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T Doumen…confident….TOO confident. The guy was showboating! He got the horse to win, although i wouldn’t have been happy with the horse being last if i was Doumen’s boss (daddy Doumen).]
Baracouda is obvously a class horse, a very good one. It Takes Time and Telemoss are improving but neither seemed good enough to tackle Baracouda before the race, and so it proved. They were well back at the finish. Bannow Bay’s obviously a class horse too and I think Limestone Lad would have struggled against these two.
Baracouda is a bit cheeky. I don’t know how he’ll handle fences. I’m sure he’s schooled over fences many times but i’m not sure how good he is. He certainly doesn’t appeal as a future Gold Cup winner. Time will tell.
Well done to Best Mate. I didn’t think he’d stay or had the class. He obviously has both and he’s a decent horse.
It will be interesting to see how the form of the front three works out. Gus said, "Once in a while a race goes exactly as you envisaged it and today’s Gold Cup was one such race."
I can say exactly the opposite! :) I didn’t not expect Best Mate to win, i didn’t expect Commanche Court to finish second ahead some horses who have appeared classier and i certainly didn’t think 12 year old See More Business to make the frame.
For See More Business to make the frame here was a superb performance. He won the Gold Cup in 1999 and it is fair to say that he’s not as good now as he was then…which makes me think, he must have been one heck of a horse a few years ago. He’s obviously still very good now but i think he was better then.
Well done again to Best Mate, i was certainly a doubter and happy to be proved wrong by the horse!
RM – Have you ever read one of the 10 year trends columns at anytime?
I’ve only read a couple but the general gist is: The Pillar chase has provided X number of Gold Cup winners. X% of Gold Cup winners have run well at Cheltenham before the Gold Cup. X 6/7 year olds have won the Champion hurdle etc etc
I haven’t read a 10 year trend column that dismisses a horse because it is grey.
The trends of a certain race can point you in the right direction. MH – Firstly, don’t assume that stats buffs would use LLT’s bridle breaking when 20l’s clear as "further evidence of why no horse can retain a gold cup and use that fact to bolster future arguments."
That’s unfair. Consider this – maybe few horses retain the Gold Cup because the last year’s Gold Cup has taken a lot out of them….is that not possible? That would explain the trend wouldn’t it?
I don’t know if LLT will retain the Gold Cup, all i know is that the right man trains him. The form book is the best tool to use but the trends of races and other stats are extremely useful too.
Why will a reproduction of Baracouda’s win at Kempton see him fail to win the Stayers’?
I’m not agreeing or disagreeing, just interested in your reasons.
He did idle in front but was always in control, same story at Sandown. He’s got class about him as he does enough to win against good horses.
I apologise, chased leader not leaders.
The point is still there – has the horse ever won when leading before half-way? He hasn’t, he’s follow horse/s and led 1f out or in the final furlong.
Platinum Duke is not a make all the running horse. He loves to be up with the pace but he’s not one to make all the running and win.
I’m talking about his winning form. His best form (class B races) isn’t of interest to me with regard to tactics. His winning form is what matters…and the horse has never led before half-way and won.
Why go on and make the running on a track where horses leading early have struggled and over 8f – a trip the horse wasn’t proven over. Where is the sense in that?
I’m not saying the race was fixed….i’m just saying they must have had other things on their mind if they thought they could lead early and win.
The horse hasn’t deterioted according to the form book. His turf form was useful enough, some good performances in class B events.
His sand form is a separate issue. The horse ran well in a 0-85 (D) h’cap as Southwell (3rd). Was then an easy winner of a seller and a beaten in a claimer at Lingfield. <br>PDuke should have run better on Saturday in theory although the excuses are there – surface, trip.
I just find the tactics odd.
Baracouda didn’t do much in front at Sandown last season. Same thing at Kempton the other day. Just did enough.
He’ll take a hell of a lot of beating at Cheltenham, although i’d rather look for something proven at the course (i don’t think he’s ever run at Cheltenham but i’m not 100% sure…brain’s a bit fuzzy at 10:00am!)
PR – T Doumen is seriously average a lot of the time. He’s certainly not as good as the top jockeys riding in Britain and Ireland. He’s on a good horse in Baracouda but he could still get him beaten…not one of my favourite jockeys and I wouldn’t want to EVER have him on a horse i owned/trained.
Glenn – Platinum Duke’s two wins came when he "chased" or "tracked" the leaders. In Saturday’s Lingfield race he led after two furlongs and faded. Platinum Duke is usually up with the pace, but when he wins, he hasn’t led so early on in a race as he did on Saturday.
