- This topic has 175 replies, 26 voices, and was last updated 24 years, 2 months ago by
.
- Posts
Chapter 3 of my forthcoming book "The Secrets of a Successful Punter" is titled "Ignore the Price a winners a winner".
Other chapters are:
Each Way Betting (You get paid if its placed !).
Keeping records is for Losers. (You know you are a winner)<br>The Round Robin. (The most fun you can have with a fat bird).
Ladbrokes seem keen to promote it.
Exellent thread this is, its certainly changed my opinion on value betting.
In the past (up until yesterday) i would normally be saying what Escorial is saying right now, if you find a winner then back it regardless of its price. That is what i have been doing but i can now see the light thanks to this thread. I had never really taken the time to figure out how people determine what value is, but its all been said and done right here for me on this thread, and now i’ve read it, i’m asking myself how i had not figured this out before.
When a bookmaker is working out his book for a race he will most definate’ly use the form to get his prices, but once the betting starts for that race form will go out the window but your choosen horse will still have the same chance you have given it regardless of what the bookmaker does with its price. This has to give the value backer a big edge over the bookmaker.
What i’m not so sure about is how you figure out a horses chance in a race by giving each runner a percentage, how do you come to that percentage? Lets say you have horse A in race 1 and horse B in race 2 and you read the form and give them both exactly the same chance, when you work out your book and turn their chances into percentages will they both have the same percentage? I cant see how this is possible unless both races were cardboard cut outs of each other, i’d appreciate if someone could take the time to explain this. ÂÂÂ
Do you work to a specific value point, ex, must your selection be 2pts, 3pts or say 4pts bigger than what you determine its chances to be.
How long does it take you to figure out your book on a race, obviously this fluctuate’s for each race so in other words does this make for alot more work.
<br>I’ve been out the game for around 6 months now only having the occasional small bet, if the money is not in the bank then its best to stay away until it returns. Anyway, when i am active’ly involved and studying the form on a daily basis my bets are quite selective anyway, so i’m not so sure working towards getting value would help me, i’m not sure how often these value selections appear. If only 1 in 6 of my normal bets turned out to be what i determined value after making my book that would result in me betting to 6 times my normal stake and not having very many bets. I’m not sure how i’d take to that but i’m definate’ly interested in giving this a go, it does make sense.
Regards<br>ALI
I’ll try Ali!
First of all each horse race has to be treated as such and therefor when pricing up a race to your system/critea’s you have to take all the horses into account.
A simple example is the 2.50 at Doncater today.
Say your system is very simple (the way you come to your selection) for example = to use Post Mark in the RP as your ratings and you additionally award 5pts per course winner and 7pts per distance winner.
The race then becomes rated by you to your system as follows:
Zabadi (pm133) (dist7) = 140<br>Virtous Circle (pm134) = 134<br>Dream of Numari (139) = 139<br>Passereau (pm132) = 132
These figures are clearly too close together and too high to produce an acurate book so we should take 100 off each competitor to show market differences.
As the top rated horse is 40 (after 100 deducted) this becomes the figure you divide all ratings by as the top rated will return a figure of 1 then.
You now have these figures now assigned:
Zabadi = 1<br>Virtous Circle = 0.85<br>Dream of Numari = 0.975<br>Passereau = 0.8
Now add all these up and lets call it A which equals 3.625
Still with me or have you dropped off yet? :bore:
So now all you do is calculate the percent for each horse which is 100 [divided by] A [times] chance:
Zabadi 100 / A X 1 = 27.6% (5/2)<br>Virtous Circle 100 / A X 0.85 = 23.4% (100/30)<br>Dream of Numari 100 / A X 0.975 = 26.9% (11-4)<br>Passereau 100 / A X 0.8 = 22% (7-2)
Now if you look at the RP forcast betting you will see:<br>5/2 Dream of Numari, 11/4 Paaereau, Zabadi, 3-1 Virtous Circle.
As you can see it’s not a million miles away from the actual betting and if this were your system nothing would jump out at you as value.
