Irish National 2018

Fantastic set of entries, and not for the first time, looks as good, if not better, than the list of entries for Aintree.

https://www.racingpost.com/racecards/182/fairyhouse/2018-04-02/695192

There’s the small matter of Cheltenham to contend with first, and several of these might also have Aintree as the main target, so very difficult to select anything here, with any real conviction. Like last year, the entries are dominated by Gigginstown, and hopefully there silks won’t be carried by half the field this time, but I doubt it.

94 Entries in total, but as I said, early early days, and these are a few that jump out, but as the weeks progress, I’m sure that list will get longer.

Weights frames, and the race is priced up with Bet365, and Boylepsorts.

Edwulf – Looks seriously overpriced in The Gold Cup, which is surely his main target, but he looks as if he is finally fulfilling his potential after his health scare last year. Jumping has looked more assured this year, and not got close to the credit he deserves for his Leapordstown win. Still, it would be a bit of a surprise to actually see him trap here. 25’s

Empire of Dirt – It remains a mystery why he was sent to The Ryanair last year, rather that The Gold Cup, but he did, and he ran no sort of race. To be fair to him, he clearly wasn’t right at Cheltenham, and it was the same at Aintree, but that begs the question, is he ok now?? Not seen since Aintree, and they’d need to get a run into him surely. Missed a few engagements this term, and not getting any younger. On his Troytown form, a real player, but enough question marks for now. Might get a few of those questions answered in The Bobbyjo 33’s

Bachasson – Really really like this horse. Long term fancy of mine for this years Gold Cup, and by the start of the season, easily my #1 hope, but although he’s still in there, the lack of news on that front is a concern. First came to light last winter at Gowran Park, winning in a canter against decent opposition, and after swerving Cheltenham, he’s came out and won without breaking sweat twice this season so far. There’s a chance he could go to Aintree, and I remain “only hopeful” about Cheltenham. He’s very good though, and there must surely be a plan with him. As much as I really like him, I’m not convinced that that “plan” will see him head here. 33’s

American – Big hope of mine for The Ladbroke, but everything that could go wrong that day, went wrong, and after travelling well for a long way in The Cotswold Chase, he capitulated very tamely. There is though, a chance that that was actually a step in the right direction at Cheltenham, and from a yard who’re not shy of a runner in this, he’s a horse who could find conditions to his liking here. Obviously fragile, and very risk Ante-Post, but not without a chance. 20’s

Champagne West – His win in The Thyestes last January, was the best performance of the season, but little has went right since. Found out at Cheltenham and Punchestown at the tail of the season, he’s barely went a yard this time around. He’s, at the very least, better than that, and as he plummets down the weights as a result, only 3 lbs higher than in The Thyestes, then he’s of some interest here. He’s a very nice price too. 50’s

Alpha Des Obeaux – After the disappointment of the 16/17 season, I think this boy has acquitted himself well enough this term, and he managed to bag The Clonmel Oils Chase. He looks a bit “plotty” to me, though I have the suspicion that any plot will involve Aintree. Chance if he goes here though, and on a nice enough mark. The main worry with him, remains his history of bleeding. 25’s

Al Boum Photo – He looks a really promising sort, and certainly one of the more interesting entries. Good second behind Monalee last time, but might just be a bit of a surprise if he actually ran here. 20’s

Invitation Only – At the start of the season he was my #1 hope for this, and nice to see him in here. More importantly, nice to see him in here on what looks like a very fair mark. I’m not convinced that his campaign suggests he’ll actually run, but he remains near the top of my list. I think the trip will bring the best out in him. 16’s

Monbeg Notorious – Not surprisingly near the head of the market, and a very promising Elliot/Giggs prospect. Could be Cheltenham bound first of all though, with The National Hunt Chase seemingly high on the agenda. Could be heading for a future in Graded Company, and though potentially coming here off of 3 tough races, he’s already landed The Thyestes and The Ten Up, his chances look obvious. I thought he might have been favourite. 14’s

Dounikos – Another Elliot/Giggs prospect, and very much like Monbeg, another who I could see go the Graded route. Been in the best of form this term, certainly can’t crab his fourth behind Monalee last time, and he looks one of the more likely one from this, to be feared, owner and trainer combo. His chances should become clearer if he takes up any engagements at The Festival. 20’s

