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Two that interest me are Baie Des Iles and Regal Encore.
It’s a pity there isn’t more press about this race, there’s no indication of intentions from connections for 95% of the entries. Regal Encore was supposed to go to the Ladbroke and Honeyball had mentioned the Charlie hall before and ended up in an Aintree hurdle. It probably won’t be soft enough for the Irish mare but I’ll be keeping an eye on entries tomorrow.
Backed Tiger Roll, Cause Of Causes and Children’s List.
I have no fears for small horses at Aintree, especially since the fences have been reduced. I was all over Sunnyhill Boy in 2013 and he was a small horse.
Tiger Roll and Cause Of Causes will be obvious considering their performances in the previous 12 months.
More interesting an worth mentioning are my interests in Children’s List and Captain Redbeard.
Children’s List is 100+ on exchanges and for good reason. He’ll be heading to Fairyhouse judging by the prize money and trainers title Mullins will be defending. I couldn’t let him go unbacked here though.
Captain Redbeard is a prgressive horse in form. He only came to my attention when he finished 2nd in the Peter Marsh. I thought that was an eye catching performance for a horse with a stout pedigree testing himself before heading to Aintree. He clearly handles Heavy ground but also handles decent ground equally. His try over the Aintree fences in Decembers Sefton thankfully keeps him under the radar. He was hampered then made a mistake that finished his chance in that race but I saw enough to think that the course holds no fears for him. Since then he’s won the Tommy Whittle, finished runner up in the Peter Marsh and won off a career high mark over hurdles as a prep for this. He’s clearly going the right way with his top 3 RPR have come in the past year.
I feel this horse is seriously under estimated and with the old cliche “if this horse was trained by a bigger trainer” he’d be 20s.
Children’s List is my long term fancy for this and the Aintree race as well. He’ll want proper spring ground which looks unlikely. I’m definitely not letting him go unbacked and have had a few quid on at 33s. If he turns up he won’t be close to that. PUlled up on his last start, he jumped very well out of ground he would have hated. He was travelling brilliantly until 4 out when he got tired to my eyes and was pulled up to save him for another day.
I’m sure he’ll be targeted at a spring chase and considering his run in the IGN trial at Punchestown with the trainers title on the line and the huge prize money on offer there can only be one outcome. Provided the ground improves to yielding at worst I’d be very confident this horse will go close.
Vintage Clouds was running well in this last year 7lbs lower. He was under pressure 3 furlongs out and couldn’t get his landing gear out jumping the second last.
His form on testing ground is well known. We won’t know the ground for certain until the races are run, but this fella likes it soft.
Sue Smith form is not a worry with two winners lately 2/10 (20%). And Danny Cook has won 5/21 (24%) in the last 2 weeks.
Based on his run last year I think he could go much closer with the slower ground and 14/1 is underestimating him
Mysteree the one for me. Dodged the race at Cheltenham on Friday, massive record winning first time out the last three seasons. Missed the cut for this last season and probably lucky too, Native River was not for beating. Hopefully slow ground prevails and Mysteree can show himself to be ideal for this race.
Relative price to Chase the Spud is totally wrong. Mysteree is a 6/1 shot here at worst.
Ploughed into the 20/1.
Well Euginio was not declared at 5 day staged unfortunately. He was also declared a non-runner in the race at Newmarket. Can anyone shed any light on why he was withdrawn on Saturday? I can’t seem to find any reason.
Eddystone Rock is still in there and Pat Dobbs is set to ride again. Not sure what to expect now but sticking with Eddystone Rock.
Shanghai Glory has been on my radar since before the Stewards Cup and backed him again in the Great St Wilfrid. I’m hoping he can put it all together here at Ayr. Backed him near enough to when the weights came out and more at each tick he’s come in. I’m very rarely a favourite backer but I was confident there was plenty of juice in his price.
Two others I have been keeping an eye on since Goodwood are Upstaging and Aeolus. I’ve backed both those as well, unfortunately I won’t get a run with Upstaging this time round but Aeolus is still in the mix. Looks like there’ll be plenty of rain about coming up to Saturday and Aeolus will handle plenty of it.
I’ve been keen on Eddystone Rock and Euginio for this for a few weeks. I’m slightly concerned both are entered up at Newbury this weekend, and I’m hoping both sidestep their engagements in favour of a run at Newmarket.
Eddystone Rock was my pick last year for Murtagh before he got injured and I thought this might have been the plan ever since. If he doesn’t get wound up for this in particular I’d be very disappointed.
