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jjimps – I appreciate your point about Fujiyama Crest representing value after it had won but this was a horse widely available at double figure prices on the morning of the race. It had not been tipped up in the Racing Press, it’s form chance had not improved throughout that afternoon and come 5.00 or whenever it was, on all known form it was still a 10/1 shot. If you try to ignore what had happened earlier in the afternoon, I cannot comprehend how people could back the horse at 2/1.
I have to agree wholeheartedly with James’ views on not backing a horse if the price is wrong – of course you are going to miss winners and this is annoying but over a period of time it will even itself out. I set myself a price I will back a horse at and for every point or more it is bigger that my expectation I increase my stake. This means that I will have less winners than I could but I am sure I back less losers than I used to by refusing to take what is in my opinion a ‘false’ price.
This is a discussion which could run and run as there is no right or wrong answer and if someone is lucky enough to make a profit without pricing a race up themselves then good luck to them – but as has already been said I am sure that their profits could be increased, either with a different staking plan or more attention to what price a horse really should be.
I’ve been biting my tongue and sitting on my hands on this one during the last few posts but the comment "If you think a horse should be 8/1 and its 4/1 – so what? If it wins you have a smaller profit than you’d think ideal but you’d have a profit." has made me respond!
Rob,<br>If you are prepared to back a selection 4pts under your estimated value price then good luck to you as you are really going to need it backing bad value consistently will lead you to the poor house at 100mph! That is like saying if you thought Istabraq would win this years Champion Hurdle this year you would gladly take 1/2 – No you wouldn’t because it’s just not a good price!
"Almost everyone can bag a 6/4 winner and some can get 16/1 winners – get on all your winners (be them 6/4 or 16/1) and in the long run, you’ll be in profit." If only it were that simple! Are you forgetting losing runs? As they happen to the best, if you only back 2/1 shots lets say, that means you HAVE to get 1 winner in every 3 bets to break even otherwise you lose! It may sound simple to you but you try it!
This whole game is about maths and by backing what you consider value gives you a better return long term and will only increase profits. If things aren’t right (price included) then why play? There will always be other days! The main thing I have learnt since my time of being here is those that tend to do well are the patient ones.
"How about each-way betting? Is this value? I have to say a resounding YES to this – but what do you lot think?" Each way betting is a bookmakers bet, as why don’t they let you do a place bet? reason is that they want your win bet! A common mis-conception over each way betting is the place return people instantly think a 20/1 will pay a nice 5/1 for the place – not true, it’s only true if it wins and at 20/1 you have a 5% chance of this! So presuming it loses would expect 5/1 return? You put a £10 bet on each way and it finishes second which you will recieve £50 back.
So you staked £20 to win £30 in reality – those odds equate to 6/4, not so generous eh! Whereas if a place bet existed other than at the Tote you could have had 5/1! I personally think it is a bet the bookmakers want as it carries little risk.
Of course this is only my opinion and an opinion I feel strongly about as a while back I decided each way betting is not for me and I’m the type that regularly backs double figure odds horses.
So can I take it that those people who think a winner is a winner take no notice of the sp percentage.
Thinking about it wasn’t there a good example some years ago when JPs horse won a handicap hurdle at the Cheltenham festival.The price on offer was 9/1 but JPs men were only offered 7/1 so no bets were struck.Can’t remember the name of the horse.I don’t think it was Time For A Run.
Re Each way betting – a lot of people forget or don’t realise that you don’t have to split the stake half and half. Given the right odds it can make more sence to have 75% of the stake on the win and the remainder on the place, so that you are at least covering your outlay but also increasing your win dividend.
Yeah but Graham you can’t have 75% on the place part with a bookmaker though can you.
There’s always the Tote, DL! :)
Does anyone know if it’s possible to bet place only on the bet exchanges?
And on that subject whether you can bet in fractions ie 100/8, 100/12 etc?
Your bookie must be ‘nut’s’ as a 20/1 shot x £50 each way at 1/5th the odds should have returned £200!!