Bellshill – Like Invitation Only, he’s owned by Graham Wylie, and he’s another very smart prospect here for the owner. Doesn’t have many miles on the clock over fences, but when last seen, he was chasing home Might Bite and Whisper in The RSA. He looks on a dangerous mark, and must be given serious respect here. The Aintree entry would give some concern for anyone playing just now, but ahead of his run in The Bobbyjo, he looks a fair price. 25’s

Mossback – Yet another from “that” Trainer/Owner combo, and I really liked the attitude he showed in The Ten Up. Didn’t give in, and he’ll need that kind of attitude here. Another who’s plans should be clearer after Cheltenham, and if he can just brush up on his jumping slightly, another interesting/confusing contender. A little surprised he’s as big. 25’s

Rathvinden – Probably beaten when unseating behind Monalee last time, and had no luck the time before, he remains a horse with plenty of potential. He’s had an interrupted career, but at the start of the season, I thought he was one of the more interesting novices. Yet another who looks bound for The 4 Miler at The Festival. I can see him going here, and although maybe not the most obvious from the yard, he’s got to be looked at. 25’s

Tiger Roll – One of my very favourites, and off this mark, he could pick them up and carry them (if they wanted him to), but it looks very much like Aintree is the plan. 20’s

A Genie In A Bottle – This Noel Meade inamte is one of the most interesting of the Giggs runners to me. I think he’s, potentially anyway, way ahead of his mark. From what I’ve seen of him, his last two runs have not seen him pushed to the limit, and he may be mapped out for something like this. Well weighted, no stranger to big fields, and though I’m not the biggest fan of the yard, should he trap here or at Aintree, I think he’s a player. One of my stronger fancies, and a nice price. 33’s

Jury Duty – A hard one to weigh up. I think his last two runs give conflicting evidence as to whether or not he wants this test or not, but what isn’t up for debate is that the ability is there. Another who seems to be “4 Miler Bound”, and that should tell us more about him. From the right yard, and though I wouldn’t be interested in him right now, it would be a different matter if he line up here. 25’s

The Storyteller – Hardly giving away any state secrets here, one of the biggest talking horses last year, and clearly a horse who’ll have been campaigned with one target in mind. What is the target though? Is it this? Is it The RSA. Is it The Ultima, or one of the other handicaps, either over fences or hurdles. Or is is The Oaks??? I’ve no idea, but he’s been geared up for something. I’ll be betting him this spring wherever he ends up. That’s the crucial part “wherever he ends up”. Wouldn’t bet him Ante-Post without a wee “NRNB” attached. 20’s

Any Second Now – Yes, the trip is certainly an unknown, but he’s been keeping the best of company, and most importantly, he hasn’t been disgraced at all. Experience would also be a concern, he’s only 6, and certainly not used to a big field slog like this, but he just jumps out at me. He’s been on my radar for a while now, and if I’m being honest, I didn’t expect to see him here, but I can see Ted Walsh letting him take his chance, and he’s immediate shortlist material. In fact, I’m close to betting him, and his price tells it’s own story. 20’s

Fagan – Massive fan of this horse, and not easy to forget his close second to Unkowhatimeanharry in The Albert Bartlett. Last season was a write off, but he’s looked back to normal this term. I’m keen on him for The National Hunt Chase, but just a little concerned that Rathvinden, in the same ownership, also appears to be heading there. Well supported for that race this week, and mentioned in Elliots Betfair Blog, but just slightly concerning was his omission from the stable tour. Assuming all is well, he could run a big race here. 25’s

Kemboy – WPM entry who still holds an entry in The Arkle. He looks all potential at the moment, and his best days still ahead of him, but if he did appear in this, which I very much doubt, then he’d be a hard one to crab. Surely not though? Firms taking no chances mind. 20’s

Pleasant Company – One of my favourite staying chasers at the moment, and always gets a good word. Still looks on a fair mark, and either here or Aintree will be the season plan. Simply put, a serious player whichever race he runs in. 20’s

Polidam – Already becoming something of an enigma here, and I’m no closer to knowing his best trip. Reportedly purchased for Aintree, he still has to convince he wants a test like that. Did the business at Navan in Decemberm but race doesn’t read as well now. A proper unknown. 33’s

De Plotting Shed – I really do think, and he does have his detractors, that this boy has his fair share of ability, and that he is crying out for something like this. I wanted to see him here, and he gets the entry. Cheltenham bound first of all, but I’m very very interested in him already for this. Price seems fair. 25’s

