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And I may even travel to Europe next year to back SOF to beat Conduit
Then I’d advise you to stay at home.
Michael Stoute isn’t famous for tilting at windmills, (Conduit being his third winner of the ‘Turf’, though his first 3yo) and the very fact that he stays in training next year is warning enough that the horse has more improvement to come.
As it stands, he is just about the most improved horse in training this season (46lb on official figures), and for a St Leger winner to do what he did in the completely different environs of Santa Anita speaks volumes for his latent class and potential.
At the moment it’s just my opinion, but I’d be fairly certain that SOF, and a number of other classy older horses, won’t see where this horse went, next season.Just wanted to bump this one up.
I hope some people don’t lose too much money this year in the belief that Conduit was a superior BC Turf winner.
People within horse racing also say that Epsom is a tougher test than the Curragh believe it or not. Therefore his derby win is underestimated by some also.
What some people don’t appreciate is that the opening furlongs of the Derby (from the gate to around the 7 furlong pole ) are run on one of the steepest gradients you’ll find on a racetrack , so horses ,often, have some very hard running to do before they reach the top of Tattenham Hill. In addition, the track, obviously, features a severe camber, and a downhill section , which , along with the aforementioned energy-sapping opening part of the race, makes for a very tough test .
He pulled away at the beggining of the derby and no doubt the usual energy was expended, but still had it at the end.
It is most unlikely that STS expended excessive amounts of energy during the first part of the Derby because the early furlongs of the race were run at little more than a canter – which explains why STS "had it at the end" . Certainly Mick Kinane , unlike a few other jockeys , Fame & Glory’s in particular , had his mount perfectly positioned for when the sprint for home – which is exactly what happened – started.
I suppose we can only guess at what would have happened had the field been taken through more searching fractions – different tactics from Kinane isn’t hard to envisage ,imho.
Aidan O’Brien seems very adept at producing horses fit and ready to run for their lives in the 2000 Guineas ( all of his winners of the race – Henrythenavigator , George Washington, Footstepsinthesands, Rock of Gibraltar & King of Kings – won on their seasonal debuts ) so why was Mastercraftsman so desperately in need of the run for this year’s renewal ? And I clearly remember Aidan saying that the horse had a trouble-free Guineas’ preparation.
It seems that plenty of people are willing in this instance to take heavy ground form at face value.
The 3/1 is going now, only Ladbrokes are holding onto it at the moment from what I’ve seen (apologies if wrong) and I’m not surprised. If we don’t get a half impressive Dante winner I can see this horse going off 7/4 / 15/8 at Epsom.
When Ladbrokes go biggest about an O’Brien runner, as they are doing with Fame & Glory , it’s usually time to start looking elsewhere for the winner ( the Derby in this case ) .
By half a point?
Ladbrokes opened Fame And Glory odds against on Sunday and he was hammered into odds on.
Half a point’s half a point . Where would you take your money if you wanted to back him – elsewhere ?
To use just two examples, Ladbrokes got it right when they never ducked Rip Van Winkle and Mastercraftsman in the run up to the Guineas , and they went largest about Listen for the ’08 1000 Guineas all through the 07/08 winter , before O’Brien cooly announced , in March , that there was a problem with the filly and that she had been wrong for some time.
Ladbrokes rarely gets Ballydoyle wrong , and , trying to read between the lines , it could well be that the firm didn’t mind laying Fame & Glory in the Derrinstown for a very good reason – he’s no superstar . No doubt time will reveal all.
The 3/1 is going now, only Ladbrokes are holding onto it at the moment from what I’ve seen (apologies if wrong) and I’m not surprised. If we don’t get a half impressive Dante winner I can see this horse going off 7/4 / 15/8 at Epsom.
When Ladbrokes go biggest about an O’Brien runner, as they are doing with Fame & Glory , it’s usually time to start looking elsewhere for the winner ( the Derby in this case ) .
Noticed that Ladbrokes – seldom wrong about all things Ballydoyle – go an ominous best-priced 4s about RVW, and they’re fielding as if they can get the first 3 in the market beat. Perhaps this is going to be the year of the longshot.
Interestingly, Ladbrokes are now
6/1 Rip Van Winkle
7/1 Mastercraftsman (fully2 points
bigger than next best price)
Looks like Johnny’s made his decision. Either that or MCM isn’t Newmarket bound.
BUL, if you think for one minute that the Mastercraftsman that was beaten
by Naaqoos in Paris was giving his true running then i"m afraid you fall into
the Clueless category that Fisty rules extroadinaire! The Master can handle any ground, Naaqoos really doesn"t want it fast!If you’re a clockwatcher, Mastercraftsman produced his best performance of his 2-Y-0 season when beaten by Naaqoos in France , so there is a possibilty that O’Brien’s colt was beaten fair and square ( for what it’s worth ,rolling out the one-race-too-many theory for the Ballydoyle colt hints at lazy form study ,imho ) . And, judging by current odds, if any one wants to back Mastercraftsman – or Rip Van Winkle , for that matter – Ladbrokes will gladly take your money : always an ominous sign.
I’d also recommend Killashee House – stayed there a couple of times and it’s pretty good.
Mark is no stranger to the US scene : he has been a guest caller at Suffolk Downs – and did a great job , imho.