Hope you’re still awake and I hope this helped!<br>
Thanks Daylight, that definate’ly helps, the picture is getting clearer, i think?
In order to make a book then i guess you have to be working with figures. How do you calculate a horses bare form, how do you calculate a percentage for something that you think is going to happen, something that is going to help or is going to hinder the horses chance, something that there is nothing to back it up with, only your interpretation, for example a horse being stepped up in trip, stepped up in class, new jockey on board, running for new stable, running on new ground, running at new track, first time over fences, dropped back over hurdles, time between last race, comming back from injury etc etc. Does it then become guess work, are you then forced to guess?
I’m just trying to get a clear picture on this, any feedback is appreciated!!!
(Edited by ALI at 3:18 pm on Jan. 14, 2002)
Ali,
The idea of creating a book is too highlight value using your system in comparison to that of the bookmakers, as the bookmakers allow for most things you mentioned. I personally am not looking to create a book identical to that of the bookmaker as that would be pointless as a professional (odds compiler) has spent more time then I ever can so I am looking to get a good idea of what price my selection should be to be classed as value/over-priced.
A horse running in the 4:30 is a perfect example for my backing.<br>His my only bet today my independent bookmaker offered 7/1 I forecast him being shorter. <br>Rickie Brisland sole ride, good draw.
led, ridden and headed 1f out, one pace
Over 7f, today drops in back to a more suitable 6f and drops in class.
C&D winner and this is the sort of selection I am looking for, will go into more detail later. <br>Cheers<br>James
<br>
GOOD STUFF JAMES! We think alike mate – On The Trail and Howards Heroine were my two winners today, both at 4/1 although i can say i didn’t fancy them 100%.
However, On The Trail’s forecast was 7/1 in my paper. It went off at 4/1. If i was very sure it’d win i’d back it at 4/1 regardless of the forecast price because i’d still be getting a winner.
Howards Heroine was forecast 5/1 in my paper and went off 4/1 – again, i’d back it at 4’s if i was very sure it’d win.
After the event … always easier but certain I would not have had a shilling on this horse at 3/1. Go back two runs this very same horse was second favourite at 5-2 for a 0-85 because his previous run to this he won a seller. 5-2 without a shadow of a doubt did not represent value in my opinon. David Chapman is very shrewd yard and they certainly do not want to short a price winners. From my knowledge the stable like hitting their horses e/w and at big prices. From my own information from the yards I have a few hairs in horses this is quite common so from only a few years back now I will not take under 4-1.<br>
Escorial, me again.
I still think the prices the bookies are offering should be of interest to you.
As you say, you think your horse is the ‘favourite’. Surely you want more money on the horse the more you think the bookies are being generous.
If I was in your shoes and in two pretty much identical races one of my ‘maximums’ was at 7/2 and the other one was 7/1, I’d want to put much more on the 7/1 shot. (In fact, if I had priced both horses up at 2/1 I’d be putting 14 points on at 7/2 and 24 points on at 7/1.) It seems to me you could be even more successful than you obviously are.
Also, you seem to be saying ‘value’ punters are making a mistake in not backing horses they think will win, if they aren’t value. The thing is I don’t ever really think about races in that way. I just price up the race and then look at the bookies’ prices to see if they’re way out of line to me. I rarely have an opinion that says ‘this horse is the one’. So, for me, the game is more a mathematical puzzle than a picking horses puzzle.
<br>
Tooting, your the first person i have ever heard say that they do not look for a winner in a race……….. that is what you just said is’nt it?
You’ll back anything that represents your criteria of value, regardless of form obviously as you do not look at a race from this angle, sounds like a quick way to the poor house to me.
How anyone can back winners and make profit without using the form as a guide is beyond me?????
Ali, I do look at form when assessing each horse’s chances.
I then price them up as best I can, and then I compare my book to the bookies.
And if I see ‘value’ (yes, a Holy Grail I know), then I bet accordingly. That does mean I often back horses that I don’t have a very strong opinion of.
Let me give you an example from Saturday.
