January 12, 2002 at 19:53 #4140bosspunterMember
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Hi I am not a novice at this job but from things I read Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â maybe I should know how to make a book on a race,but I don,t so could somebody tell me how you do it.<br> Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â THANKS, Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â bossJanuary 13, 2002 at 01:20 #97408
I am assuming that you wish to make a 100% book, hopefully I can be of some assistance !!
Let’s assume a three horse race (for simplicity) with the following fictional runners :
Horse A : Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â THE Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â JOLLY<br>Horse B : Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â SOME Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â CHANCE<br>Horse C : Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â NOT Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â REALLY
Firstly I would study the race in detail using speed figures, pace figures, trainer profiles, draw percentages, performance patterns, distance and going requirements, ‘bounce’ possibilities etc. etc…….
Once the form study is done I decide which horse should be the favourite and assign it a score of 1.<br>In this case let’s say that THE JOLLY should be favourite and therefore has a score of 1.
I then compare each of the other horses in turn to the favourite and decide how much chance they have relative to that of the favourite. Let’s say that I think SOME CHANCE has two thirds of the chance of the favourite. I would then give SOME CHANCE Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â a score of 0.67 (decimal representation of two-thirds). Let us also assume that NOT Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â REALLY has a fifth of the chance of the favourite and give it a score of 0.2
The next step is to list the horses along with their scores and add these together to find the ‘Total Score’
THE Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â JOLLY Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â 1<br>SOME Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â CHANCE Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â 0.67<br>NOT Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â REALLY Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â 0.2 Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Total Score = 1.87
Hope you are still with me as we are nearly there !!
The next step is to find the %age chance of each horse.<br>This is calculated as folllows :<br> Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â %age chance = (horse’s score/total score)*100<br>So For THE Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â JOLLY this is (1/1.87)*100 = 53.48%<br>For SOME Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â CHANCE this is (0.67/1.87)*100) = 35.82%<br>For NOT Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â REALLY this is (0.2/1.87)*100 = 10.70%
The final step (if deemed necessary) is to convert these percentages into prices, ready for comparison with those on offer by our friendly bookmakers !!!<br>In this race the rough prices would be<br>THE Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â JOLLY @ between 5/6 & 10/11<br>SOME Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â CHANCE @ roughly 7/4<br>NOT Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â REALLY @ roughly 17/2
This is by no means a definitive method of pricing up a race…..but it works for me.
Hope I have been some help !!<br>January 13, 2002 at 15:33 #97410paul101Member
- Total Posts 27
Hi there Boss, I to would like to know how to make a book, I could be wrong but I think Escorial got the wrong end of the stick, if like me you would like to make a book for a laying purpose , could anyone explane how Nicks 3horse race could be priced up for a bookies profit, and put it on the board, how much would the bookie have to lay each horse to be in a non lose situation?January 13, 2002 at 16:20 #97411
I fully welcome your comments, but I must confess that I am not interested in placing many bets at all ….. I will only bet when I have a horse which I consider has a great chance of winning AND is available at a value price !!!
This means I do not have many bets, but I DO make a profit.
I only bet on-course at the a/w meetings and I also only bet when I have seen my horse in the paddock !!
EVERY time I have a bet the bookies shorten their prices on the horse and this includes William Hill on the rails !!
Hope I do not sound too arrogant (it’s just not British is it) but this is how I play the game and it works for me.
All the best mate !!
NickJanuary 13, 2002 at 17:20 #97412JAMES321Member
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ODDS ON PRICE ODDS AGAINST<br>50% Evens 50%<br>52.38% 11/10 47.62%<br>54.55% 6-5 45.45%<br>55.56% 5-4 44.44%<br>57.89% 11-8 42.11% <br>60.00% 6-4 40.00% <br>61.90% 13-8 38.10%<br>63.64% 7-4 36.36%<br>65.22% 15-8 34.78%<br>66.67% 2-1 33.33%<br>68.00% 85-40 32.00%<br>69.23% 9-4 30.77%<br>71.43% 5-2 28.57%<br>73.33% 11-4 26.67%<br>75.00% 3-1 25.00%<br>76.92% 10-3 23.08%<br>77.78% 7-2 22.22%<br>80.00% 4-1 20.00%
ETC. <br>I hope this makes sense.