Naive is a word that springs to mind. If you think that going through a mile in 1.33 ish is a tactically astute thing to do in a 12 furlong race then I really think that you need to learn more about how racing actually works.
Not naive enough to think one can predict the outcome of future races on the evidence of just one run, while completely ignoring all the previous form of its contestants.
I wish you luck – I think you’ll need it!I don’t think I’m the one who needs the luck.
And I may even travel to Europe next year to back SOF to beat Conduit
Then I’d advise you to stay at home.
Michael Stoute isn’t famous for tilting at windmills, (Conduit being his third winner of the ‘Turf’, though his first 3yo) and the very fact that he stays in training next year is warning enough that the horse has more improvement to come.
As it stands, he is just about the most improved horse in training this season (46lb on official figures), and for a St Leger winner to do what he did in the completely different environs of Santa Anita speaks volumes for his latent class and potential.
At the moment it’s just my opinion, but I’d be fairly certain that SOF, and a number of other classy older horses, won’t see where this horse went, next season.Back in ’05, Giacomo won the Kentucky Derby. Had the race been run in England the fans there would have seen a horse come from off the pace and nail all at the wire. People would have then praised the horse’s acceleration – ‘how he quickened ‘ – and would have then made him favorite for his next outing., but they would have then been left scratching their heads trying to explain why he only won in minor company thereafter.But , thankfully, the race was run at Churchill, and racing fans here knew from the very moment he crossed the wire that probably the best horse hadn’t won – many had gotten involved in a pace dual and just cooked themselves, which left the winner to crawl past exhausted horses . It was Giacomo’s lucky day. Giacomo was then made about 3rd best for the Preakness and it came as a surprise to very few that he didn’t win. Now, I’m not saying that Conduit won’t ever win a Gr1 again , but , imho, there are parallels between the ’05 KD and the ’08 BC Turf.
You heard it here : exercise caution if you’re ever going to back Conduit to beat SOF.
As the St Leger winner, Conduit, was outstanding on the day, it might suggest that the BC Turf was a proper test, but the raft of 10f horses close-up suggests that SOF was done for speed, rather than anything to do with the ground.
Not a proper test ? It certainly was for the Ballydoyle runners.
This was a mile and a half race and the pacesetter , who was closely pursued by SOF, went through the mile marker in rapid time ; top miling time, in fact . Seriously, is there anyone out there who honestly believes that SOF was going to produce a fast final fraction after being asked to do so much hard running early in the race ? If ever a race was set up for the closers this was one. And I may even travel to Europe next year to back SOF to beat Conduit ( I believe they are both staying in training next year, so there is a good chance they’ll meet again ) , because I can’t believe Ballydoyle will get their tactics so badly wrong twice.
One day people will cotton on to what a powerful tool fractional timing actually is .
ClintM
Did your fractionals tell you that Soldier Of Fortune needs a really stiff test at 12f to be seen at his best, and the sharp track and fast ground at Santa Anita made it an examination that was never going to be in his favour?
Far from being a tactically inastute ride, both he and his pacemaker were ridden to give him the best possible chance in near impossible circumstances, and his 4th place finish is testament to how close he would have got – however he was ridden – in those circumstances.Naive is a word that springs to mind. If you think that going through a mile in 1.33 ish is a tactically astute thing to do in a 12 furlong race then I really think that you need to learn more about how racing actually works.
As the St Leger winner, Conduit, was outstanding on the day, it might suggest that the BC Turf was a proper test, but the raft of 10f horses close-up suggests that SOF was done for speed, rather than anything to do with the ground.
Not a proper test ? It certainly was for the Ballydoyle runners.
This was a mile and a half race and the pacesetter , who was closely pursued by SOF, went through the mile marker in rapid time ; top miling time, in fact . Seriously, is there anyone out there who honestly believes that SOF was going to produce a fast final fraction after being asked to do so much hard running early in the race ? If ever a race was set up for the closers this was one. And I may even travel to Europe next year to back SOF to beat Conduit ( I believe they are both staying in training next year, so there is a good chance they’ll meet again ) , because I can’t believe Ballydoyle will get their tactics so badly wrong twice.
One day people will cotton on to what a powerful tool fractional timing actually is .
Reet at the risk of you cutting my head of Soldier of Fortune is probaly the most overrated horse in training. He was hyped up by the bookies when he won what was a race against unfit horse at the start of the season and hasn’t raised a gallop since.
Sorry mate but I think he’s a boat and will never win a good prize mid season to end
Fist
That’s your opinion; his Arc 3rd, off a pace that didn’t suit, suggests it may be mistaken.
SOF ran a fantastic race in the Turf , even if his jockey didn’t ride one….the horse was asked to go through suicidal fractions, and all credit must go to him for not falling completely into a hole.
Run the race again but this time with Murtagh riding a sensible race, and I’m sure the result would be very different.
Ahhhhhh, the advantages of fractional timing.
Unlike a few observers ,I’m not so sure Duke Of Marmalade under performed today.
If one goes back to last season he was finding the likes of Authorized, Ramonti, and Dylan Thomas – genuine Gr 1 horses – a little too hot to handle, but I’d been pretty confident in saying that he hasn’t faced the same level of competition this year , today aside (yes, DOM did slam Youmzain in the King George but the latter’s form reads a lot better when there has been ease in the going ).
Just an opinion, but today’s stronger race found him out.