Platinum Duke has won both of his races "tracking" or "chasing" the leaders.
He in fact tracked the leaders to win at Southwell on 14th Feb – why did the connections decide to do the following?
A) Give PDuke 9-5 to carry?<br>B) Step up the horse up from 7f to 8f AND front run?<br>C) Front run on a surfrace where front-runners have been struggling a lot (only a few seem to be able to front run and win)?
Firstly, they raced it on 9-5 so no one would claim the horse (expensive price for a horse that has just won a seller).
Secondly, they are either poor tacticians or plain mad.
Thirdly, see secondly.
It was hardly set out to romp home was it?
Regarding that 2000 CH – the fact remains, Istabraq didn’t go on and win by 10 lengths, he won by 4 and Ashley Park (second EVER run over hurdles) managed to get 4th. I’m not as convinced about that race as I was this morning!
What would be interesting to know is what Henderson feels about Landing Light compared to Blue Royal in terms of hurdling ability.
Istabraq’s 1998 and 1999 CH wins look better on paper than his 2000 win.
As Jjimps said – how far down hill has he gone since then? <br>I don’t think very far personally but it’d be nice to know how far Landing Light/Valiramix/Hors La Loi could beat Blue Royal over hurdles if they raced this season. (Hors La Loi having already beaten BR a neck in 2000). <br>Sadly we won’t get this but i’m sure Nicky Henderson knows how good Landing Light is compared to Blue Royal over hurdles and he has a good line to Isty’s 2000 CH form.<br>
Hors La Loi could certainly over turn form with Valiramix (as he has shown things that Valiramix hasn’t – fast ground, Cheltenham form) and may well be able to over turn form with Landing Light, although that will be a hard task looking at the form book.
Hors La Loi has already been second in the Champion hurdle and it is obvious he’s best on good or faster ground and handles Cheltenham very well.
When people talk of Istabraq’s Champion hurdle form being only average (which it does seem to be) they must take into account that this year’s Champion hurdle is average. Why does a beating of Bilboa or The French Furze or Geos read any better than Istabraq’s form? <br>Valiramix and Landing Light’s form is close – they’ve both beaten each other, they’ve both beaten Rooster Booster, they’ve both beaten The French Furze. They’ve both beaten Hors La Loi (so has Istabraq-although Hors La Loi is capable of beating LL and Valiramix with improvement). None of this is mind blowing form.
That’s a question directed at you lot – why does LL or Valiramix’s form read better than Istabraq’s?
(i’ve just had a change of heart from what I was going to say – looking at Istabraq’s Champion hurdle form of 2000 – LL and Valiramix’s form might actually read a fair bit better – Blue Royal (149 rated) was third (beaten 4l’s and a neck) in that Champion hurdle: delve through the form book and check out LL and Valiramix’s form compared to Isty’s – I was going to say that Isty’s form was better…but perhaps it isn’t after all)
Hors La Loi must have his conditions (and it certainly wasn’t looking soft out there, definately close to good) and he’ll excel.
I think Landing Light’s form is looking quite good now and Valiramix’s was boosted by this win as well.
I think today’s win showed that it wouldn’t be a great idea to completely ignore Hors La Loi IF the ground is decent or better at Cheltenham.
Spot on Smithy, a race like the Dewhurst should definately have more runners in from different trainers – the problems may be these: 1) People don’t want to race against 3 or 4 Coolmore horses (pacemakers etc) 2) there’s something wrong in the breeding industry? Maybe not enough good class 2yo’s are getting to trainers other than O’Brien/bin Suroor and some of the Newmarket trainers.
Rory, Godolphin and Coolmore make things less interesting when they pile up the entries and fight a race out for themselves. Like i’ve said, it may be possible that other trainers don’t want to go up against Coolmore/Godolphin horses that may or may not be top class. Maybe they want to save their younger horss for a 3yo campaign whilst Godolphin/Coolmore don’t really need to. If their main hope (for say the Guineas) isn’t up to running then they must have at least 3 more they could choose from.
The one other things that concerned be about last season was that Galileo ran in the Breeders’ Cup. We all know he wasn’t bred for the surface (unlike Giant’s Causeway) and one workout at Southwell isn’t enough to make sure Galileo would have handled the dirt in America. Why did they run him? Publicity? Did they really think he could have won? Was it O’Brien’s choice or would the choice have been made for him by Galileo’s owners?
