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can looks like trouble retain a gold cup? Only two horses in the past fifty years have done it. No horse in the past thrity years. will this stop the horse?
I would think that the form book and not trends would stop the horse. I think LLT has every chance in a very open year. Some stats are useful some are not, but it is the form book that present the most reliable avenue for dismissing and selecting horses.
The thing that pisses me off about stats buffs is that if LLT was 20 lengths clear at the last and ran out because of a bridle breaking, the statistican would say that it was further evidence of why no horse can retain a gold cup and use that fact to bolster future arguments.
On record tied cottage – not just because he was irish, just the one that springs to mind – didnt win a gold cup, but he was the moral victor of two. stats dont tell everything , some are more useful than others i suppose.
Esc, have you ever followed the 10 Year Trends column in the Racing Post? I haven’t, but I’m worried that I might be missing valuable insights and future winners.
I think they look at certain key races and say something like, "Having regard to results over the last ten years, this race is usually won by a six or seven year old second season (usually bay) chaser which has already won over the distance, is flat-bred and trained in the north by a man with a lisp. Avoid greys because they have never won this race."<br> <br>This is pretty phenomenal stuff, so can you give me some statistics on how successful the column has been this season?
About 10 years ago I used to always keep an eye on the trends.Sometimes they can be useful sometimes completely duff.<br>I remember looking at the trends for the William Hill Trophy at York one year,a handicap over six furlongs and deciding you needed a potential Group horse to win it.<br>Basically I declared to all my mates that Sheikh Albadou was a Group horse masquerading as a handicapper.He carried a light weight to victory in the handicap before winning the Nunthorpe and Breeders Cup Sprint.<br>As Morgans Harbour says it is all a matter of interpretation and some stats are useless.
RM – Have you ever read one of the 10 year trends columns at anytime?
I’ve only read a couple but the general gist is: The Pillar chase has provided X number of Gold Cup winners. X% of Gold Cup winners have run well at Cheltenham before the Gold Cup. X 6/7 year olds have won the Champion hurdle etc etc
I haven’t read a 10 year trend column that dismisses a horse because it is grey.
The trends of a certain race can point you in the right direction. MH – Firstly, don’t assume that stats buffs would use LLT’s bridle breaking when 20l’s clear as "further evidence of why no horse can retain a gold cup and use that fact to bolster future arguments."
That’s unfair. Consider this – maybe few horses retain the Gold Cup because the last year’s Gold Cup has taken a lot out of them….is that not possible? That would explain the trend wouldn’t it?
I don’t know if LLT will retain the Gold Cup, all i know is that the right man trains him. The form book is the best tool to use but the trends of races and other stats are extremely useful too.
<br>rm
i use statistics perhaps and hopefully not blindly i would rule a horse out blindly becuase of all stats but re your comment concerning io year trends i would note as follows
aa a the race in question has to be a rough duplicate of previous races and by that as an example if u take the rp chase on saturday one trend is that all winners bar one were rated 140+ the lowest being on 132 with only red striker rated on 140+ it was fairly obvious that stat could be thrown out of the window
bb another factor to take into account is if stats remove all horses except one then that is also clearly a race where stats will be misproven
cc so using stats should leave you with a small field that has to be reduced to one sole member and coming to that is where 10 year trends coloumn is no different than any other he still has to make a correct selection
dd heres a useful stat for cheltenham concerning 5 year olds no 5 year old has won the stayers for 30 years only one 5 year old has won the pertemps 3m2f hurdle pragda no 5 year old has won the coral cup
and numerous have tried so would you on that fact back a five year old for a long distance hurdle it would indicate to me that the races do not suit 5 year olds of course with the input of french breds this may change if the best ones are not sent chasing
mh
u have a valid point re llt running out it would reflect in the stats
regarding the stat concerning multiple winners of the gold cup the last horse to do it was the underrated (imho) l,escargot a horse whom not only won 2 gc but a supreme and a gn the form book may show as the stats do that there simply has not been a horse whom has tried to do the double in the past years being as good as lescargot (or u may say as consistent)
As I have said to Escorial before it is wrong to base your reading of a race on one single factor.In the case of Escorial we argued over the form book being the be all and end all in deciding what to back as it .This is similar……….if you base your opinion on a race based solely one of the following…………1)Form Book 2)Stats 3) Price etc you will more than often fail in general to get by. It is much better to take all of them into account and then apply your own knowledge or opinion to the race.I make fortunes from this I swear……………………..yeah right!!!
The fact is, many stats and records are broken every day all the time,
I really don’t think horses are that homogenised that they will all necessary follow the same trends …
i have said previously that lescargot must be the most underrated horse ever but that is irrelevent. ( fifth in a champion hurdle also.
Rob, I know why gold cup winners dont often repeat teh trick. It does take a lot of winning. If it was reduced by 2 and half furlongs the stats would change but it is a tough test. The horse doesnt know the stats. I dont dismiss the stats, weight ranges in the grand national one example
Just on the five year old thing… le coudray came very close to winning a stayers. If the stayers had JDC against selers would JDc be dismissed because he was 5. i recognise teh use of stats – it wouldnt be stayers if it was just contested by five year olds and sellers – just using an example to try to show that …….
its the formbook stupid:biggrin:
Sorry to bring this back up again guys (this thread obviously moves quicker than I do), but I’m curious…
Esc, if you know so perfectly well about Flakey Dove, and are so sure about Morley Street and Granville Again, what alien being took over your body and persuaded you to write
‘Since 1990, only two winners have been National Hunt bred horses’
a fact that is plainly wrong?  I think you should get help for that before its too late.. :biggrin:
I’m also very distressed that you misread my manipulative stat – 8 of the last 16 winners (ie individual horses) that have won the Champion Hurdle have been N.H. bred.  Its a completely valid stat.  As is the one that says last time a horse won 3 Champion Hurdles, for the next two years the race was won by N.H. bred horses….
As Luke says, lies, damn lies and …..
<br>Right I’ll leave you guys to it  :wave: ÂÂÂ
aiden
yes i agree with you that more than one thing should be taken into consideration not just form book or stats
prince takes mh foot out of his mouth and replies
if it was jdc or le choudhry against sellers  then the stat would be broken  but i have already said for a stat to have some validity the race in question must   resemble past races in terms  or age or weight or spread of field.
  was there any point in its in the form book………..
 of course one cannot use stats on  their own  to make a selection  but if i was going to back a five year old in one of the long distance hurdles  i would like to think i could find a reason in the form book  that  would make it capabale of doing something that so many others  have failed to do
ÂÂÂ
(Edited by prince regent at 6:45 pm on Feb. 27, 2002)
Now that this thread has developed into one about statistics here is an interesting one for Escorial.
No flat-bred horse has finished in the first four in the last 6 gold cups. (couldn’t be bothered to go back any further though I’m sure it’s a similar story)
This doesn’t bode well for your e/w fancy Shooting Light.<br>He is by Shernazar out of a Caerleon mare who was a 6f/1m winner at two and three years.  SL himself ran once as a 2-y-o and 9 times as a 3-y-o (twice over hurdles).
Try manipulating that stat!    :biggrin:
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