German Derby 2010

Today sees the 141st German Derby at Hamburg. It’s a sign of the current times in Germany that the race isn’t being shown live on TV there, yet both SIS and At The Races are showing it live here! Anyway, for anyone interested in the race, I’ve put a little preview together – I’ve also had a go at picking the winner, somthing I haven’t been able to do correctly for the last couple of years!!

MONTEROSSO 1-12114
Jockey: Kieren Fallon
Trainer: Mark Johnston (GB)
The worthy favourite, Monterosso brings genuine Group from from England and Ireland, and although starting off his career in low grade all weather racing before moving onto handicaps, Monterosso blossomed into a top class horse when winning the Group 2 King Edward VII Stakes at Royal Ascot last month. Fourth in the Irish Derby 9 days later showed his quality, and he is the one to beat here. Although regular pilot Frankie Dettori has chosen to ride in the Irish Oaks at the Curragh, 6 times English Jockey champion Kieren Fallon has been flown in for the ride, and it is worth noting that both Monterosso and fellow English raider Buzzword have been supplemented for the race.

ZAZOU 413-161
Jockey: Olivier Peslier
Trainer: Mario Hofer
The highest rated h0me trained horse, Zazou want into many notebookes when winning Germanys richest 2 year old race, the 200,000 Euro Ferdinand Leisten Memorial at Baden-Baden in October. As in that race, he will be ridden by French ace Olivier Peslier,who was also in the saddle in the French 2000 Guineas, where Zazou was a fast finishing sixth. Any stamina doubts for the Derby distance were dispelled when Zazou won the 2 Oppenheim Rennen at Cologne over 2200 metres (1 mile 3 furlongs), seen by many as the top German Derby Trial, despite not getting a clear run until late in the race. That form alone gives him a big chance here.

BUZZWORD 55-0403
Jockey: Royston Ffrench
Trainer: Mahmood Al Zarooni (GB)
Alothugh now not rated as high as compatriot Monterosso, Buzzword was certainly the better 2 year old, winning the Group 3 Prix de la Rochette at Longchamp last year, before ending the campaign with a fine fifth in the Breeders Cup Juvenile at Santa Anita. Fourth in the French 2000 Guineas (Zazou back in sixth), showed that Buzzword had retained at least some of his 2 year old form, and despite being beaten by Monterosso at Royal Ascot last time out, it could be said that he was given too much to do and maybe ridden closer to the pace, could put up a bold show. However, it must be noted that despite being a Godolphin horse, he is not ridden by one of their regular jockeys.

SCALO 1-115
Jockey: Eduardo Pedroza
Trainer: Andreas Woehler
The favourite for the race a couple of months ago after two very impressive Group 3 victories, Scalo was only fifth in the Group 2 Oppenheim Rennen at Cologne. Despite having Zazou, Lindentree, Baschar and Next Hight in front of him, it should be noted that Scalo suffered terrible traffic problems in the home straight with trainer Andreas Woehler adamant that his horse would have won with a clear run. However, with 20 runners in the German Derby compared to just 7 in the Oppenheim, could Scalo suffer trouble in running again? A horse that seems to be best held up, he may well find his way blocked once more, however, given a clear run, he must be one to watch.

RUSSIAN TANGO 3-1131
Jockey: Jozef Bojko
Trainer: Andreas Woehler
Trainer Andreas Woehlers second string, Russian Tango has some excellent form, including winning the Bremen Derby Trial last time out. However, he was a doubtful runner due to an injury recently, and his interrupted build up means he is passed over here.

NEATICO 611-62
Jockey: Christophe Soumillon
Trainer: Peter Schiergen
Along with Scalo and Scorcher (who doesn’t run), Neatico was the Derby ‘talking horse’ of the winter after an emphatic victory in the group 3 Ratibor Rennen at Krefeld, one of Germanys top 2 year old races. Although beaten in a Listed race at Munich last time out, Neatico could be a live outsider, and although never having raced beyond 2000 metres (1 mile 2 furlongs), the assistance of French based Belgian ace jockey Christophe Soumillon is a massive plus.

LINDENTREE 132
Jockey: Yann Lerner
Trainer: Waldermar Hickst
Took advantage of a clear run to kick clear in the Oppenheim, however was caught by Zazous finishing burst and really had the race to suit then. Will probably not find things in his favour as much this time around.

USTILAGO 0-723
Jockey: Dominique Boeuf
Trainer: Werner Baltromei
Although Werner Baltromei is based in Muelheim, he runs most of his horses in France, and that is the case with Ustilago, who has run all four of his races there. Was a 3 length second at Chantilly to the Andre Fabre trained Lumineux (sixth in the French Derby) before a fine third in a Listed event at Saint-Cloud last time out. There are several good form lines here, and with French Listed form usually comparable to German Group form, Ustilago is not a horse to be underestimated and could run well at a big price.

BASCHAR 43-133
Jockey: Anthony Crastus
Trainer: Mirko Minchev
A second ever runner in the race for Bulgarian born Mirko Minchev, who took over the training of the Stall Litex owned horses from Peter Schiergen a couple of years ago. Burst into the Derby picture when a big priced third in the Oppenheim last time out, but took advantage of a clear passge in that race when some of his rivals (notably Scalo) had serious traffic problems.

