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Agreed, Mahler could well run into a place as he is very much an unexposed horse.
Take the favorite out and this doesn’t look a great race to these eyes;  a field with quite a few that are , imho, a rung or two below the top level. I think that it is too early to be writing off Strategic Prince, though, as he was classy as a 2-Y-O and he could well give a good account of himself today. He’s another one that could sneak a place, imho.
(Edited by ClintM at 8:37 am on June 2, 2007)
In the Derby there are always one or two unexposed horses that will run better than expected and there are always doubts about a horse’s ability to handle Epsom’s undulations .I certainly wouldn’t oppose Authorized – at this point he looks out on his own from a handicapping standpoint –  but is he a certainty ? Not for me. Odds on shots have to have water-tight credentials for me to go steaming in.
(Edited by ClintM at 7:13 am on June 1, 2007)
A typically small field for the race. And when you look at some of the horses that have one this in the past, this year’s renewal isn’t a great event.
I’m not a great Sixties Icon fan, as I don’t see him as a true Gr1 horse – he might not have to be ,though, to win this  year – but he’d still be a lay for me.
(Edited by ClintM at 8:39 am on May 31, 2007)<br>
(Edited by ClintM at 8:41 am on May 31, 2007)
To the eye, it was brutal stuff from Lester on Roberto. His Derby ride on The Minstrel was pretty much the same, as was Christy Roche’s ride on Secreto. It is, however, a matter of conjecture how much pain a horse actually feels from the whip. In my experience, some horses resent the whip, but more run for it. Also, the whip doesn’t cause , for the most part, the real distress many horses remember.
Nice post, Flash.
Each Gr1 race has its good years and bad years, but Derby day has its place in English history and that should never be forgotten.
The Derby doesn’t have the same significance it once did, but is it now insignificant ? I think that many breeders, owners, trainers, jockeys, and the masses who’ll be attending Epsom on the big day, will beg to differ.
I can’t oppose him, as he looks to be in a different league to anything else.  <br>
(Edited by ClintM at 10:15 am on May 22, 2007)
I didn’t see the race myself but it was the horse’s first run in nearly a year, so perhaps it (the run)was needed.
Whether or not Authorized goes on to win the Derby remains to be seen, but it is starting to look fairly safe to say that this season’s Craven was a pretty mediocre event.
Personally, the Dante is a "watcher", as there are too many ifs and buts  to make Authorized a lay-down, huge bet , certainty. He put up in a great performance at Newbury last year on heavy but often races run on such ground are misleading.
Also, today’s pace – as usual – is of vital importance. Proponent could be the one to lead, as he has "made all" before, but how fast will they go ? If the race turns into a falsely-run affair, as often happens in small fields,  I can see Adagio being a danger, as he enjoyed the more slowly run Craven more than he did the frenetic Guineas.
The Fillies and Mare race looks, to my eyes, to be a toss up between Anna Pavlova and Echelon, with the ground probably being the deciding factor. AP looks to be favored by the soft, but how soft will the ground actually be ? Amadeus Wolf ran 1min 10secs for 6 furlongs yesterday, which just plainly isn’t a flat-track, soft ground time. A lot of rain will have to have fallen on York since yesterday afternoon for the ground to now be genuinely soft. <br>
(Edited by ClintM at 1:36 pm on May 17, 2007)
I wish all of you Admiral supporters all the very best. It’s just that I don’t think that his form with Medicine Path ( respectable form but has only ever won a Maiden), Kirklees ( a Group 1 performer – IN ITALY), Desert Dew ( a top Handicap winner) is going to get it done in an average Derby, if that is what we’re going to get this year. Not too long to go to find out now, though. Bring it on.
Does anyone else think we may have seen the Derby winner in today’s Dee Stakes?
Not me. What did he beat today ?We’ve had a fairly good look at ‘the Admiral’ now . It have to be a bad Derby if he’s going to win, imho.
Right, so the above begs the question what is going to win ? Obviously, It’s difficult to say at the moment. I think that the Ballysax Stakes looks to have been a good renewal this year, so the winner may well come out of that. 16/1 is still available about the winner , which looks a value wager, imho. I’d like the favorite if the ground is soft on the big day. No other lines of form would have me running to the bookies at this present moment in time.
Quote: from reet hard on 5:39 pm on May 10, 2007[br]Some say the clock doesn’t lie, I’d much rather believe the form book. <br>
For what it’s worth , I gave up using solely collateral formlines a long time ago because it doesn’t take into consideration the way races are run. All too often, using the aforemetioned method, you see horse A beating horse B, and then the two horses reoppose on terms which are more favorable to horse B but B still loses; sometimes by further. If some sort of pace analysis/ sectional timing had been taken into consideration after the first race, one just might have seen that A had a chance of confirming the form. Just perhaps A would have been, armed with a little more knowledge, the choice for the second race.
Just my two cents, and I suppose we all have our own prefered methods of going broke ;)
I stopped reading after the first paragraph. The author suggests that Saturday’s comparatively slow Guineas’ time – if that is what it was – was a result of both Teofilo and HRE defection . Truly unbelievable.
The author needs to understand that finishing times are only a result of what has happened before in any particular race, and that other sectionals are vitally important in understanding finishing times.
As for CR, I’ll reserve judgement on him until I’ve seen him run again under different circumstances.
Quote: from reet hard on 11:51 am on May 9, 2007[br]The Cheshire Oaks isn’t a race I’d bet in, but I thought the following a telling quote:
Aidan O’Brien, trainer of All My Loving <br>“We think she has come forward from her maiden win at Leopardstown last month, and the form of that race is working out quite well. We think the step up in trip will suit her, and she needs more experience if she is to go up in class again."
And guess which of the big 3 is shortest?:) <br>
The Cheshire Oaks is an interesting race and could well be a significant Epsom trial. I think that the Cecil filly sets a reasonable standard , and if All My Loving can win and win reasonably well, I think that she (AML) will be a major player in the Oaks . ÂÂÂ
Interestingly –  although I’ve never been one to place 100% faith in pedigree analysis  –  All My Loving’s background looks to be that of a middle-distance performer ; more so, imho, than many who are prominent in the Oaks’ betting.
As usual, all will be revealed in time.
(Edited by ClintM at 12:18 pm on May 9, 2007)
