Jan 14, 2018 at 10:58 #1337432
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Acapella Bourgeois running over 2 mile 1 furlong today at Fairyhouse. You would imagine he would be nowhere near quick enough for 2 mile 1 furlong. Do you reckon they are trying to get his mark down with this race in mind?
If he runs like a pig today over 2 mile 1 furlong, how much will Phil penalise him? Will he take into account that it’s not his ideal trip?Jan 14, 2018 at 21:29 #1337491
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AB burst blood vessels today.Jan 14, 2018 at 21:31 #1337492
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Good spot on the dodgy race selection today… Doesn’t change the fact that he has no from on good Spring ground though does it?
And yet, and yet… The rumours from the yard say he’s a machineJan 14, 2018 at 21:49 #1337493
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More than rumours I’d say. Would take some serious cash to keep forcing him down to the crazy SPs he keeps going off at.Jan 14, 2018 at 23:50 #1337505
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I’d say the main reason why he has started at such short prices is because most horses who have moved from Sandra Hughes have improved and bookmakers were scared of the same thing happening with AB. In relation to his form it looks to me like he is more effective over 2.5 miles than 3 miles. He beat road to respect by a furlong in that strange race but that is his only piece of worthwhile form over 3 miles. Ryanair or a 2.5 mile handicap is the place for him. I think it was worth a try for him at 2 miles today but It was unfortunate that he bled.
What are the conditions for this race at Cheltenham?Jan 17, 2018 at 01:26 #1337733
Got a real Win, Lose, Win, Lose, Win, Lose run going in this race, so after taking a beating in it last year, hopeful of better this time around.
First name that comes to mind for me in this race is Tiger Roll. Runaway winner of The Munster National and National Hunt Chase last season, and “slightly better” than we’ve seen so far this season. My main hope for The Grand National, but first things first, he’ll surely have a race at The Festival to contend with first. He looks as if he’ll be Cross Country bound, and I’ve bet him for that anyway, but off his current mark, I think he’d be a big player here, as unlikely as it looks at the moment. Not quoted
Go Conquer ran a fine race in this year, and though higher in the weights this time around, that rise looks fair. I thought he was a nice enough horse last term, but he never really “grabbed me”. That changed at Ascot though, a few months back, and I thought that was an outstanding performance. Entered for The Skybet, and a midfield finish there would be a perfect prep for this. Another I’m very keen on for Aintree, and he has to come into this. 25’s
In the same ownership as Go Conquer is Three Faces West. He was one of the most improved horses in training last term, and I genuinely believed, before injury struck, that he was destined for Graded Company. Trainer likes a go in this, and I’d be surprised if he doesn’t get an entry. n/q
His runs over 3 Miles haven’t been that impressive, but I think that it would be foolish to write Ballyalton off. I just have a hunch that he might head here. Boasts Festival form, and he’s surely better than he showed at the weekend anyway, regardless of the trip he was attempting. Runs well here, and I really think he could end up here. n/q
Another who’s surely better than he was at the weekend, in the same race as Ballyalton, is On Tour. After a nice win at Aintree, followed by unseating when he was cantering at Newbury, he has, erm, been handled carefully since. Connections had Buywise make the frame in this last year, and this is surely the plan (maybe for Buywise as well come to think of it). n/q
Another horse who took in that race at Kempton was The Young Master, and he’s another who’s made the frame in this. That was two years back, and he was also sixth last year. Woefully out of form since that spring of 2016, he did show a bit more at the weekend, and he’s surely a certainty to run in this, where he’ll come on a significantly lower mark than previous years. Definite dark horse at 33’s
The last 2 renewals have been won by Un Temps Pour Tout, but could connections plan this route for their Vieux Lion Rouge. I think they could, the trip is perfect, and if The National isn’t the priority this year, then this looks where they’ll target him, as until last year, he had been a Festival regular. We’ll have more of an idea with him if he takes his chance in The Peter Marsh. n/q (surprisingly)
Seeyouatmidnight is on the way back, and both his mark, and the trip look perfect, but not convinced the trainer will send him to The Festival, and worth seeing how he is after a long layoff. (n/q)
Nicky Henderson usually has a live one in this, and the likes of Gold Present (16’s), and O O Seven (n/q) will surely be considered, but at 33’s, recent course winner Vyta Du Roc, looks incredibly overpriced. The perfect race to take in, en-route to Aintree, and that price just looks wrong to me.
