- This topic has 81 replies, 43 voices, and was last updated 8 years, 3 months ago by
.
- Posts
Acapella Bourgeois running over 2 mile 1 furlong today at Fairyhouse. You would imagine he would be nowhere near quick enough for 2 mile 1 furlong. Do you reckon they are trying to get his mark down with this race in mind?
If he runs like a pig today over 2 mile 1 furlong, how much will Phil penalise him? Will he take into account that it’s not his ideal trip?
Good spot on the dodgy race selection today… Doesn’t change the fact that he has no from on good Spring ground though does it?
And yet, and yet… The rumours from the yard say he’s a machine
More than rumours I’d say. Would take some serious cash to keep forcing him down to the crazy SPs he keeps going off at.
I’d say the main reason why he has started at such short prices is because most horses who have moved from Sandra Hughes have improved and bookmakers were scared of the same thing happening with AB. In relation to his form it looks to me like he is more effective over 2.5 miles than 3 miles. He beat road to respect by a furlong in that strange race but that is his only piece of worthwhile form over 3 miles. Ryanair or a 2.5 mile handicap is the place for him. I think it was worth a try for him at 2 miles today but It was unfortunate that he bled.
What are the conditions for this race at Cheltenham?
Got a real Win, Lose, Win, Lose, Win, Lose run going in this race, so after taking a beating in it last year, hopeful of better this time around.
First name that comes to mind for me in this race is Tiger Roll. Runaway winner of The Munster National and National Hunt Chase last season, and “slightly better” than we’ve seen so far this season. My main hope for The Grand National, but first things first, he’ll surely have a race at The Festival to contend with first. He looks as if he’ll be Cross Country bound, and I’ve bet him for that anyway, but off his current mark, I think he’d be a big player here, as unlikely as it looks at the moment. Not quoted
Go Conquer ran a fine race in this year, and though higher in the weights this time around, that rise looks fair. I thought he was a nice enough horse last term, but he never really “grabbed me”. That changed at Ascot though, a few months back, and I thought that was an outstanding performance. Entered for The Skybet, and a midfield finish there would be a perfect prep for this. Another I’m very keen on for Aintree, and he has to come into this. 25’s
In the same ownership as Go Conquer is Three Faces West. He was one of the most improved horses in training last term, and I genuinely believed, before injury struck, that he was destined for Graded Company. Trainer likes a go in this, and I’d be surprised if he doesn’t get an entry. n/q
His runs over 3 Miles haven’t been that impressive, but I think that it would be foolish to write Ballyalton off. I just have a hunch that he might head here. Boasts Festival form, and he’s surely better than he showed at the weekend anyway, regardless of the trip he was attempting. Runs well here, and I really think he could end up here. n/q
Another who’s surely better than he was at the weekend, in the same race as Ballyalton, is On Tour. After a nice win at Aintree, followed by unseating when he was cantering at Newbury, he has, erm, been handled carefully since. Connections had Buywise make the frame in this last year, and this is surely the plan (maybe for Buywise as well come to think of it). n/q
Another horse who took in that race at Kempton was The Young Master, and he’s another who’s made the frame in this. That was two years back, and he was also sixth last year. Woefully out of form since that spring of 2016, he did show a bit more at the weekend, and he’s surely a certainty to run in this, where he’ll come on a significantly lower mark than previous years. Definite dark horse at 33’s
The last 2 renewals have been won by Un Temps Pour Tout, but could connections plan this route for their Vieux Lion Rouge. I think they could, the trip is perfect, and if The National isn’t the priority this year, then this looks where they’ll target him, as until last year, he had been a Festival regular. We’ll have more of an idea with him if he takes his chance in The Peter Marsh. n/q (surprisingly)
Seeyouatmidnight is on the way back, and both his mark, and the trip look perfect, but not convinced the trainer will send him to The Festival, and worth seeing how he is after a long layoff. (n/q)
Nicky Henderson usually has a live one in this, and the likes of Gold Present (16’s), and O O Seven (n/q) will surely be considered, but at 33’s, recent course winner Vyta Du Roc, looks incredibly overpriced. The perfect race to take in, en-route to Aintree, and that price just looks wrong to me.