(My prices first, then bookies’ prices)
Ascot 2:20<br>Orsuno 5/1 3/1<br>benbyas 5/1 3/1<br>regal exit 5/1 4/1<br>Rooster Booster 10/1 7/1<br>Got One Too 6/1 10/1<br>Lisaan 8/1 10/1<br>Moving on Up 8/1 14/1<br>Plus 3 runners making up ‘The field’ – horses I believe really won’t win in today’s conditions. I gave them 15% of the book.<br> <br>Basically my take on the race was that the front three were priced up far too short. Rooster Booster is an habitual loser, but the next three in the betting all seemed to be too long, and so were possible ‘value’ bets.
I ended up doing Moving on Up to win, and combination forecasts on the three of them.
Obviously I chose this race as it was a nice winner with a 121/1 forecast pay-out on Got One Too and Lisaan.<br>My point is, I had no strong feelings about the merits of any of these horses – if you’d asked me the likeliest winner I would probably have said Benbyas.
I hope that explains what I mean a bit better.<br>
The only way to make money in the long run is to bet at an offered price greater than the real odds of the event occuring ie getting value. However in the real world maybe it is easier to pick winners than detect which horses are value ???? At least I am sure this is true for some people.
Smithy came up with the classic description of value then ruined it with an awful example 2-1 Fujiyama Crest was value 1-2 would have been value the horse won and that is that those people who backed it who ‘ must have been mad’ went home with cash spilling from their pockets.
The coin toss is an interesting example the odds are evs tails ev heads we all know that. Imagine then this scenario the bookie offers 4-5 heads 11-10 tails you of course back tails he tosses it is heads he goes again again heads and again and again he changes his prices 4-6 heads 5-4 tails he tosses heads again and again and again he reprices 4-7 heads 6-4 tails. Punters are lumping on tails right left and centre. What do you back ??
Incidentally blue square recently offered 11-10 the toss of a coin in the recent England tour of India !!
I am interested in long term profits rather than one horse winning or losing. <br>If I miss a winner because of the price, the question I must ask myself will the win cover defeats on losers which have not met the price criteria. <br>I am in search for big price selections which should be approx around that price range. Long Term I will not make a profit from backing below the price ranges I set. <br>Before the time in my life when I would be at Perry Barr in the morning, football match in the afternoon then onto Wolverhampton evening meeting it dawned on me it was no longer profitable backing in every race. <br>I am now backing one horse at the most each day so why take below what I feel is value.
"The scenario I want you to imagine is of three people walking into a room where different bets are on offer.<br>The first person sees a table where you can bet on the spin of a coin. The odds on offer are 10/11 for a correct choice.<br>He feels lucky and bets on heads, which comes up. So he has another bet, and this also wins. "I’m feeling lucky", he says, "I’m going to stay at this table all night".<br>The second person sees a table where you can bet on the correct number thrown with a dice. The odds on offer are 11/2.<br>He has a bet on ‘3’, which loses, then on ‘5’, which loses. But he’s not deterred; "I’m staying on this table", he says, "see you later".<br>The third person sees a table where you can bet on predicting a playing card randomly chosen from a pack. The odds on offer are 66/1.<br>He likes the prospect of a big win, so he has a go. In fact he has 10 goes, and none are correct. Luckily, he has brought plenty of cash with him, so he says "I’m staying here for the night".<br>The three agree to meet up again in 8 hours time, when they will compare how each has done.<br>Eight hours passed, and it was time for the three to go home.<br>The coin man was not happy: "I seemed to be winning regularly", he said, "I didn’t have any long losing runs, but I’m out of pocket!"<br>In fact he’d had 1,000 bets, and 500 of them had been correct. He’d been betting at £20 a time, as he knew he wouldn’t have long losing runs. So over the night he’d staked £20,000, and from his 500 winners paying £38.18 a time, he’d received a total of £19,090. He had lost £910 when he seemed to be doing so well. People had been remarking at how many winners he was having, but that didn’t matter to him now. He certainly wouldn’t play that game again.<br>The second arrived, with a smile on his face; "I started slowly", he said, "and my strike rate was not good all night – I had many losing runs well into double figures. I didn’t feel as if I was winning, but now that I’ve counted up I realise that I’ve done well."<br>In fact, he too had placed 1,000 bets over the night at £20 each. He had picked 166 winners and 834 losers. At his quoted odds of 11/2, each winner had paid him £130 – a total return of £21,580. He had won £1,580 on the night and was happy.