- This topic has 180 replies, 11 voices, and was last updated 15 years, 9 months ago by
.
- Posts
2:05 Ascot
7 points each way @ 14/1 (SJ) Qrackers
11 @ 10/1 (betfair) Santa’s SonValue Is EverythingMaster Medic won well here last time, but got the race run to suit. Held up in a strongly run race. Could get a similar race today.
Fix The Rib was the one to make that pace, but has others that could take him on here. Stable don’t seem in great form either.
Lord Henry was 13 lengths behind in third and is 7 and 10 lbs better off with those two. However, he seems to run his best races when able to dominate, unlikely here.
Santa’s Son won in the style of an improver early last term, but did not go on. Stable was never in good form, now much better. The one major worry is he can jump left handed, but worth the risk at the price.
Qrackers looked a good recruit to the Nicholls yard last term. Prolific winner in the summer. Not raced for 15 months and now with Venitia. If anyone can get a horse back, she can. Again, worth chancing at the price.
Oumeyade is another ex-Nicholls horse, does not seem as good now with a change to hold up tactics.
Cornas will give an early clue for Planet Of Sound backers. Barely got the trip at Exeter and this track / ground should prove to his liking. Just too short.
Enlightenment has a chance on the book but does not have a good win / run ratio.
Oslot is thrown in on his Irish form of last season, but has lost it since. Runs as if something is hurting. See betting market for indications of a return to his best.
My 100% book:
Master medic 3/1, Fix The Rib 9/2, Cornas 5/1,Santa’s Son 8/1
,
Qrackers 9/1
, Lord Henry 15/1, Enlightenment 20/1, Oumeyade 22/1, Oslot 33/1.
Value Is EverythingBeecher Chase tomorrow:
NRNB20 points @ 11/2 (VC) Hello Bud
Hello Bud now down to 9/2 best.
A couple of other bets:
5 points @ 7/1 (L) Idle Talk
10 @ 12/1 (PP bog) Royal RosaMy 100% book:
Hello Bud 100/30, Vic Venturi 5/1, Idle Talk 6/1, Palypso De Creek 15/2, Irish Raptor 15/2, Keenan’s Future 15/2, Royal Rosa 9/1, Cleni Boy 100/1Value Is Everything12:35 Aintree Grand Sefton
18 points @ 11/2 The SawyerJumps well, stays well, in form, what more do you want?
I’d be surprised if he is not made favourite. The only possible negitive is the four others who also like to make the running.Value Is Everything12:35 Aintree Grand Sefton
18 points @ 11/2 The SawyerJumps well, stays well, in form, what more do you want?
I’d be surprised if he is not made favourite. The only possible negitive is the four others who also like to make the running.Now a half and saver bet.
11 points @ 11/2 (C) Craiglands
5 points @ 6/1 (generally) Frankie FiggValue Is EverythingGrand Sefton Analysis.
If the front runners go off too fast, then Craiglands may be able to pick up the pieces. Finished second to Frankie Figg, but gets a good weight turn around. His hunter chasing should help with these fences.
Frankie Figg is another front runner, attcked the Mildmay course with some relish last time. Stable in good form and acts on heavy.
I backed Bible Lord for the Paddy Power, taken out of Paddy Power at start. Improved his jumping first time up under a new jockey (has another here). Would not be sure he can get around here. Big weight to carry on this ground and trainer is not in such good form as he was last time.
Valley Ride seems inconsistant and does not jump well enough for me. Stable could be in better form too. All those comments can be sid about his stable companion Always Waining (well handicapped at his best) who tends to live up to his name these days.
Pak Jack, lightly raced but has a fine record around here. Ran a promising race over hurdles last time. However, I suspect he’s best on no worse than good-soft these days.
Nudge And Nurdle I see no way he should be as short as he is this morning. O.K. he ran and jumped well last time and from an in form yard that has a good record over these fences. But should we ignore all the form previously? Can’t jump, has refused in the past, best with less give in the ground.
Dev possibly needs to lead. Best at 2m on "better" ground.
Fresh Air And Fun is another front runner that may need to lead to produce his best. Noticed in the past tends to make mistakes when headed. Pulled up last time on similar ground.
Corlande does not jump well enough, makes mistakes in most of his races, looked out of love with the game. Not the best of rides for a 5lb claimer. Stable in good form though.