Professional gamblers such as SLH will forecast a market and when a horse is over his forecast price he will back it. Simple as that. <br>Good Luck<br>James<br>January 13, 2002 at 17:26 #97413
Couldn’t agree more James
I’m new around here but it seems that you know the time of day. I noticed you did very well with your maximum punts last year and I’m sure your table of odds/percentages will be very helpful for anyone starting to dabble with pricing up races themselves.
Keep up the good work !!
Nick Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â :cool:January 13, 2002 at 21:03 #97415
Full credit to you Escorial, not only for 3 out of 7 max bets including a 14/1 shot but for obviously betting with a selective methodology. I appreciate your point of view, but I think we’ll probably have to agree to disagree. I think in the end everyone is different and there is definitely more than one way to skin a cat ….. or bet profitably on horses.
I am certainly not a very high stakes punter (yet) but I put enough on to make it all worthwile. As I am a firm believer in only betting after evaluating the horses in the paddock this means that I must take into account the expense involved in attending the races. The time involved is also a factor as if I choose to travel I will obviously have less time on my hands to study the next days card. Basically as I said I will only bet when I think a horse is at a value price AND has a great chance of winning.
As an example, at Wolverhampton tommorow I would personally take the view that Woodlyon has an excellent chance of winning the 7f maiden at 2:00. However because of the likely s.p. of 4/5 I will not be going racing.
I’ll try to put up some good bets on the maximum punts section but these aren’t likely to come along too often.
All the best
NickJanuary 13, 2002 at 21:25 #97416michaelMember
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To Escorial<br>I think you have got the wrong end of the stick. The thread is about how to make a book not how you find your winners. When bookmakers price up a race they do the same for a Seller at Plumpton as they do with the Gold Cup at Cheltenham. They bet to figures only and not the form. <br>In a perfect world the idea when making a book is to get every runner taking out the same amount of money. So if you are pricing up a race to 120% and every runner takes out the same amount of money it does not matter what wins the bookmaker will win Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â£20 in every Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â£100 he takes. Here is an example of what I am going on about. Say a race has 6 runners and they bet as follows.<br>3/1 (lay Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â£75/Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â£25) Take out Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â£100<br>3/1 (lay Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â£75/Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â£25) Take out Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â£100<br>4/1 (lay Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â£80/Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â£20) Take out Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â£100<br>9/2 (lay Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â£81/Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â£18) Take out Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â£99<br>5/1 (lay Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â£80/Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â£16) Take out Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â£96<br>5/1 (lay Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â£80/Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â£16) Take out Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â£96<br>So if you add up all the money that has been staked that will come to Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â£120. As you can see the most you will have to pay out is Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â£100.<br>So basically it is all about percentages and nothing to do with the form of any horse.<br>I do know many bookmakers that would not know the front of a horse to the back of a horse. But these people are whiz kids when it comes to figures and percentages.January 13, 2002 at 21:52 #97417JAMES321Member
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Michael your right on all counts as some major bookmakers employ form students Barry Dennis included.<br>Overround on the percentage is what they are making out of every Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â£100.January 13, 2002 at 23:02 #97419wandererMember
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Great Postings Everyone<br>As a beginner, this info is fascinating stuff.A slight deviation, how do you study form?. I really need the basics, what do you look for ,where do you look for it ,how do you know when you’ve found it,<br>Perhaps there should be a beginners section where all these answers could be found instead of bothering ‘The Knowledgable Ones'<br>Just a thought, ( I tend to get them on a sunday night , after a few drams )<br>ThanksJanuary 13, 2002 at 23:34 #97420michaelMember
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Yes I agree Escorial the prices do have to start from somewhere and that is down to form but a horse that goes from 6/4 to 11/4 has the same form at 6/4 as it has at 11/4. <br>I know of a bookmaker who used to bet at Walthamstow greyhound stadium that used to make his prices from the Forecast Toe board when the total reached around 11,000 units. This is I am assured by some people a very good guide.January 14, 2002 at 00:30 #97421
Hi Michael, glad you’ve joined in the discussion.
You’re absolutley spot on regarding the fact that most on-course bookmakers are basically attempting to balance their books and do not really care about the form as long as they believe their tissue prices are correct. With the over-round obviously in their favour this is a logical way for them to operate.
There is however a minority of bookmakers who are in effect ‘gambling’, not necessarily in every race, but when they believe they have important information which is not available to the majority. This is especially true of the a/w tracks where the formbook will not always find the winners !!
