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How can Jonbon not win? The only thing I’ve heard anyone say to that question is that he’s won 2 crawls. That’s not an answer to why he can’t win.
How can a horse who’s pissed up twice, not win the supreme. The crawls didn’t suit him. He wants a lead and he’s too keen early on. A strong pace will only help him. He’s going to be better off a strong pace not worse lol.
Just imagine the crazy idea that a strong pace might bring about improvement in him. Then imagine saying he can’t win a supreme.
Yeah some nice points there in response to my post. All I would say to further my point is that, when I refer to the champion bumper, it’s not ‘bad’ form as such. I just think it was an average champion bumper. Every single year there’s loads of winners come out of the bumper , that’s not what I’m debating. I’m saying last years bumper wasn’t as strong as envois year or ferny hollow’s year in my opinion. Maybe I’ll be proven wrong in time….
I think Elle est Belle is a 125-130 hurdler at the minute. Kilcrut clearly not great but could have an issue. Three strip life probably a bit better than 130. And a host of 120-130 horses in behind.
Also I feel kilcrut was actually the better bumper horse of the 2 for the year and the punchestown form is maybe a better guide in my eyes with Sir G beaten.I also think Sir G would be more suited to the ballymore.
He’s also up against 2 horses that really do give me similar vibes to Shishkin/Altior standard on what they’ve done so far. I could be wrong about 1 of them but I’d expect atleast 1 of the 2 to run over 150 which would win many renewals of this race.
All those reasons are why I actually think Sir G is the worst value and priced on his bumper form which I don’t think is as good as some other bumper winners form is. That’s my whole arguement. If it turns out both hendos aren’t superstars and the bumper was actually one of the best Recent times then Sir G will likely win.
On the contrary to most it seems,
I think Sir Gerhard is the worst value.
Firstly, only 1 champion bumper winner this century has won the supreme. They have a terrible record in the race. Also a vast majority of champion bumper winners haven’t turned out to be true grade 1 hurdlers.
I’ve heard someone mention that the champion bumper form is the best form so far for this? Is that a joke? Firstly, id always take hurdles form over flat form. Secondly, that was not a vintage bumper what so ever. It’s an average champion bumper at best. Many stronger champion bumpers than that over the years.
How anyone can slag off Jonbon for winning 2 falsely run races I will never know. Both races were a joke at the start which is factual. Doesn’t many horse that takes part in that kind of race is scratched from the form book. He’s laughed at his rivals on both occasions, couldn’t have done anymore than he did. Then there’s people saying he won’t like a strong pace? I mean that is possible but to me he has looked on both occasions like he would be better getting a lead and better off a strong pace being able to settle better as he’s a keen goer. I feel like this looks fairly obvious. Can’t see how a strong pace will make him worse anyway. He’s laughed at many 130’s horses looking like he could have gone round again. Colonel mustard is near 140 rated and if you think he was only as good as the winning margin that day then get down specsavers. So to me Jonbon is easily capable of 150.
Constitution Hill is a bit easier to assess and agree with most that he’s probably capable of 150+ too.
Neither have had any questions asked of them yet. I don’t see that as a negative, to me it means their ceiling is so far above anything else so far it’s scary. Both already look capable of 150 runs to me and look an unbelievable pair of novices.The bumper form is ok at best and Sir G has beaten what looks like about a 115 hurdler on hurdling debut and people are knocking the Hendo pairs form!! Hahaha
Sir G is priced on the basis that because he won a bumper he is therefore ferny hollow or envoi allen and recency bias that punter believe all bumper winners will now be superstars when history tells you they aren’t in most cases. It also wasn’t a vintage champion bumper. Sir G big lay
I am maximus still so immature. Won’t be doing much this season anyway. Sweated pre race, jumped poorly and his action is strange to say the least. Has loads to work on. Although would say it is a credit to him he still nearly won.
Wide open race and haven’t had a bet yet but I think I AM MAXIMUS is a bet here at 16/1 (I’m boosting it to 18/1 with betfair)
Hendo clearly has an above average crop of hurdlers this year even for his own very high standards. Seems to have plenty of ammo for the supreme and clearly they are trying to make a ballymore out of I am maximus hence it’s New Year’s Day entry.