My prices:
The Sawyer 4/1, Craiglands 9/2, Frankie Figg 5/1
, Bible Lord 10/1, Pak Jack 12/1, Nudge And Nurdle 12/1, Fresh Air And Fun 16/1, Valley Ride 20/1, Dev 22/1, Corlande 33/1.
Value Is Everything2:40 Newbury
13 points each way @ 13/2 (B365) Victoria’s Groom3rd
Will do a proper profit / loss on sunday, very little time.
Hennessy
Already advised
13 points @ 9/1 Killyglen
10 @ 12/1 CarruthersNow:
6 points @ 22/1 Casey Jones
7 @ 18.5/1 State Of Play
3 @ 41/1 Kornati KidValue Is EverythingMt 100% book.
Hennessy Cognac Gold Cup 3m2f110yds Chase Newbury
Working out for soft ground.
First line is best to worst chance, percentage, fair odds, (adding a “bookies mark up” to my prices as a check).1/ 16%
11/2
(+ 2% = 9/2)
9 11-12Denman
174 Brilliant winner of Cheltenham Gold Cup in 2008. Well handicapped on that run, despite now being off a 13lbs higher mark than when successful in this race two years ago. Needs to be better than last season when struggling with heart problems. Apparently looked well in a racecourse gallop at Exeter. Stable’s horses generally need a run to bring them on this term. Races prominently. Given one or two signs of planting himself at the start. (Stable form 6/10) 4/1 fav. R. Walsh
20/ 0.75%
132/1
(+ 0.75% = 66/1)
10 11-0Joe Lively
162 Genuine stayer last season, probably not far enough for him these days. Injured in February and only 5th in Ireland on return. Front runner / races prominently. Jockey booking suggests connections don’t think he’s not up to it. (SF 6/10) 40/1 G. Hawkins (7)
17/ 1.25%
80/1
(+ 1% = 40/1)
9 10-13Mon Mome
161 100/1 Grand National winner off a mark 13lbs lower than this. Speedier than Aintee suggests. Might have another primary target and need reappearance. Tracks pace / held up. (SF 6/10) 50/1 A. Coleman
13/ 2.25%
40/1
(+ 1% = 28/1)
9 10-9My Will
157 Suited by 3m2f and more. Ran a good race to be 5th in last years Cheltenham Gold Cup. Little below form 3rd in Grand National and now races off a 5lb higher mark. Ran reasonably first time out, never with much chance of winning when 15 lengths 2nd to The Listener in a 3m grade 1 chase in Ireland. Seems more exposed than most in this field, place chances but can’t see him winning. Held up. (SF 6/10) 33/1 N. Schofield
3/ 10%
9/1
(+ 2.5% = 7/1)
7 10-8Barbers Shop
156 Well backed in recent days to give The Queen a Hennessy winner. Seemed an unlikely stayer but ran really well 7th in Gold Cup at this trip. Not run yet in 2009/10 but excellent record fresh (2nd in Paddy Power Gold Cup last term). Should run well here if conditions don’t place too much emphasis on stamina. Held up. Wears first time cheek pieces which may fire him up too much. (SF 10/10) 13/2 B. Gerrraghty
2/ 14.5%
6/1
(+ 2.5% = 5/1)
7 10-6Killyglen
154 Won Mildmay Novices Chase at Aintree on final start in 08/09. Before that, pulled up in RSA chase after interrupted preparation. Below form at Carlisle on reappearance over a vastly inadequate trip (2 ½ miles). Stable is in much better form now too. Only defeats so far over fences when possibly not 100% fit? Second season chaser with potential to improve. Goes well on a soft surface. Held up. (SF 7/10) 8/1 D. O’Regan
16/ 1.5%
66/1
(+ 0.75% = 40/1)
10 10-6War Of Attrition
154 Cheltenham Gold Cup winner for the Irish in 2006, seems on the downgrade now but handicap mark is falling with ability. Ran reasonably when 3rd to The Listener on soft. Very best form on firmer ground but does act on soft. Held up. (SF 5/10) 40/1 N. Madden
14/ 1.5%
66/1
(+ 1.25% = 33/1)
8 10-4An Accordian
152 Looked to be capable of better when winning William Hill Handicap at Cheltenham Festival in 2008. Only seen once since, pulled up. Has looked a tricky ride and plays a silly tune when in front. Held up / tracks pace. Blinkered and tongue tied. (SF 6/10) 33/1 T.Scudamore
5/ 6.5%
15/1
(+ 2% = 11/1)
8 10-4Casey Jones
152 Just behind War Of Attrition and My Will last time. Best in of the three at these weights and may be better suited by going left handed here. Carberry stopped riding too soon (gave up) when staying on 5th in RSA Chase. Has been inconsistent in the past. Possibly needs more throttle to his engine. Held up / tracks pace. (SF 6/10) 20/1 N. Fehily. Tongue tied.
