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Hi Ginger,
I notice that you have only really posted info on a few races this weekend…are those the only races you actually betted on this weekend? I know you work on the odds table thingy (excuse my ignorance!) – do you price up all races on a card or do you just concentrate on the bigger races? Just intrigued to see how others go about there punting. Either way, I am enjoying (and learning) as I read!
Douginho,
Yes, I only bet on the three races this weekend. Do prefur to bet in competitive fields over jumps. Wanted to work out the 3:10 yesterday and 2:55 today. Things transpired against me having time to study, so no bet. When I watch racing from home usually bet in around three races on Saturday, fewer in the week with weaker quality racing (don’t bet every day). If I go racing it’s usually around three or four betting races.
I don’t "price up" every race I bet in, novices and maidens on the flat I do it by a general feel of what’s value. Though do study the race just as much.
We are all learning all the time Douginho.
If you want to learn more about the "odds table thingy", take a look at the 5th post in this thread which now has an explanation that I prepared for something else.
Value Is Everything2:20 Cheltenham
Greatwood Hurdle17 points @ 8/1 James De Vassey 4th
10 @ 16/1 Khyber Kim 1st Return 164.4 points
8 @ 23/1 Cockney Trucker
8 @ 5/1 Harry Tricker 2nd
2 @ 33/1 Simarian
2 @ 29/1 Gee Dee MenNON RUNNER
Staked 45 points
+ 119.4 points
With those backed going off at 6/1 James, 9/1 Khyber, 14/1 Cockney, 6/1 Harry and 25/1 Simarian the race had a pleasing look to it all round.
My betfair account tells me that taking the reduction factors in to consideration the new price settled was 15.44/1 for Khyber Kim so will call it that.
Total Staked 89 points
Total Returned 231.6 points
Total Profit 142.6 pointsValue Is EverythingThanks Ginger,
I think I am understanding the value idea. I cant see me working out every horses chance in a race (such as the Khyber Kim race), however I do feel there is potential (for me) in adopting a similar strategy to what you do in maidens and assessing individual horses. Like you I felt Khyber Kim was overpriced but I did not look at the rest of the field. I know this would not be applicable to my daily lucky 15’s but I could make it work on those big weekend handicaps. I wont post it up on here while I work it out though!
Good luck in Douginho.
Have another ante-post bet
GRAND NATIONAL
5 points @ 44/1 (betfair) Hello BudScottish National winner, goes on soft and firm ground. Tough, reliable, seemingly still improving at the age of 11 (12 in another 6 weeks). Jumps brilliantly, including at Cheltenham last weekend over an inadequate trip. Possibly going to get course experience in the Beecher, from a stable that’s done it before, Twister. Related to two unlucky National horses in Esha Ness and Sandy Sprite, plus a Welsh National and a Scottish National winner, Stearsby and Willsford (as a 12 year old). All I want now is a reasonable weight, though I don’t think weights are as important in the Grand National as other races.
Value Is EverythingI do like an ante-post bet!
Newbury Hennessy Cognac Gold Cup
13 points @ 9/1 (WH) Killyglen
10 @ 12/1 (WH) CarruthersHave not done a 100% book yet, prices shown were best bookies prices this morning.
Hennessy Cognac Gold Cup 3m2f110yds Chase Newbury.
9 11-12 Denman
174 Brilliant winner of Cheltenham Gold Cup in 2008. Well handicapped on that run, despite now being off a 13lbs higher mark than when successful in this race two years ago. Needs to be better than last season when having heart problems. Stable are making all the right noises about him. 5/1 fav.
