Dan George (nrnb)Now:
With Madison De Berlais staying in and keeping Big Fella Thanks, Snowy Morning and State Of Play out of the 11-0 bracket, thought I’d reduce my liabilities at shorter than I got in.60 points @ 4/5 (B SQ) winner to carry less than 11-0.
Another: With Murphy staying loyal to this horse, it’s a tip in itself, must be thought capable of running to form even with advancing years.
2 points @ 25/1 (FD, WH) Comply Or Die
Value Is Everything2:00 Aintree (betting without Big Buck’s)
10 points @ 7/2 (b365 bog) Bouggler
25 points @ 8/1 (b365 bog) Kayf Aramis(betting with Big Buck’s)
4 points @ 24/1 (betfair) Bouggler
6 points @ 37/1 (betfair) Kayf AramisNot much pace in this which may not suit the fav. Kayf Aramis may get his own way in front.
3:10 Aintree
17 points each way @ 5/1 (T) Nacarat
2 points each way @ 14/1 (generally) CarruthersImperial Commander’s record to date is best fresh. Not convinced about What A Friend’s temperament.
3:45 Aintree
11 points @ 18/1 (SJ) Reach For The Top
14 points @ 10/1 (WH) Island FlyerReach For The Top went well for a long way at Chelters but did not seem to get home. Now over a shorter trip. Island Flyer at his best would walk this. Is a big IF, Fav for the Hennessey last season. Young enough to come back, goes well fresh. Stable in very good form which makes him worth chancing at the price.
4:55 Aintree
21 points @ 8/1 Hey big SpenderUnder-rated, unseated when still going well in the Jewson off a big weight. This is his trip. Unfortunately only 7 runners.
Value Is Everything2:35 Aintree
18 points @ 17/2 Notus De La Tour (SJ)
11 points @ 15/2 Ma Voici (SJ)
17 points @ 2/1 Sanctuaire (B365)
4 points @ 69/1 Orsippus (betfair)Value Is Everything4:55 Aintree
21 points @ 8/1 Hey big SpenderUnder-rated, unseated when still going well in the Jewson off a big weight. This is his trip. Unfortunately only 7 runners.
Now:
15 points @ 6/1 (b365 bog) Mad MaxWas going well when making a big mistake 2 out in the Arkle, should be equally effective at this trip.
Value Is EverythingAfter a 69/1 winner today (and 6/1) just hope to consolidate tomorrow.
2:35 Aintree
34 points @ 9/2 (b365 bog) Ogee3:10 Aintree
22 points @ 6.8/1 (betfair) Poquelin
17 points @ 8/1 (b365 bog) Monet’s Garden
9 points @ 20/1 (b365 bog) Jack The GiantValue Is Everything2:35 Aintree
4 points @ 69/1 Orsippus (betfair)Excellent stuff Ginge,those prices are few and far between for a winner!
4:20 Aintree
23 points @ 11/2 (WH) Western Leader
11 points @ 19/1 (betfair) The Giant Bolster
10 points @ 14/1 (spoorting bet) ChamireyValue Is Everything
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