NORDFALKE 21-26
Jockey: Andreas Goeritz
Trainer: Peter Schiergen
Was second in a decent Listed event at Dortmund earlier this season, but was subsequently well beaten when only sixth to Zazou in the Oppenheim Rennen last time out, and that form gives him plenty to find here.

KEEP COOL 743-241
Jockey: Terence Hellier
Trainer: Andreas Loewe
Would be a popular winner for the likeable trainer Andreas Loewe, however despite winning by 6 lengths at Dortmund last time out, was over 6 lengths behind Scalo at Munich in May, and has plenty to find on that form.

NEXT HIGHT 5-2244
Jockey: Filip Minarik
Trainer: Peter Schiergen
Still a maiden after 5 races which really sums up his chances, and although the Waldermar Hickst trained Sordino was second in last years German Derby whilst still a maiden, I can’t see lightning striking twice.

SUPERSONIC FLIGHT 512
Jockey: Daniele Porcu
Trainer: Miroslav Rulec
Has a 3 kg (6 lbs) pull with Seventh Sky for a 1 1/2 lengths beating last time out, and before that won a conditions race at the tiny south western course of Hassloch. I can’t recall any German Derby winners ever having raced at Hassloch prior to their big race victory, and it is difficult to see Supersonic Flight breaking that record.

NIGHTDANCE PAOLO 147-433
Jockey: Jiri Palik
Trainer: Peter Schiergen
Consistent sort who has finished third in two Group 3 events this season, however both of those were won in clear cut fashion by Scalo, so has plenty to find wth that rival. Tends to front run in his races, so could well be up there for a while.

LAMOOL 21-555
Jockey: Adrie de Vries
Trainer: Mario Hofer
Finished behind Nightdance Paolo in both aforementioned Group 3 races this season, and despite Dutch ace Adrie de Vries stepping in for the ride, Lamool looks to have a massive task here.

SEVENTH SKY 2331
Jockey: Andreas Starke
Trainer: Peter Schiergen
Peter Schiergen is sometimes known for being quite bullish about the chances of his horses, however the hype surrounding Seventh Skys debut at Hoppegarten in May was almost beyond belief as the horse was backed in from 5-2 to an incredible 1/2. Despite the optimism, the horse could only finish second, and didn’t break his maiden tag until his fourth and most recent race, a Listed event at Hannover. However, that victory meant that Seventh Sky is the only horse in the field to have won over the Derby distance, and the fact that stable jockey Andrasch Starke has picked Seventh Sky over the five other Schiergen trained runners is a big plus. However, I still think the horse is short of top class and has plenty to prove, especially as Supersonic Flight, second in the Hannover race, has a 3 kg (6 lbs) pull for just 1 1/2 lengths.

VAL MONDO 44-312
Jockey: Ioritz Mendizabal
Trainer: Uwe Ostmann
Veteran trainer Uwe Ostmann has a fine recroed in the German Derby, and although Val Mondo is likely to be a big outsider, this horse should not be overlooked. Improved on his 2 year old form when winning a conditions race at Cologne (Seventh Sky 4 1/2 lengths back in third) before a short head second to Russian Tango in the Bremen Derby Trial. With that rival having had a less than ideal build up to the race, Val Mondo could be the surprise package of the race, and although regular jockey Andreas Helfenbein is injured, Ostmann has secured the services of top French based rider Ioritz Mendizabal. The German Derby has a habit of throwing up an outsider in the top 3, and Val Mondo could be the one this year.

JAMMY SHOT 3-13
Jockey: Mirco Demuro
Trainer: Andreas Woehler
Finishe behind Seventh Sky and Supersonic Flight in the Hannover Derby Trial, and although has a 3 kg (6 lbs) pull for 3 lengths with Seventh Sky, is unlikely to reverse the form with Supersonic Flight.

SIR LANDO 130-214
Jockey: Jimmy Fortune
Trainer: Wido Neuroth (NOR)
The third overseas raider, Norwegian trained Sir Lando is hoping to emulate stablemate Appel Au Maitre, who finished an excellent fourth in the 2007 German Derby. However, Sir Lando could only finish fourth in the Bremen Derby Trial behind Russian Tango and Val Mondo. Has won a couple of race in his homeland, but doesn’t look up to this despite an interesting jockey booking.

LYSSIO 116
Jockey: Johan Victoire
Trainer: Peter Schiergen
Won two minor events at Cologne and Hannover before having his limitations exposed when a well beaten sixth in the Bremen Derby Trial and looks to have too much to do here.

VERDICT:
A terrific turnout for the 2010 German Derby, and with the exception of the unbeaten Jens Hirschberger trained Scorcher, all the top German trained middle distance 3 year old colts are there. However, they may have to play second fiddle to the Mark Johnston trained Monterosso, whose fourth in the Irish Derby gives him a huge chance here. Zazou looks to be the best of the home contingent whislt the previously unbeaten Scalo could go close if given a clear run, someting he didn’t get last time out. Val Mondo and Ustilago are interesting outsiders, whilst Neatico could be interesting if he stays the distance. Prediction:

1st – 1 MONTEROSSO
2nd – 2 ZAZOU
3rd – 18 VAL MONDO
4th – 4 SCALO
5th – 9 USTILAGO
6th – 3 BUZZWORD
7th – 7 NEATICO