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<br> re hll i would be a little worried about his reliabilty as a yardstick as he is a noted bleeder. and of course soft ground places more emphasis on the lungs so there is always the possibility he can chuck one here or there
If you really believe Valiramix had at least 10 lenghts in hand at Newbury then I’d reluctantly suggest (‘cos I’m Isty’s biggest fan) that you’re looking at the new Champion Hurdler.
I saw the race too, and Valiramix was different class. But then how many lengths would you say Rodock had in hand the day he beat The French Furze. I also remember being impressed by some of Dato Star’s performances.
Istabraq for me. And round Cheltenham, I expect Landing Light to beat Valiramix as well.
esc, valiramix last ran in a handicap all of 3 races ago..not long is it
he did indeed look very impressive when beating TFF but as remittance man said rodock looked EQUALLY as good and he showed against bilboa that he hasnt improved so i am choosing to ignore the 3 conditions races where TFF as finished 2nd this year as they can be no more than hypothesis
on last years form landing light was better than valiramix and given that copeland wont actually be running in the CH ( though i would still be interested to know if you can supplement a horse ) i’d be on landing light this year..isty is gonna suffer and i just hope it isnt too bad for the horses sake..if you believe the reports then he’ll have jumped approximately 10 hurdles since last year and that cant be healthy
as maurice said the tote handicap form is rock solid and way better than either of the 2 main protagonists achieved in handicaps
i watched the tape again and it was interesting to see just how little chance mccoy thought he had and the way he drifted shows he wasnt exactly expected to win like that..it’s a shame they didnt interview mccoy AFTER the race as i think it would have been enlightening
<br>be wary of copeland he won what in my opinion a lower class than normal tote tactically with the appallingly ridden proffessional loser rooster booster being given to say the least an injudicous ride.
compare this years field with last years and u may see what i mean.
copeland may have improved but he was flattered to win so far he is short of grp 1 class and may find the handicapper will now have him by the balls
as esc says it seems that the victory was well plotted up
regarding valirimix yes agood horse may be but in my mind some of the form used to boost him involves a lot of proffessional losers like rb tff and dodgy horses like hll
i agree landing light will be the one for the ch.
and before anyone says it ;) raceform rated hll performence against valirimix being 17lb worse than his performence against barraccouda a race which actually fitted hll s profile (going fresh on fast ground)
PR – I don’t think that race again Baracouda was in Hors La Loi’s favourite conditions. 2m 4f is not his trip – he’s show three times that he doesn’t stay.
When he raced fresh at Wincanton he defeated Auetaler by 1/2 length – hardly the profile of a horse that likes running fresh.(he then went on to be 2nd in the CH which shows he may have needed that Wincanton run) I don’t reckon things were in HHL’s favour that day at Ascot.
HHL, as we now all know, must have good or faster ground. 2 miles is most definately his distance and it could be argued that Cheltenham is his favourite track.
Whether he retains enough ability to go close again in the CH is another matter completely. He’s only a 7yo so there’s plenty of time for him to go chasing.
<br>robbo
when he was second at ascot although he didnt stay he did run well and the ground was noted by chaseform as g/f good in places and of course the third horse ( a stayer) that day franked the form (albeit on different ground)
if u check his record whilst he was with pipe he ran well on soft he went to france and raced for douman and ran reasonable on soft but if you check his record since then it is noticable that as soon as the word soft appears in the going description his performences deteroriate.
it has already been stated that he is a bleeder and generally bleeders go well fresh
and as far as i am aware bleeding is a condition that develops rather like things develop on human beings ie horses are not born bleeders (someone with more experience on this subject may correct me) but it seems when he retuned from france he must have developed it as his performences changed thereafter.
when he ran fresh at wincanton after a 3 month break he won and then after a month he came 2nd to isty again the word fresh appears.