6 10-4 What A Friend
152 Second string of Paul Nicholls and second favourite to Denman. But the price relates more to trainer’s opinion than form shown on the racecourse. Winner of three small field novice chases last term but flopped in the RSA when starting second favourite. Owned by Sir Alex Ferguson, holds his head high and sometimes looks awkward. 6/1
7 10-6 Killyglen
154 Won Mildmay Novices Chase at Aintree on final start in 08/09 after being pulled up in RSA chase (interupted preparation). Below form at Carlisle on reappearance, but over a vastly inadequate trip (2 ½ miles). Stable is in much better form now too. Second season chaser with potential to improve. Goes well on a soft surface. 9/1
7 10-8 Barbers Shop
156 Well backed in recent days to give The Queen a Hennessy winner. Seemed an unlikely stayer but ran really well 7th in Gold Cup at this trip. Not run yet in 2009/10 but runs very well fresh (2nd in Paddy Power Gold Cup last term). Should run well here if conditions don’t place too much emphasis on stamina. 10/1
6 10-1 Carruthers
149 Second season chaser with potential to improve. Won Reynoldstown chase at Ascot as novice. Possibly set too fast a pace when 4th to Cooldine in RSA chase. Much better than finishing position suggests and could be well handicapped. Part owned by Lord Oaksey. Usually a bold jumping front runner. Only 5th on reappearance at Wincanton, but weakened late and probably needed the run. 12/1
7 10-0 Cappa Bleu
148 Won Foxhunter Chase at Cheltenham for trainer Sheila Crow. Has the age and physical scope to make a better horse against professionals this term. Now with Evan Williams who was successful in this race with State Of Play in 2007. Only 3rd at an inadequate 2m4f on return in October. Expected to do a lot better at this distance. 12/1
8 10-0 Atouchbetweenacara
148 With Venetia Williams last term, improved form to win Silver Trophy (2m5f) at Cheltenham in April by 24 lengths. Stays 3m but will need to settle better for his new yard to stay 3m2f110yds. Now with Tim Vaughan, one of the most promising young trainers around. 14/1
9 10-3 Gone To Lunch
151 From the small but successful yard of J. Scott. Suited by extreme distances, insufficient test on reappearance. Laziness means he’s usually under pressure early. Though that trait possibly makes the handicapper struggle to get his worth. Went close in the Scottish National and now off just a 3lb higher mark. Possibly unsuited by very soft ground and goes well for AP McCoy. 16/1
8 11-5 Notre Pere
167 Top Irish chaser, best on soft. Fell last time but normally very good jumper. Not to be under-estimated, but likely to run in Betfair Chase instead. 20/1
7 10-0 (9-8) Horner Woods
142 Second at 66/1 to Cooldine in RSA chase at the Cheltenham Festival. Very much suited by being dropped out in an overly strong run race. Run poorly since and remains to be seen if he was flattered by that run. Should be suited by this test of stamina. Is currently 6lbs out of the handicap 25/1
9 10-0 (9-12) Ballyfitz
146 Ran well enough in terms of form when well fancied in the Paddy Power (staying on 4th) at the weekend, to suggest has a chance here. 3m2f110yds may suit better than 2m5f, but will have to improve his jumping. Best efforts so far over fences in small fields when able to dominate. Is currently 2lbs out of the handicap. 25/1
8 10-4 Casey Jones
152 Ran o.k. To be just behind War Of Attrition last time. But may be better suited by going left handed. Has been inconsistent in the past. Unlikely to have the throttle to trouble the principles. 25/1
7 10-0 (9-7) Can’t Buy Time
141 Progressive staying chaser last year but fell in the National and jumped poorly on return. Needs a lot to come out to get a run in this. Even if he does, looks plenty short enough in the betting considering is 7lbs out of the handicap. 25/1
9 10-13 Halcon Genalardais
161 Thorough stayer, winner of one Welsh National and placed in another two. Even with very soft going is unlikely to be quick enough. 25/1
