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I contributed the above post to the ‘Epsom Derby 2010’ thread.
The manner of his defeat today was something of a shock, but the fact that he was beaten was not. Always a pleasure to read the opinions of others, but, as usual, plenty of over-reacting.
Like Seamie Heffernan at Epsom, Richard Mullen’s judged his ride to the second on the pacemaker, gradually increasing the tempo as the race progressed.
Workforce can have no excuses. Fast conditions have not inconvenienced him in the past. He held a perfect position off a perfect pace, travelled strongly, threw down a challenge, but failed to respond at the business end and folded tamely at the two furlong marker.
He simply wasn’t good enough on the day.
Harbinger was simply awesome. Never seen that coming, but one has to laugh at the comparisons to Sea The Stars. Similar drivel was written in the aftermath of Epsom and look what happened.
A wide margin winner in record breaking time. What happened next?
Longchamp will represent a completely different challenge and it’s wishful thinking that Harbinger, as good as he is, will reproduce that level of performance again. The Arc will stay at home his year, in my opinion.
Can Harbinger add another glittering prize to this, his first Group One success, or are many simply over-reacting?
I’m experiencing a case of deja vu…It’s all coming back to me…May 17th 2003. Do you remember, too?
Look, whatever about how good we think STS was, Oxx was
extremely
careful about the ground he ran him on. Maybe Stoute wasn’t as careful as John Oxx was. Stoute and Moore (and me! look at the horses action ffs) said the ground was too lively for him. I think he travelled well enough in the Derby but the dip did the wonders for him. The slope lessened the impact of his stride and may have helped him in his acceleration at that particular course. Its a theory at least.
Lots of good arguements here.
First I’ll start by saying what a brilliant performance Harbinger put in. If I hadn’t lost money in the race I’d have been jumping on the couch.
Workforce….
1) Knee action is too high for fast ground. He will do damage to himself running on it. He’ll be sore tomorrow, thats for sure
2) I believe the theory of Willoghby’s that a horse can over stretch themselves and leave scars.
3) Many say that Ascot is a specialists track, some horses dont perform there
4) He probably was too free, he was covered up on both his romps in a big field coming through horses
5) He was said to be in a "disheveled" state after the Derby – backing up Willoughbys claims
6) The Cape Blanco form is not over yet. Would Cape Blanco have broken the Epsom course record? We’ll never know. What we know is that he hasn’t got that on his CV. Think of Dick Turpin and Canford Cliffs. I thought DTs beating of Canford in two races confirmed superiority but thats not the case.
7) Yes, Workforce is probably over-hyped, but he’s still an awesome horse. We have to forgive him this run. But as mentioned before, he may never recover from Epsom.These are my thoughts
Himalya @ 12/1
Still competitive off top weight and has the will and consistency to win. Drawn dead in the middle and wont have the rail to help him this time but at least the connections can decide which side to go. Big chance as always with this horse.
Jeez, give yer man a break, he doesn’t wish ill on the horse. I had an ew on Dar Re Mi, and I’m disappointed to say the least but I’ve gone in big on Workforce now shes out.
Workforce – for the good of Horse Racing!
Buzzword won. I’m not that surprised. He’s might perform best outside of Britain and Montrerosso was beat as soon as they started. Zazou was still a long way clear of the rest in 2nd and he will definitely still be one to follow in German Group 1’s imo.
I’m gutted I didn’t know Buzzword was in the race. I didn’t even know it was on until 5 minutes before the off to be honest! I backed Buzzword ew at Epsom fwiw. Fantastic to see him get a classic. He’s the kind of horse I hope stays in training as a four year old. They’re only just getting to grips with him now!
Great post Ivanjica. Great to learn a little about the past. To be honest, stats and records don’t mean very much to me when it comes to these races. The fact only so many fillies won a certain race is inconsequential. The facts that are important are – what the filly has achieved compared to what her rivals have achieved. This race is the only one that matters, not any of the previous ones.
@ Shirleyheights
And for interests sake, how many of those King Georges were contested by fillies?Some one on another forum said Hibaayeb was a great bet and I replied that she’s the most likely to hate the ground. I wasn’t wrong. Snow fairy wasn’t proven on GS/GY and had potential, but Hibaayeb has shown she hates it and now theres no denying it
Now there are only 8 runners Dar Re Mi @ 12.1 loks a good EW bet to me forget last run a 4 runner race and she needed that anyway
I took the 14/1 a couple of weeks ago…Shes back out to 14/1 now the runners have been depleted. Strange…only thing I can think of is that she’d be suited by a bigger field but that doesn’t add up either.
Anyone think they know why Dar Re Mi has drifted in the Ante Post market?
There is rain alright
http://www.met.ie/latest/rainfall_radar.asp?ani=y
Snow Fairy blew up in a listed race on soft ground 19l at the end of last year after after running 3rd a short neck in a G3. Doesn’t look good for the favorite, The Dam wasn’t in love with it either..
Hibaayeb looks to have question marks over it too. Eased on GS at Newmarket in the Guineas. She seems to thrive on GF more than anything. Dam didn’t mind it but only wins came on GF.