Cogry didn’t do too much wrong at the weekend, and he hasn’t done that much wrong the last year either. The price of 33’s also looks fair for him, as he only found another outstanding ride from Bryony Frost getting in the way at Warwick, and he’ll bring course form here too.
On the subject of Bryony Frost, she’ll surely be on something for Nicholls, especially with that claim, and the likes of Ptit Zig (n/q), or Frodon (20’s) look likely candidates at this stage.
JP is no stranger to go at this race, and of his contingent, the long absent Pendra (25’s) or Regal Encore (33’s) spring to mind, but I’d like to see what he puts in first, and Edwulf could be one from across The Irish Sea to consider.
As well as Tiger Roll and Edwulf, there are other Irish contenders catching the eye (I have about a dozen on the radar), but the other ones worth a mention at the moment are Mala Beach, Ucello Conti, and my old pal Pleasant Company, all at 25’s, and General Principle, who’s at a very fair 33’s.
Usual minefield then, and not crying out for an early go, but some of the prices mentioned could look crazy on the day. Definitely no bet, until the entry stage at the very least, or alternatively, a good price can be nabbed NRNB.
Good write up VTC. You know there’s not too long til the festival when your handicap write ups begin.
Antepost on handicaps isn’t my thing but the standouts in the betting for me are:
– Singlefarmpayment who i have backed every race this season (bar his seasonal debut which I hoped he wouldn’t be ready for).
– Gold Present who has ran well at the festival before. Thought he was very unlucky last year and could go here before running in the National you’d assume.
– Mall Dini. 16/1 NRNB isn’t a bad bet I think. He is likely to get good ground which he likes and ran really well two years ago at this meeting. This race – the track and trip – would be right up his street.If I was to have a bet right now, it would definitely be on Mall Dini.
Cheers MoM, great time of year, as the entries start to come out, love it.
I was hoping Gold Present went Gold Cup, but not to be, though haven’t given up hope of The Ryanair for him. I still think SFP will go Gold Cup with the right run in The Cotswold.
Mall Dini, a much discussed horse back in the day between myself and Stilvi, and no surprise to see him figure now. I’ve went for him in Kim Muir (not my #1), but he could pop up in a number of races, but wherever he goes, he’s one to take seriously. Good luck with him, and the others too.
Would there be no chance the Young master could go the Kim Muir route? Dropped that far in the weights he’d get in and not be top weight. Will have no issues with the extra furlong over the Ultima and has the bonus of his regular partner being an Amateur.
You have me doubting myself
Definitely Fran, he’d sneak in easily, and would have as live a chance in that, as he does in The Ultima. I could see SWC keeping him to The Ultima though, as he would be guaranteed a ride from someone else in The Kim Muir, freeing himself up for TYM on Day 1.
Seems I was wrong about the trainers plans for Seeyouatmidnight, and this looks the preferred option for him, en-route to Aintree. Should be back out later this month, and hopefully he retains plenty of ability.
I’m perplexed by Alan King saying Yanworth could well end up in this given his mark of 149. If King thinks he’s well ahead of that mark then I can understand the comment but the horse’s jumping is his Achilles heel so surely it would be a terrible idea to run here with the hustle and bustle of 20 other seasoned handicappers all around him. I think he’s probably still going to line up in the JLT and it’s where I’d go with him. JP will have runners for this and still has Harry for the Stayers.
I struggle to see any value in the ante-post market for this and a few of those that do sort-of take the eye are currently sat between 16/1 and 25/1, prices which they’ll still be the day of the race.
If Monbeg Notorious turned up, you’d have to back it even if just to cover your stake money but in all seriousness, after today they’ll surely go for the National Hunt Chase for which he’d go off clear favourite.
Charles Yanworth isn’t going for the JLT it’s either the RSA or the Stayers and now also with 1 eye on the Ultima.
Don’t know what to make of Go Conquer today. He’ll surely be dropped a couple of pounds for that effort, but at the same time, it still wasn’t great.
Few still catch the eye in this, though questionable whether or not backing just now.