8 11-7 Madison Du Berlais
169 Last year won this race off a mark 19lbs lower but has improved since. Winning Totesport Bowl at Aintree when Denman fell. Seems more likely to run at Haydock this weekend. 25/1
9 10-2 Snowy Morning
150 Irish, dropped 6lbs by the handicapper since running 9th in 09 National, now just 5lbs higher than when 3rd in 08 renewal. Is not as good a jumper of park fences and fell when favourite for Denman’s Hennessy. 25/1
8 10-0 (9-11) Nenuphar Collonges
145 Lazy but genuine staying chaser. 3rd to Wichita Lineman in William Hill Handicap at Festival off a 3lbs lower mark. Suited by a strongly run race. Made mistakes on reappearance, only 6th at Wincanton. Is 3lbs out of the handicap. 33/1
6 10-0 (8-12) The Package
132 Has no chance of getting a run in this off 132. 33/1
8 10-0 (9-11) New Alco
145 Last start on April 23rd 2008. Now runs off same mark as when second to An Accordian (now weighted to finish alongside) in 08 William Hill Handicap. May not stay this trip in testing conditions. Is 3lbs out of the handicap. 33/1
8 10-0 (9-8) According To Pete
142 Ran really well at the weekend to be 5th in the Paddy Power, outpaced turning for home. Stays and goes well on a soft surface. Is 6lbs out of the weights though. 33/1
9 10-9 My Will
157 Suited by 3m2f plus. Ran a good race to be 5th in last years Cheltenham Gold Cup. A little below form 3rd in Grand National and now races off a 5lb higher mark. Ran reasonably first time out, never with much chance of winning when 15 lengths 2nd to The Listener in a 3m grade 1 chase in Ireland. Seems more exposed than most in this field. 33/1
10 10-3 Darkness
151 Enigmatic but talented chaser, sometimes fails to go through with his effort. Stays well but inclined to make the odd bad mistake. Possibly best in small fields. 33/1
8 10-4 An Accordian
152 Looked to be capable of better when winning William Hill Handicap at Cheltenham Festival in 2008. Only seen once since, pulled up. Has looked a tricky ride and plays a silly tune when in front. 33/1
8 10-0 (9-8) Dream Alliance
142 Second to Denman in this in 2008 off this same mark. But will have to carry 6lbs more if his old rival runs, as is 6lbs out of the handicap. Encouraging first start for over 1 ½ years when 2nd in a hurdle race on Nov 4th. Weakening late on. Not always a good jumper of fences. 33/1
8 10-0 (9-10) Siegemaster
144 Only 3rd in Grade 2 chase when a well fancied 13/8 last time. Chance disappeared with a bad error 5 out. Won’t be able to make errors in this competitive race. 33/1
6 10-0 (9-11) Calgary Bay
145 Very well thought of last season, disappointed when second favourite for Arkle chase. Is a big brute of a horse, type to improve with age. Yet to prove himself further than 2m4f. Pulled up before stamina became an issue in May 33/1
9 10-0 (9-11) State Of Play
145 Winner of this in 2007 off this exact same mark. Ran off a mark 5lbs higher when 4th in the Grand National final start. This his first start since Aintree, but runs his best races fresh. Stable has better fancied Cappa Bleu. 33/1
10 10-9 Mister Top Notch
157 Is just below being a top Irish chaser. Unseated rider before remounted on reappearance over hurdles. Yet to prove himself beyond 3 miles. 33/1
8 10-0 (9-9) Bible Lord
143 Taken out lame at the start of the Paddy Power last weekend. Does not seem to stay this trip. 33/1
7 10-0 (9-11) Kornati Kid
145 Found 4 miles too far in National Hunt Chase but should stay this trip. Was a progressive chaser up to that point and could do better in 09/10. Acts well on a soft surface. Is currently 3lbs out of the handicap. 33/1
9 10-0 Vic Venturi
148 Struggled to land odds of 11/10 in 2m4f chase latest start, stays a strongly run 3m1f. Does not have the best win to run ratio. Likes a soft surface. 33/1
9 10-9 Roll Along
157 Only just behind My Will in Gold Cup but ran poorly on first start for Twiston-Davis yard on reappearance. 33/1
9 10-10 Cloudy Lane