Meeznah has run on Good at worst but Dynaformer is 14% on Heavy ground and the Dam won a listed on VSft in France and broke her maiden on GS.
Eldalil and Hibaayeb share the same sire who in fact has a less than brilliant record for progeny on GS or worse at 6%/7% and 15% on GF. Dam didn’t look too keen on it but went close on GS on one occasion
Remember Whens dam just didn’t look very good on any ground. Danehill Dancers progeny have no issue with it though and RW pushed winner to a neck on debut on Heavy. Not much to say other than it doesn’t look like causing any issues.
Akdarena has 2yo Soft form at the Curragh. Looks like she was running too short a distance though at that point (IMO). Sire Hernando seems to have balanced record on ground with 15% on heavy. Dam won 17 runner maiden at 4/9 by 5l on Yielding at Fairyhouse and arguably her worst run came on Good at Doncaster.
Desert Sage ran winner to 1/2l on debut on GS. Sire 9% on Heavy and 11-12% on Soft, GS. Balanced. Winless dam ran whole career in France in bogs so hard to decipher but ran 1/2l on debut on VSft and 2nd again on Soft at Deauville.
Last One
Crystal Gal ran best in the Irish Guineas on GF but beat Free Judgement and Jan Vermeer on debut in Sft/Heavy ground at the Curragh. Jan Vermeer a derby hopeful and Free Judgement who was closest to Canford Cliffs in the Irish Guineas. Disappointed in an 8f Listed race on Soft back at the Curragh but beaten by Lady Lupus, Akdarena, and Atasari who are very quick but probably don’t stay. Crystal Gal got to within 3l of bethra in the Irish guineas, finishing just behind Lillie Langtry and Music Show (Both came out and won Group ones subsequently over a mile). Shes By Galileo out of a Danehill mare (he produces a lot of stayers despite being a sprinter himself) so is bred to stay. 40/1, 33/1 could be made to look very silly tomorrow.
If Binocular beats Hurricane Fly in a Champion Hurdle I’ll give up backing horses
If Hurricane fly beats "The" Binocular that won last seasons Champion hurdle i"ll give up backing horses!
Better start packing.
I wonder what odds you’d get on Henderson winning it next year?
I backed Burton Port ew for the RSA and I’m tempted to follow up antepost for the Gold Cup. I can’t have Kauto at 5/1 either. Theres just too much competition and he’s getting on. We won’t know for sure until Haydock/Down Royal. It will be his first since the fall too.
I’d take shorter than 4/1 on Henderson winning it if his three were guaranteed a run
I certainly wouldn’t be confident about collecting on workforce. How many times have horses won a group 1 by wide margins only to fall short next time??from xarr in the dewhurst hawk wing at newbury to royal anthem and bosra sham.There was something just not right about the derby result it was to funny a race to be taken at face value.At York wf was beaten an easy 3 lengths by cb and anyone who has ridden horse will know that the bit slipping doesn’t stop a horse going forward or faster and I can’t believe that wf improved 20/30 pounds from York if he did he wouldn’t have gone off at 8/1 the stoute yard and all I’d Newmarket would of been backing this one.He was beaten easily by cb at York and considering how bad the ballydoyle horses were needing that 1st run I expect it to be cb coming out on top.
That Dante form is almost unintelligable (spelling
) Coordinated Cuts proximity to the winners makes no sense and so you have to assume that race was hugely under whelming. According to RP standard times it was fast my 0.80 seconds and the Listed handicap straight after was fast by 1.58s and the Middleton (Sariska) before the Dante was fast by 1.30s. Basically it wasn’t a truely run race while not being a farce. Coordinated cut has finished 12l behind both Cape Blanco and Workforce in his last two runs.Cape Blancos first start of the year was also Workforces first of the year. Both probably needed to wind up before their real targets. This is the only real explanation for Coordinated cuts position in the Dante. Obviously Workforce and Cape Blanco are good but still didn’t run to form in that race. I don’t think the Dante is a useful form line – it doesn’t make sense.
As you said, there is something fishy about the Derby. It’s just hard to believe the other runners are THAT far off Workforce.
Dettori has got the ride on her. I did her eachway today in Will Hill @ 5/1.
I hope she does the business!
Whats the record for Ascot winners doubling up in the July Cup? Stats men, Stat!
Sariskas trainer aint dumb he knows shes got no chance unless ground comes up a bog. Neither has Daremi both one paced plodders. No acceleration whatsoever just the ability to stay and grind no chance.
Yet Daremi was seen as a "good thing" in the Eclipse over 10 furlongs at 5/2.
That was ridiculous. I in no way bought into that. I knew she wouldn’t be ready for it. She’ll be spot on for this though…
Whos your idea of the winner? Or better still, who is the value in the race in your opinion?
) Coordinated Cuts proximity to the winners makes no sense and so you have to assume that race was hugely under whelming. According to RP standard times it was fast my 0.80 seconds and the Listed handicap straight after was fast by 1.58s and the Middleton (Sariska) before the Dante was fast by 1.30s. Basically it wasn’t a truely run race while not being a farce. Coordinated cut has finished 12l behind both Cape Blanco and Workforce in his last two runs.