I’m really glad you’re happy with your 1/1 place bet on a 20/1 shot, long term me thinks you won’t be so glad? :(
But if you fancied the fav and 2nd fav to run well you are only competing for third so all of a sudden your 20/1 shot becomes 6/4 to beat the remaining runners. Surely The Matrix – which had a decent chance of turning over the favourite was a safer each-way option with 3/1 available on course and a chance of getting a return on the WIN part of the bet.
Your win stake lost Esc so £50 needs subtracting from your total. :(
I’m not knocking you but I really think if you backed these types each way long term (20/1 shots hoping for 3rd place) you will come unstuck to which I hope I am wrong.
At one stage the vast majority of my bets were each way but these days I am more selective.I went to have a biggish bet on Beau for the National this lunchtime at 33s with Ladbrokes with the intention of having it win only(the price was cut so I didn’t bother).Each way betting definitely has its advantages.<br>Escorial if you don’t understand or use sp percentages you will just be another mug punter
Quote: from Escorial on 4:17 pm on Jan. 15, 2002[br]DL…..if I had £100 at the beginning of the day and, I give my voucher to the bookmaker after the race….he gives me back £250….I made a profit of £150….I`d be happy with that….if I`d backed the winner, I`d have shown a profit of £72.72….so I made more than double that with my e.w. punt.<br>
Good evening sir….In fact it was merly £27.28 more than backing the favorite as £50 ew @ 20/1 on 1/5th odds = £200 returns cash (£250 for the place win minus £50 for your win loss).  Can you ask your bookie to do my accounts next week for me….:smiley:
Like Escorial, i fully understand what is being written on this thread. I’m swaying back and forth here, i’ve sat and thought about this and i’m not sure if the value option being discussed is the best option, from my point of view anyway.
For one, i’d like to cut to the chase and ask all of you who make your own book to pick a race and show me (or us) exactly how you do it. You must be working to a method so lets see it, whats the big secret, if there’s no secret then take the time to post it. I for one would appreciate it.
Sorry Esc you are quite right (as always!:smiley: )….it’s been one hell of a long day for me! Maybe not such a good idea to get into a debate with you when not 100% awake :o
Ali, I would gladly show you one of my books when I do one as I have written a program that produces this from my speed ratings but I’m not impressed with this years AW performance (due to surface changes altering standard times slightly) but when the flat season kicks in I would gladly do so – it only calculates ratings into percentages so it’s no big secret for me (similar to my example but using my stop watch ratings).
I realise that each person has their own way of producing a book, i’d just like to see 2 or 3 different scenarios. What i cant yet understand is how you can read a race, find your winner, then transfer all the information you used to find that winner into producing your book. I’m guessing that most of the information you used to find that winner is not used when making your book, this therefor leads me to believe that the book produced would have to be inacurate.
Now i realise that your book is not produced around the one horse, all runners are taken into account, but to find your winner you also have to take all runners into account also, so all this information would have to be used in order to make your book accurate.
<br>I believe i’m making sense here, at least i understand what i’m thinking. I’m not saying without using all of the information you used to find the winner of the race when making your book is wrong, i just cant understand how it would work otherwise, sure’ly without all the information the book would have to be inacurate?
(Edited by ALI at 9:12 pm on Jan. 15, 2002)
Hi all <br>I am a new member and find the debate interesting and enjoyable. I can see the point Escoriel is trying to make however I do not agree with him for the following reasons: If you are a punter who just likes a bet and this is just pleasure, fine, no need to get all wound up about the price, however if you are a serious punter or have to make  the game pay year in and year out as I do then the price you take is of huge importance.
Racing like any other business is dependant on amongst other things money management. If a grocer buys in his stock from a supplier who is charging more than his competitors suppliers he will eventually go broke. MY stock is horses , if I buy into them at any price Mr Hill or Mr Ladbroke decides, I will be very quickly be out of business. It is essential that I understand the market.
Odds accessors and market forces make many mistakes or if you like differ from me, who is right? My books say I am right enough of the time.(I hope this doesn’t sound arrogant, it’s just the truth).
Bookmakers and pro punters make their profits from the average punters all over the country not worrying about what price they pay for their stock or enjoyment.
ron b
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