158 Winner of Peter Marsh Chase at Haydock last season before fell and unseated rider last two starts (latter in Grand National). Better jumper than those results imply. May not come down from his northern base. 33/1
7 10-0 (9-8) Arbor Supreme
142 Progressive Irish chaser, not raced since may. Stays well and usually held up for a late run. 33/1
8 10-0 (9-11) Niche Market
145 Good jumper. Progressed all last season and ended up an English trained winner of the Irish Grand National. Usually races prominently. Probably needed the race first time this season, could be trained for Aintree this time around. 40/1
9 10-13 Mon Mome
161 100/1 Grand National winner off a mark 13lbs lower. Speedier than Aintee suggests. Might have another primary target and need his reappearance. 40/1
8 11-2 Alberta’s Run
164 Inconsistent, won RSA novice chase at the Cheltenham Festival in 08. Best run since when well beaten (by Kauto Star) second in King George VI last December. Possibly better in smaller fields. 40/1
10 11-0 Joe Lively
162 Genuine stayer last year, injured in February and only 5th in Ireland on return. 40/1
11 10-13 Our Vic
161 Now 11 years old, seems inconsistent but ran a reasonable race in Paddy Power Gold Cup to be 6th. Early dominance may be essential these days and is more likely to be taken on by other front runners here. Appears barely to stay 3m1f, an extra 1 ½ furlong to cope with. 50/1
10 10-6 War Of Attrition
154 Cheltenham Gold Cup winner for the Irish in 2006, seems on the downgrade now but handicap mark is falling with ability. Ran reasonably when 3rd to The Listener on soft. Very best form on firmer ground. 50/1
9 10-0 Chelsea Harbour
148 Irish chaser who was only 6th last weekend, does not jump well enough to win a race like this. Likes a test of stamina. 50/1
10 10-0 (9-10) Church Island
144 Veteran Irish chaser, seems to run best from the front. Long way behind in Charlie Hall Chase last time, making mistakes. 66/1
Value Is EverythingIf as expected the ground has more give than good-soft, I can’t see Barber Shop or Atouchbetweenacara staying. Gone to lunch won’t act on it. That’s if he runs, is double the price of the top bookmaker offer of 16/1 (33/1) on the exchanges.
Notre Pere, Can’t Buy Time, Madison, Snowy, Seigmaster, Bible Lord, Vic venturi, Alberta’s, Our Vic, Church Island, will all in my opinion be absentees.
Denman has a good chance if back to hais best, but is too short at the moment. I expect him to drift.
Cappa Bleu could be something or nothing. Too short at the mo.
What A Friend is far too short for what he’s done.So I’ve backed Killyglen and Carruthers.
Value Is EverythingGinger
Agree with you about Barber’s Shop and Atouchbetweenacara having stamina doubts.
Bit surprised with your comment about Gone to Lunch. His 2nd at Punchestown in April behind Rare Bob was on absolutely desperate ground. Raceform have that run only 2lb below his run in the Scottish National on fast ground. I’ve not gone through the race myself yet so don’t know whether I’ll want Gone to Lunch ‘onside’ or not.My record in the race is bloody awful anyway. Think Burrough Hill Lad was the last winner I backed.
ROF,
I am not convinced about the form of that Group 1. With Cooldine running a long way below expectations. Rare Bob had quite a few chances to show his worth before this win. So can’t see he improved much. Also, some of the times suggest it was not as soft as the official going indicates.Having said that, this run was the reason my write up said "possibly" and not "probably". There is indeed a chance Gone To Lunch does act on very soft. I may take a chance on him myself nearer the time, if the price is right ROF. I noticed he was double the top bookies price (16/1) on Betfair last night 33/1. But has come in today to 23/1
(Emotion for thumbs up)
Value Is Everything2:35 Ascot Hurdle
28 points @ 3/1 (FD) Karabak
8 @ 16/1 (PP) Lough Derg
7 @ 5/1 (FD) Katchit(All prices bog)
Will give reasons later.