Maximus was always mentioned in the same breathe as all their top novices at the start of the season and I don’t think he’s done much wrong really. Very novicey and green on debut and turns out was beaten by a decent one. And then more professional next time out and looks crying out for a trip so this could be ideal. He could be 5/1 after tomorrow’s race
As for being a weak champion chase… you now have 2 potential superstars added to it and to me everyone is playing for 3rd place. Don’t particularly like betting on just 1 place.
Also with editeur du gite I do like his profile too but seems a long way off this standard still and definitely won’t be getting an easy lead like he does in his handicap victories
Current book:
Supreme – Jonbon 33/1,10/1,8/1,7/1,5/1
– constitution hill 12/1,11/2
– I am maximus 20/1Arkle – ferny hollow 7/2
Champion hurdle – honeysuckle 7/4 (multiples only)
Festival novice chase – GDC 5/1
– BMG 5/1Champion Chase – Shishkin 20/1 arkle/cc, 9/2, 7/4
Marsh – Bob Olinger 11/4
Stayers – champ 20/1
– thyme hill 12/1
– buzz 6/1Albert Bartlett – blazing khal 20/1,15/1,10/1
– barsenstown lad 27/1Gold cup – monkfish 7/1,9/2
Very happy so far with just monkfish and buzz only ones letting me down really. Others all seem to be working out well so far
Next destination the right favourite. He’s always looked a staying chaser and his novice hurdle class shows just how talented he is too. Wouldn’t be out of place in a gold cup this hirse
Out of the shorties I’ve noticed most people think Shishkin is the most vulnerable purely on the basis that he has the best opposition.
Totally understand that but to me Shishkin and Monkfish are the only 2 horses at the festival where I see 0 weaknesses. Shishkin has absolutely everything, there is not 1 weakness. Doesn’t bother me who he’s against when he hasn’t got a weakness. Especially when I can pick plenty of holes in Energumene and Allmankind.
I know some will say envoi also has no weaknesses but the change of stables is a very small concern in my opinion. It shouldn’t matter but there is still a very small chance it has affected him.
So overall, the only 2 bankers for me are monkfish and Shishkin
Average champion chase winner at best ? Hahaha
Last 10 years winners:
Politologue- thrashed him no end of times
Altior
Altior
Special tiara
Sprinter Sacre
Dodging bullets
Sire de grugy
Sprinter Sacre
Finians rainbow
Sizing Europe
Big zebHe’s the 2nd best champion chase on that list by a long way. So I’d say he’s well above average mate. He went unbeaten 21 races in a row which is a record
Throw in his multiple wins over the hugely talented Un De Sceaux on heavy ground and beating Min multiple times easily.
The only horses in the last few decades you could argue are better is Sprinter Sacre, master minded and Moscow flyer.
So I think it’s a disgrace that you say he’s an average champion chase winner at best and if anything it shows you’re complete incompetent in terms of judgement to be honest mate.
Claiming at his peak he would be pulled up ? I know that’s tongue in cheek but **** me mate he’s already thrashed all these in the past bar chacun pour soi and like I’ve already highlighted, he’s in the top 4 winners of the last few decades. So wind your neck in.
Having said all that it’s highly unlikely that this season he will turn up at his best given his age so I’m not expecting him to win. I just think your comments are truly ridiculous
Why is U.K. racing being dragged into the horse welfare scandal. At the end of the day it seems mainly an Irish problem, so why is British racing being brought down. If it was France with a problem, no one over here would be trying to bring down British racing with it
Disagree, I think Cheltenham will suit tritonic a lot better as it’s a stiffer track. I would expect him to beat them by further
How on earth is this a weaker renewal captain Robbo? You have last years 2nd,3rd and 5th reopposing.
You also have champ, minella indo, A plus Tard, Frodon and royal pagaille new opponents.
You also have a returning champ in native river this time too.
Really struggling to see that it’s weakerHaha yeah i think some people use the term second season novice to indicate that they were novices the previous season, rather than saying they are eligible to race in novice company for the second time due to not winning the previous season
