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Thinking about it again, i guess they trained Valiramix up to have a go for the Tote Gold Trophy so he must have been doing some serious workouts.
He is good fresh, which is a plus but yeah i think you’re right when you saying Landing Light isn’t overraced.
Colin – I’m definately of the opinion that Hors La Loi favours Cheltenham and the Kempton is not his course. He could definately over turn form with Bilboa but will have to a bit more to beat LL.
Hors La Loi hasn’t shown his best form for quite sometime so it would be a gamble but he’s consistently good in his conditions and it is only a fair race by CH standards.
Anyone else spot any long shots that make reach the frame?
Bilboa is not all that consistent but, as said earlier, could come into the reckoning if you take her 4l defeat of Rodock, who beat The French Furze easily who was beaten easily by Valiramix etc etc…definately a maze!
I rated the Christmas Hurdle via HLL whom I took as replicating his best previous rating of 157. This puts Landing Light on a career best of 160. It looked to me like LL would be a bit better again on a more demanding track (like Cheltenham), and he’s still improving, it would seem, so I have him on 160+p which makes him a definite contender.
im pretty sure cols right when he said the pipe stable were surprised by how good he is..if they were having a touch, esc, how come he drifted and mccoy sounded like he wanted to be on another horse??
i think all this talk of hll, bilboa etc is unnecessary.LL’s beat them all and will love the track / speed of race. istys gone so the only ? is whether valiriamix has improved..on the scant evidence available i’d rather be on landing light and he should be a nice price on the day as well
On the question of the Cheltenham track, something Mick Fitzgerald said in his book (A Jump-Jockey’s Life) has always intrigued me:
"People have this image of Cheltenham being a real stamina test over a very stiff course and suiting stamina-laden horses, but nothing could be further from the truth – particularly at the Festival where big fields invariably mean you are tight for space and need a nimble horse who can jump quickly and has the speed to hold a position; exactly the type of horse that excels at Kempton. You rarely get big clumsy horses winning at Cheltenham but if they have a powerful engine they will have their day at Newbury and Haydock, where the long straights give them a chance to unleash full thrust. If a punter wants some advice from this jockey, it would be to follow Kempton form at Cheltenham."
Just thought I’d throw that one in!
That works out well as both the Racing Post chase and King George runners can run well in the Gold Cup and other Cheltenham races.
We already know Landing Light goes at Cheltenham so no problems for him.
Another plus for that statement: the Gold Cup winners don’t have to have won over 3m4f or further, a 3 miler can stay 3m 2f around Cheltenham…so history says anyway.
Obviously each horse is an individual. Looks Like Trouble ran a poor race at Kempton but still won the Gold Cup…but Kempton form works well at Cheltenham.
Dario – I think the talk about HLL and Bilboa is neccessary. I’m looking to get away from the front three (as i’m not sure which will win) and looking for a longer priced horse. Hors La Loi (who in my view likes Cheltenham a lot) has form behind Istabraq and retains ability. He should run his best race of the season at Cheltenham as that’s been his aim. I think he’s been forgotten about too easily…although he’ll have a hard job turning over form with Istabraq. Landing Light has beaten HLL but Hors La Loi should take him close again – if Landing Light wins, Hors La Loi won’t be far away on GOOD or FASTER ground.
rob, sorry..that sounded a bit harsh on reflection..i just meant to say I can’t see beyond LL and ?Valiramix BUT as you say sometihing else has at least got to place and i’m no wiser there
esc, when was the last time the pipe stable had a ‘touch’ that nobody knew about?? they withdrew valiramix cos he didnt have a chance of an inflated OR :)
i have spent many many hours looking at all the form and i KNOW how good they all are. i ignore races which are impossible to rate as they are ambigous at best. i dont think ned kelly is anywhere near good enough to win the CH which is why i give the other french furze races so little credence…if you want further evidence then i seem to remember barton slamming TFF on his comeback over 2m before finishing BEHIND landing light and others..in fact he finished just behind valiramix which would suggest that valiramix did no more this year than in that race
hll really isnt the horse he was when coming 2nd to isty (which wasnt that good a performance anyway) and i personally cant see him placing this year
oh and just one last word on copeland :) landing light won that champ race at sandown off a mark of 146 at 12-1..copeland is now on 150something
(Edited by dario at 12:14 pm on Feb. 16, 2002)
hi esc, for a start i dont think they entered copeland in the CH cos as i said i dont think they realised just how good he’s become..i mean it’s not like m pipe to shy away from multiple entries now is it!!
