- This topic has 377 replies, 40 voices, and was last updated 4 years, 1 month ago by
.
- Posts
Stable tours flying out atm, notable that nicky Henderson was much more enthusiastic about I Am Maximus than Jonbon who is much shorter than him
Speculative play on I am maximus @ 20/1 for me
Had a look at the stable tour quotes. IAM reads like a ‘could be anything, hope he’s good’ whereas Jonbon IS one of Henderson’s top Novice Hurdle hopes he says.
Not uncommon for the trainer to have 2 hopes in the race so we’ll see if anything from the stable is another Shishkin.
He has schooled very well, and we just don’t know how good he is. He could be one of the most exciting prospects we have had for a long time, and we hope he can live up to our expectations.
he is one of our big hopes for novice hurdles this season.
Yeah Mike i can see what you mean, though tbh, taking any stable tour from Nicky is pretty pointless, everything is “gorgeous and has tonnes of ability”….
On form, you’d have to say, Jonbon has more to prove than IAM. Jonbon is living off a reputation due to being related to Douvan. His bumper has zero worthwile form yet.
Whereas, IAM’s run has lots of substance.
2nd obviously My Drogo
3rd Tile Tapper 121
4th 135 rated
5th won bumper NTO easily.Early days for both, but i’d rather side with IAM on his form than Nicky’s hollow words…
Back neither btw.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!“I’m not buying into Jonbon yet
You see it all the time on the flat with very expensive full siblings to great horses winning poor races then ending up being useless
Because of the douvan connection hes always going to go off too short and will never be a value price”
My brief thoughts on jonbon at this stage that I posted on fat jockey last week
“On form, you’d have to say, Jonbon has more to prove than IAM. Jonbon is living off a reputation due to being related to Douvan. His bumper has zero worthwile form yet.”
That first Jonbon run isn’t too relevant for form purposes as it was just an introduction. Shishkin did the same in his bumper. He beat horses that have shown not great ability since. The 2nd in Shishkin’s bumper was a 108 horse the following season (recently 116), the 3rd is rated 98 over hurdles, the 4th doesn’t have a rating, and the 5th is 90 over hurdles.
The issue is that shishkin won the supreme at 6/1 and was as big as 7s on the day
Whereas jonbon is currently 10s with one firm and generally 15/2-8/1 simply because he’s douvans brother
Depends what value you are after. If you had 8-1 (10s in a place) now for example and he cleans up the 2m division in the UK he’ll be a 5-2/3-1 or even shorter chance for the Festival. Then the 8s/10s is value
That seems like a very very big IF at this stage
Just because he goes off shorter doesnt mean the price today was any value with how much he has to prove
Id much much rather say back tellmesomethinggirl for the mares or galopin des champs at 8s as they are Cheltenham winners and proven to have plenty of ability
The supreme tends to be a pretty volatile ante post market and id rather take a swing at IAM at 20s than jonbon at 8s personally
They may both be useless but in the long run id rather have a speculative long range punt at 20s than 8s
Fair enough. With a lot of this antepost betting, its a bit too risky without a cash out option anyway.
Well it is relative in relation to your post- as IAM has more worthwhile form to suggest he’ll be a force in novice hurdles this year than Jonbon. Not even a comparison.
Jonbon’s rep is based on Douvan and a price tag. That’s all right? Tell me what i’m missing?
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!Shishkin didn’t have any worthwhile bumper form yet won the Supreme is what I was getting at. The runner up in that Supreme for example blew Shishkin’s bumper form out of the water in comparison, yet couldn’t beat Shishkin. Whilst I appreciate he has a price tag and a famous relative to live up to, it is too early to be dismissive based on that one run because Shishkin showed that horses can make the necessary improvement from bumpers to hurdles.
See kilcruit as a ballymore horse personally
Have sir gerhard in a few doubles but no interest in a single at that price
Nicky Henderson in his Unibet stable tour (novice hurdlers) said Jonbon gets talked about by the fact he cost 500 grand. When asked if he shows in his work he’s worth that much he said Yes. That’s the Supreme done and dusted then
lolLol Mike imagine, just imagine he said No?
Now Nicky’s been so positive i’m guessing Elliot and Mullins will send all theirs elsewhere lol
On a serious note for this, My Mate Mozzie was impressive a few week’s back, it’ll be interesting to see how he shapes up.
He won a PTP, bumper and maiden hurdle easily, and cost £205,000 so he’s probably £300k or so worse than Jonbon lol…….
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.