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People who have a clue about racing probably don’t think he’s overrated. Same with some other horses that get described as overrated. Some folk might want to take these horses on for betting purposes but it don’t mean they are underrated necessarily, it just means they want to back something else.
Understand what your saying Jack but my own view is that he,d be going in lacking the savy of a experienced field , it’s a big decision to make but I always think of carvill hill in this situation
Pick 3 on Saturday champion 2025/2026
Royale Pagaille up to 166, 5lb below the BHA Performance mark Al Boum Photo got in last year’s Gold Cup.
The Heavy-ground Peter Marsh winner is open to further improvement and I see it’s likely to be Heavy at Cheltenham on Saturday.
Given the apparent deterioration in the drainage the last two years, it might be similarly testing at the Festival.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"I cant understand why anyone would back RP for this atall or any race for that matter, as visually impressive as it appears to be, what would ABP have done to that field under the same conditions, id be surprised if it wasnt alot easier and i dont buy into it taking him 9 starts before he shows this level of form either
Ill be heavily opposing him wherever he goes in a grade 1, hes done absolutely nothing to prove that level, he beat a good ground horse in a bog LTO with an 11 yo whos way past his best in 3rd
Has beaten the wrong horses.
Has to be given the rating hes been given purely on visuals, no chance of upholding it.
Had a bet on Delta Work some time ago and he is back out to the same price now in a place. Not that bad a run today really and could easily see him finishing in front of those who ran today. So thought the 33’s on offer NRNB EW is quite decent really, no chance he goes off that price if turning up.
So, after the Irish Gold Cup done is quite hard to really name a horse who really deserves favouritism.
Al Boum Photo is a clear favourite and following his last two years that is understandable, but it purely based on the previous editions, not on any other form. The novice form with Allaho / Minella Indo and possibly Champ doesn’t look too strong, the same for the novice form of two years ago with Delta Work and Santini disappointing so far.
Kemboy might be the best, but doesn’t seem to be on his best at Cheltenham. A Plus Tard does and showed strong form over Christmas. I think he is quite a big price and he probably has the best line of form for this season. Royal Pagaille deserve his places, but is hard to assess from handicap company. I can’t see Frodon getting complete freedom at the front again, nor being good enough. Native River showed excellent form yesterday, but he will need at least real soft ground. Lostintranslation didn’t show anything so far. The rest of them either are really long shots or go the National.
I backed Native River at 100/1 a few months ago. A bit out of loyalty, but after yesterday I do think he really can win it if spring is postponed for another few weeks.
I’ve added A Plus Tard today.
Native River 100/1
A Plus Tard 9/1You can probably put this down to madness as from what he has shown so far this season, he doesn’t look to be good enough. However, 20/1 for Minella Indo looks overly generous if you can excuse his latest run and his uncharacteristic fall prior to that. In previous seasons he has come on steadily during the season before peaking at the Festival. He’s my each way selection in a competitive race.
Last year’s RSA hasn’t worked out , you can forgive the fall but there were no excuses last time , look at the horse who beat him for 2nd ….he,ll get taken off his feet ala Santini
Pick 3 on Saturday champion 2025/2026
HDLG, on what we’ve seen so far you’re right but i’m prepared to take a chance at the price that there is more in the locker. Allaho is a strong favourite for the Ryanair, Champ hasn’t been seen since and Aye Right was more than 30 lengths behind these 3 in the RSA and has franked the form since, albeit in a lower grade.
Do i expect Minella Indo to win? No. Do i hope i will get a good run for my money? Yes.
Al Boun photo finally has competition! And 2nd season novices have a great record in this.
He won the RSA jumping poorly, he’s not perfect but he’s much better jumper now on that evidence.
Minella indo and allaho haven’t blown the world away yet but been fairly good and I just think champ is just superior to those 2 given how he jumped and still beat them. He’s now a better jumper so for me, I think he’s a long way ahead of those 2 now and a big player here
Al Boum Photo looks a terrible price to me. Given the inch perfect ride and barely scrambled home from Santini and Lostintranslation – looks barely Grade 2 form now.
I could see Champ going off favourite here.
RSA runners do have a good record in the gold cup?
Sure I’ve heard it before, maybe notOnly a technicality, Jas.
A second season novice is one which has had one season over fences and failed to win, so is therefore in its second season as a novice.
Don’t worry- loads of people use the term incorrectly; I’ve even heard Henderson himself do it!
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