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copeland

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  • #4142
    dario
    Member
    • Total Posts 45

    bit late i know but was a way and am still cathcing up on weekends racing

    but this was an amazing performance. much better than landing light and arguably better than make a stand’s win in this race before going on to win the CH.

    pipe must be kicking himself this isnt in it this year cos with french furze arguably letting the valiramix/rodock form down in ireland this was, IMO, the best performance by a 2 mile hurdler this year

    he’s clearly a different horse to last year and i just thought he warranted a mention is all :)

    #97919
    Jim JTS
    Member
    • Total Posts 841

    I agree dario , I was impressed by Copeland’s win and he does look much improved, I backed him on his penultimate start when he won but left this race alone because my fancy (Marble Arch) ran in this and I wasn’t sure about the ground. I was amazed at his odds though!

    #97921
    dario
    Member
    • Total Posts 45

    to be fair its impossible to say exactly how well VAL ran on his only start this year as using the french furze as a marker is questionable especially after how easily rodock beat him but just 3 runs ago he was getting beat in a handicap of 143 NOW i know pipe says hes better this year and thats obviously possible seeing copelands improvement but i’d like to see him do it in a competitve field before im convinced

    copeland did just that and while i dont know the exact OR’s of VAL and copeland AFTER sat’s race i DO know that the handicapper does make mistakes as i have argued with you before but i dont really want to go there again

    tony mccoy wasnt too hot on copelands chances beofre the race and its unusual to see a pipe horse drift and still win so im not sure they knew exactly how good he was before that race

    i am right in thinking that you can’t supplement horses for the big races aren’t i?

    #97923
    dario
    Member
    • Total Posts 45

    i know of at least 2 instances..but thats another story :)

    out of interest esc can you post what their current OR’s are and also where do you find them out?

    #97925
    Maurice
    Participant
    • Total Posts 355

    Copeland was visually impressive and the form will work out well (‘cos it always does in this race) but he’s some way behind (perhaps not as much as Esc or the BHB believe) Valiramix. If you thought this was a worthy Champion Hdl;e trial perhaps you should seriously consider getting your hard-earned on Valiramix.

    Just a suggestion, not advice. I have no inside info.

    #97928
    remittance man
    Member
    • Total Posts 63

    The Pipe yard’s decision to set Copeland’s sail for home earlier in a race has worked like a charm.

    When Copeland refused to pass Majlis in the Lanzarote, I thought: "Here we go again – hold tight for another frustrating season for Copeland!"  But then McCoy took the initiative early in that race at Cheltenham, and then repeated the dose at Newbury.  Clearly a good tactical move.

    #97929
    dario
    Member
    • Total Posts 45

    copeland can’t possibly be on 142 AFTER sat’s race!! you mean to say he hasnt gone up at all for that win?? must be a good thing for future handicaps then!!

    im pretty sure the PR dbase only shows the OR’s they had going into races and not what they’ll be for future ones unless im missing something

    you say its not champion hurdle form yet as i said it was probably a better run than CHAMPION HURDLER make a stands win in the race and it was at least a stone better than landing light’s win last year and that was enough to make him fancied had the CH taken place.

    you have  a misplaced divine faith in the official raters esc cos that was one of the most impressive 2m hurdle handicap wins ive seen and it would have been enough to hammer valiramix this time last year..it remains to be seen if that was has improved in just 2 runs  but i’d have copeland off levels at the moment

    #97932
    prince regent
    Member
    • Total Posts 221

    <br>sorry dario  but whilst maurice is right the form will hold up, it normally does in this race,  it wasnt a top class field or tote by any means top  rated this year ran of 142  last year  top rated was 156

     ran a good race copeland and looked impressive   but not the same form as landing light last year and rememeber he was well behind landing light then.

    #97936
    Smithy
    Member
    • Total Posts 720

    Valiramix is rated 167 not 158 Esc – that was his rating prior to that race. Same with Copeland who has gone up to 156 – not that he’ll be winning off that mark. The figure on the RP site represents thae mark trhey ran off in that race.

    #97937
    elderberry
    Member
    • Total Posts 22

    Smithy

    Where did you find out their new ratings?  Is it possible to get them on-line? :confused:

    #97939
    Colin Little
    Member
    • Total Posts 338

    I’m with PR & Esc on this one, not the greatest TGT ever seen, Copeland has definately improved though. If you take a line through Rooster Booster (who had been aimed at this all year, almost to the point of being not off at Cheltenham on his previous run). Imo he can be used as a solid target horse.

    In 2001    Copeland gave RB 5lb & finished 9l behind him<br>This year  Copeland gave RB 11lb & finished 6l in front of him.

    …..I see RB got raised 6lb for his troubles as well.

    I still think Regal Exit has got a decent race in him on good ground. I got the impression he was just not quite ready for the TGT, & that combined with unfavourable ground gave him little chance.

    #97941
    robgomm
    Member
    • Total Posts 224

    I think perhaps Regal Exit’s connections should have been done under the non-triers rule. The horse was barely moved out of the rear and i think had one smack for the whole race. His sights are set somewhere else…Champion Hurdle?

    #97943
    Smithy
    Member
    • Total Posts 720

    You can’t get them on-line unfortunately but, if you ring Weatherbys on 01933 440077 and ask for handicapping they should tell you. They won’t thank you for it but it does seem to be the only way to get them – new ratings reach them on a Tuesday at about 11.00.

    #97944
    Colin Little
    Member
    • Total Posts 338

    Rob, I’m not sure if he’d make it in that sort of class, but he does look very nicely handicapped (OR 132). I would think a decent fast ground handicap is what they have got in mind for him.

    If you look back to the 2000 Triumph Hurdle, he was 2nd, but there were horses who finished down the field in that race, who have since run & won off far higher marks. (including Valiramix, but he is probably not the best example). If RE can find that sort of form again, & he hasn’t had the ground conditions or fitness level to do so yet, he could be very well in.

    Re handicap marks, Raceform Update (out today) tells you who’s gone up & down over the last week or so.

    <br>

    #97945
    elderberry
    Member
    • Total Posts 22

    Re Valiramix

    Can a horse who was beaten over 17L into 16th place in a Triumph hurdle win the CH two years later?  I don’t think so.  Has any horse being unplaced in the Triumph and gone on to win the CH?

    Regal Exit – would be a good bet on good ground in the county hurdle, which is what he’s probably being aimed at.  No chance in the CH.

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