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Please accept my apology, but I am going to put a dampener on things.
A few things I’ve noticed watching the race again:
It’s clear from the time of the race that Seamie Heffernan judged his ride to perfection on At First Sight. He set an even tempo from start to finish – not too slow, not too fast. It was a wonderful piece of riding.
Workforce was the only challenger to emerge from the pack with any conviction. Here’s what I found to be most interesting…
Entering the descent into Tattenham Corner, Workforce and Rewilding were matching strides, Ryan kicked on and the response was almost immediate. Frankie’s horse didn’t appear to handle it too well and lost several lengths. Whilst Workforce appeared to quicken better than anything down the straight, he never dramatically increased his advantage over the eventual third from the three furlong pole, despite Rewilding pitching.
Have a look at the aerial replay and examine the respective positions of these two colts from the three furlong pole. Workforce increased his advantage, but not in the manner I initially thought he did.
Workforce went past At First Sight well inside the final two furlongs, who you would have thought was coming to the end of his tether by this stage, with the Godolphin colt nearly snatching second on the line.
The Ballydoyle duo ran hightly respectable races in fourth and fifth, but Johnny said he was never happy on Jan Vermeer and Midas Touch perhaps didn’t handle the course.
The winner is clearly very, very good, but the best 3YO doesn’t always win The Derby, but rather, the best horse to handle the conditions of the race.
I contributed the above post to the ‘Epsom Derby 2010’ thread.
The manner of his defeat today was something of a shock, but the fact that he was beaten was not. Always a pleasure to read the opinions of others, but, as usual, plenty of over-reacting.
Like Seamie Heffernan at Epsom, Richard Mullen’s judged his ride to the second on the pacemaker, gradually increasing the tempo as the race progressed.
Workforce can have no excuses. Fast conditions have not inconvenienced him in the past. He held a perfect position off a perfect pace, travelled strongly, threw down a challenge, but failed to respond at the business end and folded tamely at the two furlong marker.
He simply wasn’t good enough on the day.
Harbinger was simply awesome. Never seen that coming, but one has to laugh at the comparisons to Sea The Stars. Similar drivel was written in the aftermath of Epsom and look what happened.
A wide margin winner in record breaking time. What happened next?
Longchamp will represent a completely different challenge and it’s wishful thinking that Harbinger, as good as he is, will reproduce that level of performance again. The Arc will stay at home his year, in my opinion.
Can Harbinger add another glittering prize to this, his first Group One success, or are many simply over-reacting?
I’m experiencing a case of deja vu…It’s all coming back to me…May 17th 2003. Do you remember, too?
Right then,this is how the King saw todays result of the King George! Confront set a very good gallop,solid throughout,Workforce was awkward and is clearly not a fast ground horse,he is way better than that and anyone who thinks differently doesn"t make horseracing pay! his Derby victory was phenomenal on ground he didn"t like but because Epsom is an easy downhill track he got away with it,in course record time,he will eat Cape Blanco for breakfast in the Arc!
Harbinger
won todays race in the style of a horse who would have beaten any horse that has ran in the race ever,including Dancing Brave,it was the most impressive victory i can remember,the horse looked all over the winner from a mile out,incredibly he touched 5"s in running,3 out he hit evens as soon as Workforce was shoved! To win like that marks this fellow down as extroadinary and it is quite apparent he hasn"t stopped improving,on genuinely fast ground Harbinger would win the Arc in a canter,any cut at all and Workforce will quieten all those "Losers" who really dont know their horses!
I’m experiencing a case of deja vu…It’s all coming back to me…May 17th 2003. Do you remember, too?
I remember sitting in front of the TV watching what looked like a Dinosaur heading straight for me from a rain soaked Newbury,it was memorable because the camera was filming from a head-on perspective and the beast in question was
Hawk Wing
winning the Lockinge!
<snip>
I contributed the above post to the ‘Epsom Derby 2010’ thread.
The manner of his defeat today was something of a shock, but the fact that he was beaten was not. Always a pleasure to read the opinions of others, but, as usual, plenty of over-reacting.
Like Seamie Heffernan at Epsom, Richard Mullen’s judged his ride to the second on the pacemaker, gradually increasing the tempo as the race progressed.
Workforce can have no excuses. Fast conditions have not inconvenienced him in the past. He held a perfect position off a perfect pace, travelled strongly, threw down a challenge, but failed to respond at the business end and folded tamely at the two furlong marker.
He simply wasn’t good enough on the day.
Harbinger was simply awesome. Never seen that coming, but one has to laugh at the comparisons to Sea The Stars. Similar drivel was written in the aftermath of Epsom and look what happened.