i’d be quite happy if valiramix has improved but until i get a definite NEW rating for him i cant bet on him..i’ll be backing LL on the day and if it so happens that Val has improved enough to beat him then fair enough..it should be a cracking race..i’ll still have got a decent price and had a good run for my money.. HOWEVER it wouldnt be the first time the pipe stable think a horse is better than it transpires to be..jus take magnus / stormez recently
out of interest why do you think they havent raced valiramix more than once this year??
it also seems copeland will be running next week sometime so that shoud be interesting :)
as to who i rank above hll,
i’m not sure of geos’ ground preference but on LAST years form he’s better than hll is at the moment. the only other one is barton and he won’t be running so yes hll could well run into a place but i’d be inclined to put any money anyone was thinking of having on him on whichever of LL or Val they think are better cos it’ll work out better value
HI Esc….re the HLL question. I think the front four in the betting will finish ahead of him. He’ll probably be scrapping for 5th or 6th place, that’s assuming all the market leaders turn up & reproduce their form. If a couple of them don’t fire, I suppose HLL could just sneak into a place. I do worry for him a little though, he reached his plateau a couple of years ago & although he’s consistent, he doesn’t seem to have any more improvement in him over hurdles, unlike a few others in the field. What else could finish ahead of him? Apart from Bilboa, I can’t see a great deal.
If we are scratching around for long shots who could run well, Brother Joe (will relish decent ground & Mel Collier’s tipped him. I’m personally not sure he’s quick enough for 2m in a CH, but time has proved MC to be a better judge than me!) I’ve almost given up trying to work out how P.Nicholls horses are going to run, but if any of the excuses for Azertyuiop’s bad runs are valid, he could run better than a 33/1 shot, he not got the form in the book, but when a Nicholls run well, it tends to run very well! (if that makes sense). My problem with his horses is they don’t seem to run two races alike, unless they are bad ones! For me though, there are too many good horses at the front of the market to spend too much time working on the outsiders. It’s not saying a lot, but to me the CH winner will be either Landing Light, Ned Kelly & Valiramix, I’m not sure which one though!
The Wincanton race on Thursday could tell us a lot more. I normally miss the midweek racing, but I’m going to make an effort to sneak out & watch that one.
Hi RM…. I read your comments about M.Fitzgerald’s book with great interest. Someone else, I think it was A.Potts, wrote something similar recently, suggesting some courses that are assumed to be tight for example, are in fact not, & vice versa. (I’m not sure if he mentioned Cheltenham.) I’m always open to ideas, I can see where they are coming from, but I’m not sure if I totally agree. As an example, a small flat-bred horse, may be able to scoot around a flat track like Kempton or Fakenham to win a hurdle race, but I’m not sure I would be confident he/she would get home at Cheltenham. I suppose if you divide the Cheltenham course up into quarters. There’s one quarter, it would be the third one, where the field quickly turn left, drop down a the hill, jump a hurdle & then turn towards the home straight; where a nimble, fleet of foot horse would be much more comfortable than a big galloping type, but whether that advantage would be negated by the stiff uphill finish….I’m not sure? I do accept you need a horse that can travel well in a race, particularly over 2m. I would think you do need a horse that does have an element of stamina as well though, & a bit of tactical speed…….a bit like Istabraq in fact!
BTW, what did you think of M.Fitzgerald’s book? I haven’t read it yet, as I normally struggle with autobiographies.
(Edited by Colin Little at 11:56 am on Feb. 17, 2002)
Hello Colin,
It’s not a bad read (I know what you mean about autobiographies). Fairly run of the mill but it does include a nice chapter about the season’s big meetings.
Clearly Kempton is flat and right-handed and Cheltenham isn’t! But I think Fitzgerald is on to something. He doesn’t agree with the received wisdom that Kempton is an "easy" track, or at least not in the few top class races there when the taps are full on. Here’s another quote from his book:
"People say that because Kempton is flat, the King George is suited to horses who only just stay three miles, but I don’t hold with that view – it is run at too strong a pace to suit non-stayers. The class of the horses mean that everything happens faster than in an ordinary race; the front runners really bowl along and because it is a tight track they are always turning the bend which tends to make them run close together to save ground. This in turn makes them work just that little bit harder… The whole race is a thorough test from start to finish and you must have stamina to last up the home straight. While people say the King George has little relevance to what might happen in the Gold Cup in March, I’m not so sure. True, the Gold Cup is run over a further two furlongs, on a left-handed undulating track with a stiff uphill finish. But the undulations do mean you can get a breather into your horse, particularly running downhill, which is not the case at Kempton."