Euginio is a late developing horse but with plenty potential. Been keen on him since watching him finish 5th to Thundering Blue. He was getting going that day and took a big bump and still ran on. His effort at Doncaster was very encouraging, he quickened up well there to get in front and I think the straight track will suit him.
On both at 33s and gutted if both don’t run.
Nail on the head there VtC!
I’m on Squats, luckily nabbed the 33s WilliamHill were offering this afternoon.
Adam Kirby jocked up has 100% (3 for 3) with Haggas this year.
He’s versatile ground wise, 2lbs wrong on official figures but well capable of banging this in if he can find his form again.Big concern is his lack of interest since starting back this season.
Still, 33/1 is a price worth paying at his beloved Ascot. I say beloved, he’s won there once. But placed 7/11 races there.Would have been 7/9 without this years terrible form
Looking forward to finding out though
Good luck folks!
Very little between Orderofthegarter and Taj Mahal. Biggest difference is the price. Wouldn’t have been an easy decision for Moore. 16/1 is a great price
Medahim is improving and his run at Goodwood was unlucky and shows he is very competitive in high class handicaps. Should do as well over 8f. Previous attempt should be ignored.
Great price at 25/1, 30+ exchanges
Afaak is interesting too. Out of Ghanaati and very unexposed
I think Quest For More is overpriced here at 22/1. Ought to be closer to 10/1 IMO
While I’m not Spencers biggest fan, I’m not his biggest critic either – but I think missing George Baker is a big loss for the horse. I’m hoping this year Charlton has been teeing the horse up for this race. He’s much better than these odds are suggesting. He’s beaten Vazirabad on his own turf, he’s fairly versatile in race position, prefers better ground.
Really prefer these thunderstorms stay away
Backed Folsom Blue in this last year and only backed him in the Irish and Scottish Nationals since. I’m very aware of his difficulty in winning over teh past two years and so I expect a decent price about him. He’s now 50s on Betfair which is great for this race. Effectively 5lbs worse than last year without the claim but he was competitive enough that I think with a more adventurous ride he can win here. The worry now is that he’s become too cute and doesn’t fancy it anymore.
The other one is Colms Dream, bred to get a trip and has done so over hurdles, he’s unexposed over 3m chasing. This race was the target last year but he missed the cut. He’s in this year and I think he can be very competitive of this mark. He’s surely underestimated and his form from punchestown last year is decent. He can improve on that over this trip.
I’ve a very good record in this race. It’s a race I love both for financial reasons and because I love these staying chasers.
I’ve tried to find something this evening before Pricewise goes and takes the price on it. After spending just under and hour looking, my problem is there is too many with potential to have a bet at this stage.
I see now Pricewise must have nominated Racing Pulse and Baie Des Iles, they’re very blue on the odds comparison sites. I can see the case for Racing Pulse having won a novice chase at Chepstow. But the form figures of P0PUB don’t appeal even at this stage. Baie Des Iles ran well in the Irish National last season but this is even more of a test and for a 5yo I don’t think it’s ideal.
I’d agree that Harry Topper must be of interest. Kim Bailey has said today in his blog that he’s being aimed at the race and I’m sure many of us have been witing for that for a couple of years!
Mystree is being touted by Michael Scudamore this week after his win at Haydock. He’ll get in the foot of the weights. He beat Chase The Spud who was pulled up in this last year and doesn’t get an entry this time round. Not massively convincing but he has potential.
Milansbar Is another strong stayer, wants the mud, and even better, is a prominant racer. He was beaten by Firebird Flyer in the Midlands, theres a pull of 3lbs in teh weights there and Milansbar is double the price.
Waldorf Salad is another interesting one. Too many at this point!
Harry Topper looks like being diverted to Weatherby. Very starnge behaviour from the trainer. The Welsh National has appeared to be the aim for over a year and now he says it’ll be hard to win it on his first start back since his last run in Feb 2015. He still has Knockanrawley in there whose been off sinceNov 2015. Disappointing, consistently misleading comments from Bailey.
I’ve settled on Milansbar now. Big price at 33/1. progressive, unexposed and likely to get the conditions he prefers. His run style suits this race and he jumps efficiently for a contest like the Welsh Grand National.
The other horse I’m keen on and have also backed is Shotgun Paddy. He’s a cliff horse for many but I’ve never backed him.He ran very well off top weight last season in this and has a very nice pull with Mountainous and Firebird Flyer. He alse lugs 7lbs less around the course this time round.
Vieux Lion Rouge all the way for me. Had two decent stabs at him at big prices. Hoping he can do the business. Jumped around perfectly in April, going as smoothly as you could wish for until the tank emptied. James Reveley gave him a peach of a ride.
