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I agree with Mark. I think it’s a poor renewal.
Seems to be a lot of horses in the race who have crept up the handicap for finishing second and not quite doing enough at the end of their races. Vintage Clouds for one.
CSS has been a talking horse for this for the last couple of weeks but i prefer Gold Present. Unless the latter drifts, I won’t be backing at 6/1 for a race as competitive as this though.
The other I really like is Beware the Bear. The ground will surely be soft which he will relish and we know he will stay the trip. Think he’s massively overpriced.
Beware The Bear @ 14/1 each way
@ Nausered: Alan King is quoted in the Post as saying the bad ground is the reason Dingo Dollar misses the race.
One of my favourite races of the week, though I would agree that isn’t the best line up I’ve ever seen for it. Still, plenty in there to chew over.
Of my original bets, only Sizing Codelco makes it, and despite the ground, hopeful of some kind of resurgence from a horse who was one my two big hopes for The Gold Cup this……lol/FFS etc
Thankfully NRNB has taken care of the other, so starting from scratch a little.
Cogry made my initial shortlist for this, and I’d have no concerns at all with conditions for him, and his run here at the start of the season brings him right into this I reckon. 25’s looks a very fair price to me. I’ll bet him each way once five/six places become available, though have bet him win only just now, as I really do like that price.
I would normally have three in this, but struggling just now to make that call. Minella Daddy was on my original list, and it may be him. I see him as National horse long term, and he was lot more like it last time, while Ramses De Teille is entitled to improve. Wakanda only wins when I don’t bet him, so all you Wakanda fans pile in, as he’s only fourth choice if I do add another lol. Shantou Flyer is a horse who I always thought was too high in the handicap, but he has the assistance of Bowen, and will absolutely love conditions here, and he may be the one as well.
Sizing Codelco Win 50’s
Sizing Codelco EW 33’s NRNB BOG
Cogry Win 25’s
Cogry Each WayI’ve backed Ramses De Teillee in this now at 14-1 e/w. He will love the ground, jumps particularly well out of it. This is going to get very attritional on heavy. I can see Gold Present being pulled out.
Similar to VTC, had to start with a pretty much blank piece of paper yesterday; NRNB bets all turning out to be just that – NRNB!
Ramses de Teillee and Beware the Bear make my picks for this, with a preference for the former – the recent record of 6 YO in the race being a concern though.
Could go into reams about this but to be briefer have ruled out these for following reasons:
Gold Present – not intended prep, going, weight on going.
Sizing Codelco – not stay and weight on going.
Yala Enki – hard slog Haydock, weight, inconsistent, wears heart on sleeve too much, stableform.
Shantou Flyer – 2m5f on Heavy would be perfect, weight, not stay.
O O Seven – going, weight, not stay (running to see if Topham or GN the target.
Vicente – prep for Nationals (not even mentioned in trainer’s Festival stable tour features), jumping (even for Sam sometimes).
Beware The Bear – not intended race (Grimthorpe abandoned), jumping especially here, prefers small field & flat track.
Wakanda – second string, inconsistent, wears heart on sleeve too much will fade.
Singlefarmpayment – going, attitude, stable form.
Knight Of Noir – theoretically possible but very unlikely.
Coo Star Sivola – class (if you can do a Class filter on the RP form for this horse), too short.
Vintage Clouds – jumping especially here.
Vic De Touzaine – stable form, horse form.
Casse Tete – won’t stay.
Eamon An Cnoic – won’t stay, second string.At 1/4 1-4, Minella Daddy E/W @ 20/1: only 8 so should come right back to best on third run after injury, not Ascot dependent, yard in form, may not be pretty but can be encouraged by Sean to keep grinding on and shouldn’t get too far back, one of lower weights.
Ramses De Teillee E/W @ 14/1: loves ground, usually jumps well, Pipe great record in race, one of lower weights.
Cogry W @ 25/1: NTD does well here, proven stayer, low weight. Cannot be backed E/W due to jumping. If stays on feet is most likely winner.
Short list of four for me:
Gold Present – Class horse in the race and has had a light campaign. Top weight but comes in fresh.
O O Seven – Solid enough effort behind Gold Present puts him in the mix for places at least.
Wakanda – Apt to be dismissed as exposed but gets in the mix in competitive contests and his best 4 RPRs have all come in double figure fields.
Vintage Clouds – Has run some decent races this season, stays well and handles the mud.Rob
I’ve got Minella Daddy and Beware The Bear. Minella Daddy is surely ahead of the handicapper and I backed him before I knew the ground would be quite so bad, and Beware The Bear looks among the most dour stayers in the field. He will obviously need to jump well, but I do think he’s over-priced.
My 100% Book for very soft/heavy:
Coo Star Sivola 4/1, Vintage Clouds 17/2, Rameses De Teillee 17/2, Gold Present 11/1, Singlefarmpayment 12/1, Minella Daddy 18/1, Yala Enki 20/1, Vicente 20/1, Cogry 20/1, Beware The Bear 25/1, Wakanda 25/1, Shantou Flyer 28/1, Sizing Codelco 33/1, OO Seven 33/1, Knight Of Noir 33/1, Casse Tete 40/1, Eamon An Craic 66/1, Vic De Touzaine 500/1.
Taken 11/2 Coo Star Sivola, 14/1 Rameses De Teillee and 54/1 Sizing Codelco with a saver on Vintage Clouds 10/1.
Value Is EverythingI don’t think I’ve ever backed the winner in this, but Yala Enki and Cogry for me.
BlueSky @pghenn.bsky.social
So don't run, just like the others always do
I think Cogry has a very solid chance here. I took the 20s with Paddy Power
this afternoon (best priced 16s at the moment). He can be a bit in and out, but he loves it
round here and the way he won the Radoxhealth.com H’cap Chase here back in October with a string
of decent animals behind him looks good enough to take a hand in this. He won with STD jocked
up, off a mark of 133, and although he’s up 5lbs he has the very decent Jamie Balgary on board
who takes 3lbs off. He’s a very solid e/w, with a genuine chance of taking this. Good luck
Ginger, doesn’t it worry you that Coo Star Sivola (whose best hurdles and chase RPRs are similar) has the following record in Britain?
Class 1: 7 runs, best RPRs 135 and a cluster 130-135.
Class 2: 4 runs, best RPR of 141 three times.
Classes 3 & 4: 3 runs including two best RPRs of 148 & 149.Holywell is my only previous winner, though i did advise my mate to back Un Temps Pour Tout last year without actually putting a penny on him myself
Singlefarmpayment looks pretty solid and i wouldn’t be too put off by the ground. Yala Enki gets the nod too if only because he’s a favourite of mine and will take to conditions better than most. Chances are only a handful will actually finish and i trust him to be one of them.
Ended up with Gold Present EW 10/1 and Shantou Flyer EW 20/1.
I think Gold Present is still a bit unexposed. Second here last year in the Close Brothers and kept on progressing during the season. Certainly better at 3m1f than 2m4f. Slight worry though if he can handle the ground. Shantou Flyer is always running at his best at Cheltenham and is on a fair mark, especially with James Bowen taking three pounds. Ground shouldn’t be a problem.
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