A wide margin winner in record breaking time. What happened next?
Longchamp will represent a completely different challenge and it’s wishful thinking that Harbinger, as good as he is, will reproduce that level of performance again. The Arc will stay at home his year, in my opinion.
Can Harbinger add another glittering prize to this, his first Group One success, or are many simply over-reacting?
I’m experiencing a case of deja vu…It’s all coming back to me…May 17th 2003. Do you remember, too?
Look, whatever about how good we think STS was, Oxx was
extremely
careful about the ground he ran him on. Maybe Stoute wasn’t as careful as John Oxx was. Stoute and Moore (and me! look at the horses action ffs) said the ground was too lively for him. I think he travelled well enough in the Derby but the dip did the wonders for him. The slope lessened the impact of his stride and may have helped him in his acceleration at that particular course. Its a theory at least.
TAPK,
I doubt very much Cape Blanco will go near the Arc. It’s good to know that we have a new excuse on the Workforce front, he got away with feeing the ground at Epsom because of the downhill finish, that’s a brilliant one! He breaks the record on genuinely quick ground at Epsom, though he doesn’t handle the ground! I was a big excuse maker for Hawk Wing when he was in his prime, because I was a huge fan of the horse, when he finished second there always was an excuse. However, in time I learned that the reasons why HW got beat was because he was beaten by genuinely better horses. I guess Workforce maybe your Hawk Wing.
JohnJ.
Harbinger – I don’t think anyone expected that performance today, I’m quite astounded how they have put him in the smaller races this season, he has looked impressive in every race he has ran this season. Another thought of his victory says Age Of Aquarius may have been a better bet than Cape Blanco for this race. Harbinger and Age Of Aquarius have improved tenfold this season really is amazing training feats.
Cape Blanco – A solid effort, I think the only reason he can compete at 1m4f is his class cause he would be much better at 1m2f and he will be next seen at York for the International, I think he will take the beating in this one.
Workforce – To be fair I think the ground has done him, his two defeats now have been easy for his opponents and if the Arc is soft I wouldn’t rule him out for it. Disappointing none the less.
Johnjo, its a well known fact a class horse will "Get away" with running on fast ground the once and Workforce did just that in the Derby,no one was more concerned than me about it prior to the race,you only have to look at his action to see how hard he hits the ground! As for comparing him with the enigmatic but top class Hawk Wing? There is no comparison! Hawk Wing did win a Group 1 race as a 2,3 and 4yo mind! Workforce will only run on ground with a bit of cut from now on and when he does,he"ll be back with a bang!
What the "winners" don’t seem to realize is Workforce was in a race today and wilted like a pacemaker doesn’t bode well for future races.
Cape Blanco deserves an extra special pat on the back for directly chasing the rabbit and being the 1st under pressure yet sticking to his guns battling it out but unfortunately setting it up for Harbinger to pick up the pieces."Get away" with it, that’s the point he did more than that, he smashed the record on it! That’s why I am astounded people say he doesn’t act on fast ground, I have not looked closely at his action but will do. As for the comparisons to HW, I was not comparing both horses abilities, rather the excuses! Btw, well done on Harbinger, a very good result for you!
JohnJ
Gingertipster I would be interested to see what you rate Harbinger after that performance. I have him at 138 (and I tried to rate it down) which is 7lbs higher than Sea The Stars best rating (Eclipse).
This is only one run remember but no doubt its a megastar performance.
One note of caution – Harbinger’s best two career runs have both been at Ascot and Ascot is a funny track now. It maybe that Harbinger’s rating is elevated by the fact that he’s one of those who overperforms at Ascot?
Time will tell.
Now that I’ve looked at the form book carefully.
Think you’re dead right Ian. 138+STS was 140.
I rated the Eclipse on Paco Boy, who did not run in the race. But Rip Van Winkle’s win in the Sussex, running to the same mark as the Eclipse. Conduit if I remember rightly was a couple of pounds below his best there.Value Is EverythingCape Blanco deserves an extra special pat on the back for directly chasing the rabbit and being the 1st under pressure yet sticking to his guns battling it out but unfortunately setting it up for Harbinger to pick up the pieces.
Agreed, Stacelita.
What an admirable colt. Like you said, first under pressure, but still maintained his effort right to the line.
He’ll find life tough from now until the end of the season, but he has twice beaten the Derby winner and has the Irish version to his name.
Hopefully connections will allow him race next season.
"Get away" with it, that’s the point he did more than that, he smashed the record on it! That’s why I am astounded people say he doesn’t act on fast ground, I have not looked closely at his action but will do. As for the comparisons to HW, I was not comparing both horses abilities, rather the excuses! Btw, well done on Harbinger, a very good result for you!
