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3:30 Sandown
30 points @ 4/1 Russian TriggerMy prices to beat:
Russian Trigger 3/1, Kilbeggan Blade 11/2, Hennessy 7/1, Lorum Leader 15/2, Rambling Minster 8/1, Never So Blue 10/1, Hoo La Baloo 16/1, Eric’s Charm 20/1, Irish Raptor 22/1Value Is Everything3:30 Sandown
30 points @ 4/1 Russian TriggerMy prices to beat:
Russian Trigger 3/1, Kilbeggan Blade 11/2, Hennessy 7/1, Lorum Leader 15/2, Rambling Minster 8/1, Never So Blue 10/1, Hoo La Baloo 16/1, Eric’s Charm 20/1, Irish Raptor 22/1With Hennessy now a non-runner.
A further:
4 points @ 7/2 (tote) Russian Trigger
5 @ 9/1 (betfair) Rambling Minster
8 @ 5.4/1 (betfair) Kilbeggan BladeValue Is Everything2:25 Sandown
30 points @ 100/30 Well ChiefMy prices to beat:
Big zeb 13/8, Well Chief 11/4, Twist Magic 7/2, Forpaddytheplasterer 8/1, Mahogany Blaze 28/1
With the drift of Big Zeb he’s now worth a saver.
20 points @ 2/1 Big Zeb
Value Is Everything2:25 Cheltenham
18 points @ 12/1 (b365 bog) Skippers Brig
15 points @ 10/1 (b365 bog) Tamarinbleu
9 points @ 26/1 (betfair) Mount OscarHopefully will have time to do some analysis tomorrow morning.
Value Is Everything2:25 Cheltenham
18 points @ 12/1 (b365 bog) Skippers Brig
15 points @ 10/1 (b365 bog) Tamarinbleu
9 points @ 26/1 (betfair) Mount OscarHopefully will have time to do some analysis tomorrow morning.
Have now saved on:
1 point @ 47/1 (betfair) Idole FirstValue Is EverythingAnalysis:
Poquelin finished really well in the Paddy Power. Did not travel or jump with as much fluency as usual there, only getting in to it late. If he can cut out the errors and travel better has a big chance, but will he and is there a temperament flaw. My 100% book price 13/2.
Skippers Brigg is an improver, unexposed with a good win / run ratio on soft or heavy going. Those wins are not in as competitive races as this and the big field may test jumping more. However at 14/1 (WH) looks outstanding value. My price 13/2.
Atouchbetweenacara won really well for Vennitia here last back end but has gone up a lot for that. Now with up and coming trainer Tim Vaughn. Has potential to improve but needs to. 8/1 may look value but unease in the market suggests he might just need this first run. 7/1
Tamarinbleu only carries 3lbs more than when successful in this a couple of years ago. Deep Purple winning the Peterborough franked the form of the Charlie Hall, Tamarinbleu runner up in that. Possibly best fresh, but has had a fair break. There are other prominent runners in the field to take him on. 11/1 seems a good enough price. 7/1
Chapoturgeon started his fencing career as a poor jumper, then jumped well for a short time, but has since jumped poorly. That seems to be the norm now. Is unexposed but has gone up a lot for his Jewson win. 11/1
Mount Oscar is improving fast for his new yard. Looked full of potential in his novice hurdle season and is now fulfilling it. Won well at Newbury, first two finished clear. Stable was in far better form then than it is now. Around 25/1 on betfair is worth a bet. 15/1
Hold Em is not the very best of jumpers but usually runs well at Cheltenham. Is more consistent over this trip than over all record suggests. Handicapper probably has a hold of him now. 16/1
Jayo was running well in the spring (last time) before losing all chance with a blunder. 20/1
Sky’s The Limit ran well first time up over an inadequate trip, but runs well fresh. Not been the easiest to win with since a Festival win here a couple of years ago. 20/1
Razor Royale won an amateurs race here last time when the yard were flying, not quite so strong now. Seemed to thrive over 3 miles that day. Has not been the most consistent over the years. 22/1
From Dawn To Dusk’s best form is on a sounder surface, has a chance on form if he acts on this but was a non-runner on similar ground in the Paddy Power. 28/1
Idole First has not run for a good while now but loves this place. Has been dropped to a winnable mark if in A1 condition. 40/1 looks big enough to take the chance. 28/1
Our Vic won a poor race last time, fair in the Paddy Power too. Well handicapped on his best form but looks on the downgrade. Often seems to down tools when taken on for the lead and there are other front runners in this field. 40/1
Gwanako does not seem at his best at the moment and is exposed even at his best. 50/1
Stan also looks exposed. Is inconsistent and sometimes needs a run or two to hit a peek. Now with Tim Vaughn. 66/1
Bible Lord has not been a good jumper in the past and a crashing fall at Aintree won’t have helped. Has a squeak at his best but unlikely to be at that best. 100/1
Knowhere seems to have lost it, poor recent form, poor jumper, poor temperament, poor chance. 200/1
Value Is EverythingKing George VI Kempton
30 points @ 7/2 (WH) Imperial Commander
10 @ 6/1 (WH, T) Imperial CommanderReasons later.
