Paddy Power Chase 2016

One of my favourite races of the season, and thankfully the last couple of seasons have been more fruitful after a long barren spell in it. It sometimes gets a bit overshadowed The Festive Period, by the likes of The King George, The Welsh National, and The Lexus, but it’s always a cracker, and this year looks no different.

After that lean spell, Cause of Causes would have been a 4 figure winner for me 3 years ago, but he got done by a nostril, leaving me with place returns. Having last backed the winner over 10 years ago with World Wide Web, things finally turned properly last year, and an Ante-Post punt on Minella Foru at 20’s, more than paid for Christmas.

A quick scan of the entries though would suggest though that I’ll be doing well to repeat last years success, and it’s a cracking line up in prospect.

Full list of entries………..

http://www.racingpost.com/horses2/cards/card.sd?race_id=665183&r_date=2016-12-27&big_race=Y&raceTabs=#raceTabs=lc_

Where to start???

Gordon Elliot is farming these big chases in Ireland just now, so he’s the obvious place to start, but you also have to look closely at JP/Gigginstown runners, and he has many who fall into that bracket, not to mention likely sorts in other ownership, so it’s not too easy. Willie Mullins landed this 3 years ago, so although he sometimes has a smaller than usual entry for these types of races, it would appear to be one he can target now and then.

It’s also a race that is always littered with “Cliff” horses of mine, so common sense would dictate that it would make sense to sit back and wait, and that it might be a bit foolish to try and dig one out…….so, I’ll give it a go

I’ll try to concentrate on a “select few”, but there are 57 to choose from????? I’ll work my way down in weight order.

Otago Trail – One of my “notebook” horses from last season, after a very, very impressive win at Chepstow in the mud, one which had “big staying chase” written all over it. I thought he’d be Welsh National bound, but he didn’t get an entry, and instead won just a bit cosily in The Rehearsal Chase at Newcastle last week. There’s no doubt more to come, and I’m hoping that it’s Aintree, as I’m on at huge odds. He also holds an entry for The Lexus, but if he came here, top weight wouldn’t worry me. I do hope he heads elsewhere though. 20’s

Cause of Causes – If it weren’t for Seeyouatmidnight, this boy would be my favourite horse in training by a stretch. He’s been so profitable to follow, but as he appears to be treading that well known path this year of getting his mark down, then I’ll pass him over for this, and wait for the usual Cheltenham/Aintree double. 25’s

Gallant Oscar – A bit of a forgotten horse, and he looks Aintree bound to me again this year, as he was unlucky in The National last year, with a soft “unseat” when travelling well. Trainer landed this 2 years ago, so he merits respect should he line up, as Tony Martin only has one other entered, and that’s White Arm, who’s bottom of the pile. 14’s

Pleasant Company – Another “notebook” horse of mine last year, and he did me a huge turn at The Punchestown Festival in the spring, winning a very competitive handicap in good style. There’s surely more to come from his current mark, and quite simply, he’s a big danger wherever he pops up this season. I’ve a feeling he’ll figure at either Cheltenham or Aintree, but if things don’t go to plan, he’ll surely head for The Bet365 Gold Cup in April. Can’t possibly rule out. 14’s

Shutthefrontdoor – A real old favourite of mine, and though he’s cost me a few quid, I’m willing to forgive him. His comeback “run” at Aintree suggested he was being laid out for something, and as Jonjo has landed this before, then he can’t be ignored here. I’ve a few quid on him for The Unicoin Handicap at Cheltenham on Friday, and I’ll be watching with interest with this prize in mind. Very interesting entry. 25’s

Ucello Conti – Runner up in this last year, and followed up with a 3rd in The Thyestes, a 6th in The National, and a 4th in The Becher. Needs to dig out more to win, but he’s another on a nice mark, and not a big surprise to see him head the betting at 7’s with The Sponsor. 7’s

Noble Endeavour – Definitely a horse to have a second look at. Would have made the frame in The 4 Miler at The Festival but for coming down at the second last, and was a real eyecatcher in The Troytown last week. He’s in here off of 143, and there is no way he’s a 143 horse. Unfortunately he’s priced accordingly. 10’s

Rogue Angel & Thunder and Roses – Last 2 winners of The Irish National, and both in the ownership of Gigginstown. Rogue Angel is Aintree bound this season, and ran adequately in The Becher, after a series of poorer efforts. I’ve mentioned in other races that he’s getting around the kind of mark which would see him miss out at Aintree, and connections will obviously know that. Difficult to recommend on recent runs, but no surprise should he bounce back. He’s very overpriced. Thunder and Roses ran a cracker at the weekend at Fairyhouse, and I might just pass him over here, as I think he’s tailor made for a repeat big for Irish National glory back there in the spring. This might be too sharp. 33’s (RA) 20’s (T&R)

Bless The Wings – Plenty of miles on the clock for this 11 year old, but ran a decent race in The Troytown, his first to take note of, since his close second to Rogue Angel at Fairyhouse. Coming back down the weights, and very possible he could make the frame here. 33’s

Sambremont – The choice of Ruby Walsh in The Troytown, but he made little impression, getting brought down after a few mistakes himself. There’s no doubt more to come from him, but he really does need to start producing for WPM. 16’s

Stellar Notion – I’m always wary of runners representing the De Bromhead/Brookhouse partnership, they tend to place them well, and his second in The Munster National, not to mention his form overall since switching yards, makes him a horse who is impossible to ignore here. 16’s