Dingo Dollar – Getting brought along quietly by King, and although still a novice, I think he has quite a nice profile for this at 33’s.
Double Ross – He’s either not the same horse since injury, or he’s been laid out for something. If it’s the latter, I think that this could be the plan. He’s a horse who owes me nothing, so I might just take that 66’s NRNB BOG just now.
General Principle – The 33’s for him is outstanding, and the fact that it’s NRNB, makes it easy to bet him here, so I will. Thehorsesmouth already has this bet as well, and there’s no chance on earth I’m sitting back and watching him land it, without a penny on myself lol
Minella Daddy – Satisfactory run last week definitely, and this will surely be the plan. If not here, then he’s high on my shortlist for The Scottish National, before a tilt at Aintree next year. Decent price at 25’s
Sizing Codelco – Shouted this guys name from the rooftops for this season, and he was one of my two main hopes for The Gold Cup. That plan didn’t quite go according to plan. Stable having a better time of it though, and though suspicions of a physical problem, should improve for the spring ground. Certainly better handicapped now as well as a result. Massive at 50’s, but only 33’s NRNB.
Sutton Manor – Runs today in Naas, and that should give us a better idea. I really like him for Fairyhouse, but he ran well at the Festival last year, and that 50’s is a big price.
Ultragold – Very disappointing so far this season, but should thrive in the spring, and represents connections who had a touch in this a few years back. 66’s looks big on Topham form, and I’d be surprised if he didn’t run here.
One of my bigger betting races of the week this, where I have a set amount I’ll bet in it. In these races I can afford a few then using that cash, and sorely tempted to throw all of them in.
As it is, for now, I’ll go……
Double Ross 66’s ew
General Principle 33’s ew
Sizing Codelco 50’s win, 33’s ewI’ve been picking my way through the entries this morning and narrowed it down to the following longlist:
Coo Star Sivola, De Plotting Shed, Dingo Dollar, Gold Present, Last Goodbye, Pleasant Company, Rocklander, Snow Falcon, The Storyteller, Ultragold, Viconte Du Noyer.
Taking out unlikely runners, the list gets condensed to:
Coo Star Sivola, Dingo Dollar, Gold Present, Last Goodbye, Rocklander, Snow Falcon, The Storyteller, Viconte Du Noyer
Remove Coo Star Sivola (short enough @ 14/1), Gold Present (high rating, left-handed track not ideal), Dingo Dollar (stiff enough mark given bare form), Snow Falcon (Noel Meade, LOL), Rocklander (likely to run in the Kim Muir to avoid Singlefarmpayment), The Storyteller (more likely to run in the Plate) and we’re down to:
Last Goodbye, Viconte Du Noyer
LAST GOODBYE
Staying-on in fifth in last year’s Close Bros despite being badly hampered two-out, Liz Doyle’s stable star was a clearcut winner of a valuable handicap chase at Leopardstown over 2m 5f last month. That trip looked the bare minimum as he lost his place mid-race before the stamina kicked in. He was ridden by the tidy 7lb claimer Adam Short there and has gone up 11lbs in the Irish ratings…but presumably Short will be retained. He is still unexposed over a stiff three miles. I’ll wait for NRMB, the final field and extra place offers before putting him in my squad – but presumably he won’t be much shorter than the current 16/1 at that point. Better value to come if I sit on my hands for a bit I think.
VICONTE DU NOYER
FFS – why are Ladbrokes and Coral top price about this one? I’m going to bet this one right now and top up if the prices holds up with the juicier place terms on the day. Since joining Colin Tizzard, Viconte Du Noyer’s record on decent ground over regulation fences is: 1P27.
The win was at Cheltenham from a mark of 148. The P was in this race last season after a slight setback at a time when Colin Tizzard’s horses were running below par. The 2nd was at the Punchestown Festival over 2m 4f (too short for him nowadays) off 148 and the 7 was an eyecatching first start this season. You can easily put a line through two runs on soft ground since then.
I’ll take 33/1 e/w NRMB now and will definitely top up at that price or bigger after final field, extra places etc.
Must also remember to cut the price tomorrow!
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.