Ayr Gold Cup 2017

One of the biggest betting races of the year, and one of my very favourite Flat Races. Had many a good day in it, and even better when you’re there on track, and I might just head along this year.

Just the 226 entries to work through…………….

https://www.racingpost.com/racecards/3/ayr/2017-09-23/681790

….and to say it’s hard to make an early call, would obviously be a bit of an understatement, and there’s every chance that a few contenders could emerge from Ripon on Saturday. Few firms have priced up though, so no harm in an early look

Heading the market at the moment are Scorching Heat, and Ekhtiyaar, and that seems fair enough, as they’re both impressive winners recently. Scorching Heat would have to win very soon, and impressively, to get in here, but no such problems for Ekhtiyaar, and he looks good value for his 6lb rise from last time, and he has to be given some serious consideration here. Very nice 3yo who clearly has a future, and though I haven’t had a penny on him yet, he’s continued to impress me. Worthy of his position at the head of the market.

Not far off favouritism, and a real pal of mine, is last years runner up, Growl. He’s looked as good as ever this year, and plenty of money about for him in this weekends Great St Wilfrid. The market would suggest he’s heading there, and any semblance of a good run there will surely see the 16’s for him here, disappear. Just behind him last year, was another old pal, in the shape of Hoof It. He’s done me a few favours over the years, and though getting on now, he’ll come here relatively fresh, and showed plenty of spark in The Stewards Cup. He’s touch and go to get in though, and should he make it, he’ll make plenty of appeal when the 6 places become available.

Not surprisingly, those ahead of Hoof It in The Stewards Cup, and not to mention a good few who were down the field, could reappear here. Along with Growl, Lancelot Du Lac, Aeolus, Upstaging, and Shanghai Glory, all ran screamers at Goodwood, and will be popular here, justifiably, but it’s one who was ultimately disappointing, who I keep going back to, namely Projection. He first caught the eye last year at Goodwood, and did little wrong in The Wokingham. His poor run last time is obviously a concern, as is the fact that his mark remains unaltered, but I just think that at 25’s with Bet365, he represents a bit of value.

Another recent winner, Tim Easterby’s Golden Apollo looks perfect for this as well, and at 20-1, he’ll surely be appealing to a few, and the 20’s looks generous. This is surely the long term plan.

Orions Bow looked as good as ever last month at Newcastle, though this was slightly tempered by a less impressive showing at Ascot next time. He made big strides last term, and I still have faith in him. Although he was down the field in this last year, he’ll come here off of the same mark as when he was a strong runner up in The Stewards Cup last term, and the more I look at him, the more I reckon he might just have been laid out for this. Very definitely considered at 20’s.

Growl won’t be the only one putting his credential on the line at Ripon this weekend, and one I’m coming around to for the Great St Wilfrid, is Mattmu. He’s caught the eye on more than once occasion in the past, and doesn’t appear to have any significant ground concerns, so he is one of the more attractive propositions from an each way stance. He looks potentially very big at 33’s, and there’s a good chance we’ll see where he’s at on Saturday, having had a fairly long lay off. I still like Edward Lewis and Vibrant Chords for Ripon as well, and a good run there could see them make a mockery of the 40’s and 33’s respectively on offer here. Win or lose on Saturday, those prices still look big to me. My eyes will be everywhere with these 3 on Saturday, and it won’t take much encouragement for me to risk one of them off the back a solid run. This could also apply to half the field on Saturday, with not surprisingly, a good number of them also holding an entry for Ayr.

Richard Fahey has, what looks like, about 100 entered, and god knows which ones will be primed for this, but along with Growl, I think Eastern Impact, Withernsea, who’s very ground dependent, and particularly The Wagon Wheel all make some serious appeal.

One who’s touch and go to get in is Von Blucher, and after showing well for a way in The Hunt Cup, he eventually faded away. I had a couple of quid on him Ante-Post for that, and a bit more for The Bunbury Cup, where he ran a huge race finishing 6th, getting me a right few bob at the 50’s. I was chuffed to bits with him that day, understandably, and should he scrape in, I’ll be with him again. He looks worth a try at this trip. Like Hoof It, he looks one to wait on until Final Decs are known, and as much as I was happy to collect from him at Newmarket, I did throw away a couple of quid at the big prices Ante-Post, but got stung by the 4 places. His price should hold surely, and I’ll go in for 6 places if he goes.

If pushed though, the one I think who might be worth a risk at this stage, is Johnny Barnes. Wasn’t far away in this last year, meeting some traffic problems before finishing a very creditable 8th, considering the circumstances, and he looked as good as ever last time too. Gosden can get him here 4lb’s lower than last term, and that could make a big difference. Probably wouldn’t want it too fast, but I’d be surprised if there isn’t enough juice for him, and he’s my #1 fancy at the moment.

Any race which has 226 entries is not one to go too mad on early, and clearly many of those lower down will be targetted for The Consolation Races anyway, but I thought the race was worth an early look. Talking of those consolation races, I’d be very interested to see if The Feathered Nest turned up, but one thing at a time, and I’ll look at those races later.

No money down yet, which might be wise, but that could change dramatically on Saturday, and I’m very interested in Edward Lewis, Vibrant Chords, and Mattmu at Ripon, with Ayr in mind, while, as mentioned, Hoof It, and Von Blucher would make serious each way appeal on the day.

Ekhtiyaar and Growl deserve there place near the head of the marker, while Projection and Orions Bow look overpriced, and could easily bounce back, but the one I’m very close to siding with is Johnny Barnes, and he looks very good value at 25’s.

Early early days…..

GL