Value Is EverythingKing George VI Kempton
30 points @ 7/2 (WH) Imperial Commander (without KS)
10 @ 6/1 (WH, T) Imperial Commander (with KS)4/6 looks fair value for Kauto Star on his record in the race. But whether he’ll be able to reproduce previous form is yet to be proven this term. In my opinion not at his best on reappearance in the Betfair Chase when possibly not fully fit. However, despite Nicholls words, very well backed on the day which suggests he was fit enough. Some improvement on that run can be expected, but it is not certain he’ll be at his best. Almost 10 years old and French breds often reach their peak sooner than their English or Irish cousins. It is possible, if not probable we’ve seen the best of Kauto Star, though will be difficult to beat even on last time out form.
If Kauto Star did run to form at Haydock, then Imperial Commander is an outstanding price at 6/1 (or 7/2 without KS). If not at his best, then an improver, proven at 3m is what we should be looking for. Imperial Commander looks the answer. It is true, he does have an excellent record first time out and has not ran to form right-handed (only two starts that way). But when he ran in the King George and Punchestown the trainer was well out of form, with very few runners running well. Those two runs can easily be forgiven. At 6/1 the price makes it well worth the small chance of him not performing, especially with Twister going so well at the moment.
Maduson Du Berlais usually comes on a great deal for his first run and needs to. Well behind in the Betfair Chase (friendless on the run up to race day) and did not jump with his usual fluency. Convinced he’s best leading or racing wide with a view of the front. In the Gold Cup had horses on both sides and seemed to give up. Goes well on a sharp track, either way around. 8/1 compared to 6/1 Imperial Commander does not look value.
Deep Purple is improving, but still needs to improve a good deal to win this.
Barber Shop is a possibly at the price. Some don’t think he stayed at Newbury, but was with stayer Niche Market two out and only finished just behind that horse at the finished. There is a possibility though he will improve again at slightly shorter.
Nacarat won the Racing Post in the style of a very good horse, but needs to be better than ever and has run poorly this term.
Alberta’s Run was second in this last year, is inconsistent and possibly needs to race prominently out wide, gives up when crowded. Getting plenty of weight when successful at Ascot.
Tartak looked a possible improver at the end of last season. Showed he’s coming back to form when chasing home Deep Purple. Was an excellent jumper as a novice yet it fell apart on reappearance. Far better at Huntingdon but still made a couple of bad errors. Without those would have been a lot closer to Deep Purple. Could be a nice speculative couple of quid exchanges bet on the day.
In my opinion Imperial Commander has a chance of beating Kauto Star and should beat the rest if running to Betfair form. So 7/2 with WH without Kauto Star and 6/1 with, look excellent value.
Value Is Everything1:00 Newbury
23 points @ 5/1 (Sp bt) Massinis Maguire
15 points @ 7/4 (L) CarruthersValue Is EverythingWonder how many of these are looking at other engagements. BFT and Niche Market (who I’ve backed for the Grand National) will not want to destroy their handicap marks / have a hard race. Both stayers who may be better over further too. Roll Along is well handicapped but ran poorly last time and stable is in it’s customary poor patch. That leaves Carruthers who I backed for the Hennessey before a slight injury. Hoped to have backed him as the main bet but not enough value. May get an easy lead. Massini’s Maguire is having his first run but goes well fresh. Stable in excellant form. Went too fast early (along with Carruthers) in the RSA, may be better than that. Main bet.
Value Is Everything2:10 Cheltenham
15 each way @ 12/1 (PP bog) Fit To Drive
All the rest on betfair.
8 @ 74/1 Mister McGoldrick
3 @ 27/1 Something Wells
6 @ 43/1 Ashley Brook
3 @ 19/1 Hold EmValue Is Everything3:30 Haydock
23 points @ 5/1 Prince De Beauchene
11 points @ 12/1 Jass
6 points @ 6/1 According To PeteValue Is Everything2:40 Ascot
34 points @ 5/2 Petit Robin
2 points @ 22/1 Oh Crick
6 points @ 6.2/1 Well ChiefValue Is Everything3:30 Haydock
23 points @ 5/1 Prince De Beauchene
11 points @ 12/1 Jass
6 points @ 6/1 According To PeteThought Cloudy Lane might be being prepped for the Grand National (not at best until after the weights come out). However, the fact his price has stood up this morning is encouraging for today.
So another:
7 points @ 6/1 Cloudy Lane
1 point @ 6/1 According To PeteValue Is Everything2:10 Fontwell
32 points @ 4/1 (BSQ) Near The Water
14 points @ 12/1 (generally) Forest Rhythem3:20 Fontwell
20 points each way @ 6/1 (Sky) Fruity O’RooneyValue Is Everything
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