Killer Miller – Very popular in the run up to The Troytown, and for a while it looked like he was going to justify that support. He eventually weakened out of it close to home, but he shaped as if he’d have more to offer, and he may just be JP’s #1 dart. The price would suggest the sponsors are taking no chances this time. 16’s

Venitien De Mai – Bags of promise last year, and followed that up with an excellent 5th in The Troytown. There doesn’t appear to be too many negatives with him, and you could argue the 20’s is fair, certainly off the back of that run at Navan. 20’s

Abolitionist – Another who ran with great credit in The Troytown, only finding the very impressive Empire of Dirt too good. They’ve clearly got a live one on their hands, and got backed from 40’s in the morning, to 16’s, a gamble which so nearly paid off. He’s hardly been hammered for that, and he ain’t 40’s this time around, but he’s still big. 20’s

Dromnea – I wanted to see him in here, he’s a horse I really like, and I wasn’t disappointed. He’s been keeping decent company, and usually runs his race. The owners love a runner in The National, a race for which he’s got no chance of making off his current mark, and I reckon the season will be geared around getting him there. He’s a big price, despite running well in this last year. Don’t write him off. 25’s

Sizing Coal – Fell in The Becher, but happy to forgive him that, and he looked a natural for this beforehand. 25’s

The Job Is Right – A real old favourite of mine, and was only 2 years ago that he made the frame in this, and had many other big runs in similar races to this. Even I’ve abandoned him now though, and he looks to have fallen out of love with it. Will be hard to take if he wins. He’s one of the few who looks underpriced. 25’s

Ned Stark – Not a lot went right for him since his very promising early days with Alan King. I’ve kept tabs on him though, and his last run at Newbury was a step forward. He’s now with Gordon Elliot, and he could be just the man for him. He’s shortlist material, and he always has been since I heard this was the plan. On the face of it, underpriced on what he’s actually achieved, but I understand their caution. 14’s

Captain von Trappe – Sigh, my biggest loser of the season so far, when he fell in The Troytown. He’d never have beaten the winner that day, but I still reckon he’d have made the frame, had he stood up. That was off the back of another spill, and just this weekend, a mistake at the second last, cost him any chance of victory at Fairyhouse. He might have been at the end of his tether though at that trip, and if jumping holds out here, and if in the same mood, he could be worth risking yet again. I will bet him, as I think he’s got loads in hand off his current mark, so I might as well go in just now, and take the price, a price which is huge from what we saw on Sunday. 33’s

Folsom Blue – His 3rd in this last season was one of the highlights of an excellent campaign, but nothing has went right since. Gambled heavily for The Kerry National, but he flopped big time, and not really did much since. He could bounce back here, he’s done enough in the past to suggest he could, but he really is risky, and I’d be wanting more than the current price. 20’s

It Came To Pass – Former Hunter Chaser who looks just the type to thrive in this grade. Well fancied for The Foxhunter at Cheltenham, where he fell, and I suspect that he’ll be miles ahead of his current mark. The sponsors share the same view, going by his price. 16’s

Rightville Boy – Followed up his excellent second in The Kerry National, with another solid show in The Munster equivalent. Should have more to offer, and makes some each way appeal, there’s certainly some juice in his price. Connections must rate him, as he’s got an entry for the highly competitive Lavazza Gold Cup at Ascot next week. 33’s

Potters Cross – After a great start to the season, the Rebecca Curtis yard appears to be having a quieter time of it now. Potters did run a fine race at Chepstow at the weekend though, and this followed a win at the same track last month. Interesting that he didn’t get an entry for The Welsh National, and I’d give him a live chance here. 33’s

The Crafty Butcher – A relatively unknown WPM inmate, but going by his last run, where he really caught the eye, that won’t be the case for long. Looks one to keep on side of, he’s joint second favourite for this, and if he doesn’t sneak in here, keep him in mind for future targets. 10’s

Sonny B – Just failed to make the cut for The Troytown, but despite being a rank outsider for that, I thought he’d have ran well. Very unlucky in his last run, where he met all sort of trouble. Probably pushing it for win purposes, even if he did get in, but nonetheless, he’s worthy of a mention, as he looks a winner in waiting. 25’s

Riverside City – A shame that he’s struggling to make the cut, as he ran his best race for a while on Sunday, offering encouragement for the first time since his win in The 2015 Troytown. 25’s

Whatareudoingtome – Second bottom of the weights, so another who faces a near impossible task to make it. He’s another who warrants a mention though, as he has age on his side, and it may be next season that he’ll be feature more prominently for contests like this. 50’s

A really tough race then, not just for those taking part, but also for those trying to dig out the winner.

Those at the head of the market, appear to deserve to be there, but as usual, I’ll try to look elsewhere.

I had Dromnea & Ned Stark on the shortlist for this for a while, and I’m considering them both. At the shorter price though, I just favour Ned Stark, and he’s still a very strong fancy. I’m hoping Pleasant Company goes elsewhere, and hoping that Potters Cross doesn’t get in, as they’re muddying the water for me.

Of the rest, well Rogue Angel is a ridiculous price at 33’s, while Shutthfrontdoor has to be considered at the 25’s, this could well be the plan. I’ll bet Captain Von Trappe as well, not just because he’s becoming a “cliff” horse, but at this trip, he’s, jumping issues aside, no 33-1 shot, certainly not from what we saw at the weekend.

Ned Stark 14’s
Shutthefrontdoor 25’s
Rogue Angel 33’s
Captain Von Trappe 33’s

all look the pick to me at this stage, but still to determine who’d be my #1. It may just turn out to be Captain Von Trappe, or Shutthefrontdoor.

GL