if you look at his recent record he has the profile of a horse liking small fields and good or fast ground which he got as ascot but didnt at newbury (word soft in going) and soft going affects bleeders (its harder on the lungs)
i also note at kempton he was tongue tied perhaps the connections noticed something in his running at newbury and again the word soft was missing from the going description
yes he is a young horse but a horse with problems that will probably always hold him back (unfortuantly) and i dont think chasing will be the key to him
u say it could be argued that cheltenham is his favorite track whilst neither ascot or newbury is cheltenham at least ascot is similar in having an uphill finish barring the fact his victory was at wincanton a rh flat track (ie after his problems)
of course it is not essential for a bleeder to run fresh genrally accepted by many trainers as the thing to do as it doesnt mean they (being the horses)will bleed like clockwork every time in fact they may feel pain and turn in a poor performence to prevent further pain and bleeding.
the horse is consistent but notibally in small fields.<br>
Look Escorial if you honestly believe Hor La Loi ran the same race against Valiramix as he did against Landing Light………FINE!But dont try to convince me!<br> Your example of Hor La Loi’s best run is pretty weak!!!Good to soft ground at Cheltenham in description only………………..very misleading and the time of the race and indeed all the races that day point to the ground being much faster.Also he beat a blantent non stayer like Joe Mac who not for the first time detested the hill at Cheltenham but went on to show his true worth at Aintree.How you can rate his novice run above that of his Champion Hurdle second is beyond me!!?<br> And why is Rodock been left out of the picture?He won just as easily from the French Furze as Valiramix did.Yet he was rated below the horse???Makes no sense to me.He then goes on and gets slaughtered by Bilboa(who was reported to be far from fully fit) who was in turn cut down with a devastating amount of speed by Landing Light over a track that wouldnt suit.<br> I can understand why people like Landing Light…………..I do too.Valiramix needs soft ground and his jumping is anything but impressive and on his one run at the festival he flopped big time.He has alot to prove.<br>
Regarding Hors La Loi going chasing, he doesn’t look to me anywhere near the right build to jump fences. As a french bred I would imagine he would have been schooled over fences at least two years ago and would have thought if he had shown any aptitude in his schooling we would have seen him in novice chases by now.
(Edited by johnny boy at 1:06 pm on Feb. 15, 2002)
Good point about him being schooled a while back Johnny Boy – i think you are very likely to be right about him having been schooled already and not shown any aptitude.
PR – yep, HHL definately doesn’t go on any sort of soft ground now, as you said, because he’s a bleeder. I do think he has a liking for Cheltenham more than any other course but i see your point about the uphill Ascot finish. I just have a feeling that he’s not one to totally rule out of the Champion Hurdle just yet. He does have ability and has been placed in the CH before.
Does anyone know how CH placed horses fare in future CH’s?
There could be a big priced horse making the frame in the Champion this season. It isn’t a strong race and there’s always the possibilty that one of the three market leaders will throw in a bad run, Valiramix being the most likely as his one run at Cheltenham was a well beaten one.
Even though I don’t back him very often, I do put myself up as a bit of a HLL anorak. He is actually a very consistant horse, given the right conditions. All you need to do is look back at his form since Cheltenham 1999, & concentrate on races where the going was genuinely good or better. Thats gives you a record of 11124223, all in Gde A races, & consistantly running to OR’s in the 150-160 region. When he hasn’t had those conditions, his record is 37PPP3. He seemed to develop an inability to handle soft groung half way though his career! (since he originally came over from France in fact). Some people throw up the fact that he won the 1999 Supreme Novices at Cheltenham on GS, but that may be a bit of a red herring. That race was run 4.7s inside standard time, that suggests the going was not GS. His other GS win came in a weakish Aintree race, where the ground may not have been that bad. If it is just about GS, he may be able to get away with it, but not genuine soft.
He could not run well, or run to his mark, in Valiramix’s Newbury race because of the prevailing ground.
The thing that interests me about Valiramix, is the stable confidence. They have Rodock & Copeland, but talk about Valiramix as though he’s in a different league. I wouldn’t have a worry about the course for him, but if the ground come up quick, we’re into unkown territory. You could argue that’s why he finished so far back in the 2000 Triumph hurdle, he does come from a family of soft ground specialists.