Ucello Conti has just as much going for him, he smashed the 26th in the National and stayed on better than Vieux Lion Rouge. Obvious danger. Judging by how they travelled and jumped I think VLR has the edge especially having been dropped 4lbs while Ucello dropped the 1 lbs.
I’ve backed Alvarado in both his National runs, I was particularly excited in 2015 thinking I had the winner. Sadly, he’s not got that class for a National. He’s sure to run his race here, and I was impressed with his performance in the Scottish National. These are more his type of race. I expect him to be bang there provided he isn’t given too much to do.
I’m keeping a close eye on Silvergrove as well. He hasn’t convinced this season. His run at Cheltenham last year shows what a good jumper he can be. It remains to be seen if he’s in form for this. I’m hoping he’ll run another nice race but slightly behind staying on. Look to invest for the Spring.
One that might not jump off the page is Seventh Sky. A close 2nd in the Grand Sefton last year, he stays well enough and jumps these fences well. Looks a nice price at 20s+. Didn’t get home over 3m4f166y in the Bet365, but he should see out this trip. Won the TommyWhittle at Haydock on Heavy going away from Spookydooky after that. He’s 4lbs higher than that win having run well in second last time out but that shows he’s in good form. Capable off this mark.
Think I’ll have a saver on Seventh Sky to follow up on Vieux Lion Rouge.
Good Luck
I’ve a very good record in this race. It’s a race I love both for financial reasons and because I love these staying chasers.
I’ve tried to find something this evening before Pricewise goes and takes the price on it. After spending just under and hour looking, my problem is there is too many with potential to have a bet at this stage.
I see now Pricewise must have nominated Racing Pulse and Baie Des Iles, they’re very blue on the odds comparison sites. I can see the case for Racing Pulse having won a novice chase at Chepstow. But the form figures of P0PUB don’t appeal even at this stage. Baie Des Iles ran well in the Irish National last season but this is even more of a test and for a 5yo I don’t think it’s ideal.
I’d agree that Harry Topper must be of interest. Kim Bailey has said today in his blog that he’s being aimed at the race and I’m sure many of us have been witing for that for a couple of years!
Mystree is being touted by Michael Scudamore this week after his win at Haydock. He’ll get in the foot of the weights. He beat Chase The Spud who was pulled up in this last year and doesn’t get an entry this time round. Not massively convincing but he has potential.
Milansbar Is another strong stayer, wants the mud, and even better, is a prominant racer. He was beaten by Firebird Flyer in the Midlands, theres a pull of 3lbs in teh weights there and Milansbar is double the price.
Waldorf Salad is another interesting one. Too many at this point!
Totesport/Betfred, the only one going 20s Join Together and I’m pretty sure he’s overpriced at that and would advise a bet.
Teaforthree also high on my shortlist: both horses can be forgiven poor last runs. Why Nicholls sent JT over 3 miles at Donny Lord knows – he’d need 5 miles at that track. Not such an obvious excuse for T43, but I’m always happy to allow a decent horse one bad run.
I’ve had a few bets (win only) as usual. I prefer to bet half a dozen to win than 3 EW in the National.
In order of preference:
Join Together
Teaforthree
Colbert StationQuel Esprit
Saint AreWorth remembering they’re committed to watering if necessary to get ground on soft side of good. My guess is they will make it closer to soft for safety reasons. That gives the likes of Join Together & Teaforthree a boost, especially JT who is brimming with stamina but has a dash of quality too. Could go off at around 12s imo
Couldn’t agree more. Teaforthree’s performance in the Henessey (class), Cheltenham in the four miler (jumping) and prominent run style would be a match made in heaven if he had Join Togethers pedigree.
These two horses are purpose built for the national. Join Together is a bit sketchy and a tad slow though…we’ll see on the day. I’ve backed both to the exclusion of the rest.
There are obvious dangers like Sunnyhillboy who I backed last year and think could win it. I don’t think Seabass or Cappa Bleu will reverse it with him.
Colbert Station is a massive blot on the race. How are we meant to assess his potential. Papa Walsh and JP….!? F*** off! DANGER! DANGER!
Finally Poker De Sivola…horribly out of form horse comeing back from injury and a trainer who has had a lean spell but he comes in under the radar and will probably get as close to his ground as Aintree will permit. Is he the same horse as won the 4 miler and the Whitbread???
My top 5, in order, are:
1) Teaforthree
2) Sunnyhillboy
3) Join Together
4) Colbert Station
5) Poker De Sivola