Mall Dini – I’ve discussed this horse loads of times, particularly last year. He’s considerably higher profile now, and I don’t think we’ve seen the best of him here. I’ve bet him big odds for Kim Muir & National Hunt Chase, and I’m expecting a big run from him at Cheltenham. I don’t know if he really wants turned out as quick, but it’s impossible to be negative about him here. Wait and see job for him. Clear favourite with Boyles. 12’s

Shattered Love – She’s yet another Elliot/Giggs entrant, so you know the drill. Not much more I need say now, other than off of 143, she must have a serious serious chance. Quickly on to the shortlist. 25’s looks mad. The biggest problem with her, and with so many horses to juggle, is that they’ll concentrate on a nice mares pot. 25’s

Folsom Blue – I feel as if I’ve been singing this boys praises for years, and he’s a proper favourite. You couldn’t fail to be impressed by his attitude last week, and though he does thrown in the odd howler, he’s just a very likeable type. The rise in the weights makes it tougher, and though I wouldn’t quite have him joint favourite, you at least know this is the sole target. 12’s

Isleofhopeandreams – Reeled in by Folsom Blue last week, when looking home and hosed. Couldn’t have had him on my mind that day, but he fair proved me wrong, and though his overall profile should have the pen going straight through his chances, that run last time changes things here just a tad. 25’s

Killaro Boy – Highly unlikely that he’ll be good enough here, not to mention that he’ll struggle to get in, but his win here last year suggested he has a good prize in him, and I’d be interested if he made it. A very interesting horse this.50’s

Jetstream Jack – I was really keen on him for The Thyestes last year, but he fell when beaten, and ain’t been seen since. He remains of interest, but I’d, ideally, like to see some confirmation of wellbeing. This, on his best form, isn’t beyond him. 25’s

Thunder and Roses – Former winner, lurking on a handy mark, and judged on how he was running at Aintree last year when brought down, the spring just might be the time to catch him. Wish I had this mindset this winter, as lost a couple of pounds on him, but I’m willing to forgive him, and rate his chances here. big disparity in his price. 33’s

Bless The Wings – Too many big runs to mention, but even as a 13 year old, I’d be keen on him placing, but he’ll surely head to Aintree. 20’s

Pairofbrowneyes – Not the most obvious, and the trip would raise concerns, but I’ve always thought he was better than he’s shown, and the switch to the Mullins Camp, could be key. A proper dark horse, and I’m keen on him. 50’s

Sutton Manor – At this stage, he looks the one for me from the Elliot/Giggs camp. He’s got the connections, he’s got the form for me, he’s got the ability, and crucially, he’s got the mark. He also has the price. Key player. 33’s

Vieux Morvan – His first run for Joseph O’Brien was very encouraging, in The Paddy Power at Christmas, and confirmed his wellbeing at The Dublin Festival. I don’t think stamina did him last time, more meeting a “live one”, and I think he has plenty to offer. I think he’d be ideal at Cheltenham. Looks unlikely to get in at Aintree, so he’ll surely take his chance here, and is a nice Ante-Post Price. No, he’s a crazy Ante-Post price. 40’s

Oscar Knight – Question marks for sure, he was an early casualty in this last year, and flopped in The Paddy Power, but I’ll never be in a rush to write him off in something like this. 20’s

Pylonthepressure – He was more than decent as a Novice Hurdler, and after a spell on the sidelines, he looks on the road back. I was very impressed with how he won last time, and I’ve bet him for both The RSA, and The National Hunt Chase. I thought his win last time would have caught peoples attention, but not even a a ripple. he’s way down the weights here to be fair, but I give him a live chance. 25’s

As I said then, a quality entry, and the likes of Squouateur, Scoir Mear, and Patricks Park, look to have their work cut out.

So many things to happen before this, and keeping the money in my pocket, for now, but this would be a very tentative early shortlist……

Any Second Now
Bachasson
Champagne West
Invitation Only
Pairofbrowneyes
Pylonthepressure
Sutton Manor
That Elliot/Gigginstown horse.
Vieux Morvan

If pressed, then Any Second Now or Sutton Manor as my #1, with Pylonthepressure or Vieux Morvan at the prices, but the money stays in the pocket for now. Considering the length of that shortlist, that seems the sensible route for now.

GL