<br>colin
i think as i already pointed out the change on going came whenn he returned from france that is when i would suggest his bleeding problems may have started.
i agree with your comments concerning his performences in good or soft ground but would point out that they are also mainly in small fields .
there is plenty of stable confidence and with the way rodock and copeland have performed in the past it is hardly suprising they prefer valirimix.
re the express it may have been the going but could well have been a combination of the 2 after all his form so far is on either flat galloping tracks or at least easy tracks with an uphill finish sandown.
there is one other question as well last year his jumping was sketchy and at newbury it was clearly improved but if u take sir talbot out of the equation (he never competed) and allow hll ran a poor race which according to chaseform he ran 17lb below his ascot running it was a 2 horse race and tff is not much better than a mere handicapper so his jumping was unlikely to have been put to the gun so to speak.
it is going to be an interesting ch this year and in my opinion it is going to be a close run race
Valiramix and Landing Light were both raised significantly in the ratings when they finished third and first respectively in the Championship hurdle at Sandown.
The way they were risen seems to suggest that Geos ran to form…and i think we can say he didn’t as he should have beaten both of them. Is it possible that both LL and Valiramix have improved significantly since that Sandown race?
Landing Light had previously beaten Rooster Booster in the Tote Gold Trophy, that doesn’t merit a mark in the 160’s.
Valiramix had been second to Ibal (with old Rooster Booster in third) and that didn’t merit being in the high 150’s.
Valiramix is on a high mark (160’s) now but that is too high for what he has achieved. Landing Light hasn’t done enough to warrant such a high mark either.
This year’s CH must be an average one if two horses like these are so well fancied. I don’t think that, in a high class CH, they would have much of a chance.
PR…..I see you had already made the point about HLL coming from France. I did the same thing when the other day when repeating LLT’s Cheltenham record for about the third time. It comes from rushing to try & read everything during my lunch hour. Sorry about that!
BTW, the Elite Racing Club will be after you for calling the Triumph Hurdle the Express :o
I would have though the stable confidence behind Valiramix was significant, especially considering how highly the other two are now rated. On a slightly different note, I still think they were a bit surprised about Copeland, when that stable fancy a horse it’s normally supported.
You could possibly be right about the Cheltenham course being a problem for Valiramix, it’s an uncertainty, isn’t it.  I had it in my mind that he would be OK on a course like Cheltenham, it’s not as though he’s had recent leg problems or anything. I thought a fast race on a tight track may be more of problem to him.
I can understand why people have not got total confidence in that Newbury race, but in the horses defence the time was good, & he seemed to win with a lot in hand. It would have been nice to see him come out and win again, it would have given his form a more solid, reliable look, a bit like Landing Light’s, I do accept that.
<br>
Valiramix goes really well fresh so that could well be a big plus on the day. Landing Light’s been on the go longer than Valiramix.
I can’t rule out Hors La Loi.<br>Colin – "All you need to do is look back at his form since Cheltenham 1999, & concentrate on races where the going was genuinely good or better. Thats gives you a record of 11124223, all in Gde A races, & consistantly running to OR’s in the 150-160 region. When he hasn’t had those conditions, his record is 37PPP3."
That is quite a confidence booster! I think Hors La Loi will have a great chance on good or faster ground. He has the ability to get placed in what is definately an average Champion hurdle.
Hi Rob,
My opinion, for what it’s worth, is that the Kempton Christmas Hurdle form is about as good as Hors La Loi III is. That’s at least 3l behind Landing Light,  & just ½l behind Bilboa.
Considering the best bookmaker prices (haven’t checked Betfair) are Bilboa 14/1 & HLL 33/1, I suppose he can be looked upon as value. The problem is both of them just may not be good enough to make the frame, although I can see them both running their races. ÂÂÂ
<br>robbo
landing light has had 2 races his first about 10 days before valirimix and his last was on dec26th hardly on the go or over raced . and if the going was not so bad last saturday they may well have run valirimix.
after all some of the criticism of isty stems from the fact he has not had a race since his debut this year
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