Cogry didn’t do too much wrong at the weekend, and he hasn’t done that much wrong the last year either. The price of 33’s also looks fair for him, as he only found another outstanding ride from Bryony Frost getting in the way at Warwick, and he’ll bring course form here too.
On the subject of Bryony Frost, she’ll surely be on something for Nicholls, especially with that claim, and the likes of Ptit Zig (n/q), or Frodon (20’s) look likely candidates at this stage.
JP is no stranger to go at this race, and of his contingent, the long absent Pendra (25’s) or Regal Encore (33’s) spring to mind, but I’d like to see what he puts in first, and Edwulf could be one from across The Irish Sea to consider.
As well as Tiger Roll and Edwulf, there are other Irish contenders catching the eye (I have about a dozen on the radar), but the other ones worth a mention at the moment are Mala Beach, Ucello Conti, and my old pal Pleasant Company, all at 25’s, and General Principle, who’s at a very fair 33’s.
Usual minefield then, and not crying out for an early go, but some of the prices mentioned could look crazy on the day. Definitely no bet, until the entry stage at the very least, or alternatively, a good price can be nabbed NRNB.Jan 17, 2018 at 03:17 #1337735
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Good write up VTC. You know there’s not too long til the festival when your handicap write ups begin.
Antepost on handicaps isn’t my thing but the standouts in the betting for me are:
– Singlefarmpayment who i have backed every race this season (bar his seasonal debut which I hoped he wouldn’t be ready for).
– Gold Present who has ran well at the festival before. Thought he was very unlucky last year and could go here before running in the National you’d assume.
– Mall Dini. 16/1 NRNB isn’t a bad bet I think. He is likely to get good ground which he likes and ran really well two years ago at this meeting. This race – the track and trip – would be right up his street.
If I was to have a bet right now, it would definitely be on Mall Dini.Jan 18, 2018 at 00:13 #1337857
Cheers MoM, great time of year, as the entries start to come out, love it.
I was hoping Gold Present went Gold Cup, but not to be, though haven’t given up hope of The Ryanair for him. I still think SFP will go Gold Cup with the right run in The Cotswold.
Mall Dini, a much discussed horse back in the day between myself and Stilvi, and no surprise to see him figure now. I’ve went for him in Kim Muir (not my #1), but he could pop up in a number of races, but wherever he goes, he’s one to take seriously. Good luck with him, and the others too.Jan 18, 2018 at 08:55 #1337869
Fran the manParticipant
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Would there be no chance the Young master could go the Kim Muir route? Dropped that far in the weights he’d get in and not be top weight. Will have no issues with the extra furlong over the Ultima and has the bonus of his regular partner being an Amateur.
You have me doubting myselfJan 18, 2018 at 16:32 #1337924
Definitely Fran, he’d sneak in easily, and would have as live a chance in that, as he does in The Ultima. I could see SWC keeping him to The Ultima though, as he would be guaranteed a ride from someone else in The Kim Muir, freeing himself up for TYM on Day 1.Feb 8, 2018 at 00:01 #1341206
Seems I was wrong about the trainers plans for Seeyouatmidnight, and this looks the preferred option for him, en-route to Aintree. Should be back out later this month, and hopefully he retains plenty of ability.Feb 18, 2018 at 16:23 #1342935
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I Have went For Yanworth at 14-1 to go with Noble Endeavour at 25-1 ewFeb 18, 2018 at 16:45 #1342939
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I’m perplexed by Alan King saying Yanworth could well end up in this given his mark of 149. If King thinks he’s well ahead of that mark then I can understand the comment but the horse’s jumping is his Achilles heel so surely it would be a terrible idea to run here with the hustle and bustle of 20 other seasoned handicappers all around him. I think he’s probably still going to line up in the JLT and it’s where I’d go with him. JP will have runners for this and still has Harry for the Stayers.
I struggle to see any value in the ante-post market for this and a few of those that do sort-of take the eye are currently sat between 16/1 and 25/1, prices which they’ll still be the day of the race.
If Monbeg Notorious turned up, you’d have to back it even if just to cover your stake money but in all seriousness, after today they’ll surely go for the National Hunt Chase for which he’d go off clear favourite.Feb 19, 2018 at 23:18 #1343123
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Charles Yanworth isn’t going for the JLT it’s either the RSA or the Stayers and now also with 1 eye on the Ultima.Feb 20, 2018 at 11:11 #1343160
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Stayers has been confirmed now for yanworth
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