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https://www.racingpost.com/racecards/23/haydock/2024-11-23/879095
https://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/ante-post-racing/national-hunt/betfair-chase/winner
Agree with Ahoy Senor GT, think he’s hit a massive chance.
This is likely to be a hotter race than last year, but I’d still like to be with last years winnner Royal Pagaille.
One of that pair likely to be the sensible bet, but also got one eye on Limerick Lace at 16’s. Don’t know if she’s a serious contender, but don’t think she’d disgrace herself at all.
I’ll definitely bet Sam Brown EW, while there’s three places, but I was hoping for 66’s/100’s
No bet for now
Edit, went with Sam Brown
Sam Brown 50’s EW
I think we get false favourites for this race. Protektorat and now Grey Dawning. Why this horse is 2/1 favourite is a mystery. The horse does not stay 3 miles in a top class truly run race, not to mention the fact he has it all to do on ratings. He will have had no prep run and the ground at Haydock can be attritional. I would have run him in the Mackeson or whatever it is called now, he looks good value for the Ryanair at 14/1. My selection for the Betair is Corbetts Cross @ 9/2, he will stay every yard, is likely to get soft or heavy ground and has scope for huge improvement. Currently available at 25/1 for the Gold Cup, snap it up before the Betfair.
I am against Grey Dawning at the moment Sea Pigeon – he is a bit short ante-post. But you say “the horse does not stay 3 miles in a top class truly run race”. Where?
Only time he’s raced at 3m in a Grade 1 was over hurdles in the Sefton Novices. Where he only got as far as the 9th flight – surely means nothing? And over fences at 3m he lost a Class 2 race on debut – means nothing? Only other time he’s run over 3m being the Grade 2 Hampton at Warwick. His most impressive performance, going further and further clear in a strongly run race on soft ground (ie a test of stamina at the trip).
He then won the Turners Grade 1 on soft ground, again a strongly run race on a stiffer, undulating course. So although that was 2m4f, it was a comparative test of stamina for a 2m4f race. Then in the Manifesto at Aintree – again at 2m4f – nowhere near as truly run (less of a test of stamina) and coming after a long hard season… Disappointed.
So for Grey Dawning’s prospects this year, unless it looks like being a strongly run race on soft ground I think 2m4f is likely to be too short. 3m+ being a better distance this term imo.
On form ratings Corbetts Cross is slightly ahead of Grey Dawning, but Corbetts Cross has already had the opportunity of taking on established chasers – in the Bowl. Ran well but was beaten by both Gerri Colombe and Ahoy Senor. I’d say Grey Dawning is more open to improvement than Corbetts Cross. But I agree he will be suited by the test this race usually provides.
Value Is EverythingGood luck with the Ah Senor bets guys but no way could I play him at that price , I’d be in the Corbetts cross camp and I,ll tickle il est francais though I’m not convinced they,’ll turn up , Corbett may well have improvement in him and the stiff Haydock track should be right up his street
Pick 3 on Saturday champion 2025/2026
Grey Dawning – missed his prep.
Ahoy Senor – hard to win with.
Il Est Francais – likely won’t turn up.
Royal Pagaille – returning from injury.
Hewick – only a possible if it’s good ground.So i’ll go Corbetts Cross ew.
Good point Ginger. I looked at the 14 day weather forecast: The outlook for Haydock in the two weeks ahead shows the average daytime maximum temperature will be around 11°C, with a high for the two weeks of 12°C expected on the afternoon of Friday 8th. The mean minimum temperature will be 7°C, dipping to its lowest on the morning of Saturday 9th at 5°C. The next 14 days will remain predominantly dry. On the whole winds are likely to be light. The race may indeed cut up due to the likely fast ground so at this stage I have had a bet on The REAL wHACKER AT 16/1
Its a dry outlook at Haydock this coming week, but it isn’t a dry outlook the week leading up to the race, looking at the weather websites I have seen.
As usual looking for a longer priced one- beyond the first five : Grey Dawning, Corbetts Cross, Ahoy Senor, Hewick, Royal Pagaille all likely to turn up, got obvious claims, though being picky GD has had no prep and not certain to stay the trip in the muck, though he’s bred to; I’m not convinced by CC’s jumping, Ahoy Senor is talented but weird, if it rains Hewick ‘s chance dwindles, RP legs getting old.
Chianti, Whacker, BMG, Ginny’s, Il Est Francais and General En Chef all going elsewhere, probably also Protektorat.
I’ll leave Limerick Lace and Sam Brown to Bobby though both could run well. Don’t know if Minella Drama going here, and I don’t know where Gentlemansgame is – presumably waiting for rain somewhere.
So that leaves
-my little pal Hitman. He might not stay, he might not be good enough and his wind might be in rags by now, but he ran a respectable prep race, jumps well enough, should go on anything that isn’t a bog, and is coming here. Best performances have been at flat left handed tracks and his last win was here (aaages ago)
-Gold Tweet. Think he’s coming here. Stays ok. Jumps ok. Has kept good company in France. Has had two prep runs, and I assume they haven’t suffered quick ground over there during the prep weeks.Hitman 25-1 ew
Gold Tweet 50-1 ew
3 placesCapodanno supplemented.
Ahoy Senor
Bravemansgame
Capodanno
Gold Tweet
Grey Dawning
Hewick
Minella Drama
Royale Pagaille
The Real Whacker
Limerick LaceFrom the BBC forecast there’s rain and snow around the area today / tonight and only a small amount midweek until hail on thursday. Then could be a rain or snow storm on the day of race. But there’s also rain forecast Sunday, so if that arrives a day early…
I’d say the going could still be anything.
Has Bravemansgame been left in in the hope of Good ground?
Value Is Everything
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