JohnJ
Cheers John, i am not interested in excuses,i rate horses on what i see them do on the racecourse and i am convinced we have still to see the best of Workforce,purely on the fact that he hasn"t yet had his optimum conditions.When he gets them we will see the beast he really is! The Derby was won in course record time and yet Epsoms 11/2m on fast ground was not his ideal conditions so when he does get them beware!
Do let us know what the optimum conditions for Workforce are, AntepostKing.
I’d also like to know the names of the horses he
can
beat, as that would also help when next backing him!
I really think there are few excuses for Stoute’s No 1 three yr old.
He was destroyed and Cape Blanco gives the form a solid look for me.
Harbinger really devours that ground with a high-knee action….so he could go OK on soft ground?
Agree 6/4 about the Arc is way too risky at this stage.
Zip
- Total Posts 438
I’m experiencing a case of deja vu…It’s all coming back to me…May 17th 2003. Do you remember, too?
Royal Anthem’s romp in the International at York is another one for the list.
There’s no doubt that Harbinger was very impressive yesterday and that he produced a performance right out of the top drawer but the hype has been ridiculous. Matt Chapman raised a good point about how the others all struggled to get past Confront and his argument could be taken one step further.
Workforce has beaten his pacemaker, who was eased down close home, by six lengths. Had Confront not been reined back in the last fifty yards and been ridden out, the margin would have been three, perhaps, so it’s clear that the Derby winner didn’t perform to expectations.
Ahead of the Abdullah pair, Youmzain and Daryakana were driven right out in their battle for third place. Are we prepared to accept that two established Group One performers are only five or six lengths better than Confront, allowing for the fact that the latter was eased down? Or has Confront posted a personal best over a trip which he’s never tried before and used as a pacemaker?
Harbinger is going to take a lot of beating wherever he turns up next but I can’t help but feel that the proximity of Confront to the rest of the pack suggests that they’ve all run below their best; either that, or they’re just not very good.
I think sometimes people fail to believe what they see. I’ve never known of one race where the winner hasn’t been criticised (for want of a better word) by someone or other even Sea The Stars last year there were people opposing him in the Arc, Kauto Star is another case.
Whatever way you look at yesterdays King George Harbinger can not fail to be rated very, very highly. Ok Confront wasn’t a million miles behind the pack but he is a group three winning miler don’t forget on his day he’s no mug, he has a highest RPR of 119. I actually think forcing tactics suited him and i can see him winning in group three company again over ten furlongs if ridden the same way.
Even if you rate Youmzain’s run at a paltry 110 Harbinger still has to be in the 130’s and lines through Cape Blanco and the French horse who is a 114 / 115 horse would suggest Youmzain has probably run to around 117.
Harbinger won this race by
eleven lengths
and more, not four or five lengths. Its impossible not to judge it as a truely outstanding performance.
If you want to you can look at just about any race that has ever been run and find some sort of negative. Sometimes you just have to accept greatness – whether its a one off or on a consistant basis.
I think Cape Blanco is a 115-20 horse. I find it hard to understand why anyone would doubt yesterday’s performance from Harbinger. Harbinger wasn’t even in-front coming into the straight and he put (according to the system in place) 11 lengths on 4 Group 1 winners in less than 2 1/2 furlongs.
And if Timeform, or whoever else, rate this win higher, or as high, than Sea The Stars, I feel it’s fully deserved. Sea The Stars won 6 Group 1’s in a row but he never destroyed a field like that. You can only think how much he had left, which means what exactly? Harbinger destroyed a King George field by a huge margin.
Yesterday’s King George reminded me very much of last December’s NH namesake. A brutal pace which seemed to collapse in the straight and one superior animal producing a breathtaking performance that becomes a ratings puzzle.
I remember James Willoughby comparing Kicking King’s KG at Kempton to Dubai Millenium’s KG at Ascot, I thought it was a very insightful comparison (astonishing mid race pace having a strong field legless long before the end).
Harbinger and Kauto Star showed similar style in their KGs, Kauto was helped by a cv that had some very similar performances (ratings wise) so the big number was less contentious. Harbinger has made steady improvement but this was a new level for him, so when the 135-137 rating is announced their will be a larger number of dissenters.As for Sea The Stars, superstars of his kind suffer (in ratings terms)by their run style. Sit…pounce…whoosh…win (2 lengths).
Rock Of Gibraltar was another who never got the rating he deserved with a similar style. That style has some other advantages though as both the above were able to win G1’s every 3 or 4 weeks throughout their 3yo season.
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