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Betting Patterns

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  • #4148
    pixo
    Member
    • Total Posts 32

    I’ve seen it happened before Punter but not to today’s extent. Be careful mate.

    #98132
    Deany
    Member
    • Total Posts 18

    If, punter, as you are suggesting someone has laid the horse on Betfair, then they must have a lot of available funds to get into thier BF account. 30K just lying around.?

    I think you are right in your theory though, with the Betfair site this will be alot easier to do, especialy if someone has got a hot fav on a Sat in a race that is only worth 3K.

    You obviously have got your eye on the situation, watching the ammount taken on the horse and as more and more was taken your suspicions were aroused.

    If you see any more like this then post em up so we can all get on the the trying outsiders!!;) ;)

    #98136
    larry layer
    Member
    • Total Posts 84

    I think this is to be expected really, good luck to you if you can spot this happening.  Maybe a study of the statistics of money taken on there is in order.  I am a big one for studying stats…

    Having 30K hanging around is probably very little money compared to some of the betfair big hitters.. and would probably be very easy to amass after a couple of races of laying a certain loser at a great price.  I don’t speak from experience, but I do tend to spend a lot of hours watching markets on Betfair and some people have incredible amounts of money to play with.  And people do make hundreds a day on there I have no doubt.

    #98138
    larry layer
    Member
    • Total Posts 84

    Good spot Punter!  I shall also be joining in next time !  :biggrin:   This person should at least make the price a little less obvious from now on… I think a 4/9 shot layed at 4/5 aught to be screaming out!

    #98141
    Slippy Blue
    Member
    • Total Posts 43

    Larry , be in no doubt that people make many 1000`s per day on BF not 100`s.<br>Let everyone  realise that bookmakers, owners , trainers,jockeys, professional gamblers are all in the melting pot along with joe public.<br>Barry Dennis took a 6000/4000 at Lingfield not long ago and backed it 7000/4000 on BF.<br>The horse won ensuring a 1K profit.<br>Punter has spotted a pattern that all BF punters can follow, simply press the i button next to any given horse and you can monitor £ traded and at what prices.<br>Add to the crucible all the hacks and racing pundits that we all read and see every day, and the info they are all privvy to.<br>The Headmaster,Bacchanal minow minor et al. (BF forumites).<br>Tread carefully boys and girls.

    #98143
    TheMaster
    Member
    • Total Posts 31

    larry, all well and good joining in, but they dont all get beat plenty of them win, at the smaller meeting especially in the middle of the week, betfair take more money on a lot of races than is actually wagered at the track, so betfair prices are probally more reflective of an horses chance than the actual price from the race track.<br>

    #98145
    larry layer
    Member
    • Total Posts 84

    I’m aware Master :) horses have a knack of winning when I don’t want them to! lol… however if something is getting laid at a big price and for unusual amounts of money.. the night before…  it’s a little amiss isn’t it ?  We are talking about laying here and not backing.  If someone is laying that much I am inclined to think that it is more likely to lose than when a horse that is backed heavily –> is likely to win… (if that makes sense !?!?!)

    Many times now I have watched a betfair market for horse races take on their own shape regardless of the actual prices the bookies are offering, so I agree that the betfair market is definitely the truest.  Unless…. someone has other motives ;)

    It’s worth keeping an eye on though.  I’m not one to wade in anyway.. I will watch for quite a while first, horses have burnt me too many times which is why I rarely play them anymore.

    Slippy :)  I was gonna write 1000s, but I didn’t want to hype it too much :)  I actually had a week where I made 100 every day….  but that was snooker.. and there isnt any snooker at the moment! :biggrin: + my bank is still new and not big enough to make that much :)

    Maybe there is a way for us to keep a track of amounts placed / unusual amounts placed and keep each other informed of our suspicions.  A small speculative post or a couple of messages to some buddies on the board and we can track how well our hunches turn out.  It could well be used as something of a guide…   (just throwing ideas around :) the golf isn’t interesting me so much since Ollie got knocked out!)

    #98147
    TheMaster
    Member
    • Total Posts 31

    according to c4 platinum had 40k matched i dont think this is out of the ordinary, so if you was going to do any tracking you woyld have to have guidelines as what constituted out of the ordinary, although the overnight instance seems strange, platinum duke price was forecast 11/8 in the racing post, so 6/4 seems stingy by betyfair standards.

    #98148
    larry layer
    Member
    • Total Posts 84

    I may be wrong in saying this, but have any other layers noticed that the markets have been getting a little tighter recently? in that the prices people are offering aren’t as good as they were.  I’ve seen a few instances where the price that was trading was the same or even slightly below that of the normal bookie.  I’ve also seen a lot of prices on betfair during the morning which are completely different to the RP predicted SPs.. sometimes quite a bit shorter, which always did appear stingy to me too.  

    I think the overnight trading maybe a good place to start looking for unusual occurances.  Perhaps with a few more people looking into it we could spot these things happening more often….* if * they are happening a lot…  

    #98149
    TheMaster
    Member
    • Total Posts 31

    got to agree with the points you make, have seen plenty of instances where there is no difference between the prices of betfair and track prices, as for the RP prices being different I put it down to the fact that they are compiled  probally 18 hours before, so it is reasonable to expect differences in the morning,<br>Also some smaller bookmakers actually lay racing post prices where there are no other early prices, so another possibly is that sometimes the RP may print an estimated sp which, shall we say, they dont really think it will be.<br> A good e.g of this is last weeks bumper winner Rhinestone Cowboy, the world and his dog knew about this one 2 or 3 days before, but the RP still predicted an Sp of 6/1

    #98150
    TheMaster
    Member
    • Total Posts 31

    punter c4, 40k is not out of the ordinary for a race at Lingfield, betfair average 1.5 million a day around 80000 a race. I myself laid 2.4 for 600 so there is 1200 that wasnt " skullduggwery" as you say.<br>

    #98151
    larry layer
    Member
    • Total Posts 84

    Punter, you definitely have wetted my apetite.  I for one will be looking out for this from now on, and I can only see this increasing in frequency as the exchange becomes more and more popular.

    Also, the idea that you can buy a horse and simply lay it off is so simple its ridiculous!  Perhaps the forum horse could act as a license for money printing…. am I the only one that thought of that ?! :biggrin:  Unfortunately I have no knowledge about owning horses.

    The more I think about this the more I’m convinced this is going to become more common and easier to spot.  Do you think there is a risk the owner may just be hedging money though, in case it doesnt win ?  

    #98152
    larry layer
    Member
    • Total Posts 84

    40k may not be out of the ordinary, but an extreme percentage of money layed at any price requested all on one horse is very uncommon.

    #98153
    TheMaster
    Member
    • Total Posts 31

    larry we dont need to lay the forum horse, if DL runs it in a 2 runner race we can bet THE OTHER HORSE. Or even if there weere 4 or five runners we could bet ALL THE OTHER HORSES, wouldnt this be better than laying?

    #98154
    larry layer
    Member
    • Total Posts 84

    Master, it is the same thing  :biggrin:   Actually, correct me if I’m wrong, but in a two horse race especially it would be much better to lay than to back the other horse due to the over round in the odds.  On betfair it is impossible to back all horses in the race and win, thus its better to use the over round to your advantage.

    eg two horse race.

    Horse A  =  4/5<br>Horse B = Evens  

    A lay of horse A will give you odds of 5/4 (instead of Evens) on Horse B winning.  A lay of Horse B will give you odds of Evens (instead of 4/5) on Horse A winning.

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