<br>The third returned laughing; "I can’t believe it", he said, "I chose those cards terribly – I had massive losing runs which I thought would never end. In fact I had 1,000 bets at £20 each and only won 19 of them – good job my bank was big enough for the evening!" But at 66/1, the 19 winners had returned a total of £25,460, making him £5,460 – enough for the cruise he’d been planning.<br>Simple enough, and we can see why the coin man was attracted by the prospect of regular winners – it made him feel like he was doing well. The dice man had a strike rate of 16.67%, which was more than enough, given that he was offered the value odds of 11/2 each time. The odds were only quoted half a point too high, but that was enough for him and he took advantage. The card man was fortunate to have a big bank behind him – his losing runs were massive, only 19 winners from 1,000 at a strike rate of 1.9%. But the 66/1 he was given was far too high, and he made a lot of money.<br>If these people were to return every night for a year, betting on the same games and with the same stakes, the coin man would lose £332,150, the dice man would win £576,700 and the card man would win £1,992,900.<br>They were all winning as often as they were entitled to do – nobody was luckier or unluckier than the others. It all came down to the value their bets offered.<br>In that example, the value was easy to see. Mathematically, it could be determined exactly. But how do we know what value is in horse-racing? How do we know we won’t end up like the coin man?<br>The answer is that we need to determine, first of all, what the actual odds are of our horse winning. We can’t do this exactly, of course, but we can get fairly close.<br>Say for example the race we are studying has 10 runners, and we have decided that 4 of them have no chance whatsoever. We can confidently cross those 4 through, but we must be absolutely sure they can’t win. That leaves 6 runners, and we may decide that 3 of those can’t be dismissed completely even though we don’t think they can win. Maybe they have half a chance. Fine, that’s 3 runners with half a chance each, and the other 3 are the serious contenders (of which one is obviously our selection).<br>So our selection has 1 chance in 4.5 (3 serious plus 3 half chances). Its actual odds, as far as we can see are 7/2.<br>If we can get better than 7/2 for our selection we bet. The bigger the price above 7/2, the more we stake. It makes sense – if the dice man went back the following night he would stake much higher at that price. If our horse, however, is quoted at less than 7/2 we cannot bet – not ever.<br>It may well win, but if we continually take chances like that we will come unstuck eventually. If the odds are 3/1 we have to leave it alone and come back another day.<br>Again, that’s a simple example, and I’m sure most punters think along those lines. To get more of an exact figure we need to break our fractions down further – down to percentage chances.<br>If we say that the total chances of all the runners in a race is 100%, we need to then determine how much of that 100% is made up of our horse’s chance. In the above example the 100% was split between 6 runners that had either a chance or half a chance. There were a total of 4.5 chances, each one 22.22% of the overall 100%.<br>A 22.22% chance is equal to 7/2, so if we are right in our judgement (and we must stick to our judgement, as that is the whole point of betting), anything better than 7/2 offers value.<br>A friend of mine has the same approach, although he tackles it slightly differently. He allocates 100 points to a race (each point is a 1% chance). From those 100 points, he allocates to each horse a number, which he thinks represents it’s chance of winning. The important thing here is that all the points must come back to 100 when added at the end.<br>He may analyse a race like this: His selection 27pts, horse ‘B’ 20pts, horses ‘C’, ‘D’, ‘E’, and ‘F’ 12pts each, and horse ‘G’ 5pts.<br>He has given his selection a 27% chance, which equals just over 11/4. So if my friend can get 11/4, or preferably 3/1 for his bet, he will be on. If not, he won’t.<br>To convert the points out of 100 you have awarded to each horse into odds, do the following:<br>Say you gave 28pts : divide 100 by 28 = 3.57, then deduct 1 = 2.57.<br>Those are the odds to one – 2.57/1. Given that 2.5/1 is the same as 5/2, you would need better than 5/2 for a horse to which you had awarded 28pts.<br>Please make sure you don’t totally discount a horse and give it 0pts unless you are sure that it can’t win. Make sure all your points figures total 100 exactly. You will have to change them many times before they do – and don’t bother if the points awarded are strange numbers, like 27 or 41. it doesn’t matter as long as you work out the true odds correctly afterwards.<br>You will find that you suddenly spend less time actually picking a winner, and more time picking a horse that is likely to run at a value price".
