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This is how I see the race at the moment with what I believe are their percentage / fair chances:
0.25% 400/1 Flegmatik – Totally outclassed, but is suited by 2 1/2 miles on the likely surface around Ascot… And some of his better rivals are running in conditions that don’t suit.
6.75% 14/1 Le Patron – Is good fresh and is here, however he does appear at best in the early season and still has quite a lot to find on form, although he might still be worth a bet at the price.
6.75% 14/1 Blue Lord – Has barely stayed 2 1/2 miles in the past. Injured and hasn’t shown his best form for almost 2 years.
18.5% 9/2 Corbetts Cross – Needs further and softer. Probably needs a complete change of tactics if he’s to be effective here. Normally a hold up horse.
23.75% 100/30 L’Homme Presse – Probably has the best form but appears to be best over further. Jumps left / less consistent right-handed. Could not cope in the race last year.
44% 5/4 Pic Dorhy – Does not have the best form in the race, but is at his best right-handed. Good record at Ascot / won the race before. Is the only confirmed front runner with his two main rivals both wanting easyish races as preps for Chetenham (less likely to take him on). Loves 2 1/2 miles. Suited by the likely Good-soft / Good ground.
My idea of Pic D’Orhy fair odds is 5/4 and 15/8 is available!!!
Value Is EverythingAgree with Marc. Everything seems fine for Pic D’Orhy: course, trip, field size, price. I had a few quid on him at 7/4.
No bet yet, as trainer of Corbetts Cross says he’ll assess the drying ground on Sat morn, so doubts over CC participation.
I’d imagine if he’s pulled out there’ll be a hefty deduction on already placed bets.It is hard to see past Pic d’Ohry. I like L’Homme Presse, but righthanded on a short trip isn’t his thing. The same could be said for Corbets Cross.
Pic d’Ohry 7/4
The Nicholls stable is woefully out of form with only one winner out of the last 29 runners.
Pic d’Ohry only beat handicappers in his last race and must have run a good stone below his best and he had a wind operation in the off season which is a negative pointer. Does not tick any value bets for me. L’Homme Press is best going left handed and needs further so can’t fancy him. Corbetts Cross could run well here despite the ground and trip but he won’t be given a hard race with the Gold Cup next month as his main target. So by default I would have a small stake on Le Patron.Money for CC suggests they’re going to change tactics and attack.
Value Is EverythingAscot specialist for sure (5 of his last 8 runs have been at the course and have yielded 4 wins and a 2nd place) but if I am honest, the team have done really well to win the G1 races that they have with him as they have ended up being not the strongest G1 renewals.
I would imagine that they will have to try him again in the Melling Chase (even though he bombed out badly against Jonbon in last year’s race) before being lined up back at Ascot again for the G2 1965 Chase and today’s race next season.
LHP seemed to scare himself with that mistake early on but has always jumped left on right handed courses even when jumping well and this isn’t a great prep going into a Gold Cup – I still feel that he (like the winner) will always find a one or two that are just too good when they face top G1 horses. That being said the Gold Cup could end up being a comparatively weaker renewal this year so it is quite possible that LHP could very well better his 4th place from last year if he does run up to somewhere near his best.
How Corbetts Cross ended up favourite for this race beggars belief to be honest, he was run off his feet over 3m in the King George so dropping back to this trip was always going to be very problematic and once again he was flat out the whole way and considering that, I was expecting many more jumping errors than he did actually make – the Gold Cup trip will be much more up his alley and I could well see him in the fight for the places as well.
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