Value Is Everything3:10 Ascot
26 points @ 7/2 (FD bog) Schindlers HuntWill probably come back with a saver bet
Value Is EverythingAnalysis:
2:35 Ascot
Zaynar has potential to improve, particularly at this trip and more. Henderson is in blinding form and should make his mark in the best company this term. However, needed cheek pieces in the Triumph, not on today. Got progressively lazy last year and lazy horses often need their first run back. Might not be the easiest of rides and Nigel Tinkler is on board.Karabak is said by his trainer to be in good form. I hope Ascot has had a bit of rain, because 2m3f is a bare minimum. Ran really well when 1 ¾ lengths second to Mikael d’ Haguenet; despite being hemmed in when the pace quickened. This is one of the mounts AP McCoy is most looking forward to this year. On form, Karabak’s price should be similar to Zaynar.
Katchit had a very poor time last season, lacked the old sparkle. Not convinced it was to do with “losing his speed” but should stay this trip anyway. Gets weight from the ex-novices. Even on last season’s form has a chance, so at around 5/1 needs to be taken seriously.
Lough Derg is not consistent anywhere else but here. Won this after a flop on reappearance last term. Change of jockey is a plus, Johnson one of the best over a hurdle. Might still need the run, but at 16/1, well worth finding out. Has to give weight to most rivals, but can’t have everything at the price.
Elusive Dream has had an injury since showing his best form and 2m3f around here may be too short anyway.
Time For Rupert improved to win an Aintree handicap over 3 miles last back end. This may not play to his strengths and needs to find a lot to figure.
Straw Bear has run so poorly over fences it’s difficult to see him coming back to his best here. Ran as though something amiss last time.
Red Moloney ran a good race at Cheltenham, a close up 6th in the Supreme. Flat form (placed in Irish St Leger) suggests this trip should suit. Fair start to this campaign when second on reappearance and stable in good form now. Suspicion of temperament, might be holding something back, and as such could be a good place only bet.
3:10 Ascot
At both Cheltenham and Aintree there wasn’t much between Voy Por Ustedes and Schindler’s Hunt. Less than a length separating them on both occasions. Alan King’s charge made a bad mistake at Prestbury Park, but the Irish horse made equally as bad a mistake at Aintree. They should finish together today. Schindler’s Hunt has the advantage of already having a run. “Poor” win to run ratio for such a good horse looks just a coincidence. Run very well (to form) in competitive races, could even be argued he’s still improving.Alberta’s Run gets weight and on form of his King George stands a great chance. But, he’s so inconsistent these days and 2m3f seems too short a trip in this ground. Has missed the Betfair Chase and Hennessy to run here. He’d have a better chance in both of those and this is probably a prep for the King George.
Monet’s Garden ran a blinder in the Old Roan at Aintree, a course he does well at. Takes on his Arkle victor today. Richards star would have won that day without a vast five year old allowance. However, Voy Por Ustedes has made the most improvement. It’s difficult to see the old boy coming out on top at level weights. Unless he’s able to get a soft lead and make jumping pay, but Striking Article could take him on.
Gwanako is a reasonable sort, but seems exposed as just below this class.
Striking Article comes from a stable in fine form, could still improve but needs to. Reportedly slightly lame after his latest triumph. Sometimes makes mistakes and likely to be taken on for the lead today.
Panjoe Bere has not gone on since beating Calgary Bay and Free World here. Looks flattered by that, when held up off a strong pace.
Medicinal was not this class when with Nicholls, unlikely to be now. Does not jump well enough, hope he stays out of the way!
Oops! Forgot Planet Of Sound.
Backed him for the Arkle last year, did not jump well but still there at the final fence, outpaced. Should be suited by the step up in trip. Won at Exeter in Haldon Gold Cup on reappearance (when stable were flying). However Twist Magic was only 6 1/2 lengths away in third, giving the Hobbs horse 15 lbs. In my opinion both Voy Por Ustedes and Schindlers Hunt are better than Twist.Value Is EverythingAlan King’s have all been needing a run this season Ginge- would be a little against them in good company first time until that changes myself
That is a good point Carv, but have noticed them running a bit better lately. (Might change my mind about that after today). Has had three first time winners in the last couple of weeks, though two of those (at Plumpton) were odds on. Probably did not need to be at their best to win. King was also complimentary about how Karabak is going at home. Stable is generally going better than it was two weeks ago too.
Value Is Everything
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