Quite a famous strategy, wo what I am saying why should I back a horse which in my view is 7/1 at odds of 4/1 ? Long term I will not make a profit I have already tried this and proved it to myself. I spent one year backing every horse I feel should win , spending weeks studying trainers and their ways , looking at jockeys merits etc.
Won or lost long term this would not remain profitable of my way of punting
Can’t believe the amount of input on this thread since I last looked at the site last night. There are obviously some very good racing brains on the forum.
In reply to Escorial who earlier asked how someone can be happy to miss a winner just because they believed the price to be too short ……..
Last night as an example I stated that I thought Woodlyon had an excellent chance of winning the 2:00 @ Wolverhampton, but due to a likely price of 4/5 I decided not to go racing. Well the horse won and at even money too so I guess I should be feeling pretty stupid at missing a winner………well I don’t !!!<br>I must admit that a small part of me is annoyed that I missed a winner, but in the main I am happy that the selection won nicely as it backs up my selection methods and the accuracy of my self-generated speed figures (which have been difficult to get right recently due to the awful track management at the fibresand tracks). I am sure that I won’t have to wait that long until the next time I put a decent bet down.
Ali ….. hi there !!!<br>As I stated earlier there is more than one way to skin a cat, and tooting’s method of in effect playing his book against the ‘live’ prices is a perfectly reasonable way to play the game. ‘Pro-punter’ Dave Nevison is a prime example of making this method work, although I must admit that sometimes I would personally consider him to be pretty brave to back 33/1 shots which he believes should be 16/1. This is not for me, as although I wil ONLY bet when I consider that I have found a ‘value’ bet, personally I do not have the constitution to put up with the long losing runs which are an enevitable consequence of using such a strategy.
James321 ….. Thanks for the tip re: David Chapman not necessarily liking his horses to win when they are at skinny prices. I have often suspected this to be true of him, and others (Norma Macauley springs to mind), but it is great to have comment on this from someone who is conncected with the stable.
Also as I’m new around here I’d just like to say hello to Daylight, Ali, Razeen, Keith the teeth, ssimps and smithy, all of whom I am yet to encounter.
Keep up the good work everyone !!   :dance:
Good to have you on the forum Nick.
<br>Tooting, if your method is working for you then thats all that matters at the end of the day, good luck to you. Personally, i could not back any horse in any race unless i thought it was the winner, regardless of price. And i certainly could not back horse B against horse A if i thought horse A was the winner, i cant even entertain that thought. But if its working for you then thats all that matters.
Regards<br>ALI
Me and my dad only bet for fun (although, when i’m old enough i’ll bet for fun AND a nice profit).
Surely if you backed horses and won (either win bets or each way) you’ll be in a profit.
If you think a horse should be 8/1 and its 4/1 – so what? If it wins you have a smaller profit than you’d think ideal but you’d have a profit. If your not concerned about prices and back the horses you think will win you’ll make a profit in the long run (if you’re good at picking winners of course!)
Almost everyone can bag a 6/4 winner and some can get 16/1 winners – get on all your winners (be them 6/4 or 16/1) and in the long run, you’ll be in profit.
How about each-way betting? Is this value? I have to say a resounding YES to this – but what do you lot think?
Just one more thing – welcome to the forum all you recent sign ups! Glad your enjoying it :)
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.