Sometimes bookmakers are ‘forced’ into gambling rather than acting as accountants, especially when there is a low attendance at a meeting and they cannot hope to balance their books. Under these circumstances they will often be lucky to lay half of the horses in a race to significant money. Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â :spin:
NickJanuary 14, 2002 at 08:33 #97422DaylightMember
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My way of pricing a book is similar to Mr Hatton’s as I award points on top of the speed figure ratings (flat only) and then the higest rated becomes the figure to divide the others by, so the top rated is always 1 and the rest are lower and then I do exactly the same thereafter execpt I work to a 90% book.
Been here before mate I think? Anyway, I don’t mind adding my two pence worth again.
Odds compilers/tissue price creators have their methods of pricing up a race which generally takes a most of things into account, but when creating a book it should be done using the aspects of critea you think are key to the horses success (your method) as I mainly use stopwatch times, trainer form, going, distance & draw biases which are only a small part of how odds compilers come to their conclusions. This means that when I produce a book 9/10 it is considerably different to the tissue and should I have a selection in the race I think has an outstanding chance I will punt it if it’s 2pts or more over priced to my book, if it isn’t then I will leave it (yes Esc, I will leave it!) and should it win I will strug my shoulders and look for the next one as betting to what I consider not value will not give me the edge long-term.<br>Lets say your average win price is 4/1 and during an average run you have one winner in every 4 punted (same strike rate as price percent) which over 40 bets would leave you dead level assumming your stakes are even. Now lets assume 20 of these bets were ‘not value’ in the selctors book. We now have less bets and less winners but if you got 6/1 on the winners you would be +10pts profit now!<br>It’s all about opinions but I know from personal experiences that these value selections have put me in profit in times when I’m just have an average time of it.<br>The key to success is quite simple really in maths form whether you look for value or not – your strike rate % has to be higher than the odds % you punt too! Sounds simple but thats the bottom line, now all you have to do is implement it which is the hard part!
Wanderer,<br>This forum was set-up to accomidate for novice punters through to proffesionals as everyone has something posative to give and the idea of this place is to help each other beat our common enemy! All contributions are welcome and I’m sure if we can help we will as we are a friendly bunch.January 14, 2002 at 11:18 #97425tootingMember
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Escorial, fascinated by your stance on this.
You bet when you are as certain as you can be that the horse you have chosen will win – your ‘near maximum’s last week for example.
If you actually tried to express that certainty in percentage terms you would almost certainly find you are loking at a ‘value’ bet anyway – if you’re opinion is that strong, the horse will almost certainly be shorter in your book than in the bookies’.
I don’t know what your staking strategy is but I would want to make a book on a race to decide how stuck-in I should be getting. Take your 7/2 bet and your 6/1 bet last week. If you had priced them both up as 2/1 shots say, surely you would want to be staking a lot more on the 6/1 shot than on the 7/2 shot?
Personally I always do a book (or a part book on major contenders plus the field), and use a version of the Kelly Criterion to show me how much ‘value’ I believe I have.
My profits have risen considerably since I adopted this method a few years ago.January 14, 2002 at 11:34 #97427DaylightMember
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Why would I back a horse in a race that I fancy which I feel should be 6/1 and it’s priced up at 2/1? Answer = I wouldn’t, because I feel it’s odds percent are less than its real chance and I know that if I backed these types long term I would lose as EVERYONE has losing runs and you have to have structures in place to be prepared for them and backing non-value horses will make losing runs considerably worse. ‘A winner is a winner’ is a quote I don’t believe in is complete tosh, it’s easy to be wise after an event but if you seek value you have to be prepared to miss winners but just think of all the bad value bets that lost and wait patiently for the next one. I don’t have consistent runs or a high strike rate good enough, but I do know what my capabilities are, which is where most fall as they try and pick things they are not capable off, so I allow for them by backing value. A prime example was during the last few months of the flat season I was putting up my bets in the ‘Betting Tips’ forum once I placed my bets and of course you have to work these out to SP in that forum for fairness. After 100 bets I was +9pts up but upon checking my betting records on the prices I actually took I was +21.5pts up! Therefor the value aspect returned an extra 12.5% on my returns! I think that figure alone shows you how important value is?
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