7/ 6.5%
15/1
(+ 2.5% = 10/1)
6 10-4What A Friend
152 Second string of Paul Nicholls and second favourite to Denman. But the price relates more to trainer’s opinion than form shown on the racecourse. Winner of three small field novice chases last term but flopped in the RSA starting second favourite. Owned by Sir Alex Ferguson, holds his head high and sometimes looks awkward. Held up. (SF 6/10) 7/1 S. Thomas
6/ 6.5%
15/1
(+ 2% = 11/1)
9 10-3Gone To Lunch
151 From the small but successful yard of J. Scott. Suited by extreme distances, insufficient test on reappearance. Laziness means he’s usually under pressure early. Though that trait possibly makes the handicapper struggle to get his worth. Went close in Scottish National and now off just a 3lb higher mark. Possibly at his very best away from very soft ground and goes well for AP McCoy. Held up. (SF 4/10) 16/1 S. Durack
10/ 3.75%
25/1
(+ 1% = 20/1)
9 10-2Snowy Morning
150 Irish, dropped 6lbs since running 9th in Grand National. Thought by trainer never quite right last season. Now just 5lbs higher than when 3rd in 08 renewal. In next start 7 lengths second to Neptunes Collonges in Grade 1 2008 Punchestown Gold Cup. Most form not as good. Not as good a jumper of park fences and fell when favourite for Denman’s Hennessy. Held up. (SF 9/10) 25/1 P. Townend
9/ 5.75%
16/1
(+ 2.25% = 12/1)
7 10-0Cappa Bleu
148 Won Foxhunter Chase at Cheltenham for trainer Sheila Crow. Has age and physical scope to make a better horse against professionals this term. Now with Evan Williams who was successful in this race with State Of Play in 2007. Only 3rd over inadequate 2m4f, none the less disappointing on return in October. Expected to do better at this distance, but stable jockey’s decision to ride his stable companion seems a negative. Held up? (SF 6/10) 10/1 W. Hutchinson. Tongue tied.
21/ 0.25%
400/1
(+ 0.75% = 100/1)
9 10-0Chelsea Harbour
148 Irish chaser who was only 6th at Cheltenham last time, does not jump well enough to win a race like this. Likes a test of stamina. First time blinkers have to work wonders. Races prominently. (SF 4/10) 50/1 A. Lynch
8/ 6%
16/1
(+ 2% = 12/1)
9 10-0 (9-12)Ballyfitz
146 Ran well enough in terms of form when well fancied in Paddy Power (2m5f, 4th). Staying on which suggest has a chance at 3m2f110yds. Will have to improve his jumping though, best efforts so far over fences in small fields when able to dominate. 2lbs out of the handicap. Carruthers coming out may help his jumping, but there are other prominent runners. Front runner / races prominently / tracks pace. (SF 7/10) 20/1 P. Brennen
11/ 3.25%
28/1
(+ 2% = 18/1)
7 10-0 (9-11)Kornati Kid
145 Found 4 miles too far in National Hunt Chase but should stay this trip. Progressive chaser up to that point and could do better in 09/10. Acts well on a soft surface. 3lbs out of the handicap. Tracks pace. (SF 6/10) 33/1 R. Johnson
12/ 2.75%
33/1
(+ 1.25% = 25/1)
8 10-0 (9-11)Nenuphar Collonges
145 Lazy but genuine staying chaser. 3rd to Wichita Lineman in William Hill Handicap at Festival off a 3lbs lower mark. Suited by a strongly run race. Made mistakes on reappearance, only 6th at Wincanton. 3lbs out of the handicap. Held up. Seems more exposed than most. (SF 5/10) 33/1 R. Thornton. Blinkered.