I’m not really interested in comparing King George results with Gold Cup results to "prove" some point. In the last decade it seems to me that a fair number of Gold Cup winners didn’t go to Kempton (Cool Ground, Jodami, Master Oats, Imperial Call, Cool Dawn). Those who did, generally have a good King George record (The Fellow won it twice, Mr Mulligan ran well when falling at the last, See More Business won it twice, Look like Trouble’s run isn’t given to much useful analysis).
Now people will say, but what about Desert Orchid, One Man and Florida Pearl? This is fair enough, but it doesn’t really interest me that much. And to me it certainly doesn’t indicate that Best Mate will fail to stay the trip in March. Maybe he will, maybe he won’t.
What really interests me is this point about how Cheltenham is well suited to nimble types with the class and speed to keep position. Fitzgerald said something similar the other day – something about how Marlborough relishes "those tight turns". Prestbury Park is a stiff track alright, especially over the Gold Cup trip, but it’s not a galloping track like Newbury or Haydock. Mick’s views, if you agree with them, are perhaps more relevant when looking at the races, and especially the chases, run over shorter trips at the Festival. Which is why I like Fondmort’s chances in the Arkle, for example.<br> <br>Apologies for rambling.
RM I’m afraid I can’t let you get away with bracketing Desert Orchid with One Man and Florida Pearl although he did have a better record in the King George than the Gold Cup.He did win one Gold Cup on Heavy ground and was also third when in my opinion with a more enterprising ride he would have won again. DO also won the Irish GN over 3m5f so to label him a non stayer would be rather unfair.
As to the general comparison between the two courses I would maintain that they are very different the King George and Gold Cup are the two top staying chases of the year and it is hardly surprising that the same horses have been prominent in them both on some occassions. I would very much like to hear Mick Fitzgerald explain why he thinks One Man could land the King George in a canter and patently not stay the Gold Cup trip.
(Edited by jjimps at 4:29 pm on Feb. 17, 2002)
jjimps, I’m not bracketing those horses together. People generalise about the game too much in my view. Of course Desert Orchid was a proper stayer. For him it was a left-handed thing, and even when struggling I’m told he always gave everything.
There are horses like One Man and Florida Pearl who have been found out on that hill. I don’t think Mick Fitz is denying the tracks aren’t very different in some ways. And I don’t think he’s denying that the Gold Cup trip is a more severe test. But I guess he would also say that they had to be stayers to win their respective King Georges. Didn’t One Man also win a Hennessy?
<br>jjumps
regarding desert orchard it was a very weak gc that he won especially after 10 plus fell.
it was his aversion to left hand tracks rather than a lack of stamina that was desert orchards problem
colin much as i like m fitgerald i found his book a little hard going i dont know why.
One Man did indeed win the Henessey but under only 10-1 a I remember so he was pretty much a shoo in regardless of the conditions considering his class.
Desert Orchid was indeed a better horse right handed but a record of one win and 2 seconds in 3 runs in the Gold Cup is hardly to be sniffed at. In his 2nd GC won by Nortons Coin I still beleive he would have run the race with a better ride he came up the stands side as NC and Toby Tobias went up the rail denying Dessie the chance to show the amazing battling qualitites he possesed.
Hors La Loi must have his conditions (and it certainly wasn’t looking soft out there, definately close to good) and he’ll excel.
I think Landing Light’s form is looking quite good now and Valiramix’s was boosted by this win as well.
I think today’s win showed that it wouldn’t be a great idea to completely ignore Hors La Loi IF the ground is decent or better at Cheltenham.
As a staunch Isty fan I firmly believe the only opposition comes from Ned Kelly and Hors La Loi
The last named is always likely to produce it when you least expect it, and at his best is a very very talented horse. Within four lengths of Isty at his best. I don’t think any of the others would have got within four lengths of Isty in his prime,
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