- This topic has 54 replies, 24 voices, and was last updated 1 year, 4 months ago by
.
- Posts
Well said Tizaaards.
That was the best Lossiemouth. She’s a very good mare but had beaten absolutely nothing and isn’t a slick jumper to boot. The race against Teahupoo was a farce.
She’s just been beaten by a far superior animal and she’ll never finish closer than she has today.
Mike – kind of ties in with how she was from the very start and being the man on top he would be better placed than anyone to make that comment…..he doesn’t strike me as the kind of individual to lie just to save face for getting beat.
As I said I wouldn’t be quick to rule her out the Champion especially given the stiffer nature of Cheltenham compared to Kempton and who knows what the next chapter of the CH story will bring (especially given his recent history of issues)….got to be in it to win it afterall.
Another interesting thing is just what do connections now do with Burdett Road? Ruby made the comment querying just how close he actually finished to them (beaten 2.5L and 6.5L) and that might have been closer had he not lost his hind legs on landing after the last, although Cobden did comment that the first two were simply in a different league.
Are they really going to want to drop Burdett Road back into asking him to lump big weights in handicaps?
Ok those of you who have been sniffing solvents all morning can think what you like and point to Burdett road being beaten nearly 7l as a reason to believe CH isn’t simply head and shoulders above every other hurdler out there.
Those of us who aren’t flat earthers will just accept the result for what it is and look forward to CH coming on for the run and reclaiming his crown come March.
The Burdett Road run I’d be a bit cautious about even though it was good. He got his way up front in a 4 runner field, CH took a blow after the last having not run in a good while, and Lossiemouth ran flat all race and was still 2nd.
Anything can happen in a race but if you aren’t in it you can’t take advantage if it does. Based on today’s run Burdett Road potentially could be one horse able to nick 3rd if only two of the big three run. If all 3 run he would need one of them to underperform to get 3rd.
That being said, Burdett Road was officially rated over 30 lbs inferior to CH so I think we can safely say that CH is currently a fair way off that lofty mark of his and while I take it he will have needed the run, Nico did need to use the whip on the run in which he hasn’t been anywhere close to doing in previous runs where he barely came off the bridle.
I do think he is more vunerable now than he has ever been in the past but whether any of his potential rivals are able to reach the required level to beat him is the big question. If that horse is out there then the law of averages would suggest that it will be a horse housed in the Mullins stable.
Just watched the race.
Brilliant for a comeback run, conceding 7lbs, still not 100% and he sure put down a marker for March.
Just stay fit CH
I don’t think that told us a lot.
Lossiemouth was plainly never travelling well and not at her best, but still good enough to finish ahead of Burdett Road rather convincingly. Constitution Hill travelled better but has been far better than that in the past, and it’s anyone’s guess whether the gap to his very best is because he’s not at full fitness or not as good as he was.
For me:
Lossiemouth was having to be asked to close more than she usually does. Maybe her last three races have made her lazy for 2m on Good ground around a sharp track? Her last three runs being:Winning the Mares at Cheltenham (2m4f Heavy) without being anywhere near her best.
Winning the Champion Mares Hurdle at Punchestown (2m4f Soft) beating Gala Marceaux 7 lengths.
Winning an extremely slowly run Hattons Grace (2m4f Yielding) where she was obviously going to have more speed than the Champion Stayer Teahupoo in an extremely slowly run 2 1/2 miles on fast ground. That performance seemed over-rated by many.However, being lazy doesn’t mean she was incapable of her best. imo She ran right up to that best. Just didn’t improve on it. Still remains capable of better.
I backed Constitution Hill today and both backed and tipped him for the Champion Hurdle @ 4/1. But people are entitled to point out the closeness of Burdett Road. 9 lengths between CH and BR. But BR had improved in the Summer on the Flat. Getting within 8 lengths of Champion Stayer Kyprios… And showed improved form over jumps to win the Greatwood. Went up 9 lbs for that. So an improved performance here was on the cards. Suspect he’s progressed at around the same rate again. If not more, having the run of the race here.