19/ 1%
100/1
(+ 1% = 50/1)
8 10-0 (9-11)New Alco
145 Last start on April 23rd 2008. Asking a lot to win this after such a break. Runs off same mark as when second to An Accordian in 08 William Hill Handicap. Now weighted to finish alongside if it was not for being 3lbs out of the handicap. May not stay this trip in very testing conditions. Held up. (SF 6/10) 40/1 M. O’Connell
15/ 1.5%
66/1
(+ 1% = 40/1)
8 10-0 (9-11)Niche Market
145 Good jumper. Progressed all last season and ended up an English trained winner of the Irish Grand National. Usually races prominently. Probably needed race first time this season, could be trained specifically for Aintree this time around. Races prominently. (SF 6/10) 40/1 A. Glassonberry (3)
4/ 7.25%
13/1
(+ 1.75% = 10/1)
9 10-0 (9-11)State Of Play
145 Winner of this in 2007 off this exact same mark. Though 3lbs out of the handicap here. Off a mark 5lbs higher when 4th in the Grand National final start. This his first start since Aintree, but runs his best races fresh. Stable jockey has presumably chosen State Of Play over Cappa Bleu. Held up / tracks pace. (SF 6/10) 16/1 P. Moloney
18/ 1.25%
80/1
(+ 1% = 40/1)
9 10-0 (9-7)Offshore Account
141 Prolific winner in his novice season culminating in Grade 1 Champion Novice Chase. Benefited from Aces Four (2nd to Denman in RSA) falling at the last. Well handicapped even with being out of the weights on that best run, (on a firm surface, though is a winner on heavy). Injured, lightly raced and little form since. Did run well for a long way in the last year’s Grand National . Tracks pace / races prominently. (SF 4/10) 40/1 D. Casey. Tongue tied.
Value Is EverythingWon’t have much time tomorrow so will put these up now.
Only one bookies prices gone up so far.1:30 Newbury
17 each way @ 9/2 (B365 bog) Bob’s Dream3:15 Newbury
15 points @ 8/1 (B365 bog) Doctor David
11 @ 12/1 (PP Bog) Song Of Songs
7 @ 4.8/1 (betfair) ConsigliereValue Is Everything2:05 Newbury
9 points @ 16/1 (SJ) Akilack
12 @ 11.5/1 (betfair) Isn’t That Lucky
3 @ 54/1 (betfair) Misty DancerValue Is Everything3:15 Newbury
17 points @ 13/2 (SJ, PP) Dani’s Girl
16 @ 7/1 (SJ, PP) Trafalgar Road
7 @ 18/1 (betfair) Know The LawValue Is EverythingGood luck in Douginho.
Have another ante-post bet
GRAND NATIONAL
5 points @ 44/1 (betfair) Hello BudScottish National winner, goes on soft and firm ground. Tough, reliable, seemingly still improving at the age of 11 (12 in another 6 weeks). Jumps brilliantly, including at Cheltenham last weekend over an inadequate trip. Possibly going to get course experience in the Beecher, from a stable that’s done it before, Twister. Related to two unlucky National horses in Esha Ness and Sandy Sprite, plus a Welsh National and a Scottish National winner, Stearsby and Willsford (as a 12 year old). All I want now is a reasonable weight, though I don’t think weights are as important in the Grand National as other races.
Another Grand National bet.
6 points @ 33/1 (L) Niche MarketPut in a good National trial behind Denman yesturday jumping very well. With his win in the Irish National we know he stays and acts well on goood ground. His third now makes him proven on soft too. Like Hello Bud, bred for the job too, shares great grandam Lady Artist II with Amberleigh House.
Value Is Everything2:05 Ascot
7 ew @ 14/1 Qrackers (SP 14/1) Foolish to make one coming from a long lay off as the main bet.
11 @ 10/1 Santa’s Son (SP 17/2 5th) Probably better going left-handed, so a poor bet.
-25points2:35 Ascot
28 @ 3/1 Karabak (SP 9/4 2nd) Well backed and ended up the price I thought he would.
7 @ 16/1 Lough Derg (SP 9/1 5th) Again well backed.
