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If Johannesburg had gone as fast as the others early on i think he would have struggled to win.
Obviously there is no way we can say for sure what could’ve happened.
I’m not doubting the horses ability to stay a mile or that he couldn’t go the pace – what i’m saying is that the others went too fast and that Kinane took full advantage of this in settling the horse in behind them.
Aidan – sitting a couple of lengths of the face was a hundred times better than going hell for leather with three other horses.
Johannesburg has done all he can in winning every race he’s been in.
That Breeders’ Cup Juvenile was suspect though. The early pace was crazy with three going mental and it was set up for any of the rest – Kinane rode a very good race and Johannesburg was the best in coming through and quickening well.
He’s a good horse and he’s improving but i rate his form as a little suspect.
Millenary was also beaten by Mr Combustible (a pretty average 3yo). The St Leger this year was not good – it was very poor. The winner is decent but the second is no way group one class, the third isn’t either.
Those others you mentioned, yes they do show the St Leger still has some class. Maybe its just that people don’t hold it in the same regard as 5/10/20/30 years ago? That’s the impression i got over the last couple of years.
I would LOVE a horse that won the 2000 Guineas, Derby, Eclipse, St Leger and Ascot Gold Cup. Now that would have to be known as one special horse.
That 33/1 happened to touch 100/1 with Hills Esc ;)
Sirspread, i think the example you ahve used it unlikely – a 4/1 shot going 1/3 because Dettori has ridden the first 7 winners. A similar thing happened with Fujiyama Quest but how often does a jockey ride the first 6 (or even 7) winners? Also, Esc actually said that he puts his money on early doors so could do nothing if Dettori rode the first 7 winners as his bet would be placed.
Your other question though, i’m interested to know everyone’s answer – what is YOUR cut off price?
One more thing – why do you have to make your own book to achieve long-term profits?
People have different ways of making money from betting. I want to know what’s wrong with studying the old form book and why we should all be creating book’s.
Cheers, Rob.
True Sal. I’ve never rated the St Leger but i’ve only been interested in racing for a while – I understand that it was once a top class race with brilliant horses taking part – Nijinsky for example.
Now though the St Leger doesn’t seem much of an event – seems sad considering the obvious tradition there is there.
Just to step in here – if the RP forecast is ever THAT FAR wrong then the person that did that particular forecast should be fired (upon with a big gun)
Yep, there are bad horses in bad races in all spheres and the all-weather is a good example.
There are some good horses that race on sand but a more all-weather tracks and group races are needed. I happen to like the idea of racing on sand/dirt a lot and there are plenty of horses that love it too.
About claiming races – over here are claiming races are silly. Owners/trainers enter their horses for X amount of money and weights are allotted accordingly blah blah blah.
In America their levels of claiming races are what’s needed over here. £5000 claimers (where any horse can be claimed for 5 grand) would be the low-level and, say, £20,000 would be a high level.
Now methinks that the problem is that we are all too gentlemanly (or womanly) to claim each others horses…well, that’s going to have to be over come.
I think Alan Potts said in the Inside Track that there was a horse fancied for the Lincoln or Hunt Cup or somehthing that was in a claimer. No one claimed it because they wouldn’t dare and it won whichever big race it was in.
I’ll have to check that but i believe that’s what he said.
There must be 100’s and 100’s of horses that have the "scope" to improve (or so we are told). Some do, some don’t.
Hawk Wing seems pretty good and i’m sure we’ll hear stories about him over the Winter which will see his price for the Guineas fluctuate a half point.
Thank you for that info on Jonjo’s horses James.
Interesting that he said before Quazar’s Cheltenham win that he wasn’t sure the horse was fit because it had banged a knee and basically put people off – it won of course!
Interesting seeing all this stuff trainers get up too – you could make some good profits with this kind of info.
I will keep a look out for stuff like this to go on this thread. Thanks again, Rob.
:cheesy: meeeeee :biggrin:
Definately want to see how this making a book business works in practice – i’m willing to try it out if it helps make loads of cash :biggrin:
Esc – all-weather racing is not just bad horses running in bad races.
There are some decent horses too but generally the racing is average. You must know that there are bad races on turf too. There are loads of them but, as there are more tracks, the poorer races are spread around – there are only three tracks on the all-weather so the poorer races can’t be spread about between lots of gaff tracks.
I think if you watch some of the better all-weather racing you’ll see it isn’t jsut bad horses – for example, Border Arrow was well beaten in a listed race at Lingfield because 1) he couldn’t handle the surface and 2) he didn’t handle the track. That’s a group performer being beaten by sand horses.
Some sand horses are very useful but just dislike turf – that doesn’t make them bad horses.
But yep, there is average racing on sand its just i enjoy it as i like the concept.
Would you feel different to the way you do now if there was group racing on sand?
I don’t see why you need to make a book to find a price you consider value.
Can you not just look at a race, see that there’s a horse that, on form, is too bigger price and then back it?
I think it is possible to go through life as a punter without making a single book on a race.
DL – surely if you bet e/w, bet those 6/4 shots and bet those 16/1 shots you’ll have fewer losing runs.
Why? because you are more varied in your price range instead of backing soley short priced or big priced horses.
Each-way betting can be very good value as Escorial proved in his example of the novice hurdle race.
Raz, your Michael Johnson example has shown that it can be value to back e/w or at odds-on. That was a good example of both being decent value at different times.
To all of you now: Is value not just somebody’s opinion?
Me and my dad only bet for fun (although, when i’m old enough i’ll bet for fun AND a nice profit).
Surely if you backed horses and won (either win bets or each way) you’ll be in a profit.
If you think a horse should be 8/1 and its 4/1 – so what? If it wins you have a smaller profit than you’d think ideal but you’d have a profit. If your not concerned about prices and back the horses you think will win you’ll make a profit in the long run (if you’re good at picking winners of course!)
Almost everyone can bag a 6/4 winner and some can get 16/1 winners – get on all your winners (be them 6/4 or 16/1) and in the long run, you’ll be in profit.
How about each-way betting? Is this value? I have to say a resounding YES to this – but what do you lot think?
Just one more thing – welcome to the forum all you recent sign ups! Glad your enjoying it :)
GOOD STUFF JAMES! We think alike mate – On The Trail and Howards Heroine were my two winners today, both at 4/1 although i can say i didn’t fancy them 100%.
However, On The Trail’s forecast was 7/1 in my paper. It went off at 4/1. If i was very sure it’d win i’d back it at 4/1 regardless of the forecast price because i’d still be getting a winner.
Howards Heroine was forecast 5/1 in my paper and went off 4/1 – again, i’d back it at 4’s if i was very sure it’d win.