…The form shown today was not Constitution Hill’s best. As said before the race, he could be quite a bit below his best and still win. However, his very best has been at Cheltenham in March. This form is probably quite a bit better than he achieved in last year’s race.
Constitution Hill has not proved as good as ever today. But there’s a chance he will be when next seen. Racing fans should rejoice at that. That said, we don’t yet know whether State Man is as good as he was either. Whether CH is an odds-on chance (now a fraction of odds-on for Cheltenham) obviously depends on who takes him on. Will Lossiemouth be switched to the Mares?. Ditto Brighterdaysahead who might yet prove the best of The Hill’s rivals.
Value Is EverythingA lot of people are being to quick to right Lossiemouth off , she was beaten fair and square but Cheltenham will suit her more then Kempton , there’s also that question mark of CH actually getting there , it’s a long time to March …
Pick 3 on Saturday champion 2025/2026
I still think she’ll go mares, always did. Triumph generally produces stayers not Champion Hurdle horses. Townend thought she was flat because shes never been asked to go 2m pace with decent horses who werent juveniles, she was simply flat out and doing her best work late on. Cheltenham should suit better but I cant see them leaving an open goal of a mares behind.
Ps Good to see CH back. No idea how much he retains, Burdett wasnt beaten that far and he put in a horlicks of a jump at the last. I’d want to see another run before Cheltenham as he could well bounce.
I am not sure whether Lossiemouth is even the best mare around TTM.
Battertimesahead beat State Man last time out despite jumping badly.
Value Is EverythingWhy isn’t Bettertimesahead going to be running in the Champion Hurdle though Ginger? Same reason why Lossiemouth won’t be
Both have better chance of winning the MaresGaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
I backed CH today, however I think Lossiemouth is now great value at 8/1 for the champion hurdle. She lost a few lengths at the start, was only beaten 2 and half lengths and was closing at the finish. Cheltenham on good to soft and I could see Lossiemouth turning the form around in March. Willie Mullins said Lossiemouth could run again at Cheltenham in January, if she wins the Unitbet hurdle again I think she will go for Champion Hurdle.
Sea Pigeon, CH will come on an absolute mile for that run and will beat her much easier next time.
I’m expecting peak CH in March.With the bigger field in the Champion Hurdle combined with undulations and a thunderous pace, I don’t think the Mares jumping will hold up.
I’d even go for the stayers with her over the Champion. I believe State Man beats her at Leopardstown also and always have.
For me, Anzadam is the dark horse of the race. I was blown away with his first run. To do that to a decent field on your debut was mighty impressive.
He could be anything.Only just watching this and that was brilliant to watch
The more I know the less I understand.
Willie Mullins in the post race interview was clearly disappointed with Lossiemouth, however his comments indicated he hasn’t thrown in the towel for the champion hurdle. At the finish CH was in front but he had very little left in the tank. If yesterday’s race had been run on soft ground at Cheltenham CH may not have lasted the distance and Lossiemouth could easily make up the two and half lengths as she was gaining on CH at the finish. CH may well improve a good deal for the run but it’s also possible that’s as good as he is and is a poor value odds on shot for the Champion Hurdle. This race was the first time Lossiemouth had encountered good ground, maybe she is a better horse on soft??, Holyhead port was closed so she would have had a longer trip over, did that impact on her performance?? Was she in season?? Lossiemouth is 5 going on 6, is she likely to be on an upward curve?? probably. Nicky Henderson has a record of withdrawing horses from big races, could this happen again with CH?? If CH gets withdrawn then you can throw away your Arkle bets on Sir Gino as he may well get switched back to the Champion hurdle. Two weeks ago he was 5/1 for Champion Hurdle, today he is 25/1. If you are on CH at good odds then a saver at 25/1 is wise. Sir Gino beat Burdett Road by around the same amount as did CH yesterday but he was going away at the finish. Question: If Sir Gino ran in yesterday’s race where would he have finished?? There is a long time for things to go wrong or improve for the contenders.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.