Regarding Martin Pipe – i’m not sure i’d send a potential Gold Cup horse to him. I’d probably send a potential Gold Cup horse (or Cheltenham horse) to Noel Chance as he seems to know how to get one ready for the festival as he’s shown with Mr Mulligan and Looks Like Trouble (Mr Mulligan 2nd RSA Chase, LLT 1st RSA chase, Mulligan and LLT 1st Gold Cup).
They don’t have to be agressively campaigned Aidan – Lahan had a couple of runs, one in a Redcar maiden and one in the Rockfel – both wins.
Ameerat had three runs (her final one was 6th in the Rockfel…mental note, check this years Rockfel).
King’s Best ran in the Dewhurst and was last of 5 with O’Brien getting 2nd and 3rd with 14/1 shots.
Excuse me…i just feel the need to wade through the 1000/2000 Guineas trials for the past 10 years…
Sorry Luke, didn’t spot your post until posting mine – Summoner sure wasn’t sent out to beat Noverre…that was all Richard Hills’ work, that i’m sure of.
(Edited by robgomm at 4:41 pm on Feb. 19, 2002)
Yep, on the flat i believe O’Brien/bin Suroor’s multiple entries make the racing less interesting than it should be in pattern events and they both help create smaller fields by scaring off other runners.
Over the jumps i don’t know what it is – there’s money in the pot and they still don’t race! Don’t think it is the same on the flat – it is by no means O’Brien or Godolphin’s fault over the jumps – i can only imagine that there aren’t that many good jumps horses about to run in the better jump races nowadays…it is often you see a small field seller.
When I say "not bothered" i mean that they aren’t interested in piling up entries in races and aren’t interested in throwing their 2yo’s in against O’Brien’s.
Look at Golan, his one run as a 2yo? At Chepstow in a maiden.
There’s plenty of money in the top jumps races over here…but it doesn’t improve field sizes. Ascot have had this problem, they put money into races but the turnout is still small…so there’s more to it than prizemoney in some cases, although what i don’t know.
Smithy – it’d be very nice to see if Summoner really was Group One level. Whatever Roger Charlton has said, the horse still must prove it on course when things aren’t so cosily in his favour (as a forum member spotted before the race and put up Summoner as a MAX.)
There’s no doubting O’Brien’s ability as a trainer. He’s very good but I prefer the Milton Bradley’s of this world who do lots with little. <br>O’Brien deserves credit for last year’s achievment for sure.
I don’t see why O’Brien has to enter so many horses into a Group One. Can he not just select a few to enter and then narrow it down. Perhaps he just has so many horses he doesn’t know what to do with them all.
Stoute, Cecil etc don’t really seem bothered about competing with O’Brien. Godolphin/Ballydoyle will probably continue to battle it out next year as the other trainers don’t seem to realise that if they don’t start putting a strong team together, they’ll never get a shot in as Ballydoyle and Godolphin will just be too strong.
Is a stable second string the same as a pacemaker? Do all stable second strings go quickly early on?
What I disagree with are horses sent out to lose. That is what pacemakers (IN GENERAL) are sent out to do. Make the running at a decent pace, then drop away. Some jockeys (using their brains) decide they’ll take the first prized pot by winning tactically. Nothing wrong with that, makes the yard who have been jabbering on about their other stable horse look a bit silly though.
Would you say Summoner is a geniune Group One horse?
So what if Dick Hern was using pacemakers before O’Brien was born? I’m interested in the use of pacemakers now, and at anyrate, just because they were used back then doesn’t make anymore right or wrong.
So Stoute has 100’s and 100’s of well-bred 2yo’s pouring onto his books from his own stud does he?
Ballydoyle and Godolphin have many more resources compared to any other operation in Britain and Ireland.
I imagine Mark Johnston didn’t want to put one of his 2yo’s up against three of O’Brien’s. As i said, O’Brien entered so many and didn’t make his running plans clear. Others pulled out because they weren’t interested in facing an O’Brien horse that may or may not be top grade. I’m not sure Mark Johnston has ever been interested in running for 4th placed prize money.
Good point about the Pilsudski, Singspiel and Kalanisi’s. Stoute likes to keep a horse going. A racehorse shouldn’t be in operation for its 2yo’s and 3yo years. By the time horses like Galileo retire…they aren’t even fully mature!!
Luke, pacemakers can throw up the occasional surprise all they like. But maybe (since they are going out to make the pace and not win) they should have no-odds placed on them. We could have "betting without the pacemaker" or something like that.
If the Godolphin/Ballydoyle horses are so good, why do they need pacemakers?
Did Galileo have a pacemaker in the Derby? Nope…and he won it. He won on his own merit rather than have one of his own stablemates set the race up for him.
