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Crickey some nonsense in here about Shishkin before the race. Maximum stake for me today. Ran well enough in tingle last time to prove the engine was still there just jumping errors stopping him finishing 2nd. Looked desperate for this trip. Easy he’s a legend
Dysart would have been 4th in supreme. Already passed by both Jonbon and CH when fell. And running with the choke out he was never getting home
Can’t see honeysuckle running here. She nearly got beat in the hattons Grace a couple years back by Ronald pump and I don’t think her loss in it this time is far off that form. She improved dramatically for that next time out so I suspect she will win next time and she would have to go for the champion hurdle then. Epatante did win over 2m4f but that was at aintree and I’m still not fully convinced she wants that trip and is getting on a bit now.
I think brandy love is easily the one to be with as she’s got superb form despite not always getting things right. She should be even better round Cheltenham left handed.
Marie’s rock would be of interest too if definitely running here.On Shishkin at 23s and 13s. Has always looked like this could actually be his optimum trip. Don’t think his reappearance run at Sandown was as bad as some have made out. He just looked a little outpaced and I believe that made him jump worse than ever. That’s the worst I’ve ever seen him jump and maybe at a more comfortable pace he will jump like he has done in the past. Had he jumped better last time I’m convinced he would have finished 2nd at worst
No strong opinion on this. Jonbon clearly the best of the British by a mile but it’s hard to quantify his form as he hasn’t had much to beat. The recent Mullins runners were good but didn’t blow me away. Maybe Jonbon will be good enough but this could turn out to be very open and maybe an outsider will come into it
On Jet Powered at 25s and 8s. Impressed with his debut and he had them well strung out too. He could have plenty more to come.
Obviously Facile Vega will be hard to beat but I never got on him when he was a half decent price as I personally thought he would be better suited to the Ballymore and I don’t like backing horses when I’m not 95% sure where they will be running. Couldn’t back at 11/10 now as his bumper form is superb but bumper winners don’t often win the supreme and yes he was super impressive on debut but the sectionals suggest the other horses didn’t want to get close to him rather than him being way too good. I’ve seen horses jump better on hurdling debut than him, aware he could improve in that department but I wouldn’t be wanting yo many negatives about an 11/10 **** this far out
Nice arguments for and against Sir G going supreme/ballymore but what’s the point when the exchanges tell you everything time and time again . I know they aren’t right all the time of course but the exchanges seem to know decisions much quicker than the press haha.
Anyway, the exchanges suggest Sir G is about an 80/20 chance of going ballymore over supreme
Just watched the Jonbon ascot race again Nathan. If he was asked for full effort like Sir G he could have easily beat colonel by 10
This can’t be a serious post Nathan?
Jonbon beat colonel mustard in a crawl which always means distance between runners at the finish should be smaller.
Plus Jonbon won in a canter and Sir G was asked for full effort and beat it 12 lenghts.
If we are assuming colonel mustard ran to the same level on both occasions I’d say Jonbon and Sir G have performed very similarly if you take into account what I’ve just saidYep wasn’t anywhere near as impressed. Suspect he was still clear best but the race did fall apart.
Capodanno and beacon edge didn’t complete and a number of the others made plenty of mistakes.
The race was gifted on a plate to GDC.
Prior to today I though GDC would beat Bob in the turners. Now I’m not sure who I’d side with if they meetIt’s a shame but I must admit I think his temperament could be his downfall too. Although the run Saturday wasn’t bad, it didn’t signify progression from his last 2 runs and I think it was down to temperament too. You can only imagine it will be worse at Cheltenham. Could be a horse for next year.
It’s a real shame as his hurdling is absolutely electric. He hurdles like a champion hurdler. But needs to mature and this could come too soon for him
Once again ham you don’t actually read the post and junk to conclusions.
I was referring to debut runs…
Dysart did a very similar thing to similar opposition on debut so in terms of debut runs that was in similar realm. I’m not talking about dysarts run last time out.
Jonbon beat good risk at all 6 lenghts hard held
Constitution Hill beat might I 14 lenghts which you’d probably say was the best debut of all.
Walking on air beat a 120’s horse hard held by 13 lenghts.In terms of debuts I’m not saying he was as good as any of those 3 but I’m saying he wasn’t far behind at all and that’s not a ridiculous statement at all. Maybe he won’t improve who knows, but to me he’s got plenty more in the locker and should find natural improvement. Also want to state I don’t think he’s as good as any of those front 3 in the supreme as I’ve already stated in previous post but the ballymore looks easier so if he is 4/5 pounds inferior that makes him a big chance in the ballymore.
I’d happily have a side bet with you that he finishes first 3/4 in the ballymore.
As far as ginto is concerned… well lol mate, that debut was definitely better than ginto’s debut. Clearly go to has improved substantially but as I’ve already stated in both posts I am simply comparing debut runs not subsequent runs.
Now if you turned round to me and said walking on air doesn’t have enough time between now and Cheltenham to show the required improvement necessary to reach the level these other horses have set then I would say that’s a fair point and may be the case but you didn’t say that at all.
Oh and stage star beat a horse 6 lenghts on debut who got thrashed 28 lenghts off 120. You’ll be telling me that was a better debut too no doubt.
As far as debuts go, that was pretty electric from walking on air there today. Would go as far as to say that was only 4/5 pounds worse debut run than the likes of the supreme novices principals which would give him a huge chance in this
Is it just me who though capodanno was just given a soft ride there? Not saying he would have won but could have finished closer if he wanted to
Oh yes Mike he would be the perfect pacemaker for Jonbon. Seeing as Jonbon is crying out for them to go a gallop. Jonbon should be fav now Dysart looks likely to run here.
The race Jonbon won last time was the strongest novice hurdle of the season so far in Britain and Ireland and he won it as he liked.
It was a false start to the race but go and watch the replay, he had every single horse off the bridle before they had turned into the home straight. When the races are ran slowly they are all usually travelling within themselves for much longer so he must have put some pretty special sectionals in down that back straight to have them all going at it along way out. That to me showed me how special he is.You say nothing suggests he would be better with a stronger pace. There’s actually nothing to suggest he would be worse mate haha. I really don’t think going a stronger pace will make him pull harder, usually a stronger pace helps them settle bud.
He’s 3/1 because as mentioned already he’s won the best novice race so far this season by laughing at his rivals. You could argue he should be favourite on that basis. And to suggest 10/1 is pretty ridiculous really in January. What should it be 10/1 the field in your opinion? Even though it could easily be a single digits number of runners again like last year. And we’ve probably seen 95% of the runners already this season who will run in the supreme so if he has the best form so far he should be way below 10/1.
And it’s not dreaming to think Jonbon wouldn’t be just as good if not better off a stronger pace. It’s a dream to think there isn’t horses out there that can win fast and slow run races. It’s called ‘class’ and Jonbon has plenty of class
