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It’s on! Lossiemouth Vs Constitution Hill.
Burdett Road and Lump Sum the other two runners.
Value Is Everythingseveral days for con hill to overdo it on the turkey and sherry before race day.
If they both show up it will be a race to savour
I can’t lose
Constitution Hill wins, Lossiemouth gets sent to the Mares
Lossiemouth wins and I get 10 to follow points
Everyone’s a winnerGaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
I can’t lose either, Nathan.
Have both Lossie and Con in the 10 to follow.
Although the Kempton Christmas Hurdle is not a “Bonus Race”.
Value Is EverythingFascinating race.
If Constitution Hill retains his ability, he wins. The million-dollar question is, of course, does he retain his ability?
Nico and Michael Buckley have both sounded bullish in recent days, so the 5-4 that’s currently available sounds like a licence to print money.
However, there are going to be 5-4 shots elsewhere with fewer question marks about them, so this is strictly a no-bet race for me.
Just watch and enjoy two cracking horses in action.
On what both horses have achieved so far: Constitution Hill could run 10 lbs worse than his very best and still win. So if Lossiemouth runs to form you’re relying on CH not only under-performing, but under-performing by quite a margin. If connections of CH thought he was that far behind his best at home would they even be running? Of course he could be pulled up, but is that really likely in an actual race? The Newbury and Kempton pieces of work were obviously disappointing, but they were still only pieces of work. Had they been done at home and CH was taken out of his next race (like he was)… Would we be denigrating his chance so much here? Fact is (unless things change) he is turning up… And turning up when knowing it’s against a real top notch opponent.
And then there’s Sir Gino to consider. After his Newcastle win (if I remember rightly) there was a time when he was Champion Hurdle favourite. And yet Henderson has always been adamant Constitution Hill is the better horse and will be his representative. We know what Sir Gino did in that Newbury workout, but that was against a horse found to be lame in the following days. Henderson said then it would be a push to get CH ready for the Christmas Hurdle, and yet here we are with connections seemingly bullish. After Newcastle I remember CH being around 6/1 for the Champion, with Sir Gino disputing favouritism. As I write Sir Gino has gone right out to 21/1 on the machine with Constitution Hill now 9/4 (5/2 tops with bookies). It seems connections are at least confident of a good run on Boxing Day. I suspect either CH and SG have worked at home and CH has won the gallop. Or they’ve both worked with the same workhorse and CH has beaten it easier than SG.
…So looking at what has happened in the betting markets for the Champion Hurdle it seems highly likely CH will be within 10 lbs of his best. Lossiemouth is still unexposed so could improve further. But I can’t help feeling right now the market has the pair the wrong way around.
A shade of odds-against might seem a short price about a horse who’s had problems. But we are talking about one of Racing’s Greats; who many of us thought was capable of proving the best ever hurdler. Lossiemouth is good, but nowhere near that good.
Get on The Hill!
Value Is EverythingIf CH goes down fighting to Lossiemouth it wouldn’t be the end of the world. He’s been off a while, there is bound to be some race rustiness there. What we don’t want is a blowout for the sake of the race.
An argument can me made either way on who should be favourite. For me, the market looks just about right as Lossiemouth, with her allowance, has that run under her belt, so we know she will be coming over fit and sharp.
Even if CH gets within, say, a length of Lossiemouth, i’d imagine CH connections will be satisfied, as Lossiemouth gets the 7lb allowance on Thursday.
And if CH wins, well, the price will collapse for the Champion Hurdle.
“The Newbury and Kempton pieces of work were obviously disappointing”.
Kempton was more than disappointing. It was a catastrophe and finished his season.
The case for Constitution Hill is clear but there are far too many ifs at the price, even if he would be long odds on at his best. I don’t buy the idea he can run below his best and win. If he is not on his game, he is winning nothing.
Lossiemouth has something to find on the figures but on recent form she is the safe option. Her wellbeing is established and she receives 7lbs from a horse having his first run for a year after a breathing operation and more than one setback.
However, I agree with Glad’s assessment. It is a no bet race for me. It is interesting enough without having to get financially involved.
“I don’t buy the idea he can run below his best and win”.
If believing Constitution Hill’s best is better than Lossiemouth’s best…
Then you must also believe CH can run below form and still win.
Otherwise it does not make sense, CAS.That’s not to say he will, just that he “can”.
Value Is Everything“If he is not on his game, he is winning nothing”.
If not on his game to such an extent that he is more than 10lbs below his best, then he’s probably winning nothing.
Value Is EverythingCH wins as long as he’s at least 90% of peak fitness. If he’s 100% like Nico says, he’ll win easily.
A prime CH absolutely destroys Lossiemouth as not only does he have the bigger engine, his jumping is far superior also. If she made a mistake late on like last time or when beaten at the Dublin festival, CH would be miles clear.
I’m praying he’s back to his best as what a force he was to see before.
Lossiemouth seems to deliver her challenge just before the last hurdle. Constitution Hill tends to use his seamless change of gear shortly into the straight and sustains it easily. My take is that he’ll draw the sting from Lossiemouth.
I’m still adamant that Constitution Hill will win this. Whatever we may say or think about Henderson, he’ll be just as relieved as anyone else to see his grand Champion bounce back
I mean if we go strictly on ORs, CH can’t run 10lbs below, but i know GT isn’t using them for his workings. I’d also say i think Lossiemouth hasn’t shown her full hand in open company yet, so that 160 mark is still possibly on the low side for her. She’s potentially got a few lbs of improvement yet, probably some more than that even. While Con, for all he hasn’t exactly ran tonnes over hurdles, has had the layoffs + whatever, so is he really going to run to his best, or even ever get back to that? Potentially.
Can’t wait.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!
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