7 @ 11/2 Katchit (bog 4th)
-42 points3:10 Ascot
26 @ 7/2 Schindler’s Hunt (SP 100/30) Neither horse jumped well enough, though Alberta’s Run got a good ride around the outside and doubtful whether they’d have been good enough even at their best.
15 @ 2.4/1 Voy Por Ustedes (SP 7/2)
-41 pointsDays deficit -108 points
12:35 Aintree
18 @ 11/2 The Sawyer (SP 9/2) Disappointed Kennedy did not stay on board. With those in front of him doubtful stayers was not out of it at the time.
5 @ 6/1 Frankie Figg (SP 6/1) Jumped very well up until falling 5 out when going very well.
11 @ 11/2 Craiglands (SP 5/1) As I hinted at in my write up, did not have the pace, staying on too late. I felt a bit unlucky, but with this course that can happen.
-34 points1:45 Aintree
20 @ 11/2 Hello Bud (SP 100/30) Exceptionally well backed, just not over his run the previous week, weakening in closing stages. Jumped brilliantly and at least it will not damage his handicap mark for the National.
5 @ 7/1 Idle Talk (SP 5/1) Unseated rider early.
10 @ 12/1 Royal Rosa (SP 6/1 3rd) Another well backed despite 6lbs overweight. Only losing by 8 lengths and making up a lot of ground late on.
-35 pointsDays deficit -69 points
2:40 Newbury
13 ew @ 13/2 Victoria’s Groom (SP 5/1 3rd) Well backed, simply not good enough. Return 34.13 points.
Stake 26 points
+8.13 pointsDays profit 8.13 points
1:30 Newbury
17 ew @ 7/1 Bob’s Dream (bog 3rd) Backed at 9/2 bog, could not understand the drift. Ran well enough. Return 46.75
Stake 34 points
+12.75 points3:15 Newbury
15 @ 8/1 Dr David (SP 8/1) Disappointed after challenging two out.
11 @ 12/1 Song Of Songs (SP 8/1 4th) Initially well backed, again did not jump well enough.
7 @ 4.8/1 Consigliere (SP 4/1) Won easily. 1st Return 40.6 points
Stake 33 points
+7.6 pointsDays profit 20.35 points
2:05 Newbury
9 @ 16/1 Akilak (SP 11/1) Well backed, does not seem to have the right temperament, never going well.
12 @ 11.5/1 Isn’t That Lucky (SP 8/1) Initially well backed, never really looked as though he would get in to it.
3 @ 54/1 Misty Dancer (SP 25/1) Got double the SP price but ran poorly.
-24 points2:40 Newbury
10 @ 12/1 (AP) Carruthers (Did not run)
13 @ 9/1 (AP) Killyglen (SP 15/2) Running well enough until mistakes in back straight. Did not find much when asked. Pulled up.
Casey Jones was non-runner no bet.
7 @ 18.5/1 State Of Play (SP 12/1) Ran poorly, pulled up.
3 @ 41/1 Kornati Kid (SP 33/1) Travelled well for a long way.
-33 points3:15 Newbury
17 @ 8/1 Dani’s Girl (SP 8/1 5th) Backed at 13/2 bog, drifted probably due to her conditional jockey. Has a good record on her, but could not stop the horse hanging. Winner won well though.
16 @ 12/1 Trafalgar Road (SP 12/1 3rd) Backed at 7/1 bog, can’t understand why. Unsuited by the very slow pace, staying on extremely well at the finish.
7 @ 18/1 Know The Law (SP 14/1) Usually a good jumper, fell when going going as well as anything 3 out.
-40 pointsDisappointing day betting-wise but great to see Denman back to his best and stable companion, the best hurdler in training.
Days deficit -97 points
Total Staked 456 points
Total Return 353.08 points
Total Deficit -102.92 pointsValue Is EverythingFrom now on there is a slight change in the staking plan. So that more money is put on the horses I believe are better value. Stake is as always, the percentage I think the horse has of winning. But now it is plus 1 point per percentage point above my tissue. Something I rate as a 25% (3/1) shot who is available at 4/1 (20%), diference between 3/1 and 4/1 being 5%. So will get 25 + 5 = 30 points @ 4/1.
Value Is Everything
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.